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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #15,821
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:29am Nov 10, 2014 5:29am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Sometimes it takes less to see more
Another example

M15 Chart (left)

yellow = Close price of M15 period
green = highest price of M15 period (MA (1) @ high)
red = lowest price of M15 period (MA (1) @ low)

Stick to recent highs and lows.

Just a thought for those who wanna escape the candlestick-analysis-paralysis-madness.
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  • #15,822
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:36am Nov 10, 2014 5:36am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Another example M15 Chart (left) yellow = Close price of M15 period green = highest price of M15 period (MA (1) @ high) red = lowest price of M15 period (MA (1) @ low) Stick to recent highs and lows. Just a thought for those who wanna escape the candlestick-analysis-paralysis-madness. {image}
Sorry Ray but I like candlesticks lol and depending how this one closes I'm bullish.

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  • #15,823
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:38am Nov 10, 2014 5:38am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Sorry Ray but I like candlesticks and depending how this one closes I'm bullish. {image}
No reason to say sorry, have no monopoly on the truth, all fine Im watching the close too since I use it in this setup. For me (and maybe others) its just a easier way to watch a chart, more objectively..

Add: I like candlesticks off daily charts.
  • #15,824
  • Nov 10, 2014 6:13am Nov 10, 2014 6:13am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Nice, may I ask what by what approach you define them?
Sure man, ask away!

I'll use the 181.38/18 level. All the way back to last week's start of the trading day, 181.280 seemed pretty significant during the london session. It tested it, but could not break it. The next day during the asian and early london sessions, it was tested again, but the market wouldn't break it. Later in that session, bad news came out for the gbp, and it dropped. Yet it hung onto that level for about 2 hours before going bull again. Some of the candles broke it, but there was at least a wick holding onto that 181.280 level the entire time. Even later during the new york session, it sat on the higher level of 181.380, and poked at 181.280, but just kept on moving up. When a level gets tested numerous times, and price at least grabs it during that candle, that's a good indication it's solid. I add two more levels, one 10 pips above, the other 10 pips below as a sort of reference. They usually line up on top and below of some candles, and show some candles to be false breaks. They might punch through a level, but move back inside of it during the next candle. Sometimes during big volatility, it will whip past that middle point quickly, but one of the other points catches it, and it tends to come back inside the zone shortly after.

If it's going bull, a body has to make a clear break of the upper level. If going bear, it has to make a clear break of the lower level.

Now some of the zones aren't as clear/solid as that one. In that case, I'm looking for the mid-point to touch as many candles as possible. From there, at least either the upper or lower levels act as resistance/support, having no candles breaking clear of them. I think there actually was one candle (a spinning top I believe) that did break the 182.64/44 point back on the 5th, but the candles both before and after touched that top point. If I went long with it, would've set my stop on 182.64, and taken a small hit. Like I said, it's something new I'm looking into, so it's not exactly perfect.

And if you take a look at the 15m, candle breaks above 181.380, keeps going up, getting out of that area. Opened position at 181.470. Another 10 pips, set stop to BE, target 181.790 (going to bed shortly, won't be up to watch the whole thing unfold, so I'm setting a smaller TP).
  • #15,825
  • Nov 10, 2014 6:23am Nov 10, 2014 6:23am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Sure man, ask away! I'll use the 181.38/18 level. All the way back to last week's start of the trading day, 181.280 seemed pretty significant during the london session. It tested it, but could not break it. The next day during the asian and early london sessions, it was tested again, but the market wouldn't break it. Later in that session, bad news came out for the gbp, and it dropped. Yet it hung onto that level for about 2 hours before going bull again. Some of the candles broke it, but there was at least a wick holding onto that 181.280...
Thanks for this detailed explanation, 4x. IŽd like to know your results and trading on this one. Nice to see you did some thought on my approach, let me know about your process, maybe I can drop 2 cents. Keep me updated and good luck!
  • #15,826
  • Nov 10, 2014 6:40am Nov 10, 2014 6:40am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Thanks for this detailed explanation, 4x. IŽd like to know your results and trading on this one. Nice to see you did some thought on my approach, let me know about your process, maybe I can drop 2 cents. Keep me updated and good luck!
UPDATE: I lost the trade.

Hehe, think I placed my stop too tight, and opened my trade a little too late. Probably would've been better to open at the mid-point, and set the stop just outside of the bottom line. Not really a big deal, only 7 pips. Not even 0.5% risk on that one. It's also the first day of the week. I typically don't trade this one since it's a very "iffy" day, but hey, no risk no reward.

I'm off work today, so I'll be spending hours testing it out in practice trading. Will keep you updated on how things pan out with it.
  • #15,827
  • Nov 10, 2014 10:36am Nov 10, 2014 10:36am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} UPDATE: I lost the trade. Hehe, think I placed my stop too tight, and opened my trade a little too late. Probably would've been better to open at the mid-point, and set the stop just outside of the bottom line. Not really a big deal, only 7 pips. Not even 0.5% risk on that one. It's also the first day of the week. I typically don't trade this one since it's a very "iffy" day, but hey, no risk no reward. I'm off work today, so I'll be spending hours testing it out in practice trading. Will keep you updated on how things pan out...
Just another trade..
  • #15,828
  • Nov 10, 2014 1:48pm Nov 10, 2014 1:48pm
Are you sure, there's no H&S Top from what I can see on the 1Hr. The 4Hr is the perfect example of a H&S.

Quoting JasmineQu
{quote} Are you saying the H&S in H1 chart as I saw ? Break 181.00 will be necessory.
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  • #15,829
  • Nov 10, 2014 2:46pm Nov 10, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting FXCyborg
Are you sure, there's no H&S Top from what I can see on the 1Hr. The 4Hr is the perfect example of a H&S. {quote}
You could be right. Yet, the right shoulder is still to be formed. Let's see if it can break the neckline in a way that is persuasive.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,830
  • Nov 10, 2014 3:02pm Nov 10, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Just another trade..
Yup. And looking back on it, the stop was too tight. It actually was a good trade, but hindsight is always 20/20.

Time to practice for a few hours!
  • #15,831
  • Nov 10, 2014 3:02pm Nov 10, 2014 3:02pm
I'm short. Low risk trade, as it is at the top of a channel down right now. Has to break out upward, or it will fall.

If price cannot break above 182.14 very soon, I anticipate a 100 pip drop to 181ish...
  • #15,832
  • Nov 10, 2014 3:25pm Nov 10, 2014 3:25pm
I really don't like being long jpy
  • #15,833
  • Nov 10, 2014 3:34pm Nov 10, 2014 3:34pm
Will watch and see if it finds support around 181.20-30ish area. Possibly a good TP. If it falls through that area, then I'd look for it to fall below 181. We'll see...
  • #15,834
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:09pm Nov 10, 2014 5:09pm
hmm... Was hoping for a more decisive move right away, and eventual break out of the inside bar on the daily. No such thing.

So, still completely indecisive on daily chart, but at the bottom of the range of the inside bar. I don't like being short at the bottom of ranges, unless it is showing strong signs of breaking out. Shorter time frame is top of range, but daily is bottom.

Will need to see more decisiveness on the shorter time frames to maintain short bias...
  • #15,835
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:15pm Nov 10, 2014 5:15pm
181.759 needs to be broken for further downside...

Otherwise, looking like this might be a nice place to go long, bottom of daily inside bar range...
  • #15,836
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:16am Nov 11, 2014 12:16am
Quoting js5020
I really don't like being long jpy
I know what you mean. I too went short yesterday @ 181.08 during early London session only to have price go against me. Took a 10 pip loss but then noticed that we were on Nov 4th & Nov 7th Low and Immediately went long as this became a buy signal to me. Fortunately US session extended gains and I Took Profit @ 182.50 Would have loved to hold on to the trade but I didn't for personal reasons. Bad liquidity means a smaller amount of effort can be used to move price any direction, and right now it looks like the bears can finally wrest control. I probably may not trade today but if I would, I would like for price to get to 182.73/89 level for a short. For long opportunities , watching the 182.00 round number / 38.2 fib isn't a bad idea. A 3rd option would be to just wait for 183.40/20 as per Fx-rays's dp or lastly just be very cautious and just take the day off...I doubt we will be doing that.
  • #15,837
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:57am Nov 11, 2014 12:57am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
Hey all. Yet another week begins. Looking like it's moving bearish for a bit. It's been testing the zone of 181.38/18 for a couple of days now. If it breaks (which seems likely with the amount of piercing going on), then a move down towards another zone at 180.62/42 would be the next target. There's a few more targets below that if the move continues bear. Z1: 181.38/18 Z2: 180.62/42 Z3: 180.14/179.94 Z4: 179.65/45 Z5: 178.88/68 Take what I say with a grain of salt of course, I'm trying this method out this week. FX-Ray definitely knows what's going...
Hey your thoughts are in the right direction but an advice from experience, You included a lot of MINOR zones and this is tantamount to having 4 indicators in a chart. It will skewer everything and confuse you. Less is more and better... If you blindfold your eyes and draw random lines on a chart , you will see that price will react to those lines as well,Its all in the interpretation. Limit it to 5 on a chart and the longer the time frame the better. Just an advice from my limited experience.
  • #15,838
  • Nov 11, 2014 2:00am Nov 11, 2014 2:00am
Good morning. Way too unclear for me. Was stopped out of shorts twice yesterday and it just pushed through the upper DPs just to stop a bit over there ... who is able to trade this?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,839
  • Edited 2:12am Nov 11, 2014 2:00am | Edited 2:12am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hey your thoughts are in the right direction but an advice from experience, You included a lot of MINOR zones and this is tantamount to having 4 indicators in a chart. It will skewer everything and confuse you. Less is more and better... If you blindfold your eyes and draw random lines on a chart , you will see that price will react to those lines as well,Its all in the interpretation. Limit it to 5 on a chart and the longer the time frame the better. Just an advice from my limited experience.
Not really, for me, it's more or less for watching smaller moves, and finding better points to enter/exit my trades. For an overall look at the movement, I go with the bigger timeframes.

I used to use just single lines, but it wasn't enough for me personally. Too many times I'd open trades, and the market would reverse on me. Having an established zone is much more beneficial to me.

For example, once it had a full body break of 182.640 a little while ago, I went long. I'm currently up 50 pips on the trade. If I just went with strictly one line, I likely would've missed the move and not taken anything. Now I could go crazy with the zones, and put them within 20 pips of each other, but that's overkill. It's not about me identifying every minor zone I see. I search for a significant amount of indecision on it. I'm looking for a zone that has a significant indecision, on a minor chart. Having 4 or 5 candles in a 20 pip area for me isn't a zone. But if it has at least 5 candles, on more than one day (especially a high or low for the week) it shows that it's an area for me to watch. It shows movement will likely spur from that zone, and while some call it "chasing a trade", I consider it getting on board a station later. I lose a bit in potential profits, but I now rarely fall prey to false signals, and have taken far less losses.

And wow, big move there. Dragon woke up for sure. And low and behold, candles stopped at 183.350. Going to wait a bit, see if a candle breaks north shortly, then go long again. If not, wait for something to hint at moving south, and get on that train.

Thanks for the concern, but I've put some practice in today, and have been able to eliminate any fuzz or confusion it would cause. I have another chart running without it to keep things clear if they get a bit messy.

edit: I should also add, it's more or less when the market is sitting in between FX-Ray's DPs. When it's unsure of which way it's going, it's something I can use to help get me some small profitable trades to keep the account growing. Since it just blew through 183.20/00, I'm now holding my positions until the next DP.
  • #15,840
  • Nov 11, 2014 2:44am Nov 11, 2014 2:44am
Quoting Hickson
Good morning. Way too unclear for me. Was stopped out of shorts twice yesterday and it just pushed through the upper DPs just to stop a bit over there ... who is able to trade this?
Good morning, Yes I also was stopped out twice trying to shorting this beast, still moving up and down DP, would rather wait. You need a lot of patience if you trying to ride this dragon.
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