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The similarity system

  • #11,741
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:23pm Nov 6, 2014 9:23pm
Quoting FX-Jay
I can't believe how the level of discussion in this thread advanced in the last couple of weeks. Amazing! Keep up the great work guys. I see some really interesting ideas that are worth developing out there. I hope I'll be able to go through all of it during the weekend. For those looking for some trade recommendations, keep your eyes on EURNZD & NZDCHF, those are going to be my next 2 big trades. I think by now I don't really need to give much more details right? You should be able to spot the direction I'm going to trade towards. I'll be open...
Long for EURNZD and for some reason my broker is not showing NZDCHF so I can't see why but then again ditto if its already long EURNZD
I want more brain power!
  • #11,742
  • Nov 6, 2014 10:00pm Nov 6, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting jusiur
{quote} jay, your post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7842544#post7842544) gives some hints?
The post you are mentioning gives hints for EURNZD in this case.
The NZDCHF is taken from a different (by related) perspective. After all those 2 pairs are highly correlated.

Seems we are ready for takeoff
  • #11,743
  • Edited 11:53pm Nov 6, 2014 10:04pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} The post you are mentioning gives hints for EURNZD in this case. The NZDCHF is taken from a different (by related) perspective. After all those 2 pairs are highly correlated. Seems we are ready for takeoff

I put both in, 1 long and 1 short, both floating profit already, plus an EU, UChf, and EChf to round it out!

Edited: Seems we are trading towards across-pair DS...
  • #11,744
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:16pm Nov 6, 2014 11:16pm
Quoting Rparm
{quote} I've been trying to trade back as you described with various stoploss and "K" estimations for about 3 days now on demo... with no luck, glad to know atleast I'm not alone on this boat
Normally I focus on only the numbers and stats - tonight I've been looking at charts with the data in mind...

1. TZ's generally oscillate Top/Bottom
2. Mid TZ's should not be traded against
3. The first PTZ of a direction is very unlikely to become a TZ

So - if we know (or at least suspect) the likelihood of a PTZ becoming a TZ increases exponentially with time, then, once 50% of the time has elapsed, it might be reasonable to expect a PTZ to be a TZ. If it is a TZ, given observations 1-3 above, I think we can develop some rules for high probability trades.

Looking through the charts, the rules I came up with seem to work on all tf's. I will code for M1 and try it out.
  • #11,745
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:31pm Nov 6, 2014 11:31pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Looking through the charts, the rules I came up with seem to work on all tf's. I will code for M1 and try it out.
Don't you get killed by the spreads on the M1? I did something with daily and used H1 with momentum indicators for my entry, but when I scaled down to M15 with M1 for entry the spread ate all the profits. Or are you just collecting statistics at this point?
  • #11,746
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:49pm Nov 6, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting Kenergy
{quote} Don't you get killed by the spreads on the M1? I did something with daily and used H1 with momentum indicators for my entry, but when I scaled down to M15 with M1 for entry the spread ate all the profits. Or are you just collecting statistics at this point?
My bread and butter is a high frequency EA so I am comfy on tick charts. However, all of this Sim and TZ testing I am doing is with a retail broker, so I am looking at much larger spreads - avg 0.65 pts for EU with the pricing I have. I am also testing live so I can compute real costs. Will see how it works out in terms of which tf maximizes profit, and which tf has the flattest equity curve. If markets are truly fractal, M1 should give me prospective results faster than any other tf, just with different cost %'s. If the strategy works but the costs are too high, I can move up a tf before ramping into any size. Need the strategy to be working first though!
  • #11,747
  • Nov 7, 2014 12:49am Nov 7, 2014 12:49am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Seems we are ready for takeoff
Aye, aye, capitan!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZDM30.png Size: 46 KB
  • #11,748
  • Nov 7, 2014 12:55am Nov 7, 2014 12:55am
easy 16pips. Buy UJ TP 115.508.
  • #11,749
  • Nov 7, 2014 12:57am Nov 7, 2014 12:57am
Quoting FX-Jay
I can't believe how the level of discussion in this thread advanced in the last couple of weeks. Amazing! Keep up the great work guys. I see some really interesting ideas that are worth developing out there. I hope I'll be able to go through all of it during the weekend. For those looking for some trade recommendations, keep your eyes on EURNZD & NZDCHF, those are going to be my next 2 big trades. I think by now I don't really need to give much more details right? You should be able to spot the direction I'm going to trade towards. I'll be open...

Hi Jay,

what do you think about the image below? Is something right?

Thank you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: setupFXJay.7.11.14.jpg Size: 214 KB
  • #11,750
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:18am Nov 7, 2014 1:18am
A sample chart analysis to share with the group. G/N has a potential zone up top there. Now according to theory, there is a 97% chance that PTZ is going to get revisited. The trend is clearly up. There has been some pullback. Looks like a potential opportunity to me. What do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDH4.png Size: 71 KB
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #11,751
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:32am Nov 7, 2014 1:32am
Quoting LITEchild
easy 16pips. Buy UJ TP 115.508.
stop out. Error = London not yet open. Daylight Time shift adjustments. Pre-london stop hunt in progress?...fingers crossed...
  • #11,752
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:53am Nov 7, 2014 1:53am
Stophunt usually hints at much stronger move ahead. rescaling in entries. Revised target, 115.900, Stop 114.900(USDJPY).
  • #11,753
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:53am Nov 7, 2014 1:53am
Still holding USDCHF short. Short from about the top blue line(filled) targeting the 2nd blue line(unfilled) for about 40 pips. Well see what happens. plan on closing trade or atleast protecting it aggressively before NFP comes out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-11-07 at 12.51.11 AM.png Size: 38 KB
Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #11,754
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:12am Nov 7, 2014 2:12am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} stop out. Error = London not yet open. Daylight Time shift adjustments. Pre-london stop hunt in progress?...fingers crossed...
UJ is coming down.

We have something to correct. Will be corrected with 99% probability today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Skærmbillede 2014-11-07 kl. 09.10.38.png Size: 22 KB
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #11,755
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:18am Nov 7, 2014 2:18am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} UJ is coming down. We have something to correct. Will be corrected with 99% probability today. {image}

I agree UJ & UCHF both have a couple big zones they need to revisit before heading north.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-11-07 at 12.59.23 AM.png Size: 40 KB
Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #11,756
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:22am Nov 7, 2014 2:22am
I thought i had found my EUREKA moment until now. infact I had to blow a few accounts till this moment. I will post a demo explorer for myself and I will share what i have learnt. All thanks go to the boss EURUSDD. If you want to know how true TZs form read his thread on How to use indicators properly. When you have understood the concept he laid there, open your chart and apply your TZ indicator. I will share more soon.
Regards.
My help is in the name of the Lord who made heaven and earth.
  • #11,757
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:52am Nov 7, 2014 2:52am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} UJ is coming down. We have something to correct. Will be corrected with 99% probability today. {image}
you mean 114.6? hmmm...well today is freaky friday, so really anything is possible. My liquidity zone extends as far as 115.
  • #11,758
  • Nov 7, 2014 3:32am Nov 7, 2014 3:32am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} you mean 114.6? hmmm...well today is freaky friday, so really anything is possible. My liquidity zone extends as far as 115.
114.511

I don't believe in the randomness, and i have stats to back that statement. But my current trading style isn't similar to what's discussed her at the moment (nice progress btw), so i'll pull out again
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #11,759
  • Nov 7, 2014 3:58am Nov 7, 2014 3:58am
[quote=Ullen;7853936]{quote} 114.511

  • #11,760
  • Nov 7, 2014 4:06am Nov 7, 2014 4:06am
[quote=LITEchild;7853987]
Quoting Ullen
{quote} 114.511
Nice error at that price.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
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