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The similarity system

  • #12,101
  • Nov 12, 2014 11:54am Nov 12, 2014 11:54am
Quoting saver0
Here is a screenshot of my latest dash showing me all the possible levels and the probability of it being hit (based on historical data) and also couple of other vital information that helps me decide on trades without even looking at the chart. Please not that I'm showing this as a demonstration of what's possible to inspire you. I will not be sharing this indicator at this time (please don't message me asking for it).
It looks really cool.

Could you explain the mean of each line?
For example: M1 of AUDJPY.

I think about make something this for my own
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #12,102
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:07pm Nov 12, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting saver0
Here is a screenshot of my latest dash showing me all the possible levels and the probability of it being hit (based on historical data) and also couple of other vital information that helps me decide on trades without even looking at the chart. {image} Some of you might see 100% levels and think that those are sure trades. Well, based on history they are, but the future is uncertain. I have seen couple of times where the 100% levels doesn't get hit (and then obviously the probability drops for that level moving forward). I'm still making adjustments...
Looks dashing
Even if you fall on your face, you're still moving forward.
  • #12,103
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:13pm Nov 12, 2014 12:13pm
I can see the light after reading the posts from 286 and following for about five days. I suggest to read and reread and demoing to understand the concept. Honestly it's hard to explain, you have to understand by yourself.

Today I traded eurusd 1m with 100% success with 1-3 pips targets, combining the concept with my style, support, resistances, and price action. Now I would like to apply the idea to higher time frames for more pips

thanks Eurusdd
  • #12,104
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:30pm Nov 12, 2014 12:30pm
well as far as I know the call eurusdd made was wrong... as in the price as of now is below the 98% certainty level - so maybe I'm missing something here or he aint that good a trader
  • #12,105
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:32pm Nov 12, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting monty505
well as far as I know the call eurusdd made was wrong... as in the price as of now is below the 98% certainty level - so maybe I'm missing something here or he aint that good a trader
I think you are missing something 98% confidence is for the price over 1.2440 for the given period
  • #12,106
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:35pm Nov 12, 2014 12:35pm
four hours ago he said "270 mins from now"... i guess half an hour remains, if you really want to count every min
  • #12,107
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:39pm Nov 12, 2014 12:39pm
Quoting monty505
four hours ago he said "270 mins from now"... i guess half an hour remains, if you really want to count every min

if you are using a time frame in which probabilities can occur, your gunna want to count every minute. To not count every minute would not make any sense at all.


people need to remember 98% is not a 100% nor is 99%, even with 99% chance it could theoretically miss 100 times in a row out of a sample of 10,000.
Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #12,108
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:43pm Nov 12, 2014 12:43pm
Mortal after all
  • #12,109
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:52pm Nov 12, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting monty505
Mortal after all
The call was a complete fail.
  • #12,110
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:58pm Nov 12, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting LITEchild
done for the week. good luck y'all. {image}
Could you please explain about the circled numbers in your chart, LITEchild? Thanks a lot!
  • #12,111
  • Nov 12, 2014 12:58pm Nov 12, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting PiratePip
{quote} if you are using a time frame in which probabilities can occur, your gunna want to count every minute. To not count every minute would not make any sense at all. people need to remember 98% is not a 100% nor is 99%, even with 99% chance it could theoretically miss 100 times in a row out of a sample of 10,000.

so if he fails 100 in a row you continue believing those probabilities?

The probs where really wrong. 85% of the days the last low/high is made after 15h, it's very very rare to have the low (last low/high point of the day) at 11:40. So There were much more than 2% probabilites for prices lower than 1.2440. I know that because I'm a probability trader. I dont know how he calculates the probs but in this case they were not good at all.
  • #12,112
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:05pm Nov 12, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting SputnikX
{quote} Could you please explain about the circled numbers in your chart, LITEchild? Thanks a lot!
just another one of my favorite toys is all. lol
  • #12,113
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:06pm Nov 12, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} so if he fails 100 in a row you continue believing those probabilities? The probs where really wrong. 85% of the days the last low/high is made after 15h, it's very very rare to have the low (last low/high point of the day) at 11:40. So There were much more than 2% probabilites for prices lower than 1.2440. I know that because I'm a probability trader. I dont know how he calculates the probs but in this case they were not good at all.

I never said anything about me trading those probabilities. I do believe probabilities generated from my own samples of data though.

I just wanted to remind people how odds and longevity work. even with your example above I could likely find 5 examples in a row where this wasnt the case(regarding h/l being after 15h) and claim your odds are completely Bs and not calculated right just because of the data I am using to pull.

You guys are claiming he is BS off of 3 predictions.... using a method he is obviously still testing since he hasnt shared it...

That comment above was for every one on here wanted spoon fed trades/knwoledge(not knowing any reasoning behind it). Then they get a free trade idea that no one owes them and doesnt work and they all start to claiming Eurusdd is BS? Lol have you guys not read the other 605 pages of gold/predictions & theories??


All you hand out traders have a better chance just going down to your welfare office and beg for hand outs.

Also if you do not like the info being presented here, then LEAVE! espeically if you are making a judgement off of one page of the thread and disregarding the other 605.

Sorry for the rant but just sick of noobs who want to be spoon fed getting one trade wrong and then claiming the whole thread and the man behind it is a bust. These people likely switch systems day to day and wonder why their accounts keep blowing.

Again i say IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE IDEAS PRESENTED IN THE THREAD, THEN LEAVE!!! NO ONE CARES ABOUT YOUR OPINION ON WHY YOU DOUBT THE THREAD!!!!!


Pip
Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #12,114
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:07pm Nov 12, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} so if he fails 100 in a row you continue believing those probabilities? The probs where really wrong. 85% of the days the last low/high is made after 15h, it's very very rare to have the low (last low/high point of the day) at 11:40. So There were much more than 2% probabilites for prices lower than 1.2440. I know that because I'm a probability trader. I dont know how he calculates the probs but in this case they were not good at all.
Interesting observations... thank you.
  • #12,115
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:12pm Nov 12, 2014 1:12pm
M1 Update:

Just took profit on EU, UChf, and currently in AU based on the rules shared yesterday. Trading 18 pairs and there were many other trades overnight. Small losers, and then big winners like this. Overall, profitable day. Working on money mgt now, i.e. how many small losses in a row - can start ramping up in anticipation of a win? Also testing other filters, though I really hate filters - just means the construct isn't correct.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDcttM1.png Size: 55 KB
  • #12,116
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:18pm Nov 12, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} so if he fails 100 in a row you continue believing those probabilities? The probs where really wrong. 85% of the days the last low/high is made after 15h, it's very very rare to have the low (last low/high point of the day) at 11:40. So There were much more than 2% probabilites for prices lower than 1.2440. I know that because I'm a probability trader. I dont know how he calculates the probs but in this case they were not good at all.
Sorry, but you can't count properly
270 mins is 4 hours and 30 minutes.. lol

I'm stacking my Long from 1.2420 and my target just slightly above 1.2440, as a probability trader you really don't know how to read EURUSDD call.. 95% probability price will close > 1.2440, if you need 100% sure probability then you must set your long target bellow that 1.2440... lol and of course your entry must be far down bellow from that too...


MTH
  • #12,117
  • Edited 1:44pm Nov 12, 2014 1:20pm | Edited 1:44pm
Quoting PiratePip
{quote} I never said anything about me trading those probabilities. I do believe probabilities generated from my own samples of data though. I just wanted to remind people how odds and longevity work. even with your example above I could likely find 5 examples in a row where this wasnt the case(regarding h/l being after 15h) and claim your odds are completely Bs and not calculated right just because of the data I am using to pull. You guys are claiming he is BS off of 3 predictions.... using a method he is obviously still testing since he hasnt...

I'm not claiming he's BS, I think TZ has value, just said that those probs were wrong. I'm not a noob if u're claiming that. My probs are correct. Around 80% of the days the last high/low of the day (daiy range settled ) is made >=15h(Pepperstone server).These is based on a large database with thousands of days.
  • #12,118
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:24pm Nov 12, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting Kiads
{quote} Sorry, but you can't count properly 270 mins is 4 hours and 30 minutes.. lol I'm stacking my Long from 1.2420 and my target just slightly above 1.2440, as a probability trader you really don't know how to read EURUSDD call.. 95% probability price will close > 1.2440, if you need 100% sure probability then you must set your long target bellow that 1.2440... lol and of course your entry must be far down bellow from that too... MTH
mmm so the call was correct? 98% the price was supposed to close above 1.2440, after 270 min since his post. It closed below when that time elapsed. It was wrong, no problem, everybody can fail.
  • #12,119
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:26pm Nov 12, 2014 1:26pm
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} I'm not claiming he's BS, I think TZ has value, just said that those probs were wrong. I'm not a noob if u're claiming that. My probs are correct. Around 80% of the days the last high/low of the day (daiy range settled ) is made >=15h.These is based on a large database with thousands of days.
I wasnt directing that at you(your poke just got me frustrated ). Mostly Monty, claiming "he is not that good of a trader?" also saying "am i missing something?" its like uh yeah your missing 605 pages of information! Next time read all the information given about some ones trading before making an opinion on it.

Eurusdd has put up multiple trade explorers in the past showing ridiculous gains with the information provided. The idea's in this thread work, most of the people who visit the thread dont.

Pip
Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #12,120
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:33pm Nov 12, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting PiratePip
{quote} I wasnt directing that at you(your poke just got me frustrated ). Mostly Monty, claiming "he is not that good of a trader?" also saying "am i missing something?" its like uh yeah your missing 605 pages of information! Next time read all the information given about some ones trading before making an opinion on it. Eurusdd has put up multiple trade explorers in the past showing ridiculous gains with the information provided. The idea's in this thread work, most of the people who visit the thread dont. Pip
I dont want to attack Eurusd, just debating the probs, I can help people and him to test and calculate accurate probabilities.
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