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  • #241
  • Nov 8, 2014 4:45am Nov 8, 2014 4:45am
Quoting gspajon
these are the steps I follow:
Find a trend (higher highs /higher lows=bullish trend; Lower highs/lower lows=bearish trend)
WAIT for a pull back or retrace (this is the patience part)
Look for a price action signal at a "logical" support or resistance area (this is the discipline part)
Enter in the direction of the trend and set a stop AND a limit That's pretty much it.
Very fluid content based on logical common sense.
Kudos to you!
It really doesn't (& shouldn't) need to get any more difficult than this.

You're also documenting & validating your progress with complete transparency at the top of each page by mirroring your live account which shows confidence & honesty in your approach. There are many others on here, especially those inferring consistent success, who could (should) take a leaf out of your book.

An enjoyable & refreshing read, minus all the fluff & pomp & affiliated nonsesne associated with a lot of similar threads on here.
  • #242
  • Nov 8, 2014 7:06am Nov 8, 2014 7:06am
Quoting Buk
{quote} Very fluid content based on logical common sense. Kudos to you! It really doesn't (& shouldn't) need to get any more difficult than this. You're also documenting & validating your progress with complete transparency at the top of each page by mirroring your live account which shows confidence & honesty in your approach. There are many others on here, especially those inferring consistent success, who could (should) take a leaf out of your book. An enjoyable & refreshing read, minus all the fluff & pomp & affiliated nonsesne associated with...
Hello Buk, I truly appreciate your kind words and thank you very much for them. I hope you'll follow along as you see fit and participate when you have the opportunity.
  • #243
  • Nov 8, 2014 1:45pm Nov 8, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting gspajon
OK all you level finding gurus...I am currently stalking the next retrace level on USD/CAD. Today's price action looks fairly clear that a retrace is in progress...(good news on the Canadian Govt. front). So this area highlighted in blue is where I'll be watching to see if a clear price action signal forms. The alignment seems to be right along the 50% and 61.8% fib levels... Lets all watch together shall we? {image}
Hello GS My complemets for your nice thread.
So you suggest one should take a Long position on usd/cad at 1.1256? TP will be 1.2302??
  • #244
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:56pm Nov 8, 2014 5:56pm
Quoting behman8850
{quote} Hello GS My complemets for your nice thread. So you suggest one should take a Long position on usd/cad at 1.1256? TP will be 1.2302??
no i am NOT suggesting anything of that nature. I merely say that the blue highlighted area is where i anticipate the next long signal may form on the daily chart. I never meant to suggest that i would blindly enter. If you've been following along you know I don't trade that way. I look for a price action signal in a logical support area. The last chart is what I consider logical.
  • #245
  • Nov 8, 2014 6:20pm Nov 8, 2014 6:20pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} no i am NOT suggesting anything of that nature. I merely say that the blue highlighted area is where i anticipate the next long signal may form on the daily chart. I never meant to suggest that i would blindly enter. If you've been following along you know I don't trade that way. I look for a price action signal in a logical support area. The last chart is what I consider logical.
Thank you GS.
  • #246
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:45am Nov 9, 2014 3:45am
Quoting Quidsey
No f@ck you stop today, well done mate. Your TP down at S3 not far off being hit I see, what's your plan for NFP if you're still in this trade? I think I might be a bit too intraday for your thread but I'll risk posting this anyway, it's because of what Ken911 was saying about news. I understand the position of staying out, I used to do it myself, and with NFP Friday I always make sure I've got something else to do , but personally I find that if the set-up PA looks good then the news is often just a turbo boost to TP. I'm not advocating trading...

Hi

what's time zone of your chart?
  • #247
  • Nov 9, 2014 7:16am Nov 9, 2014 7:16am
Quoting Sacaric
{quote} Hi what's time zone of your chart?
Alpari chart GMT +2
  • #248
  • Edited 8:08am Nov 9, 2014 7:57am | Edited 8:08am
Quoting Sacaric
{quote} Hi what's time zone of your chart?
I am using FXDD, and their daily candles close at 5:00 pm Eastern Time (New York Close). The chart shows that as Midnight 00:00 hrs...

This can be confusing especially because some brokers close their daily charts at 5:00 pm local time. Depending on where you are in the world the daily candle can look very different.

However, it really doesn't matter, the point of the thread is to apply the method to any chart and watch for entries...what my chart shows as an inner bar, my show up as a shooting star somewhere else...not important as both patterns can be traded with a high degree of success.

If there is a question however, we can all move out to a weekly chart...those are the same everywhere...but require a great deal of patience...sometime one can wait 10-12 weeks for a set up, and another 1-2 weeks for that set up to trigger. But it is good to practice patience...it is (IMHO) on of the top two most important trading skill. The other is discipline.
  • #249
  • Nov 9, 2014 1:54pm Nov 9, 2014 1:54pm
Hi, hope you've had a good weekend. I've been trying to get my head around the Yen side of things and especially USDJPY. I think it's a pretty logical pair to be trend trading, this and gold.

I'm looking to get back in this for a 3rd leg up, 115.50's put the brakes on for the moment, hope it's the start of a decant pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY M30 09112014.png Size: 17 KB


EJ was mentioned earlier and although it's not a pair I trade regularly, it's interesting to have a look, I mean what's stopping it going to 150?

Looks like Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the D1. Lower TF's going sideways after a 3 drive higher. This is what I see.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ D1 08112014.png Size: 20 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ M30 08112014.png Size: 23 KB


All the best for the trading week ahead.

Btw, this is all for discussion purposes and not intended to impinge on GS's excellent thread, but you all seem to be adults here, which is refreshing, so I hope the intended spirit is understood.
  • #250
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:42pm Nov 9, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting Quidsey
I've been trying to get my head around the Yen side of things and especially USDJPY.
I think it's a pretty logical pair to be trend trading, this and gold.
yes, yen is a pretty obvious currency to keep on your watch list.
just about any pair v/s that one is worth monitoring especially if it gets a boost from either japanese influenced momentum or one of it's counterparts obtaining a kick from an event driver.

there isn't much else out there with clear directional bias at the moment.
cable, nzd/usd & usd/chf are still showing promise with either breakout continuation or pullback/continuation potential.
again, event drivers will influence & amplify any continuation moves & if you're setting them up via large hourly/daily triggers there will be sufficient time to prepare & track their progress.

http://i62.tinypic.com/afk5u0.jpg
  • #251
  • Nov 9, 2014 6:03pm Nov 9, 2014 6:03pm
Quoting Quidsey
... Btw, this is all for discussion purposes and not intended to impinge on GS's excellent thread, but you all seem to be adults here, which is refreshing, so I hope the intended spirit is understood.
No issues what so ever...I think your point of view is right on. I too am watching USD/JPY and will pay some close attention to EUR/JPY. In my opinion, as soon as either of these makes a higher low (assuming the signal comes in) I will be looking to take a long.
  • #252
  • Nov 9, 2014 6:35pm Nov 9, 2014 6:35pm
Hello all...hope you all had a good week end.

Attached is a look at the USD/JPY and where I am "seeing" levels. My ability at levels is not as good as I'd like it to be so if anyone has something more valid, I am all ears.

The upper level if a signal comes in this area I most likely will not trade it. I like to see price retrace a little more significantly. However the second area looks excellent to me.

So of the pairs I watch, the USD/JPY and USD/CAD are the two that look like we might see something this week...again this is the part where enormous amounts of patience are required to WAIT for the price to come down to a good level and then WAIT some more to see if one of my 4 signals will form.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade3-0.png Size: 15 KB
  • #253
  • Nov 9, 2014 6:56pm Nov 9, 2014 6:56pm
Historically, after the Bank interferes in the market to try and weaken it, it is not long before the Yen ends up right back where it was before.

Personally, I am cautious about shorting the Yen against any of the weaker currencies at the moment. ie. Euro, NZD, etc. for this reason.

Just something to keep in mind.
  • #254
  • Nov 9, 2014 9:37pm Nov 9, 2014 9:37pm
Nice thread here Gspajon.

Will watch with interest.
  • #255
  • Nov 9, 2014 9:55pm Nov 9, 2014 9:55pm
For anyone liking trading a range, GBCHF has made a L-H, so is in keeping with a trend change within a 1500 pip range. I would be looking for a L-L now to consider a short trade..

Comments appreciated.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBCHF Weekly.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBCHF Daily.png Size: 27 KB
  • #256
  • Nov 10, 2014 7:26am Nov 10, 2014 7:26am
Quoting ken911
For anyone liking trading a range, GBCHF has made a L-H, so is in keeping with a trend change within a 1500 pip range. I would be looking for a L-L now to consider a short trade.. Comments appreciated. {image} {image}
Hey Ken,...Nice catch this pair does indeed look like its ranging...

I would direct your attention to the last two obvious lows on the daily chart you have posted here. It almost looks like a head and shoulders is trying to form. Looking back a little further, it looks like this pair has a propensity to range over the past year and seems especially fond of the false break (lower). Only the middle of the year did it look like a trend. My plan would be:
If range trading; trade it from the bottom up. Because of the obvious and fairly clear higher lows (at least the major ones)
If waiting for a trend; Longs - look for a higher low to come soon (next week or two) Shorts - wait for a break below this range then retest of the range bottom...ie lower low followed by a lower high...This looks like some patience will be required...
  • #257
  • Nov 10, 2014 7:28am Nov 10, 2014 7:28am
Quoting spyderman
Nice thread here Gspajon. Will watch with interest.
Thanks spydie...feel free to give us the benefit of you expertise when you can.
  • #258
  • Nov 10, 2014 8:23am Nov 10, 2014 8:23am
Quoting Buk
there isn't much else out there with clear directional bias at the moment. cable, nzd/usd & usd/chf are still showing promise with either breakout continuation or pullback/continuation potential. again, event drivers will influence & amplify any continuation moves & if you're setting them up via large hourly/daily triggers there will be sufficient time to prepare & track their progress.
focus heightens over the next couple of days on 2 of the pairs mentioned in sunday's post.
kiwi is in the spotlight later on tomorrow when the banks governor Graeme Wheeler addresses the media on the back of the country's latest financial stability report (both red flag events on the calendar).

heavily biased towards agricultural exports, especially dairy products whose prices aren't exactly setting the world on fire at the moment, most folks expect Wheeler to continue talking down their currency whenever the opportunity exists, & a soft report will certainly offer him that.
they've already broadcast they're not looking to hike rates anytime soon due to subdued inflation numbers, so it's worth watching kiwi v/s the $US for another slide towards the 7680-7720 support zone from summer 2013.

wednesday sees more inflationary data from the bank of England.
Mark Carney & his colleagues have constantly stressed they would prefer a 2% trigger on inflation (currently 1.3%), ideally coupled with positive average hourly earnings figures before considering initiating a rate rise.
although they're quite neutral/muted at the moment, a noticeable uptick in average earnings will help their case regards next years anticipated rate hike prospects.
it could also temporarily slow the current bearish bias on cable.

a lacklustre number however will likely inspire more shorting into the developing lower high/lower low trending cycle already in place v/s the dollar & pitch it onwards towards the next obvious potential support area around 1.57, a strong resistance zone from last summer.

i'm sure most of the thread's participants are more technically minded, but matching up event/economic drivers & influences with the corresponding technical developments can help increase probability expectations of a continuation to an already established trending cycle, especially when triggered via the pullback/retracement option suggested & favoured by gspajon.

whatever occurs, good luck to those seeking appropriate opportunities in either of those pairs!
  • #259
  • Nov 10, 2014 1:02pm Nov 10, 2014 1:02pm
Buk...Thank you for the run down on the fundamentals. I would appreciate knowing what you think about how the fundamentals may affect the setup and/or open trades. Most my my work with fundamentals has been mostly to note them and then refer to the technicals to find the trade. I would be interested in knowing how you thing the fundamentals mentioned here will affect how you intend to trade. I have always found it confusing, especially when I see a fundamental report that I would think is bullish result in a sell off...this happened a great deal with the USD over the past several years.

UPDATE on EUR/USD:

I have moved the stop down on this trade to lock in about 194 pips. I'm not liking the way price has stalled at these lows and I want to keep as much of this trade as possible. I feel a little ashamed that I didn't stick to my original plan, chosing instead to move the target out a little further without knowing the probabilities...a mistake on my part that I will not repeat. I broke my discipline...PUBLICALLY.... Sorry folks, more work to do on me...of note, my original limit was hit on Friday...so...bad on me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade1-7.png Size: 14 KB
  • #260
  • Nov 10, 2014 2:06pm Nov 10, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting gspajon
I would appreciate knowing what you think about how the fundamentals may affect the setup and/or open trades.
I would be interested in knowing how you think the fundamentals mentioned here will affect how you intend to trade.
It's very difficult to stay abreast & on top of everything that influences each regional currency gs.
We're at a distinct disadvantage at the retail level in that banks & funds employ specialists whose role is focused solely on sourcing, interpreting & delivering this information to their front-of-desk colleagues 24/7 in order to offer them the slightest edge when prepping, initiating & constructing positions.

The best we can do is focus on generic themes or specific core drivers that are currently impacting the price action surrounding a particular currency & marry those themes/drivers up with any obvious cyclical or trending behaviour keying off those drivers influencing that regions currency.

Trying to filter, anticipate, incorporate & adjust to every little wiggle the (often conflicting) individual data presents to the market will drive you insane & drain your trading pot very quickly indeed, but using a broad brush approach in tandem with the unfolding technical picture can sometimes add a little more confidence in deciding which pairings to focus on, maintaining a directional view with a specific region or perhaps pyramiding a core position.

At the end of the day its all about shuffling & playing probabilities & whatever you can incorporate into your plan that makes sense & appears logical (to you) can only benefit the overall objective, providing of course it assists the bottom line!
Quoting gspajon
UPDATE on EUR/USD: I have moved the stop down on this trade to lock in about 194 pips. I'm not liking the way price has stalled at these lows and I want to keep as much of this trade as possible.
Regardless of the original intent, that’s a very well managed trade resulting in another nice payday!
It doesn’t look as though as you require any additional aids over & above what you're currently using.
There’s an old saying that takes a lot of beating;
'if it aint broke it doesn't need fixing'
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