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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #15,901
  • Nov 11, 2014 6:38am Nov 11, 2014 6:38am
About 20 % loss on equity at the moment
  • #15,902
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:15am Nov 11, 2014 8:15am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} hourly {image}
Hi FX-Ray,

Don't know if helps or hurts. Anyway, would have preferred the 78.6 level if we had two equal waves down, otherwise prefer this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1111.jpg Size: 234 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #15,903
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:16am Nov 11, 2014 8:16am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} next USDJPY 116.199 next GBPJPY 184.169 if targets don't hold
Hi Schickeria,

Sometimes, with sh8tty broker, can still get good entries. Too bad, was sleeping, nicely done. I look weekly/monthly for importance. Still have valid patterns/levels, but sometimes need time and room.

GJ, same ole, same ole, posted here before.
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1111.jpg Size: 178 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYMonthly1111.jpg Size: 167 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #15,904
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:43am Nov 11, 2014 8:43am
Quoting BenderTrader
About 20 % loss on equity at the moment
First off no-one knows where this will go next so you need to cover both possibilities.
Options are.

1. Take the hit and refund your account with another 20% - put it down to cost of learning.
2. Open an equal trade long and watch.
3. If price carries on up with main trend add to the long - AT THE RIGHT TIME.
4. If it goes down close the short at be or better and wait for the long to come into profit.

Nb - all of that apart from 1 is high risk and it depends on what the market actually does - so unless you already know what you are doing do 1..
  • #15,905
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:45am Nov 11, 2014 8:45am
Quoting BenderTrader
About 20 % loss on equity at the moment
While one should never allow that kind of drawdown it certainly can and does happen. At that point you have ask yourself a simple question. What's worse? 20%, 30% 50% or more?

One thing is sure about the market. Whether you're willing to accept a loss or not, it doesn't care. Every good fighter knows if you're cornered, sometimes you have to take a hit or two in order to keep on fighting.

It's simple. Account preservation is the name of the game because without one, you're out. Take the hit, chalk it up to tuition costs and come out fighting again. Above all, Learn from the mistake.

Best wishes whatever you decide.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #15,906
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:47am Nov 11, 2014 8:47am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} First off no-one knows where this will go next so you need to cover both possibilities. Options are. 1. Take the hit and refund your account with another 20% - put it down to cost of learning. 2. Open an equal trade long and watch. 3. If price carries on up with main trend add to the long - AT THE RIGHT TIME. 4. If it goes down close the short at be or better and wait for the long to come into profit. Nb - all of that apart from 1 is high risk and it depends on what the market actually does - so unless you already know what you are doing...
LOL ... typing at the same time again ... are we Stew?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #15,907
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:51am Nov 11, 2014 8:51am
Quoting albchr
{quote} LOL ... typing at the same time again ... are we Stew?
LOL - yeah I was gonna post something very similar to you as well - namely 20% dd on 1 trade is way too much risk.
  • #15,908
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:56am Nov 11, 2014 8:56am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} LOL - yeah I was gonna post something very similar to you as well - namely 20% dd on 1 trade is way too much risk.
That's funny. When I read yours I was like ... why didn't I think of that? Oh well, good advice all around. Have a great day buddy.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #15,909
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:00am Nov 11, 2014 9:00am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Ok look, if we see some momentum at 70ish to the downside get at BE as soon as possible if not rather bail and wait for 185.00/84.80 or 183.40/20. Possible stop for your trade 184.10 + Spread because if it fails to print 184.10 your chances are moderate. Add: If you got stopped out too many times for one direction, just pick the opposite, I know its easy said. Recommended read: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post7309429
I will take the advice and work on it, sound good!
  • #15,910
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:46am Nov 11, 2014 9:46am
Quoting BenderTrader
About 20 % loss on equity at the moment
The best traders are those that know how to take a loss, trading is by making money by managing risk and absorbing the inevitable losses. People who start off making mistakes most likely will succeed better than those who started of winning so don't take it hard. I can bet that once this is over you will adjust and start making better decisions. There are good posts on this thread so we are fortunate, over time you will gain that edge/experience. Goodluck
  • #15,911
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:54am Nov 11, 2014 9:54am
Simple analysis: If it does not go down, then up. Buy stop at 184.30, Target 190 +
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,912
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:03am Nov 11, 2014 10:03am
Quoting FXCyborg
If you have the iMacd Indicator, load it up amd apply it to the 4HR... more longs to come. {quote}
oh yeah not really into indicators but I definitely feel you on that ...had already scooped up about 140 + pips on gbp/yen and 90+ pips on Eur/Yen going long from yesterday. Not worried about my decision going short today ( I will take it any day) ...more worried about my reasons for closing out those long trades prematurely. Could be fear of more Break-even trades or less confidence with a methodology i'm trying. All in all this is 1 of the best threads here and I love all inputs. So how does your charts look like if you don't mind posting 1 of those later
  • #15,913
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:08am Nov 11, 2014 10:08am
For anyone jumping in short on this pair over past several hours, and uncertain of price direction, I recommend learning how to spot reversals and also how to gauge this on multiple time frames.

You can still be wrong on any given trade, but at least if you know how to spot a reversal, it will help you to know when price is actually turning, and may likely continue that reversal, helpful to enter trades, as well as to know when to continue riding profitable trades and when to TP...

Price has been moving up since yesterday from the reversal on H1 and H4 time frames, and in my view, I see no sign of any start of a downtrend, so am still riding this long. Of course that could change any time but for whatever it's worth, I wanted to post my view on this.

Of course, remember that whatever time frame you see a reversal on, even if you are correct in assessing a reversal, that reversal is only "reliable" till it reaches the next point of resistance on that time frame...

Hope this helps anyone still trying to work on determining price direction. Happy trading!
  • #15,914
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:09am Nov 11, 2014 10:09am
Quoting Hickson
Simple analysis: If it does not go down, then up. Buy stop at 184.30, Target 190 +
Hey ..any Stop loss ? probably the most important information here. If you trading the dailies, that SL will have to be adjusted (could get expensive)
  • #15,915
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:11am Nov 11, 2014 10:11am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hey ..any Stop loss ? probably the most important information here. If you trading the dailies, that SL will have to be adjusted (could get expensive)
That's true. Best stop would be probably somewhere above 180.20. But since I do not have so much money, would be something like 183.70
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,916
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:19am Nov 11, 2014 10:19am
Quoting benaiah
For anyone jumping in short on this pair over past several hours, and uncertain of price direction, I recommend learning how to spot reversals and also how to gauge this on multiple time frames. You can still be wrong on any given trade, but at least if you know how to spot a reversal, it will help you to know when price is actually turning, and may likely continue that reversal, helpful to enter trades, as well as to know when to continue riding profitable trades and when to TP... Price has been moving up since yesterday from the reversal on H1...
Nice input, my views here in respect to closing those longs were more psychological than technical. Maybe old lesson die hard but with US having a holiday and lower liquidity than average, Price can change without warning and I would rather not be in the mix if that happens.(again could be fear of those break evens as I had a couple last week) Boils down to risk appetite, I know some traders who trade other peoples money and avoid drastic News Cycles like NFP /interest rates while other embrace it. I like your point but you didn't factor in the low liquidity aspect of today. Sure the market went up today but it could have easily gone down even with high bullish probabilities.
  • #15,917
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:30am Nov 11, 2014 10:30am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} That's true. Best stop would be probably somewhere above 180.20. But since I do not have so much money, would be something like 183.70
you know if you think Sl should be 180.20 but have to place it @ 183.70 because of constraints then you not giving your trade the required breathing space and basically giving your broker free money. You should look for a reason not to take a trade rather than a reason to be in one. (granted this is a rule we all break often) This is where proper money management / not over-trading helps preserve our equity.
  • #15,918
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:30am Nov 11, 2014 10:30am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Nice input, my views here in respect to closing those longs were more psychological than technical. Maybe old lesson die hard but with US having a holiday and lower liquidity than average, Price can change without warning and I would rather not be in the mix if that happens.(again could be fear of those break evens as I had a couple last week) Boils down to risk appetite, I know some traders who trade other peoples money and avoid drastic News Cycles like NFP /interest rates while other embrace it. I like your point but you didn't factor...
Thanks for your response. However, my post was directed more to those trying to trade GBPJPY short over past several hours. But your response seems more to indicate your view is to stand aside, rather than try and pick a direction. I respect that, even if I don't agree with it.
  • #15,919
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:36am Nov 11, 2014 10:36am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} you know if you think Sl should be 180.20 but have to place it @ 183.70 because of constraints then you not giving your trade the required breathing space and basically giving your broker free money. You should look for a reason not to take a trade rather than a reason to be in one. (granted this is a rule we all break often) This is where proper money management / not over-trading helps preserve our equity.
Now as I think about it, you are right. Even more, I think I am probably not wealthy enough to trade, which might be a big reason for not getting anywhere with it.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,920
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:40am Nov 11, 2014 10:40am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Thanks for your response. However, my post was directed more to those trying to trade GBPJPY short over past several hours. But your response seems more to indicate your view is to stand aside, rather than try and pick a direction. I respect that, even if I don't agree with it.
Having said that in retrospect, currently as the price is consolidating at upward resistance right now, I DO think it would be a good time to stand aside, if you are not in a long trade. Price could reverse here. But, I've moved my SL up, and will see if I can squeeze a little more out of it...
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