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AUD/USD

  • #86,661
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:15am Nov 5, 2014 10:15am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Quote "Citi said they are short AUD/USD with a potential target of 0.8050"
So Citi are being kind enough to let us in on their trades?
This was a Credit Suisse signal back end of June.We all know what happened then.

"We stay bullish for a break above 1.7063 to test 1.7118 next, then our core medium-term target at 1.7332." Credit Suisse
GBPUSD has rallied to retest the recent high at 1.7063, which is again capping for now. However, we look for an eventual extension above to test trend resistance, now at 1.7118. We allow for another dip back from here, before moving onto our long-held medium-term target at 1.7330/32 – the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 collapse – which we would look to cap for a correction lower. Bigger picture though, we target 1.8235. Read more: Market Watch
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #86,662
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:35am Nov 5, 2014 10:35am
Quoting Jenx
{quote} So Citi are being kind enough to let us in on their trades? This was a Credit Suisse signal back end of June.We all know what happened then. "We stay bullish for a break above 1.7063 to test 1.7118 next, then our core medium-term target at 1.7332." Credit Suisse GBPUSD has rallied to retest the recent high at 1.7063, which is again capping for now. However, we look for an eventual extension above to test trend resistance, now at 1.7118. We allow for another dip back from here, before moving onto our long-held medium-term target at 1.7330/32...
Dear Jenx:

Thank you for clearing that up. What is your explanation of the huge drop before the news today? TIA
  • #86,663
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:37am Nov 5, 2014 10:37am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} Dear Jenx: Thank you for clearing that up. What is your explanation of the huge drop before the news today? TIA
Bear trap?
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #86,664
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:43am Nov 5, 2014 10:43am
That release was 27 June. I had already started building my short.As soon as I read that it was time to ramp it up.They set up a bull trap the next 2/3 days.What a bargain !
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #86,665
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:44am Nov 5, 2014 10:44am
I'm taking a long position at this level. Target is .8700. Reason being is the data that's coming out tonight. I think we'll see a pop here and then a significant drop on Friday.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #86,666
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:53am Nov 5, 2014 10:53am
Quoting Jenx
{quote} Bear trap?
I mean the price of AUDUSD dropped heavily today before the news was release and it continued below 0.85xxx. Do you have any explanation for this strange action?
  • #86,667
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:58am Nov 5, 2014 10:58am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} I mean the price of AUDUSD dropped heavily today before the news was release and it continued below 0.85xxx. Do you have any explanation for this strange action?
Like I said, bear trap ?
IF it is a bear trap,thats what they do. RBA "Aud overpriced", All the big houses calling metal junk, funds screaming USD only safe haven Bla Bla Bla. Then you get the big funds putting out releases like this.Soon after price seems to confirm it all, all the mugs jump on board and BANG, Bobs yer uncle!
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #86,668
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:00am Nov 5, 2014 11:00am
Quoting Jenx
{quote} Like I said, bear trap ? IF it is a bear trap,thats what they do. RBA "Aud overpriced", All the big houses calling metal junk, funds screaming USD only safe haven Bla Bla Bla. Then you get the big funds putting out releases like this.Soon after price seems to confirm it all, all the mugs jump on board and BANG, Bobs yer uncle!
How about majority of retail traders still long on AUD? Won't it mean, they will keep doing this nonsense to shake more of us out? Checked w a few brokers...
  • #86,669
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:03am Nov 5, 2014 11:03am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} I mean the price of AUDUSD dropped heavily today before the news was release and it continued below 0.85xxx. Do you have any explanation for this strange action?
We need a daily close below .8647. That is Support. If the price goes back up to this level and beyond, which in my opinion I think it will. That would be a bear trap, or a false breakout, because the price attempted to break support but failed.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #86,670
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:14am Nov 5, 2014 11:14am
AUDCAD takes focus today with its move literally straight down 200+ pips. With high impact data later tonight and RBA monetary policy statement tomorrow: looks like RBA wont need to talk down there currency as market already taking care of it!
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #86,671
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:14am Nov 5, 2014 11:14am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} How about majority of retail traders still long on AUD? Won't it mean, they will keep doing this nonsense to shake more of us out? Checked w a few brokers...
Absolutely.Thats the whole point.Fuel the move.
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #86,672
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:23am Nov 5, 2014 11:23am
Quoting Jenx
{quote} Like I said, bear trap ? IF it is a bear trap,thats what they do. RBA "Aud overpriced", All the big houses calling metal junk, funds screaming USD only safe haven Bla Bla Bla. Then you get the big funds putting out releases like this.Soon after price seems to confirm it all, all the mugs jump on board and BANG, Bobs yer uncle!
OK, THX
  • #86,673
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:26am Nov 5, 2014 11:26am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} How about majority of retail traders still long on AUD? Won't it mean, they will keep doing this nonsense to shake more of us out? Checked w a few brokers...
"Checked w a few brokers...", you mean actually you contacted some brokers on this matter? If yes, what exactly they told you? TIA
  • #86,674
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:27am Nov 5, 2014 11:27am
Quoting Jenx
{quote} Absolutely.Thats the whole point.Fuel the move.

UK closed .8588 lets see how NY closes
Hmmm too much downward move not too attractive to add shorts here for now

And yea, looks like RBA need not talk down so much anymore... after today
  • #86,675
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:28am Nov 5, 2014 11:28am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} "Checked w a few brokers...", you mean actually you contacted some brokers on this matter? If yes, what exactly they told you? TIA

U can check the sentiments or open positions of retail traders (small guys like us). It's available...
  • #86,676
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:35am Nov 5, 2014 11:35am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} OK, THX
Be careful. I believe that this is what is happening and am building a long position.I also realise this may not be the case.When at this stage I keep a close eye on my margin and NEVER let it fall below 50%. If things start to go tits up I'm not afraid to reduce it by taking a loss on the trades furthest away, thereby bringing my net price closer to me.
If and when it makes its move in my direction it's happy days as I've got that nice cushion at the bottom/top and I can start being a bit more aggressive.
Remember ,leverage can kill you as well as being your friend.
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #86,677
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:36am Nov 5, 2014 11:36am
Quoting Jenx
{quote} Be careful. I believe that this is what is happening and am building a long position.I also realise this may not be the case.When at this stage I keep a close eye on my margin and NEVER let it fall below 50%. If things start to go tits up I'm not afraid to reduce it by taking a loss on the trades furthest away, thereby bringing my net price closer to me. If and when it makes its move in my direction it's happy days as I've got that nice cushion at the bottom/top and I can start being a bit more aggressive. Remember ,leverage can kill you...

thanks for sharing advice. much appreciated
  • #86,678
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:36am Nov 5, 2014 11:36am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} U can check the sentiments or open positions of retail traders (small guys like us). It's available...
Thank you. I just checked the sentiment on Dailyfx and the interesting part is the LONG % on AUDUSD is the highest among all other pairs mentioned in the report which is 70%.

http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment
  • #86,679
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:39am Nov 5, 2014 11:39am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} I mean the price of AUDUSD dropped heavily today before the news was release and it continued below 0.85xxx. Do you have any explanation for this strange action?
that was a leg I been talking about couple weeks ago. That is explanation. Go back and read it again. Maybe not it will make sense to you.
  • #86,680
  • Nov 5, 2014 11:40am Nov 5, 2014 11:40am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} Thank you. I just checked the sentiment on Dailyfx and the interesting part is the LONG % on AUDUSD is the highest among all other pairs mentioned in the report which is 70%. http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment
Thats partly why its still dropping
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
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