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  • #9,521
  • Nov 7, 2014 4:45pm Nov 7, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} das kann ich dir jetzt nicht sagen - ich habe diese woche AUDUSD nicht geschaut.
Naja, werd ich mal schauen ... aber erstmal ein Reversal einleiten ins Wochenende.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #9,522
  • Nov 7, 2014 4:50pm Nov 7, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting Hickson
What happened to Hadox?!?!
don't know...

he was pissed off the last time...
  • #9,523
  • Nov 7, 2014 4:59pm Nov 7, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} don't know... he was pissed off the last time...
Why? I told him that we could talk about nice things/hobbies for free time because he said he felt like not using his time really. Maybe he took it personal, I do not know. He also critizised my trading (which was ok, since I have not enough experience in the market) but probably was really in a bad mood.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #9,524
  • Nov 7, 2014 10:46pm Nov 7, 2014 10:46pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} can you post the email of elliottwave.com den pennern schreib ich mal, aber bayerisch frech wie o a drecksspazi.

[email protected]
  • #9,525
  • Edited 9:47am Nov 8, 2014 5:18am | Edited 9:47am
[quote=Schickeria;7856022]{quote} i think also mate. PA is ugly atm... i will calculate tomorrow the next moves - if i can - Augustiner is calling today!!! I'm really happy, that you participate on my thread with your analyses . Thank you very much. Or folks - what do you think ? kbmoonshinex is the king of ichimoku on my view

Whoops quote fail from phone. Just wanted to add to that he is very good trader.
  • #9,526
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:46am Nov 8, 2014 5:46am
Quoting Hickson
Aussie im Downtrend. Ich geh jetzt einfach auf den nächsten Swing short. Da der Aussie eine drangsalierte Elendsgestalt ist, die von Daten aus China manipuliert wird, wird die Sache notfalls auch mit longs bearbeitet, falls nötig.

Im short on Aussie.

Sold 0.8612, gonna reload at 0.8750. Stop is 0.8805. Target 0.8315. Lets see.

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Have a nice weekend!

J
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #9,527
  • Nov 8, 2014 6:45am Nov 8, 2014 6:45am
Analyzing the whole wave down from 399x in EU


Let me analyse this wave down and imply, that this is an impulse:


wave 1 started @ 3993 and ended @ 3590

wave 1 is 403 pips and lasted 28 days



wave 2 started @ 3590 and ended @ 3700

wave 2 is 110 pips and lasted 47 days

wave 2 retraced around 23,6% of wave 1

wave 2 retraced 38,2% of the whole move down, because wave 2 formed an ABC-flat, where the wave B ended @ 3503

wave 2 took the shape of an ABC-flat

since wave 2's are usually a zigzag or zigzag combination, we should seriously consider the 3503 as end of the wave 1



Wave 3 started @ 3700 and most likely ended @ 2500

wave 3 is 1200 pips and lasted 136 days

wave 3 is 298,6% extension of wave 1, or 243% when measured from the B-wave low of wave 2

just for notice: if we take yesterdays low as the end of the wave 3 (my other count), wave 3 would be 334% extension of wave 1, or 272,7% when measured from the B-wave low of wave 2. But I am about to discard this count, because the main count has the better look and feel right now




wave 4 started @ 2887
now the question is: has wave 4 ended @ 2865, or is that leg up only the A-wave of an ABC-flat correction or something more complex


A) case for wave 4 has ended @ 2887

wave 4 started @ 2500 and ended @ 2887

wave 4 is 387 pips and 14 day

wave 4 retraced 32,25% of wave 3

wave 4 took the shape of a double zigzag

in light of alternation wave 2 and 4 did not really show alternation in light of retracement, but showed alternation in form and time


The following wave 5 has overlapping structure and can be counted as ending diagonal

In an ending diagonal wave 2 and 4 usually retrace 66 to 81% of the preceding waves. We do have this here.The picture shows a diverging ending diagonal

EWP states, that in an expanding ending diagonal the wave 5 does usually end before reaching a line thatis drawn through wave 1 and wave 3 of the diagonal. In this case, wave 5 went beyond the line, but does not invalidate the count.

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EWP states, that within an impulse where wave 3 is extended, wave 5 may be a diagonal (or: wave 5 diagonal is unlikely, when wave 3 is not extended)

wave 5 started @ 2887 and ended @ 2353

wave 5 is the 138,2% extension of wave 4, which is a very common target for a wave 5

wave 5 is 534 pips and 33 days



The whole wave down 1-5 does channel exceptionally well in an Elliott-Wave base channel, shows even overthrow with the wave 3




B) case for wave 4 is undergoing and forms a complex WXY in form of an expanded flat correction (or may turn out as running flat)

EWP states:

Attachment

Attachment


wave 4 started @ 2500 and is undergoing

wave A of the 4 is a double zigzag

wave B of the 4 is a triple zigzag


The EWP states that:

Attachment


Since the wave 3 is very extended, the idea of an expanded flat would fit very well.

Wave B has retraced 138% of wave B, which is perfect for an expanded flat.

Since wave C's of expanded flats usually go well beyond the end of the wave A, we may start to look for targets in the 2990 to 3100 vicinity
  • #9,528
  • Nov 8, 2014 6:57am Nov 8, 2014 6:57am
Maybe you noticed, that I have some "disputes" with Schickerias view of kind of fixed fib-relationships between the waves (or interrelationships between bigger waves)


Here is what EWP says:


Notice the sentence:

in an imaginary rendition of reasonably ideal Elliott wave, complete with paralell trend channel.......


and then:

It will always remain an exercise to determin probability, however, not certainty.Nature's law governing life and growth, though immutable, nevertheless allow for an immense diversity of specific outcome, and the market is no exeption.


and:

All that can be said at this point is that comparing the price length of waves FREQUENTLY confirms, often with pinpoint accuracy, that Fib ratios are a key determination of where waves will stop.


For me clearly only a guideline, not a rule. And as the first sentence said, it is derived from an idealised imaginary Elliott wave.


But I can understand Schickeria to trade this idealised view. Because in only looking for the ideal situations one may get the extra low risk trades. When it does not happen, one can siomply wait for the next opportunity


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  • #9,529
  • Nov 8, 2014 7:19am Nov 8, 2014 7:19am
Quoting infinitus
Maybe you noticed, that I have some "disputes" with Schickerias view of kind of fixed fib-relationships between the waves (or interrelationships between bigger waves) Here is what EWP says: Notice the sentence: in an imaginary rendition of reasonably ideal Elliott wave, complete with paralell trend channel....... and then: It will always remain an exercise to determin probability, however, not certainty.Nature's law governing life and growth, though immutable, nevertheless allow for an immense diversity of specific outcome, and the market is no...


then there is the problem of market rigging

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Meet The (First) Seven Banks Who Rigged The FX Market



notice the big names:

 

  1. Barclays PLC
  2. HSBC Holdings PLC
  3. Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC
  4. UBS AG
  5. Citigroup
  6. J.P. Morgan Chase
  7. Bank of America Corp. Bank of America


Since this Banks are well aware of Elliott waves and fib-relationships, it will be easy for them to spot the "natural" (idealised) turning points in the markets, and with their literally unlimited firepower thanks to the ever diluting national banks, it should be easy to turn the price just before the idealised turning points, or cause overthrow.

I think I have that seen over and over again in the past.

In the past, I also tried to get in only at the best places, but noticing that the game is not so idealized as I would have wished for, I changed my trading style and now rather thing in terms of areas........

  • #9,530
  • Nov 8, 2014 8:52am Nov 8, 2014 8:52am
Quoting infinitus
Analyzing the whole wave down from 399x in EU Let me analyse this wave down and imply, that this is an impulse: wave 1 started @ 3993 and ended @ 3590 wave 1 is 403 pips and lasted 28 days wave 2 started @ 3590 and ended @ 3700 wave 2 is 110 pips and lasted 47 days wave 2 retraced around 23,6% of wave 1 wave 2 retraced 38,2% of the whole move down, because wave 2 formed an ABC-flat, where the wave B ended @ 3503 wave 2 took the shape of an ABC-flat since wave 2's are usually a zigzag or zigzag combination, we should seriously consider the 3503 as...


Here is the case for that wave 3 blue has ended @ 2353:


a) the case, that the whole move down has ended @ 2358 leaves us with more bad fib-interrelationships

b) as shown in the picture below, the case that wave red 3 has ended @ 2500 and maybe wave blue 3 has ended @ 2358 gives us better relationships

wave red 3 is 261,8%of red 1

wave green 3 of red 3 is 161,8% of red 1

wave red 5 is nearly 58% of red 3 (at least in the 61,8% vicinity)

wave red 5 is 144% of red 1 (at least in the vicinity of the 138.2%)

wave red 5 is nearly 138,2& extension of the red 4 retracement


wave red 2 was a very short simple ABC-flat (price and time)

wave red 4 was a time consuming and deeper retracing double zigzag

green wave 5 ended @ 261,8% of green wave 1

green wave 3 missed the 138,2% extension of green 1 by a few pips


green wave 5 ended @ 2500 which is 364% extension of the wave green 4 retracement

if the green wave 5 ended already @ 2571, which can not be ruled out, the wave green 5 was the 300% extension of the wave green 4 retracement (which is a common target)

When the wave blue 1 ended @ 3590 the wave blue 3 is an 333% extension of blue 1

When the wave blue 1 ended @ 3503 the wave blue 3 is an 271% extension of blue 1



What does this mean?

Although the whole move down looks now like a finished impulse, there may be a strong case, that we have only finished wave blue 1, 2 and 3 so far


For me, the consequences of all three cases I presented today, remain near term the same:

all three counts call for an upwards move into the 2800-3100 range, roughly spoken

When we have finished the impulse down, a common target for wave 2 up would be between 3100 and 3242 (50% and 61.8%retracement)


From a volume analysis point of view, we had a historical volume POC in the 3090 area (based on the last 32 month). This volume POC was deemed hollow by the markets, because it was broken down with a no-business-zone. So the historical POC was broken literally without volume in its vicinity. The meaning of that is: there was a shift, fundamental shift, in the underlying economical structure (soon ending of QE3 by the FED, and maybe the need for the ECB for more easing). Those no-business-zones are often prone to re-testing. The wave red 4 already tested it slightly. Maybe we get now a retest.

Out of my view, a break of this very significant no-business zone to the upper side, thus the restoration of the historical volume POC so to say, would spell trouble for the bearish case at the end and a re-test of the highs of May (339x) would be on the plate
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  • #9,531
  • Nov 8, 2014 9:02am Nov 8, 2014 9:02am
Daneric

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot...liott+Waves%29
  • #9,532
  • Nov 8, 2014 9:06am Nov 8, 2014 9:06am
regarding Gold:

the explosive upside movement makes me a bit nervous now, because I have not loaded my boat yet


one can count a finished impulse on daily TF down from the 1345 high
  • #9,533
  • Nov 8, 2014 9:58am Nov 8, 2014 9:58am
Quoting infinitus
regarding Gold: the explosive upside movement makes me a bit nervous now, because I have not loaded my boat yet one can count a finished impulse on daily TF down from the 1345 high
Yeh gold made quite a move. Now first important level is right where close is at 1177. Current level can still deliver retracement down however its unlikely to go very far down before going further higher. Strongest level is at 1183 if that is taken gold takes bullish stand on higher tfs, however this only holds true as long as dollar keeps droping. If you notice when dollar is taking strong beating manipulators are usually away, probably becouse it takes too much money to create counter move trough shorts. So as long as dollar remains bellow 9671 gold can be going higher.
  • #9,534
  • Nov 8, 2014 11:16am Nov 8, 2014 11:16am
Hi infinitus,

I share your opinion about the banks that mess around with everything. They know all that we know so they can spoil the party when they want to.

But what does that really mean to our trading? At some point we have to make a decision, and we can only hope that the decision was right and reduce the risk with s/l. But does that make you a winner? You can use technicals and/or fundamentals like s*** and lose ten times or more in a row anyway.

When I said some days ago that I can´t even remember when I lost the last time I am pretty aware of the fact that a lot of pure luck was involved. It wasn´t my genius, no way. The best I can say is that maybe my way of looking at the market was fitting for a period of time. It can be over tomorrow.

You guys here believe mainly in EW, I believe in other technical approaches because I am too lazy to learn all the theory behind EW. But in general I am open to anything, it is never to late to learn something new every day.
  • #9,535
  • Nov 8, 2014 12:03pm Nov 8, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting CandleStar
Hi infinitus, I share your opinion about the banks that mess around with everything. They know all that we know so they can spoil the party when they want to. But what does that really mean to our trading? At some point we have to make a decision, and we can only hope that the decision was right and reduce the risk with s/l. But does that make you a winner? You can use technicals and/or fundamentals like s*** and lose ten times or more in a row anyway. When I said some days ago that I can´t even remember when I lost the last time I am pretty aware...
There is alot in what you said there. First of all current fiat structure of monetary system is very important for fx trading as we know it today (talking about retail). The fact that we as small retail traders can use so much leverage and make quite nice money on big frequency of trades is all due to that. Financial derivates play part to create leverage on whole system allowing banks like Barclays or what not to offer access to money in markets to retailers that even isnt on their balance sheet. And our strategies also are bound to that, well at least from certain perspective. So if fiat structure would take a change liquidity could change along with how easy could one trade certain methods and not others. For example derivates crash on end of fiat sytem would push everyone on extreme de-leveraging which would make retail trading for most retailers impossible, as spreads would widen, and profits would shrunk by dozens of times. So we are all hanging there on thin thread hoping for system to keep loading debt, derivates, keep ponzi going, otherwise change would be drastic for fx industry.
But then from other perspective there is something else. Technicals as long we are talking about solid price action study on liquid assets never changes. If you have solid price action analysis, whether highs lows, EW, candles, fbos, breaks, those applied never change no matter how market changes. Japanese didnt create candlesticks trading method 100 years ago for nothing and it still last until today, due to obvious reason, along with Elliot wave method that was generated in markets that were even before world went onto fiat, yet they still remain just as accurate as they were 50 years ago. Lets take example. Pick up your EURUSD chart, and pick up Bitcoin chart. While those two currency pairs are in completly different market, price action analysis is completly the same for both of them.
If Bitcoin is gone, and 10 years next crypto comes, it will be the same, no change. So as long as you learn PA and its most used trading methods you can transfer that knowledge to any asset, as long as it does have enough liqidity to print solid waves, highs lows and candles (optional).
  • #9,536
  • Nov 8, 2014 12:40pm Nov 8, 2014 12:40pm
Hi janpec,

thanks for the long explanation of your view.

I too hope that this fx markets will exist long enough to give me the money that I need

If not, well then I/we trade something else. During the last crisis I started to look around for other market oportunities and to my greatest surprise they are there. These markets have only to fit into charts and be serious with our money, than we can migrate to another playing ground.

My view on technicals is not so optimistic like yours, but i does not have to be, right? In the end I also have to trust on them to some degree, what else can I do? During the last years I have seen rules being broken so often with an increasing tendency that I find it harder and harder to trust on technicals, but I do not have something better. So the race goes on and on...business as usual...
  • #9,537
  • Nov 8, 2014 12:42pm Nov 8, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting CandleStar
Hi infinitus, I share your opinion about the banks that mess around with everything. They know all that we know so they can spoil the party when they want to. But what does that really mean to our trading? At some point we have to make a decision, and we can only hope that the decision was right and reduce the risk with s/l. But does that make you a winner? You can use technicals and/or fundamentals like s*** and lose ten times or more in a row anyway. When I said some days ago that I can´t even remember when I lost the last time I am pretty aware...

Hi Candlestar,

definitively yes on the "luck"-part.

Trading is playing the probabilities. No one can say for sure where the price will going. All we can do is playing the probabilities, and that involves a lot money management.

When your account is big, and your leverage is low, you will be able to get nearly any wrong position in the green. That is a game of mathematics and patience. Many people do fail here, because they will literally double up on their failed positions way to early.

You said "maybe my way of looking at the market was fitting for a period of time". That is very true statement. Last year when EU kept on going higher and higher I had the first weeks a very hard time, because sometimes I tend to be stubborn LOL and kept on searching counts that would fit my bearish view.

To be biased is our worst enemy, but also the hardest one to overcome, I think.


Regarding the methods:

Indicators work for me great, when we are ranging. But they will kill you, regardless if you think the indi is real-time or lagging.

Cycles are also a bitch, in my view. One may trade them, but they seem to require very low leverage.

S/R lines are a very good method. It is astonishing how even decades old levels get usually respect, at least for some time.

In a clear and nice impulse nothing can beat Elliott-wave. But Elliott-waves do often enough rape the Elliotticans in complex corrections.

Volume analysis, even in Forex is a great tool, but requires a lot of time to understand it fully.


Indicators I do only use for judging the momentum inside of the Elliott waves. But you know: divergence is often enough a bitch, too.


Best is to combine several methods and come to a conclusion.


I think the fastes way to good earnings in Forex is, to try to catch a new trend early and let the position run and untouched. Every here and then the inevitable retracements can be played with counter-positions.

Only in this way you get nearly most of the whole move and are being able to offsetting risk when it is appropriate. I love this method......


Which Indis do you use mainly?
  • #9,538
  • Nov 8, 2014 12:46pm Nov 8, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting CandleStar
During the last years I have seen rules being broken so often with an increasing tendency that I find it harder and harder to trust on technicals, but I do not have something better. So the race goes on and on...business as usual...
What rules have been broken? Can you elaborate?
  • #9,539
  • Nov 8, 2014 12:48pm Nov 8, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} Im short on Aussie. Sold 0.8612, gonna reload at 0.8750. Stop is 0.8805. Target 0.8315. Lets see. {image} {image} {image} Have a nice weekend! J

Hi Jonas,

hoffe, dass es Dior gut geht. Immer noch im Bankengeschäft? Wenn ja, können wir bei dir schon die Kursrichtung bestellen?
  • #9,540
  • Edited 2:09pm Nov 8, 2014 1:50pm | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote}Which Indis do you use mainly?
Impossible to say because they are changing and the process isn´t closed to this moment. I work with up to 7 Metatraders for E/U alone, and within each profile I have up to 7 templates with different TFs and indies. That is why I earlier said it is more "impression" trading and "imagination". So if someone asks for my method it is impossible to say.

I am really not the typical trader. I learned nearly every method, tested about 500 indies (!!!) and found out that there is nothing that can work with profit on it´s own. So I combine a lot. I also use S/R lines, mainly weekly and monthly charts (which helped a lot). Furthermore EOD lines which I learned from cloggie (backward engineering from his forecasts ) Furthermore I profit a lot from diagonal trendlines on all TFs which unfortunately I have to draw on my own every day.

In a few minutes I will start a new profile with TFs from M5 to monthly with s/r lines only. Later I will add a few indies if needed.

Let´s see how it goes and if it is able to take away the stress of looking into so many profiles/templates for every trade.
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