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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #15,921
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:42am Nov 11, 2014 10:42am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Thanks for your response. However, my post was directed more to those trying to trade GBPJPY short over past several hours. But your response seems more to indicate your view is to stand aside, rather than try and pick a direction. I respect that, even if I don't agree with it.
Hey, no qualms. It takes a different kind of guts to hold trades for weeks on end...especially the ones to 1k + pips where you go through all the noise and not react. Much respect to those. I hope one day I can do that, kinda harder if you cant hedge in the US. Thanks for the polite response as well
  • #15,922
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:54am Nov 11, 2014 10:54am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hey, no qualms. It takes a different kind of guts to hold trades for weeks on end...especially the ones to 1k + pips where you go through all the noise and not react. Much respect to those. I hope one day I can do that, kinda harder if you cant hedge in the US. Thanks for the polite response as well
Actually, I think in respect to comfort level in terms of time frames for holding trades, we are on the same page. I usually don't hold over the weekend...
  • #15,923
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:08am Nov 11, 2014 11:08am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Now as I think about it, you are right. Even more, I think I am probably not wealthy enough to trade, which might be a big reason for not getting anywhere with it.
I don't think wealth is the key. If you have even small account, lets say $150, you can still trade.

Example with an average 1:5 R:R

Average risk of $5 to make $25 on each trade.

Win 10 trades, lose 30 trades, net profit of $100, which is a gain of over 65%.

Of course, you can't have all 30 losses in a row.

If you are losing more than a few trades in a row before you get a winner to at least break even, something his seriously wrong with your approach (my opinion).

But you need to have the confidence that you can get yourself back on track after losses. You should always be only a few winning trades away from growing your equity. Otherwise, it's a constant battle to dig out of a hole. Not fun.

I will repeat what I believe is the key to trading successfully (in terms of strategically entering/exiting trades, and managing opening trades). Know how to read signs that the price is reversing. Once you learn this, your confidence level will increase a hundred fold.

Anyway, sorry for the long post. Back to GBPJPY. Some will say, you need to be very experienced to trade this pair. I say, it's the perfect pair to learn on (okay I'm crazy, I know). Perfect to learn, since there is plenty of price movement on the lower time frames, which I also believe are the best time frames to learn on, i.e. M15-H4. I would never recommend anyone trade D1 or higher if they are inexperienced, since it will take so much longer to learn...
  • #15,924
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:09am Nov 11, 2014 11:09am
Quoting BenderTrader
Shorted the Geppy at around 181.75 - sitting with major loss now What do you guys think?
I am basically in the same boat as you, [email protected], I don't know how you trade but I've traded this pair almost everyday for a year.some may disagree with me but two things I know are true.1) obviously this thing runs BIG! 2)risk aversion is always right around the corner. So I NEVER close my shorts from risk on elevated levels which is where we are now. I fight the DD in two ways, because the ADR is so big I always open a hedge long after being down 150 pips. And because knowing going in that this thing can get away from you in a hurry I trade smaller position sizes so I can ride it out til it turns. I'm not the greatest tech analyst but I only use that basically for knowing when to close my hedges. Is risk aversion close? Not at the moment, could it break 184.30 today? Sure....but look at the backdrop, equities at all time highs,BOJ eased yes, but it was just the surprise factor this time.BOE tonight,ruble problems that may spill over.its just my 2cents that this will see 175.00-180.00 again soon. I guess what I'm trying to say with all my ramblings are if you are prepared you will get through anything. I watch this thread everyday and there are great traders in here, I just figured I would post once instead of just lurking.
  • #15,925
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:16am Nov 11, 2014 11:16am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I don't think wealth is the key. If you have even small account, lets say $150, you can still trade. Example with an average 1:5 R:R Average risk of $5 to make $25 on each trade. Win 10 trades, lose 30 trades, net profit of $100, which is a gain of over 65%. Of course, you can't have all 30 losses in a row. If you are losing more than a few trades in a row before you get a winner to at least break even, something his seriously wrong with your approach (my opinion). But you need to have the confidence that you can get yourself back on track...
I just figured out that I can hardly get the setups I want with that. Let's say you trade the break out 184.30 with 0.01 lot you just cannot have a 300 pip SL, which would be reasonable for such a swing trade.
You are not the only one who recommends GBP/JPY to learn on, but probably the first recommending lower TFs, because most traders say: Get away from the low timeframes with all the noise ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,926
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:45am Nov 11, 2014 11:45am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I just figured out that I can hardly get the setups I want with that. Let's say you trade the break out 184.30 with 0.01 lot you just cannot have a 300 pip SL, which would be reasonable for such a swing trade. You are not the only one who recommends GBP/JPY to learn on, but probably the first recommending lower TFs, because most traders say: Get away from the low timeframes with all the noise ...
If you DO decide that longer term is the way you want to trade, and primarily trade D1 time frame, I believe a break out of inside bar is the best kind of trade to take. So, if this price does break out (i.e. a NY daily close above 184.3) then I'd agree it's a good trade. But the SL would need to be below the open price of the mother bar, in my opinion...

But if the SL is too big (as you seemed to allude to in your post), then the only choice I'd think you'd have is smaller SL on smaller time frames. If the break out occurs, then you have your trade direction. Just drill down to small time frames, and buy the pull-backs, but again, this goes back to my recommendation of learning how to spot reversals (if you haven't learned this yet).

For example, on this latest bullish push, on the H1/H4 time frame, I entered on a 30 pip SL, and am now up 9 times my risk and have moved my SL to in profit TP. You can do the same thing on a break out, wait for the pull-back and enter on the reversal. Hope this helps...
  • #15,927
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:00pm Nov 11, 2014 12:00pm
Stopped out on the short from last week overnight. I saw the candle print on the 4H yesterday chose to hang in but I did lower the stops to just above the npf spike,just in case it was due to the lack activity, bad choice Icould have closed both positions for a 4% profit instead we print a1% loss, which is nothing compared to the gain on the previous run up. My point in posting the loss, I dont win every trade even being longer term than most and even being long term I dont let losers run. 20% in such a small move is way to much leverage, way to much and one has to cut loss well before or you wont be around long enough to succeed.
  • #15,928
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:01pm Nov 11, 2014 12:01pm
Daily Par SAR signals more shorts on this pair....
  • #15,929
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:13pm Nov 11, 2014 12:13pm
In a 40-50 pip range right now. In my opinion good for both long and short trades. Closed my long positions, and am short right now, but if it breaks out of range, I'll change direction to long. if it drops 40-50 pips, Ill TP and go long...
  • #15,930
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:19pm Nov 11, 2014 12:19pm
SL is 183.93. I'm not saying anyone should follow my trades. Unless you're comfortable watching the trade on lower time frames, and managing it accordingly. Currently watching M1...
  • #15,931
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:38pm Nov 11, 2014 12:38pm
184.20 will open more way to the upside
  • #15,932
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:42pm Nov 11, 2014 12:42pm
Don't understand anyone looking for shorts on this pair - look to the left there is nothing SR wise til abt 88 and we just had a huge outside day - yeah it might turn on tje BRN but it just as likely will blast thru it - Now I said that watch it tank LOL.
  • #15,933
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:43pm Nov 11, 2014 12:43pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Schickeria, Sometimes, with sh8tty broker, can still get good entries. Too bad, was sleeping, nicely done. I look weekly/monthly for importance. Still have valid patterns/levels, but sometimes need time and room. GJ, same ole, same ole, posted here before. {image} {image}
always good for some pips.

S/O on GEPPY with one long term position.

cashed USDJPY for 58+ Pips. rest of position stil short
  • #15,934
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:55pm Nov 11, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting BenderTrader
184.20 will open more way to the upside
Yep, agreed. Approaching key area. Bulls look strong...

Not going short on lower time frames anymore the way things are looking. Long all the way, unless I see a U-turn on H1 or H4...


Edit: Chart is M5, looking like a break out of bull flag, and I'll trade in directions of arrows, adding to positions if price comes back. The short pointing arrows are more hypothetical, and not thinking they'll come into play. We'll see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5.png Size: 53 KB
  • #15,935
  • Nov 11, 2014 1:06pm Nov 11, 2014 1:06pm
Lets see if 184.20 is broken...if not we could be on the way down - this is the line in the sand

A break now of 183.45 will signal weakness for now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1.png Size: 33 KB
  • #15,936
  • Nov 11, 2014 1:15pm Nov 11, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting BenderTrader
Lets see if 184.20 is broken...if not we could be on the way down - this is the line in the sand A break now of 183.45 will signal weakness for now{image}
Sounds like the safe way to trade. The way I trade breakouts is to anticipate trade direction and get in early.

Easier for me to set SL that way, and less risk, pip wise. But just my way, I respect anyone who "waits".

Earlier I saw hesitation on the lower time frames. I do not see that now, so I'm long all the way baby

Unless I see a U-turn. Bulls are too excited right now, they can smell "bear blood"...

Ha ha, just a little fun. But we'll see what happens...
  • #15,937
  • Nov 11, 2014 1:19pm Nov 11, 2014 1:19pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Sounds like the safe way to trade. The way I trade breakouts is to anticipate trade direction and get in early. Easier for me to set SL that way, and less risk, pip wise. But just my way, I respect anyone who "waits". Earlier I saw hesitation on the lower time frames. I do not see that now, so I'm long all the way baby Unless I see a U-turn. Bulls are too excited right now, they can smell "bear blood"... Ha ha, just a little fun. But we'll see what happens...

Interesting, I am a bit new to this pair after having traded USD based pairs for years so lets c )

Nice thread here
  • #15,938
  • Edited 1:36pm Nov 11, 2014 1:26pm | Edited 1:36pm
sure is some weird PA right now. been gone today so just now lookin for a trade and think I will stay on the side ATM

Edit: it is the geppy so "normal"
  • #15,939
  • Nov 11, 2014 1:34pm Nov 11, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting BenderTrader
{quote} Interesting, I am a bit new to this pair after having traded USD based pairs for years so lets c ) Nice thread here
Okay. Maybe this will take longer than anticipated

Short term, bulls still have a slight edge, but fell back into consolidation...

Of course, as long as it stays decisively above 183.123 and we have a NY daily close above this, I think we'll eventually see a very strong move up, since it will have closed above the mother bar of the inside bar situation. Many bulls would view this as a break out opportunity. Plus bull flag on H4, which would seem to point up as well...

Okay, maybe we should just leave it at this:

  • #15,940
  • Nov 11, 2014 1:43pm Nov 11, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting AllyB
sure is some weird PA right now. been gone today so just now lookin for a trade and think I will stay on the side ATM Edit: it is the geppy so "normal"
HI ally

Yep it's created a nice little consolidation range here. Good day to sit on our hands and find out what the market wants. Back to trend or another wind up for the run first.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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