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  • #221
  • Edited 9:39am Nov 6, 2014 9:16am | Edited 9:39am
No f@ck you stop today, well done mate. Your TP down at S3 not far off being hit I see, what's your plan for NFP if you're still in this trade?

I think I might be a bit too intraday for your thread but I'll risk posting this anyway, it's because of what Ken911 was saying about news.

I understand the position of staying out, I used to do it myself, and with NFP Friday I always make sure I've got something else to do , but personally I find that if the set-up PA looks good then the news is often just a turbo boost to TP.

I'm not advocating trading the news per se, that's a different ball game and one I left behind a long time ago, but I will trade through news.

Anyway, I took a short in the EJ which got boosted by news.

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  • #222
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:52am Nov 6, 2014 9:52am
Quoting Quidsey
No f@ck you stop today, well done mate. Your TP down at S3 not far off being hit I see, what's your plan for NFP if you're still in this trade? I think I might be a bit too intraday for your thread but I'll risk posting this anyway, it's because of what Ken911 was saying about news. I understand the position of staying out, I used to do it myself, and with NFP Friday I always make sure I've got something else to do , but personally I find that if the set-up PA looks good then the news is often just a turbo boost to TP. I'm not advocating trading...
Quidsey...Nice trade! Very well done...

Intraday is just fine by me. I only chose the longer time frames to allow people to see the signals well enough in advance to watch them and follow along if they like. Your trade would've been a very difficult one for me to make. Right about the center of your chart (after the first higher low) I would probably have been Long (if I had been trading this chart. But with all the choppy price action and the general "ranging" look to the chart I most like would've been on the side lines...so you did very well from my point of view.

Ah...plan for NFP...as we are out on the daily and weekly charts, I will just see what the end of day and end of week chart look like and take it from there...the beauty of the larger time frames is that most of the intraday news announcements will only confirm (or negate) any current trading theories. And, as you say, be the catalyst for profit taking targets. Example (USD/JPY)
  • #223
  • Nov 6, 2014 10:22am Nov 6, 2014 10:22am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
I've mentioned taking the retrace & continuation trade on the YEN crosses we've been watching the past few days. It appears as though some early profit taking is beginning. Again.... We're not here to pick tops only to recognize the retrace. Fundamentally speaking EJ should provide a nice retrace opportunity at the .38 FIB level on the daily. I typically prefer a deeper retrace such as .50 or even .618. That said generally speaking a swift move such as this will correspond to a shallow retrace.

From a simplicity perspective we do have a confluence of old resistance/new support role reversal lining up nicely with the .38FIB. A confluence of signals often translate into a simple & obvious approach. The fact we're taking the continuation trade with the trend makes it even better.

I would never advocate placing a pending order & leaving it there based on any analysis. I'll be looking for price to interact with this level & provide a convincing setup on lower time frames before committing to the trade.

More importantly this is early in the game. A retrace is not even in place yet. We do however have a nasty looking rejection candle forming on the DAILY.
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  • #224
  • Nov 6, 2014 10:40am Nov 6, 2014 10:40am
Quoting eggs
... More importantly this is early in the game. A retrace is not even in place yet. We do however have a nasty looking rejection candle forming on the DAILY.
Excellent "heads up" note on EJ. I will keep this in my sights. I would also add the the bottom and top of your fibonacci study are the 2014 high and low, which have been both set in the last 4 weeks...as we have clearly rejected lower prices...I believe a bullish trend is forming again assuming we get a higher low...I would anticipate the next couple of weeks...but we'll just have to see.

Thanks again.
  • #225
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:24am Nov 6, 2014 11:24am
Hey there Eggs...I have a question...one I think could help all of us.

When you look at levels...do you decide based on open/close prices or based on high/low prices? In other words, to you use real candle bodies or the wicks.

I ask because in my study of level (which is still ongoing), I cannot seem to find anything that the price action consistently does. Sometimes it will bounce from levels formed at wicks. (example this last high on USD/CAD, and the last move up on EUR/USD. Other times price will bounce from levels formed by real candle bodies. (example the last low on USD/JPY seems to have clearly bounced from a consolidation level formed by real bodies - as seen on a weekly chart).

Do you have a favorite? Can you enlighten me (us) on what works most consistently for you?
  • #226
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:42am Nov 6, 2014 11:42am
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Intraday is just fine by me. I only chose the longer time frames to allow people to see the signals well enough in advance to watch them and follow along if they like. Your trade would've been a very difficult one for me to make. Right about the center of your chart (after the first higher low) I would probably have been Long (if I had been trading this chart. But with all the choppy price action and the general "ranging" look to the chart I most like would've been on the side lines...so you did very well from my point of view.

Ah...plan...
Thanks.
  • #227
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:55am Nov 6, 2014 11:55am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting gspajon
Hey there Eggs...I have a question...one I think could help all of us. When you look at levels...do you decide based on open/close prices or based on high/low prices? In other words, to you use real candle bodies or the wicks. I ask because in my study of level (which is still ongoing), I cannot seem to find anything that the price action consistently does. Sometimes it will bounce from levels formed at wicks. (example this last high on USD/CAD, and the last move up on EUR/USD. Other times price will bounce from levels formed by real candle bodies....
Definitely a good question & one I find myself pondering quite a bit. In short I find candle body open & closes more relevant on longer TF's such as Monthly, Weekly, & even Daily. Wicks are more relevant when considering shorter TF's beginning with 4HR charts.

More importantly the relevance of either is better determined within context. Such as... Has the area in question been relevant support/resistance in the recent past. If so how many times. & is there a pattern in place with an OBVIOUS respect of either wicks or bodies. Sometimes there is both. Another consideration are psyche levels such as .00 handles like 1.2400 & 1.2500. If the wick or body/close lines up neatly with a nice round level I'll give precedent there & consider it as confluence.

Many traders won't consider a level 'broken' until price closes above it on a longer TF. This would support using open/close bodies for relevance.

Probably a better answer to the question is to stick with our mantra Simple & Obvious. If the answer does not jump out at me then I'm likely looking too hard.

One last consideration I'll point out is I like to use open/close candle bodies when placing Profit Targets. Conversely I like using wicks when placing Stop Losses. It speaks to the nature of price. I don't want to miss my PT's by a matter of pips so I'll use the bodies. & I don't want to be stopped out unless price is really breaching new territory so I hide my stops behind a wick high or low.

I realize you probably know all this & just wanted to get some input from others but that's my short answer lol...
  • #228
  • Nov 6, 2014 12:05pm Nov 6, 2014 12:05pm
Thank you eggs...I hadn't considered using different ideas on shorter time frames. I often find myself in a quandary about which level is "the right" level, especially when evaluating where I might anticipate a pull back to come to. This is especially true if the pull back is very slight (only able to come down to the 27.3% number. Often I am unable to find a confluent level unless I use wicks...which I find my confidence in wicks waning. I will keep in in mind and try to mention it in future chart evaluations....thanks again...well said.
  • #229
  • Edited 12:19pm Nov 6, 2014 12:07pm | Edited 12:19pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
As an example I would consider & call out to others that the 135.50 level marked with the red line is a more relevant level of support that the wick low indicated by the white line.
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Hypothetically if price were to rush to the downside here & I were in on the trade I would have my sights set on the 135.50 Red Line level as a viable profit target more so than the wick low.

Conversely if you'll reference back the trade I took off the 50% retrace on said pin bar in the example below I had stops below the wick low. So really this question of candle body close or wick high/low must be taken into context.
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It was all setup by a false break of the 135.50 level. Price hurried back above that line & The 50% FIB lined up with that level as well. I didn't want to miss getting filled on the order so I elected to go with the candle body close as opposed to any extreme wick lows around that level.
  • #230
  • Nov 6, 2014 12:17pm Nov 6, 2014 12:17pm
Quoting eggs
As an example I would consider & call out to others that the 135.50 level marked with the red line is a more relevant level of support that the wick low indicated by the white line. {image} Hypothetically if price were to rush to the downside here & I were in on the trade I would have my sights set on the 135.50 Red Line level as a viable profit target more so than the wick low. Conversely if you'll reference back the trade I took off the 50% retrace on said pin bar in the example below I had stops below the wick low. So really this question of...
I understand completely...I am wanting to develop a "rule" about using levels when evaluating retraces, or pull backs...however I cannot see one forth coming...and I'm not really sure I should have a rule. The idea of a "logical" support or resistance level seems the best. Vague enough to be true, specific enough to remove false entries...I think for me confluence will be the key.

I absolutely use wicks for stops...as has been seen here on this forum. and my targets are simple calculations...however I find it almost "magic' to see that the targets usually come in right about where levels form or have already formed.
  • #231
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:21pm Nov 6, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting eggs
{quote} More importantly the relevance of either is better determined within context.
Yes, I agree.

I think it's a mistake to be too precious about one way or another, it's swings and roundabouts. On the wicks you risk missing the trade and on the close you might have to sweat a bit of DD. Markets going to do it's thang.

Here's an example from today where I was looking to get with the break on a retest and what I considered my lines of support were.

These look to me to be a 'logical average' if you like, and then you just have to deal with what happens next.

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  • #232
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:33pm Nov 6, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Yes, I agree. I think it's a mistake to be too precious about one way or another, it's swings and roundabouts. On the wicks you risk missing the trade and on the close you might have to sweat a bit of DD. Markets going to do it's thang. Here's an example from today where I was looking to get with the break on a retest and what I considered my lines of support were. These look to me to be a 'logical average' if you like, and then you just have to deal with what happens next. {image}
Excellent examples Quidsey, thank you very much. Excellent evaluation.
  • #233
  • Nov 6, 2014 1:40pm Nov 6, 2014 1:40pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Excellent examples Quidsey, thank you very much. Excellent evaluation.
Yeah Quidsey... Very nice examples. Pure Price Action setups. Break & Retest. To be honest one could be profitable from trading this alone.
  • #234
  • Nov 6, 2014 2:08pm Nov 6, 2014 2:08pm
Update on USD/CAD:

Slow day today...no doubt preparing for tomorrow's NFP. I have noted that (although today is not yet over) we are forming an inner day representing the consolidation at this year's high. I have decided to move my stop up to just below the low of today's trading. This stop will lock in approximately 150 pips on the 2nd position...so no matter what happens, I've got a good trade on my hands here. I may even remove the limit and let this go...I'll have to think about it...its not part of the plan.
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  • #235
  • Nov 6, 2014 3:00pm Nov 6, 2014 3:00pm
update on EUR/USD:

Putting into practice some of the recent discussion on levels, I have decided to change the limit on this trade. Below is a weekly chart where I have circled a level that seemed relevant as we approach a three year low. I have adjusted the limit as seen here, since the trade is now in a profit stop and that stop appears to be this week's high, I am comfortable moving the limit out a little further. Assuming NFP is favorable to the USD, I am hopeful that if this limit isn't hit tomorrow, it will come in next week. This new limit creates a potential 400+ pips trade.

update on USD/CAD:
Same story next verse, but this time I had to use the monthly chart to find the levels. This level will add an extra 200+ pips so, I'll keep my fingers crossed...I suspect this trade will soon retrace however.
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  • #236
  • Nov 6, 2014 3:25pm Nov 6, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting gspajon
update on EUR/USD: Putting into practice some of the recent discussion on levels, I have decided to change the limit on this trade. Below is a weekly chart where I have circled a level that seemed relevant as we approach a three year low. I have adjusted the limit as seen here, since the trade is now in a profit stop and that stop appears to be this week's high, I am comfortable moving the limit out a little further. Assuming NFP is favorable to the USD, I am hopeful that if this limit isn't hit tomorrow, it will come in next week. This new limit...
Fwiw I have exactly the same level marked off.
  • #237
  • Nov 7, 2014 7:33am Nov 7, 2014 7:33am
Stopped out on USD/CAD for 151.4 pips on the 2nd position...so far anyway, it never did make the 2xR mark. Assuming this is the beginning of a retrace, I will begin stalking the next signal.
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  • #238
  • Nov 7, 2014 12:40pm Nov 7, 2014 12:40pm
OK all you level finding gurus...I am currently stalking the next retrace level on USD/CAD. Today's price action looks fairly clear that a retrace is in progress...(good news on the Canadian Govt. front). So this area highlighted in blue is where I'll be watching to see if a clear price action signal forms. The alignment seems to be right along the 50% and 61.8% fib levels...

Lets all watch together shall we?
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  • #239
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:34pm Nov 7, 2014 2:34pm
My dow got stopped out. Gold long from 1145 sl now 1159 and will be traling till 1200+

GS- when you write your rules plz save as PDF so we all share

hava a good weekend all
  • #240
  • Nov 7, 2014 5:35pm Nov 7, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting goldfinger
My dow got stopped out. Gold long from 1145 sl now 1159 and will be traling till 1200+ GS- when you write your rules plz save as PDF so we all share hava a good weekend all
Hi GF...I guess you like those counter trend trades...I hope you are better at them than I was. Gold is in a down trend on just about every chart I look at, with the possible exception of a 15 min chart. If that is your time frame, OK..but I hope you make your target.

As far as rules...I won't be posting any. I don't feel the need to impose a set of rules on anyone but myself. I believe I've been pretty transparent about how I find trades, but if you have a specific question, please let me know. Just to be clear these are the steps I follow:

  1. Find a trend (higher highs /higher lows=bullish trend; Lower highs/lower lows=bearish trend)
  2. WAIT for a pull back or retrace (this is the patience part)
  3. Look for a price action signal at a "logical" support or resistance area (this is the discipline part)
  4. Enter in the direction of the trend and set a stop AND a limit

That's pretty much it. I have some specific criteria as to what constitutes certain candle formations. Those are what I've found work best for me. I found these because I kept a lot of data over many, many years. I wouldn't presume to say YOU should use them too. I would suggest that you gather your own data and make your own observations to determine your own set of rules, or engagement criteria.

Again, for ME, I've found that trading only the simple and obvious trades works best and that "attempting" anything else only take money out of my account. That is the point of this thread...follow along and see if it is true. Watch and see...maybe I'll end up going down in flames...in front of everyone...But I am going to do my best not to.

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