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  • #261
  • Nov 10, 2014 3:28pm Nov 10, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting gspajon
I broke my discipline...PUBLICALLY....
Hey man don't let that PUBLIC thing have an effect on your ego... it's a killer. You're not in the dock, and you've committed no crime.

You are however in a tremendous winning trade that you are protecting from this markets unrelentingly capricious nature. It's all good.

This is what I've been up to:

USDJPY

Price stalling all morning down @S1, took the risk to jump in as it pulled back to WP with a basic SR swap.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EURUSD

I was concentrating on the Yen trade so missed the 1st potential signal, hesitated at the SR swap (fear), then shorted the break.

Original TP was the DP too but now chancing my arm (greed) and looking for a bit more.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #262
  • Nov 10, 2014 3:56pm Nov 10, 2014 3:56pm
Hello all and thank you GS for starting this great thread.. I've been Lurking since you began (old IRC term for watching without joining)..

I am a raw rookie (3 months on live account) and dirt dog poor but this trading style (and scalping) seem to be where I do my best with Forex.. so I'm not able to offer any insight or contributions.. I'm simply here soaking up what I see and trying to learn more from those who know more.

I didn't want to be a lurker so this is to let you know I'm here.. and thanks all for the great help and insights I've already received..

Chaz-e
  • #263
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:20pm Nov 10, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting Chaz-e
Hello all and thank you GS for starting this great thread.. I've been Lurking since you began (old IRC term for watching without joining).. I am a raw rookie (3 months on live account) and dirt dog poor but this trading style (and scalping) seem to be where I do my best with Forex.. so I'm not able to offer any insight or contributions.. I'm simply here soaking up what I see and trying to learn more from those who know more. I didn't want to be a lurker so this is to let you know I'm here.. and thanks all for the great help and insights I've already...
Thank you for your confidence Chaz-e. There are many here who are (IMHO) contributing much and providing the benefit of their experience as well, I think we should all thank them for their participation as well. If you are a "rookie" I would offer you this suggestion. STOP TRADING LIVE for right now. Use this process to gather your own statistics and develop a solid trading method with accurate statistics. This process will take some time, but will save you many hours of head banging, and much $$.

This thread can show you how using probability works well in not only finding winning trade but also limiting loss on losing trades. I would encourage you to start a journal and learn how to use a spread sheet. Start documenting what works in your journal. Use that journal to develop and create a trading method. Then use your spread sheet and start recording statistics. From those statistics you can calculate the probability of your method. Then start forward testing it (in demo to start) to form your rules. Again, keep track of each and every trade, use your journal to record why you entered...why you exited...why you did what you did, the way you did it. Again use that process to adjust the rules...again this will take time...when you have something you can substantiate with clear probabilities, AND you have a clear rule set to exploit those probabilities...you will then be ready to start live trading...

Soon afterward you will discover the "discipline" part of trading, ie. sticking to the rules you just spent so much time testing and refining. Good luck and please feel free to ask any questions you feel need clarification.
  • #264
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:26pm Nov 10, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting Quidsey
... EURUSD I was concentrating on the Yen trade so missed the 1st potential signal, hesitated at the SR swap (fear), then shorted the break. Original TP was the DP too but now chancing my arm (greed) and looking for a bit more. {image}
Nice trade Quidsey...it looks picture perfect to me, where you eventually entered. Congrats, it looks like you have a runner.
  • #265
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:28pm Nov 10, 2014 4:28pm
Thank you GS for your concern.. I wasn't too clear in my post about being a rookie.. I simply didn't want anyone thinking I'm here to show you people how to get rich in three trades.. HA.. I ran Demo accounts for over a year and went live last July.. I haven't yet joined the 90% who wipe out there accounts but there were a few weeks when I certainly thought I had messed up beyond repair.. luck was with me and I recovered back to my original balance and that is creeping up daily now..

I am a day trader and scalp between longer trades when I see the setup..

As for the discipline.. where were you a year ago when I started? HA.. man I could have used that advice when I wiped out 50% of a demo account. ahhahahaha

Thanks so much GS for responding.. and yes, discipline is my weakest part.. I need serious work with that and your trading style here is actually calming to me.. the people joining in with you are awesome and that calms me even more..

The only reason I joined and spoke was because I give credit to those who deserve credit .. and you and those in here with you deserve that credit..

Thanks again.. and I'll be watching often.. just yell and I can poke my head in the door anytime

Chaz
  • #266
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:32pm Nov 10, 2014 4:32pm
Quidsey and Buk. I thank you for your understanding. I am beating myself up over the issue of discipline. I also want everyone following this to know that everyone has their moments of fear and greed. I am suffering from the former (fear) as we speak after suffering from the later (greed), on Thursday.

I have spent so much time trying to refine a good trading method, and as you can see I do have one that works well. My issue is (and looks like it will forever be) myself. This has nothing to do with the markets! And this is a claim made by many here....your success or failure is independent of what the markets do. It is one's ability to stay disciplined that makes you successful. Usually these little lapses are better learned in private. (Like falling off a dock looking at the pretty fishies...the first thing you do when you surface is to look around to see if anyone was watching).

So enough already...it is past and I will move on and be better disciplined...as it says in my theme..."failure creates discipline"...
  • #267
  • Nov 10, 2014 8:24pm Nov 10, 2014 8:24pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Hey Ken,...Nice catch this pair does indeed look like its ranging... I would direct your attention to the last two obvious lows on the daily chart you have posted here. It almost looks like a head and shoulders is trying to form. Looking back a little further, it looks like this pair has a propensity to range over the past year and seems especially fond of the false break (lower). Only the middle of the year did it look like a trend. My plan would be: If range trading; trade it from the bottom up. Because of the obvious and fairly clear...
Hi gspajon.

How strange it is that 2 traders can have such a different take on the same chart. Let me explain my reasoning on the GBCHF that I posted.

I considered that it was a proven range, but to my eyes, as it had already tried on a couple of occasions to break low, and had managed it before retracing back into the range, that the likelihood is that the low boundary of the range was weaker. I also saw that it had struggled to make a higher high forming a double top in Sept 2013. Then it did make quite nice H-Hs to the top of the "range"
I dont normally trade ranges anyway, but your acute observations have made it even less likely..........lol

Many thanks for your input.
  • #268
  • Nov 11, 2014 7:04am Nov 11, 2014 7:04am
Quoting ken911
{quote} Hi gspajon. How strange it is that 2 traders can have such a different take on the same chart....
And thus a market is made. Two traders look at the same thing and come to different conclusions. One buys, the other sells, and viola! a market. Nothing that I've said should make you believe my opinion is more "valid" than yours.

In fact I would never dare say you are "wrong" I only state how I would approach trading the market you posted. I do this from the stand point of probabilities. However, none of my probabilities are 100% correct.

It is only that I will discipline myself to take ONLY those trades that represent greater probability of success (up to a certain point). To me, anything else is just gambling.
  • #269
  • Nov 11, 2014 1:56pm Nov 11, 2014 1:56pm
Update EUR/USD:

This trade is all but over. Just missed the stop out point by a few pips. I really don't expect tomorrow to drop significantly without first rising through my stop.

Not a terrible trade but could've been better using discipline....lesson learned.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #270
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:52pm Nov 11, 2014 8:52pm
I am short UJ sl 115.85 1st tgt 114
  • #271
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:29am Nov 12, 2014 7:29am
updated EUR/USD:

I have moved the stop on this trade down to lock 203 pips...it is about as tight as I can make it...I fully expect that I will be stopped out very soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #272
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:39am Nov 12, 2014 7:39am
Admin Note: I will be conspicuously absent in coming days. I have family issues to attend that require me to be with my parents. I will be checking and posting on this board maybe once a week, and will switch my trading to the weekly chart so as to allow more time to be with family.

Please continue the momentum here...you are all doing so well.
  • #273
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:38am Nov 13, 2014 9:38am
A look at the EUR/USD hourly chart. Sometimes the biggest frustration in the market is that it just won't make up its mind which way it wants to go...one thing is for sure...the market will almost always find your stop, no matter where you put it.

I moved the stop down a couple of pips on this trade to just above yesterday's high. Inside this ranging market you could make a case for a bullish trade, as well as a bearish trade...this is what confuses me the most, and is why I have moved out to larger time frames. With the clarity of a bearish trend on the daily/weekly charts, I am thinking that any bullish trend on the lower time frames will be just a retrace that should eventually break down and resume the larger (underlying) trend.

However, IF a lower time frame does create a reversal situation. It will do so with plenty of warning and what looks like utter confusion on the lower time frames.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade1-10.png Size: 19 KB
  • #274
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:53am Nov 13, 2014 9:53am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting gspajon
Admin Note: I will be conspicuously absent in coming days. I have family issues to attend that require me to be with my parents. I will be checking and posting on this board maybe once a week, and will switch my trading to the weekly chart so as to allow more time to be with family. Please continue the momentum here...you are all doing so well.
Hello GS. My apologies for a no-call no-show this week. I tend to do that from time to time. I read your post about the EU & have the same exact thoughts. I've actually been stalking this quasi reversal since last Fridays NFP's & have a myriad of buys open from different levels & timeframes. The trade has changed, the patterns have changed & now stalled. It's the damnedest thing. I've even allowed myself to cuss it a time or two this week. I could have taken nice profits a time or two as well. I've kept the stop about 10 points below the monthly low. It's driving me insane & when i get out of character I get out of character. I'm sure you can understand.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #275
  • Nov 13, 2014 12:20pm Nov 13, 2014 12:20pm
Quoting gspajon
A look at the EUR/USD hourly chart. Sometimes the biggest frustration in the market is that it just won't make up its mind which way it wants to go...
Yes, EU consolidating and ranging in a triangle at the moment. A breakout lower could see the trend continue to 1.23, BO higher and we could see a retest of the monthly pivot 1.2630.
Nothing for me at the moment.
A false break is of course not out of the question.

The weekly candle summing it up nicely for the moment I think.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #276
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:04pm Nov 13, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting eggs
{quote} Hello GS. My apologies for a no-call no-show this week. I tend to do that from time to time. I read your post about the EU & have the same exact thoughts. I've actually been stalking this quasi reversal since last Fridays NFP's & have a myriad of buys open from different levels & timeframes. The trade has changed, the patterns have changed & now stalled. It's the damnedest thing. I've even allowed myself to cuss it a time or two this week. I could have taken nice profits a time or two as well. I've kept the stop about 10...
no apologies necessary. With my time limited of late I have just decided to slowly tighten stops until stopped out or a continuation break. I will then monitor the next retrace.
  • #277
  • Nov 14, 2014 6:43am Nov 14, 2014 6:43am
Hi, Quidsey. Could you share your indicators?

I also strongly believe that pivot points are objective and essential as SR levels.

My chart time zone also GMT +2, however I use universal time (EST from midnight to midnignt) for calculating my pivots.

May I ask you, how do you analyze price action according to weekly and monthly pivots? A little bit complicated for me to take in a count all of this levels (daily, weekly, monthly).

If you find useful here are my indicators below.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Market_Open_Lines_1.ex4   7 KB | 272 downloads
File Type: ex4 Pivot Point Confluence.ex4   57 KB | 313 downloads
File Type: mq4 Pivot Point Confluence.mq4   34 KB | 290 downloads
File Type: ex4 xPivotMultiday_v1.31.ex4   30 KB | 263 downloads
File Type: ex4 Market_Open_Lines c.ex4   7 KB | 291 downloads
  • #278
  • Nov 14, 2014 6:59am Nov 14, 2014 6:59am
[quote=Quidsey;7869470]{quote} Yes, EU consolidating and ranging in a triangle at the moment. A breakout lower could see the trend continue to 1.23, BO higher and we could see a retest of the monthly pivot 1.2630. Nothing for me at the moment. A false break is of course not out of the question. The weekly candle summing it up nicely for the moment I think.

Hello
still inside the triangle, but the end of it is coming, just a matter of time.. i expect 1.2240 and 1.2150 ...but i am biased, so don´t take it too seriously !!


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #279
  • Nov 14, 2014 10:54am Nov 14, 2014 10:54am
Finally stopped with a 212 pip profit on EU. On the road right now so I can't post a chart. But profit is showing well so far...I am still short Gold but that has many....MANY more weeks before we see anything interesting on that. I am currently monitoring for the next trade...
  • #280
  • Nov 14, 2014 10:59am Nov 14, 2014 10:59am
Quoting Sacaric
Hi, Quidsey. Could you share your indicators? I also strongly believe that pivot points are objective and essential as SR levels. My chart time zone also GMT +2, however I use universal time (EST from midnight to midnignt) for calculating my pivots. May I ask you, how do you analyze price action according to weekly and monthly pivots? A little bit complicated for me to take in a count all of this levels (daily, weekly, monthly). If you find useful here are my indicators below. {file} {file} {file} {file} {file}
Hello sacaric...I would appreciate an indicator free zone on this thread...while I cannot prevent it the point of this thread is to keep things as the title suggests....simple-uncomplicated-obvious.

Sharing indicators can be done on other threads or via private message. If you know how to "see" levels in the market (a skill I am still working on) you will find the use of pivots, Fibonacci, and other "arbitrary" levels to be superfluous. The better and more useful skill is learning to "see" where traders are buying and selling and recognizing that in the price action, such as the current level in EUR/USD...lots of transactions going on and definitely a level to pay attention to...

Or if you have a question...ask, there are many here (including myself) that will be happy to answer as soon as we find time.
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