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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #10,721
  • Nov 10, 2014 2:09am Nov 10, 2014 2:09am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Trying to put this lesson together mentally first before I present it to you but I wanted first get a sense on your take on the market. What is your basic premise on what the market is? What are your beliefs? Is the market completely random? Can a trader actually have advance insight as to what might happen next? Can one forecast with extreme accuracy the future path of price? Give me your take on these challenging questions and this will help me with how best to present what I would like to accomplish this week.
What is your basic premise on what the market is? What are your beliefs?
For me, the forex market is just like a physical marketplace where an enormous amount of people gather to either buy or sell products.

Is the market completely random?
The very first time I looked at a market chart, it did seem random to me, but as time passed I have seen that it isn't entirely the case. I believe that fear and greed are major factors in market movement, and as far as I know, fear and greed aren't random. As price approaches a certain level, these emotions will build up and the actions from those emotions will cause price to move accordingly. I think this is why familiar movements such as the impulse-pullback-continuation (which is simply AB=CD/ABCD) movements exist.

Can a trader actually have advance insight as to what might happen next?
I think it is possible by looking at price, where it has been, and where it has reacted. I haven't been good at this though. My trades have always been based on late reaction in the attempts to follow the dance (which pretty much ends up always reversing on me).

Can one forecast with extreme accuracy the future path of price?
Before I started reading through this thread, I really don't know the answer, since forecasting and expectations are pretty bold statements. I have read from certain resources that it is never good to predict the market with your analysis. Reactive trading was always being put above predictive trading, but I guess this reactive trading is just another word for 'retail trading'.

After going through the material here though, I pretty much can say 'Yes'.
  • #10,722
  • Edited 3:40am Nov 10, 2014 2:26am | Edited 3:40am
Current look on EURUSD, 20 minutes past London Open.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (100 Tick) 11_10_2014 (1).png Size: 72 KB


UPDATE: Entered short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (100 Tick) 11_10_2014 (2).png Size: 79 KB


UPDATE: Stopped out at -20.
  • #10,723
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:19am Nov 10, 2014 5:19am
Hi , guys!

Great system. What I like about it is that a trader is prepared for every possible scenario - where to enter, where to BE, where to take profit depending on the ratios and the patterns. And everything can changes depending on what you see and what actual pattern develops. NO other system on FF has that kind of guidance and certainty. I always had problems with other systems about targets and entries...

ANYWAYS, here is a question for you:

Looking at GU H1, do you think the setup qualifies for a possible AB=CD (with possible Gartley)? If so, is an aggressive C advisable right now looking at how the PA has paused/been rejected?

Thank you in advance for your help!
  • #10,724
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:27am Nov 10, 2014 5:27am
Remember the chart from last night? The last leg had not reached when I posted look at it now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (233 Tick) 11_10_2014.jpg Size: 129 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #10,725
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:40am Nov 10, 2014 5:40am
What is your basic premise on what the market is?
In regards to any financial market, my premise is that the market is a place of OPPORTUNITY. It provides the opportunity to make money. I have never met anyone that said they trade FOREX or stocks just to kill time or because they were board. Simple fact is, we are all here to make money!
What are your beliefs?
I believe that the science of trading can be learned and that is why I have continued to hone my trading skills. I believe that I don't have to follow what the big boys (banks / hedge funds) are doing. The market tells you what its going to do, you just have to learn its language.
Is the market completely random?
NOPE! Again, we just need to learn to speak its language. The market tells us all the time what it is going to do.
Can a trader actually have advance insight as to what might happen next? Can one forecast with extreme accuracy the future path of price?
Absolutely! You have been showing us since the day you created this thread that we can forecast the market to a pretty accurate degree. The proof is in the pudding!
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #10,726
  • Nov 10, 2014 7:39am Nov 10, 2014 7:39am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Remember the chart from last night? The last leg had not reached when I posted look at it now. {image}
Yes, the accuracy of these harmonic swings is amazing to see at times.
  • #10,727
  • Nov 10, 2014 9:03am Nov 10, 2014 9:03am
Quoting YoungCroc
Current look on EURUSD, 20 minutes past London Open. {image} UPDATE: Entered short. {image} UPDATE: Stopped out at -20.
Reentered EU short with a win. Pays to be persistent on looking at the charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (100 Tick) 11_10_2014 (3).png Size: 83 KB


I could have continued holding on the trade since the order flow is with the bears but I was too exhausted and sleepy to continue trading. Just had to press the close button.
  • #10,728
  • Nov 10, 2014 9:05am Nov 10, 2014 9:05am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Remember the chart from last night? The last leg had not reached when I posted look at it now. {image}
WHOAA!!
AMAZING...
Clean
  • #10,729
  • Nov 10, 2014 9:52am Nov 10, 2014 9:52am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Trying to put this lesson together mentally first before I present it to you but I wanted first get a sense on your take on the market. What is your basic premise on what the market is? What are your beliefs? Is the market completely random? Can a trader actually have advance insight as to what might happen next? Can one forecast with extreme accuracy the future path of price? Give me your take on these challenging questions and this will help me with how best to present what I would like to accomplish this week.


Mr Pip

My take on the market is a place where buying and selling takes place, when there is more demand for a goods or services price will go up. When buying dries up price tends to drop, to a level where buyers are happy are happy to buy again and take price higher and visa versa.

Before I read this thread, I had a totally different way of thinking, that the price would retreat to a demand/supply level where one party would either take price higher/ lower. But I did not realise that the swings could be measured and then projected into the future with accuracy to where price would retreat, pullback or even a complete reversal. Also that there are clues that a price is strengthening or weaking, via pull backs etc.

Regards
Aj1
  • #10,730
  • Nov 10, 2014 10:42am Nov 10, 2014 10:42am
Quoting YoungCroc
{quote} Reentered EU short with a win. Pays to be persistent on looking at the charts. {image} I could have continued holding on the trade since the order flow is with the bears but I was too exhausted and sleepy to continue trading. Just had to press the close button.
Nice trade and congrats on this one, good explanation, good execution, just fascinating , thanks for sharing
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #10,731
  • Nov 10, 2014 11:27am Nov 10, 2014 11:27am
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} Nice trade and congrats on this one, good explanation, good execution, just fascinating , thanks for sharing
Thanks and no problem. I always try to be as comprehensive as possible with my charts.

Won't be trading anymore but I'll leave a chart on my exercise on expectation on EU.
*Yawns. Gah. Will be sleeping now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (100 Tick) 11_10_2014 (4).png Size: 71 KB
  • #10,732
  • Nov 10, 2014 4:01pm Nov 10, 2014 4:01pm
Current trade that I am in. Short AU 5M. The first chart is the long term order flow, it retracted to the 61.8 so looking for a big ABCD pattern. Price was also at a good S/R zone. The second chart shows my entry. It was on the pullback to the 50 fib on the short term orderflow, so for the entry pattern is an AB=CD. Knowing the long term order flow, I was expecting price to continue past my PRZ. Once price made it into my PRZ it didn't show any sign of wanting to reverse, so I let it run.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM15.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM5.png Size: 37 KB
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #10,733
  • Nov 10, 2014 6:41pm Nov 10, 2014 6:41pm
Don't do much counter trend trading. But this one I would have jumped on. I barely missed the setup, but not gonna go chase this trade. Gonna keep an eye on it to see if my expectations are correct. The BE is the 38.2 and the TP is the 61.8 of the CD leg. The TP is also in a pretty solid structure area, so it would make sense to have a turning point there. Well see.

EDIT: Added the purple line to shows a huge decrease in momentum from the previous to legs. Further confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.png Size: 79 KB
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #10,734
  • Nov 10, 2014 8:29pm Nov 10, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting DizzleFX
Don't do much counter trend trading. But this one I would have jumped on. I barely missed the setup, but not gonna go chase this trade. Gonna keep an eye on it to see if my expectations are correct. The BE is the 38.2 and the TP is the 61.8 of the CD leg. The TP is also in a pretty solid structure area, so it would make sense to have a turning point there. Well see. EDIT: Added the purple line to shows a huge decrease in momentum from the previous to legs. Further confirmation. {image}
Nice analysis. My expectation from the decreased momentum down would be a retrace of at least the 38.2 of CD. Also, price failed to form a NSL so we have a nice double-bottom.
  • #10,735
  • Nov 10, 2014 9:30pm Nov 10, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting YoungCroc
{quote} Nice analysis. My expectation from the decreased momentum down would be a retrace of at least the 38.2 of CD. Also, price failed to form a NSL so we have a nice double-bottom.
Thanks man. That fail at the NSL would have been my entry area. I would have at least been at BE with that trade by now.
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #10,736
  • Nov 11, 2014 4:54pm Nov 11, 2014 4:54pm
Wow, I guess there is no interest! I guess everyone knows and are trading at a profitable level. No need to continue then?????? Where is the Structure, order flow and bar by bar????????
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #10,737
  • Nov 11, 2014 5:10pm Nov 11, 2014 5:10pm
Mr pips

ive read so many of your posts in forums such as forex-tsd
im a big fan of harmonics and ratios
also i like what you do too

pls bare with me i have over 500 pages to read in this forum but am def very interested in your posts
  • #10,738
  • Nov 11, 2014 5:55pm Nov 11, 2014 5:55pm
Mr. Pip.

I apologize if it doesn't seem so but I am definitely interested. I have been practicing your teachings on order flow, structure, and expectations. I submit charts of my trades and analysis as much as possible when I have the time. I definitely did notice a better performance in my trading but I'm not sure if I'm doing things right and if it is your way of trading. That is the purpose of me posting my charts; to become a better trader through the benefit of your feedback. I definitely don't need to be spoonfed but at the same time I just need a little nudge and nod to know if I am trading in the right direction.

This is all I guess. Thanks and Good luck always on your trading.
  • #10,739
  • Nov 11, 2014 5:56pm Nov 11, 2014 5:56pm
Hello Mr.Pip

Here is something I'm looking at on the Hourly (GBPUSD). Sorry for the mess on the chart

Set Up: ABCD Pattern (Complex Pullback in a Bearish market)
L/T Order Flow: Definatley Bearish. My kill zone completes below the last source of the NSL which is encouraging.
Structure: Kill Zone is in an area of interest. I would label it as an area of challenge. Previous Demand area of a consolidation area can provide an area of selling upon pullback on a breakout. The question I probable should ask myself is; Why would longs take profit at this area and why would shorts, short at this area???
Bar by Bar: Price hasn't reached my kill zone yet. But because of the strength from the bulls in the current leg, I'll be looking for some deceleration in price or weakness so I can countinue with the trend. A couple of rejections with some follow up or a weak retest would be nice to decelerate price.

I'll update on completion with targets and stop placement.

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/QlNwn.png
  • #10,740
  • Nov 11, 2014 6:00pm Nov 11, 2014 6:00pm
i
Quoting devontrader
Mr pips ive read so many of your posts in forums such as forex-tsd im a big fan of harmonics and ratios also i like what you do too pls bare with me i have over 500 pages to read in this forum but am def very interested in your posts
I've never posted anywhere but here. Someone must be hijacking content.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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