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The similarity system

  • #11,641
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:12am Nov 5, 2014 7:12am
Quoting Ezzy
{quote} Thanks Rahimseven. Its amazing how many times one has to read the same statement, in a number of different ways, and the message doesn't sink in......then all of a sudden, you casually read it once again, from someone different, and all of a sudden it clicks, human nature..... its amazing! I am glad I haven't given up. Cheers Ezzy
hello Ezzy , I totally agree with what you say because I too am reading, reading and going crazy, and one just arrived and is not so simple . There are many different and conflicting interpretations ( i think it )
I still have many things to understand (though always understand', but I'm a poker-man there the light ').
Stop, my English words are gone .
Good luck far all .
  • #11,642
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:38am Nov 5, 2014 7:38am
Hope someone else caught this TZ revisit setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: after.png Size: 274 KB
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #11,643
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:09am Nov 5, 2014 8:09am
Quoting juriFX
Hope someone else caught this TZ revisit setup {image} {image}
And what would you do if it didn't revisit this TZ in h bars ???!!! this may occur
DON'T GIVE UP
  • #11,644
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:18am Nov 5, 2014 8:18am
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} Addressed here. "I leave you with something to thinK about: it will form the basis of your success with probability and business. Suppose I have a fair coin, we all know that the probability for Head is 50% and that for tail is 50%. Now supposed I tossed the coin 6 times and I got H-H-H-H-H-H after this i tossed the coin once and got H-X-X-X-X-X The X positions are for the remaining 5 tosses. Will you bet that the remaining five positions will be H or be on the safe side and expect at least one T? That is what you need in this forex business....
Hi Rahim,

probability wise, the probability of at least one T in the next 5 will be same in your sequence here as probability of one T in 5 tosses with any other prior sequence.

i.e.

probability of at least one T in next 5 after 7 H (H H H H H H H) is same as

probability of at least one T in next 5 after 7 T (T T T T T T T).

it doesn't matter what past tosses have been when looking for probability of T in next 5. The past tosses can be 20 Ts in a row and probability of one T in next 5 still the same as if last 20 tosses are heads.

I think some people think otherwise. they think after 7 H, probability of T somehow increases but thats not true. T and H are independent events.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #11,645
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:29am Nov 5, 2014 8:29am
Quoting stt
{quote} ... T and H are independent events ...
... for a fair coin.

It should be carefully checked if this is the case for Forex timeseries.
I'd say that Eurusdd has by now at least deserved that we take his words seriously and not dismiss them without a strong argument.

k
  • #11,646
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:41am Nov 5, 2014 8:41am
Quoting hukam
updates, monthly view {image} {image} {image}

Hukam, what are the red lines on the last chart signaling/indentifying?
  • #11,647
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:44am Nov 5, 2014 8:44am
Quoting mhmdfx
{quote} And what would you do if it didn't revisit this TZ in h bars ???!!! this may occur
Take a loss? nothing is 100%.
That's what good money management is for.
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #11,648
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:53am Nov 5, 2014 8:53am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} Take a loss? nothing is 100%. That's what good money management is for.
Ok what about placing pending order sell in price of previous TZ in your picture because i twill be rare that this price will be transient with small stop loss
i think it will be more profitable than trading revisits
DON'T GIVE UP
  • #11,649
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:58am Nov 5, 2014 8:58am
Hi Everybody,

I started reading some pages of this thread yesterday and here's what I've inderstood from it:
We choose a h so only 3% of the bars are central bars of a TZ. In order to have a sure TZ, we need to wait to have h bars at the right. A Potential TZ is when the h bars at the right hasn't been formed yet.
So 2 possibilites of trading this:
*Trade the potential TZ: I can't understand how could you trade these since you have no idea what the next bars will do.
*Trade the TZ: You can trade the breakout of a TZ

The thing is that potential TZ are not that "rare" than real TZ and they "repaint".

And to me it's just like trading breakouts of swings S/R. What's the difference ?
  • #11,650
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:01am Nov 5, 2014 9:01am
Quoting stt
{quote} Hi Rahim, probability wise, the probability of at least one T in the next 5 will be same in your sequence here as probability of one T in 5 tosses with any other prior sequence. i.e. probability of at least one T in next 5 after 7 H (H H H H H H H) is same as probability of at least one T in next 5 after 7 T (T T T T T T T). it doesn't matter what past tosses have been when looking for probability of T in next 5. The past tosses can be 20 Ts in a row and probability of one T in next 5 still the same as if last 20 tosses are heads. I think...
The T and H are indeed independent, yes. The point was to understand the sequence of Hs was a rare event. Which it clearly is. As more H are tossed the rarity increases. Fear sets in, you bet the next will be H and that elusive T jumps up and slaps you in the pocket. LOL



Given the dynamic of a rare event that has statistically occurred only 3% of the time, once you see it how would you bet going forward?
  • #11,651
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:05am Nov 5, 2014 9:05am
Some M1 results for the last 10 hrs:

Entry: Confirmed TZ at price X, new visit to price X makes a PTZ and either continues or reverses Y pts. before a re-touch. Trading price+/-Y back to X.

Pairs: 18 - each pair has an h to satisfy <=3%
Total Trades: 68
Total Wins: 28

Wins are defined as whether the charted price (bid) comes back to X within h bars.

If price does not pullback by Y, the trade is not taken. There are many confirmed TZ's followed by PTZ's that become recurrent, but the pullbacks before becoming recurrent were simply not large enough to trigger a trade. So, the probabilities may be correct, but by not trading each instance, the trades are effectively being filtered for the few rare rare occurrences.

This may be a way to isolate trades to be taken away from the PTZ rather than towards it.
  • #11,652
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:17am Nov 5, 2014 9:17am
Quoting Barbaresco
Some M1 results for the last 10 hrs:
Nice! I am trying to put together a simple version myself.
I'm not much of an ea programmer, but slowly getting there.
k
  • #11,653
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:46am Nov 5, 2014 9:46am
Quoting Ralome
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7393799#post7393799 - this post has v2.60, and it has no errors either.

Thanks a lot Ralome
  • #11,654
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:47am Nov 5, 2014 9:47am
Quoting Kiads
{quote} Hi My Friend here we go, you can try to recompile it again, hopefully there's no error anymore.. , just help my friend Ralome.. hope it help and best regards MTH {file}
thanks a lot sir
  • #11,655
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:55am Nov 5, 2014 9:55am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Nice! I am trying to put together a simple version myself. I'm not much of an ea programmer, but slowly getting there. k
Let me know if you need help with code.

I am trying M1 in reverse, and moving up to M15 for the regular version. Another thought regarding the reverse version is removing the confirmed TZ as a condition and simply working from all PTZ's that have broken out by Y. Will report stats here as I have them.
  • #11,656
  • Edited 10:11am Nov 5, 2014 9:57am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} ... for a fair coin. It should be carefully checked if this is the case for Forex timeseries. I'd say that Eurusdd has by now at least deserved that we take his words seriously and not dismiss them without a strong argument. k

totally agree with you. i am not saying fx time series events are independant. in fact they are not BUT their correlation is not static and so sometimes correlation is + (trend) and sometimes it is negative (reversion).

i was just commenting on the H and T example in my post to clarify for people who sometimes get confused about the right way to look at probabilities.

As for EURUSDD, yes he certainly has unique way of looking at market even though i have to say sometimes his math might be little off. but i have lot of regard for his methods of analyzing markets and his predictions in particular.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #11,657
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:08am Nov 5, 2014 10:08am
Quoting Barbaresco
Some M1 results for the last 10 hrs: Entry: Confirmed TZ at price X, new visit to price X makes a PTZ and either continues or reverses Y pts. before a re-touch. Trading price+/-Y back to X. Pairs: 18 - each pair has an h to satisfy <=3% Total Trades: 68 Total Wins: 28 Wins are defined as whether the charted price (bid) comes back to X within h bars. If price does not pullback by Y, the trade is not taken. There are many confirmed TZ's followed by PTZ's that become recurrent, but the pullbacks before becoming recurrent were simply not large enough...
good analysis. this shows the stats that is important - how would the trading strategy based on this hypothesis perform. it shows on its own you cant trade based on this "secret" only
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #11,658
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:19am Nov 5, 2014 10:19am
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} The T and H are indeed independent, yes. The point was to understand the sequence of Hs was a rare event. Which it clearly is. As more H are tossed the rarity increases. Fear sets in, you bet the next will be H and that elusive T jumps up and slaps you in the pocket. LOL Given the dynamic of a rare event that has statistically occurred only 3% of the time, once you see it how would you bet going forward?
Whats T do you mean tail? and H means head ? how do we apply in forex Tail is the complete transient right? how about head ? would it be peirce transient or fail transient? to Transient indicator ?
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  • #11,659
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:53am Nov 5, 2014 10:53am
Quoting forextarget
{quote} Whats T do you mean tail? and H means head ? how do we apply in forex Tail is the complete transient right? how about head ? would it be peirce transient or fail transient? to Transient indicator ? {image}
My understanding is: H is T-yes, next time, high prob. T-yes is T-h . If wrong, pls correct me Rahim7, I am admiring u.
  • #11,660
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:58am Nov 5, 2014 10:58am
Quoting Exciter135
{quote} My understanding is: H is T-yes, next time, high prob. T-yes is T-h . If wrong, pls correct me Rahim7, I am admiring u.
can you show a graph that indicates this is T and this is T-h pls thnx
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