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  • #181
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:09am Nov 7, 2014 1:09am
In a short term, UR is going to reach 50 mark. It'll shoot above for 0.5 or 1 ruble, then most probably some longs will take profit. It could go potentially then to 46 - 45 rubles for buck and resume uptrend. By the end of the Dec, we are going to face UR close to 55.
For my fallen angels.
  • #182
  • Nov 7, 2014 4:41am Nov 7, 2014 4:41am
Quoting Jonh
I like to see that some of you are still trying to catch a falling knife.
Not really, we're just waiting for the knife to fall ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #183
  • Nov 7, 2014 4:43am Nov 7, 2014 4:43am
Quoting thadakman
I just had a sell order filled at 48.20; insane is not a strong enough word! Maybe one more push after good nfp numbers tomorrow before a slide? Regardless, I think we go back to 46 in quick fashion, call it a hunch.
Good hunch; that's where were at now ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #184
  • Nov 7, 2014 6:02am Nov 7, 2014 6:02am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Good hunch; that's where were at now ... . Lol.
Thanks, always go with "the gut feeling".
  • #185
  • Nov 7, 2014 7:04am Nov 7, 2014 7:04am
Very high volatility today on USD/RUB...
  • #186
  • Nov 7, 2014 7:23am Nov 7, 2014 7:23am
Quoting surfeur
Very high volatility today on USD/RUB...
High volatility (2 way) is always a good thing, this is when things usually turn after getting decimated. The market's on edge with just the threat of intervention.

The Russian central bank stated it was prepared to increase forex interventions "at any moment" to support the ruble, and could also use other financial instruments.

I'm not saying the USD/RUB will NOT go to 50, but everybody thought USD/INR was a sure bet at 70, which never happened, it's been in the low 60's ever since after the correction.

Once the Russian central bank gets serious and lets off their bazooka, the grounds going to fall on this pair.

Whoever is STILL long this pair is either an idiot or a genius, time shall soon tell.
  • #187
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:29pm Nov 7, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting thadakman
{quote} High volatility (2 way) is always a good thing, this is when things usually turn after getting decimated. The market's on edge with just the threat of intervention. The Russian central bank stated it was prepared to increase forex interventions "at any moment" to support the ruble, and could also use other financial instruments. I'm not saying the USD/RUB will NOT go to 50, but everybody thought USD/INR was a sure bet at 70, which never happened, it's been in the low 60's ever since after the correction. Once the Russian central bank gets...
Well, the chart certainly has a different look to it today. Flat somewhat, but extremely wicky ... .

I did actually look for a forecast for Ruble value over the next six months for example; absolutely no one is saying 100 or even 50 at this point in time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #188
  • Nov 7, 2014 3:33pm Nov 7, 2014 3:33pm
We have a beautiful spinning top on the daily chart, we'll see what happens early next week. There are rumors that the Russian central bank might even announce something over weekend; could be a possible gap.

Happy to collect some yield this weekend in the meantime; slight reduction in position size in the 46's from my adds in the 47's and 48's. May not reload more unless be break to new highs near and/or just over 50, for psychological purposes lol.
  • #189
  • Nov 7, 2014 9:05pm Nov 7, 2014 9:05pm
I have tried twice to access the link below which freezes the computer. Maybe you'll have better luck. Cut and pasted what appeared in the search engine.

It is surprising to me that several bank forecasts, some as recent as October 30, predicted no higher than 44 for 2014. My thinking now is - it went up to that high we all saw this week and the weekly and daily candles certainly look different from the history of the last few years. BUT, that high may be tested (read: almost certainly will be tested imho).

I did sell several times, sustaining profits and damage, but for several days now, have placed buy orders on and come home 12 hours later to large profits. For me the issue is not knowing where to put TP, as I am asleep when the pair is most active. It seems to follow my pivots - except when it doesn't and they haven't changed yet. But once the new ones are in, the levels it reaches on my computer coincide with the mid- or pivot lines.

USD RUB supercedes GBP JPY for my attention. The indicator I use I will try to copy below.

I am definitely interested in the pair, both because of a sympathy with what Putin is doing in Russia from a conservative, orthodox religious point of view. . . compared with the depraved, degenerated, cauldron situation as it is developing now in the US morally and in every other way, because of his encouragement of birth, instead of abortion (and putting incentives in), and also because of that swap... It is not unheard of to read of people, that is those who are paying attention to something other than the television, in the US who would prefer to have someone like Putin in control rather than the puppet we have who we cannot even blame for our woes - he only reads a teleprompter and our media is 100% controlled aside from alternative media.

PDF]FX Forecast Update: The USD rally set to extend - Danske ...
www.danskebank.com/.../FX_Forecast_Update_September_...

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Danske Bank
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Sep 15, 2014 - we expect the USD/RUB to climb significantly in 12 months, as the USD is set to strengthen significantly, and we see some seasonal relief for the rouble in Q1 15 on the back of a stronger ... growth to hold up well, around trend growth in 2015. ......

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 vS_PivotsD_v4.mq4   31 KB | 302 downloads
  • #190
  • Nov 7, 2014 11:16pm Nov 7, 2014 11:16pm
Hey Greenstar,

Glad you're able to pull some quick profits going long USD/RUB, it's certainly working quick right now, which is good since you don't have to hold very long and eat the rollover.

As crazy as GBP/JPY has been lately, I agree, this pair is even crazier! I'd love for it to stay in the 40-50 range, as I'll constantly be trading in and out, but only on the short side.
  • #191
  • Nov 7, 2014 11:52pm Nov 7, 2014 11:52pm
http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/758549
  • #192
  • Nov 9, 2014 3:20pm Nov 9, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting Greenstar
I have tried twice to access the link below which freezes the computer. Maybe you'll have better luck. Cut and pasted what appeared in the search engine. It is surprising to me that several bank forecasts, some as recent as October 30, predicted no higher than 44 for 2014. My thinking now is - it went up to that high we all saw this week and the weekly and daily candles certainly look different from the history of the last few years. BUT, that high may be tested (read: almost certainly will be tested imho). I did sell several times, sustaining profits...
Oh, well, couldn't access the article either.

That being said, I'd be wary (in part) of Danske Bank's forecast (which is dated September 15th, prior to the most recent bullish movement). I am basically on board with Danske Bank's assessment of being bullish on the Greenback, but now the Ruble is in extremely oversold territory, so I don't know if Danske Bank anticipated this movement (or any one else for that matter).

Additionally, there is something unusual about trading USD/RUB (can't speak about EUR/RUB; not offered by my broker), and that is that the Russian Central Bank (at least up until last week) has telegraphed the timing of their interventions by tying them to price's reaching the upper band of the established Ruble/Euro/USD basket. This has been great fodder for speculators who know exactly when to exit their positions, since the RCB has told them when they will intervene. Point in fact, I had relied on this policy too in fashioning shorts, expecting intervention at the prescribed price. Unfortunately for me, the RCB's interventions have been too small to rout speculative buyers out of the market (see previous Bloomberg articles, above), although the RCB has announced that it will cease announcing the timing of interventions and has all but abandoned the use of a trading band ... . So this week may be one for the bears in light of these policy changes (remains to be seen).

From a purely philosophical standpoint, I do feel somewhat for Russian citizens who are at the mercy of their leaders' decision-making processes and are now left holding the short end of the stick due to no fault of their own (ironically familiar theme).

But I am shorting the pair (and hence going long Ruble) due to nothing other than the positive swap ... . (Although there is the small fact that my Russian wife would probably kill me in my sleep in some undetectable manner were I to be shorting it ... .)
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #193
  • Nov 10, 2014 9:19am Nov 10, 2014 9:19am
Looks like the RCB successfully "defended" 47.00 and now 46.00 ... .

My net position is at 44.022, and I may start peeling off positions if price is driven below that, but I've got no idea what the RCB thinks a reasonable value is at this point in time. On the 4H, there isn't much resistance until 41.50 if you use the ZigZag indicator ... . Classic Pivots (rounded to the nearest .25): S1 45.25, S2 43.75, S3 40.25, S4 36.75.

I think I'll shoot for the S3 at 40.25 ... . The S4 seems a little greedy ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #194
  • Nov 10, 2014 10:38am Nov 10, 2014 10:38am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Looks like the RCB successfully "defended" 47.00 and now 46.00 ... . My net position is at 44.022, and I may start peeling off positions if price is driven below that, but I've got no idea what the RCB thinks a reasonable value is at this point in time. On the 4H, there isn't much resistance until 41.50 if you use the ZigZag indicator ... . Classic Pivots (rounded to the nearest .25): S1 45.25, S2 43.75, S3 40.25, S4 36.75. I think I'll shoot for the S3 at 40.25 ... . The S4 seems a little greedy ... .
The 40 level certainly seems reasonable, as this is where they wanted it capped before.

Once you've closed out your position are you finished with this pair as it's been frustratingly long to get the move? I think I'm going to continue trading in and out on the short side, small positions and daily swap collection seem nice. I don't see this thing going much lower than the peak (40% + decline in a year is absurd), I see volatility eventually dying out and a much smaller range, maybe 38-42 playing out over a long time.
  • #195
  • Nov 10, 2014 10:45am Nov 10, 2014 10:45am
I have recently become more interested in this pair as of late, for obvious reasons, I;m just curious with everything going on(ie interest rate hikes, capital outflows, geopolitical tensions etc etc) if it may be a little to unpredictable? Could you point me in the right direction as far as a news source?
  • #196
  • Nov 10, 2014 10:57am Nov 10, 2014 10:57am
Quoting thadakman
{quote} The 40 level certainly seems reasonable, as this is where they wanted it capped before. Once you've closed out your position are you finished with this pair as it's been frustratingly long to get the move? I think I'm going to continue trading in and out on the short side, small positions and daily swap collection seem nice. I don't see this thing going much lower than the peak (40% + decline in a year is absurd), I see volatility eventually dying out and a much smaller range, maybe 38-42 playing out over a long time.
Well, I originally entered short as a long-term carry trade. I think that's still a good proposition, but it requires patience, and I did not anticipate the wildness the currency pair would experience last month. The key, I think, to maintaining a good position in a carry trade is to take positions at price extremes. The problem here is "Where is the extreme?" At least in the past few weeks, new extremes seem to unfold on a daily basis ... . If it settles down (much as EUR/TRY eventually did after substantially weakening in the Lira prompted Turkish Central Bank intervention), it may be more workable as a good carry with small positions at price extremes. So, I'll continue shorting it for a while ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #197
  • Nov 10, 2014 11:32am Nov 10, 2014 11:32am
Quoting wyley187
I have recently become more interested in this pair as of late, for obvious reasons, I;m just curious with everything going on(ie interest rate hikes, capital outflows, geopolitical tensions etc etc) if it may be a little to unpredictable? Could you point me in the right direction as far as a news source?
Bloomberg seems to be good at posting current articles regarding the Russian economy and what the Russian Central Bank is up to ... . I usually just go to www.bloomberg.com and search for "Russian Central Bank". A bunch of good stuff pops up.

But trading this pair is not for the faint of heart:

1. Anything but what I would call an "Apocalypse Stop Loss" is virtually useless. I watched the pair last night, and there were times where the spread was 100 pips. If you're going short and try to put in a "tight stop," it'll be blown repeatedly.

2. If you're going short, look at the trade as a long-term investment, much as you would look at trading a stock with dividends. It's not all about price; it's also what you'll earn in positive swap if you carry the position over a several week period. Although some have had success getting in and out of positions in short order, this is often difficult given spreads which can tighten to less than 5 pips and then widen dramatically such that you're unable to exit the trade in short order.

3. Think small. If your broker's anything like mine, the margin requirement for trading this pair is higher than others, as is the per pip cost. Think about taking positions of .25 x equity or less so that you can take small positions over time. At this point, taking a single position and then hoping for the best may not be productive.

4. Anticipate and be able to digest large, intra trade drawdowns and limit your exposure to the pair accordingly. To say that price action in this pair has been "wild" in the past several weeks is an understatement.

5. Take RCB news events with a grain of salt and don't get too excited over particular movement. The RCB has been bending over backwards to wrap its head around Ruble depreciation and how to combat it. While the market has reacted briefly to such announcements (interest rate hike, repos, trading band pronouncements, interventions), there has been little confidence in these measures over the past several weeks and buyers have been taking advantage of these dips to wade into more long positions. Late last week, the RCB signaled a change in tune as to interventions, and this has produced some Ruble strength in the early part of this week. Only time will tell if this positive development for Ruble strength is short-lived or if the RCB is finally really serious about the depth of its interventions and its planned rout of Ruble speculators who they blame in part for driving the currency into the dirt.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #198
  • Nov 10, 2014 11:42am Nov 10, 2014 11:42am
Quoting wyley187
I have recently become more interested in this pair as of late, for obvious reasons, I;m just curious with everything going on(ie interest rate hikes, capital outflows, geopolitical tensions etc etc) if it may be a little to unpredictable? Could you point me in the right direction as far as a news source?
... But the thing that can add to its predictability is the manner in which the RCB addresses the depreciation in the Ruble. If they're going to half ass it with these $350 million interventions, that's just not going to hack it. As a Bloomberg article pointed out, a single $1 billion intervention could rout speculators who are shorting the Ruble (hence, going long EUR/RUB or long USD/RUB) and, coupled with the onerous swap associated with taking a long position in these pairs, could drain the attractiveness out of going long and return the Ruble to some semblance of reasonable value.

That being said, there is little the RCB can do about oil prices, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...se-growth.html, or about any escalation of the situation in Ukraine.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #199
  • Nov 10, 2014 11:50am Nov 10, 2014 11:50am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Bloomberg seems to be good at posting current articles regarding the Russian economy and what the Russian Central Bank is up to ... . I usually just go to www.bloomberg.com and search for "Russian Central Bank". A bunch of good stuff pops up. But trading this pair is not for the faint of heart: 1. Anything but what I would call an "Apocalypse Stop Loss" is virtually useless. I watched the pair last night, and there were times where the spread was 100 pips. If you're going short and try to put in a "tight...
Thank you very much! I am looking at this pair for basically what you pointed out as a positive carry that I would hold for weeks/months, I am a position trader so drawdowns don't concern me a whole lot, I have noticed with my broker that the margin requirement is quite high, so I will have to adjust my positions accordingly. Is there any particular reason for the wide spreads at certain times of the day? or is it just random? Sorry for asking what may seem like silly questions but I don't like to dive into new pairs without being a little informed. I have a few more questions but I've taken up enough of your time. Thank you for the great response!
  • #200
  • Nov 10, 2014 1:54pm Nov 10, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting wyley187
{quote} Thank you very much! I am looking at this pair for basically what you pointed out as a positive carry that I would hold for weeks/months, I am a position trader so drawdowns don't concern me a whole lot, I have noticed with my broker that the margin requirement is quite high, so I will have to adjust my positions accordingly. Is there any particular reason for the wide spreads at certain times of the day? or is it just random? Sorry for asking what may seem like silly questions but I don't like to dive into new pairs without being a little...
It seems that the ranges tighten during the London and New York sessions, with trading drying up to a virtual trickle during the Sydney/Asian sessions (which is when the spread widens dramatically). You'll virtually never want to buy at market, but rather set up entry orders in advance. Recently, it seems that the psychological levels (for example, 47, 46, 45, etc.) have been the levels that traders have been keying off of, but you might also look at how price is reacting off of the Classic Daily Pivot Points.

Today, for example, price appears to have met resistance at the Pivot Point, but has not sunken meaningfully past the S1 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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