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  • #9,541
  • Nov 8, 2014 1:50pm Nov 8, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting infinitus
Daneric http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot...liott+Waves%29
None of your posibilities allow a lower price than Friday's low ?
  • #9,542
  • Nov 8, 2014 1:53pm Nov 8, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} What rules have been broken? Can you elaborate?
No, I did not make notes. The process of trading successfully is stress enough. I am only in for gaining money, I have no further interests
  • #9,543
  • Nov 8, 2014 2:01pm Nov 8, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} None of your posibilities allow a lower price than Friday's low ?

Hi Lavanda,

the only variant I can see would be an extending wave 5, where the wave 1 of this wave 5 (which started @ 2887) is a leading diagonal. Leading diagonals are very rare, so this count has less probability

Yesterdays movement above 2457 has done damage for bearish views

we should now watch carefully the resistance shelf around 2630-2640
  • #9,544
  • Nov 8, 2014 2:15pm Nov 8, 2014 2:15pm
COT data of EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.jpg Size: 411 KB
  • #9,545
  • Nov 8, 2014 2:17pm Nov 8, 2014 2:17pm
Kiwi

http://ewminteractive.com/nzd-usd-a-...ecovery-ahead/
  • #9,546
  • Nov 8, 2014 2:33pm Nov 8, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Lavanda, the only variant I can see would be an extending wave 5, where the wave 1 of this wave 5 (which started @ 2887) is a leading diagonal. Leading diagonals are very rare, so this count has less probability Yesterdays movement above 2457 has done damage for bearish views we should now watch carefully the resistance shelf around 2630-2640
This rare option would send us to 2300-2200. Isn't it?. Which area would invalidate this rare option for you?
  • #9,547
  • Nov 8, 2014 3:26pm Nov 8, 2014 3:26pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} This rare option would send us to 2300-2200. Isn't it?. Which area would invalidate this rare option for you?

Only movement above 2887

I think the target area for this case would be even deeper. Maybe 1.18 for 3 of 5 and the 5 of 5 then in the 1.15 area???
  • #9,548
  • Nov 8, 2014 3:40pm Nov 8, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting infinitus
COT data of EU {image}

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Speculators Have Never Been More Long The Dollar


Time to go short the USD?
  • #9,549
  • Nov 8, 2014 4:18pm Nov 8, 2014 4:18pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} {image} Speculators Have Never Been More Long The Dollar Time to go short the USD?
Wait wait wait. Those are not retail SSI positions, this is completly oposite scale of positions. Those speculators on report are usually correct, not on wrong side of move like retailers. Compare CoT report to SSI EURUSD yearly and you will notice those two are completly different kind of things. Check currency trends and compare them with Cot you will notice pretty much 90% correct results. So oposite of SSI. When Cot traders started loading EUR shorts, retailers started loading EUR longs heavy in early May, that says it all.
  • #9,550
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:15pm Nov 8, 2014 5:15pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Wait wait wait. Those are not retail SSI positions, this is completly oposite scale of positions. Those speculators on report are usually correct, not on wrong side of move like retailers. Compare CoT report to SSI EURUSD yearly and you will notice those two are completly different kind of things. Check currency trends and compare them with Cot you will notice pretty much 90% correct results. So oposite of SSI. When Cot traders started loading EUR shorts, retailers started loading EUR longs heavy in early May, that says it all.

I do use the Larry Williams method of judging the COT data (Trade Stocks and Commodities with the insiders)

Here you look mainly on that, what the Commercials are doing.

You look at the COT index and additionally at the % of the long positions the Commercials hold.


Generally speaking: when the COT Index for the Comms is near 100% and the COT Index for the large Specs is near 0%, and the % of the long position of the Commercials it at record highs, than there might be a good case for a contrarian view.

If you are interested, email me.......

But keep in mind: one can not trade or time the trade based alone at COT data.



The large Specs are also only part of the crowd and crowd behavior. You can see this clearly, because they are almost ever totally short at the bottom (where they should go long) and also totally long at tops when they indeed should be already short.
  • #9,551
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:02am Nov 9, 2014 3:02am
Quoting infinitus
Analyzing the whole wave down from 399x in EU Let me analyse this wave down and imply, that this is an impulse: wave 1 started @ 3993 and ended @ 3590 wave 1 is 403 pips and lasted 28 days wave 2 started @ 3590 and ended @ 3700 wave 2 is 110 pips and lasted 47 days wave 2 retraced around 23,6% of wave 1 wave 2 retraced 38,2% of the whole move down, because wave 2 formed an ABC-flat, where the wave B ended @ 3503 wave 2 took the shape of an ABC-flat since wave 2's are usually a zigzag or zigzag combination, we should seriously consider the 3503 as...

someone just asked me, where the whole confusion regarding the various variants I showed would stem from

here is the answer:


it stems mainly from the sideways consolidation in the 1.3333 to 1,3433 area as shown on the picture

no one can say for sure, if the red 2 is placed proper, if the pink 1 and 2 are placed the proper way. When one goes to really low TF, the case you see on my picture gets more and more merit


but on the other side


it is easy to find a corrective sideways count that would place the red 2 at the position of the pink 2, or even at the peak near the channel line


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 52 KB





and the we have additionally this area of confusion:

I can not say for sure, again, if the pink 1 and 2 are proper, or if they only belonged to a wired complex correction


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_30 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 53 KB
  • #9,552
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:44am Nov 9, 2014 3:44am
Variant A

blue 1,2,3,4 and maybe 5 have ended, or blue 4 still in development
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 72 KB
  • #9,553
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:49am Nov 9, 2014 3:49am
Variant B

blue 1,2,3 have ended, now up for blue 4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_12 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 76 KB
  • #9,554
  • Nov 9, 2014 4:01am Nov 9, 2014 4:01am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jonas, hoffe, dass es Dior gut geht. Immer noch im Bankengeschäft? Wenn ja, können wir bei dir schon die Kursrichtung bestellen?

Immer noch im Bankengeschäft (Unternehmenskunden), ja ....

Und nein^^
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #9,555
  • Nov 9, 2014 4:41am Nov 9, 2014 4:41am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I do use the Larry Williams method of judging the COT data (Trade Stocks and Commodities with the insiders) Here you look mainly on that, what the Commercials are doing. You look at the COT index and additionally at the % of the long positions the Commercials hold. Generally speaking: when the COT Index for the Comms is near 100% and the COT Index for the large Specs is near 0%, and the % of the long position of the Commercials it at record highs, than there might be a good case for a contrarian view. If you are interested, email...
Yep that is true. This is one way to trade, i have simpler one. You only watch non-commercials. It is trading only with trend (basically trading breaks), and you get on hand signal without having to guess:
http://prntscr.com/54jw9u
When non comercials switch price goes into their way most of time, its good quallity signal for price reversal. Also additionally good signal is gap change in non-commercial positions, notice on two red squares non-commercials switched positions from very extreme into oposite side very sharply and price followed sharply.
  • #9,556
  • Nov 9, 2014 2:02pm Nov 9, 2014 2:02pm
Marc from https://twitter.com/gettoefl

gave me the link to this guy https://twitter.com/DocClaude


for sharing with you here


Say thanks......
  • #9,557
  • Nov 9, 2014 2:21pm Nov 9, 2014 2:21pm
Thanks: )

So 1.35? Isn´t that a little high?
  • #9,558
  • Nov 9, 2014 2:25pm Nov 9, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I do use the Larry Williams method of judging the COT data (Trade Stocks and Commodities with the insiders) Here you look mainly on that, what the Commercials are doing. You look at the COT index and additionally at the % of the long positions the Commercials hold. Generally speaking: when the COT Index for the Comms is near 100% and the COT Index for the large Specs is near 0%, and the % of the long position of the Commercials it at record highs, than there might be a good case for a contrarian view. If you are interested, email me..........
I am interested, since building long term positions probably better fits me. But do not know the mail though ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #9,559
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:11pm Nov 9, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I am interested, since building long term positions probably better fits me. But do not know the mail though ...

you got mail
  • #9,560
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:12pm Nov 9, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting CandleStar
Thanks: ) So 1.35? Isn´t that a little high?

the 61.8% retracement is in the 34 vicinity
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