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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #2,141
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:13am Nov 5, 2014 5:13am
Not a top trender yet but hopefully will be soon. Just trying a quick reversal at BE so nothing to lose but maybe a lot to gain???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,142
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:15am Nov 5, 2014 5:15am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Foobar No, a fellow trader here by the name of Capstone told me about "Orphan pots" in poker. If you're a poker player you're understand becos apparently the best Poker players just keep taking the orphan pots when no one else is interested. but lots of orphans add up to a lot of cash at the end of the day... So he advised me to take the smaller profits as I was losing out to BE trades all day long and letting my winners disappear, so we call me grabbing the smaller momentum runs "Orphans". Just means stop holding for the longer runs...
I see, but it is very difficult to see whether it is better in the long run to wait for big winners and lots of small losers versus taking small winners and less losers. In fact the conventional wisdom is for the first. Like the markets for this week, if you looked for small winner, you would have missed the huge run in JPY
  • #2,143
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:24am Nov 5, 2014 5:24am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} This was interesting, contacted the guy and its about trading their funds for them and earning 50% of the profit you make, paid monthly.. Anyone heard of this before?? Only trouble is they want me to trade stocks, which is not really my thing but hey ho beggers can't be choosers, I guess. Anyone know of similar setups but trading Forex??? Really fancy my chances of earning serious bucks trading forex as know it inside out now but Stocks??? Hmmm not so sure??? Anyone know of someone wanting a forex trader to trade their funds for...
There are companies like this. What you are talking about is called a prop trader. There are firms that hire prop traders. Just do a Google search. I doubt they will hire someone who has only traded in demo however. You have this down. Like I have been telling you and moneyflow echoed, GO LIVE! Seriously, find a couple of things around your house, put them on eBay and sell them. Take that 25 or 50 pounds and deposit it into a live account. This is step 1. You need this before you can think about trading other peoples money.

Demonstrate success with your live account, then think about others cash. It will change things though. A lot! Emotionally and mentally I mean. Personally, I would consider being a pool manager instead of a prop trader. This lets you keep the flexibility of trading on your own while still making profit off of trading others money. This is my goal.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #2,144
  • Edited 5:57am Nov 5, 2014 5:25am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting foobar
{quote} I see, but it is very difficult to see whether it is better in the long run to wait for big winners and lots of small losers versus taking small winners and less losers. In fact the conventional wisdom is for the first. Like the markets for this week, if you looked for small winner, you would have missed the huge run in JPY

Ah ha!! A man after my own heart, that is the million dollar question my friend, thats what I'm sort of tussling with here day in day out. Do I hold em or fold em????

As for missing the run in JPY , you've obviously not read my thread from earlier this week when I took 600plus pips out of GBPJPY that was a good day for sure...

Only trouble is it then made me think I'll hold and the next day yesterday I let over 200 pips go in break even trades!!! So yep know where you're coming from and if you have the answer I'm all ears..

Or anyone else for that matter, whats the solution????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,145
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:36am Nov 5, 2014 5:36am
Quoting foobar
{quote} I see, but it is very difficult to see whether it is better in the long run to wait for big winners and lots of small losers versus taking small winners and less losers. In fact the conventional wisdom is for the first. Like the markets for this week, if you looked for small winner, you would have missed the huge run in JPY
That is correct foobar. It is the burning questions of everyone wrestling with GREED. Remember, that run was the exception, not the rule. The point is, we don't know...I am not here to gamble that every run will go 100 pips because I know the majority will not. I am here to make profit! When I have a stack of chips in front of me from taking the pots that the table is not really interested in, I get to play the big pots with other peoples money! If you see, on a bigger picture that the M1 is turning at a H1 or daily support or resistance, you may wait for the M1 signal, then play it for a longer run. That would make sense, but in most of our scenarios, orphans are key and they keep you at the table longer. Baseball games are won by hitting singles, not home runs. We love the home run, but it is not a building block of winning the game.

If you wanted to, you could bank half at a small number of pips, then let the rest run. That might make you feel better and would make sense. You could also use a trailing stop, or say every 5 pips profit, I will move my stop loss 5 pips. There are many ways to do it. Just remember, long runs are the exception, not the rule. FX ranges much more than it trends.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #2,146
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:44am Nov 5, 2014 5:44am
Quoting capstone
{quote} There are companies like this. What you are talking about is called a prop trader. There are firms that hire prop traders. Just do a Google search. I doubt they will hire someone who has only traded in demo however. You have this down. Like I have been telling you and moneyflow echoed, GO LIVE! Seriously, find a couple of things around your house, put them on eBay and sell them. Take that 25 or 50 pounds and deposit it into a live account. This is step 1. You need this before you can think about trading other peoples money. Demonstrate success...
Good morning my friend, up nice and early, how are you this bright and early morning???

A prop trader??? A pools manager??? Haven't heard those terms before are they American terms??? Whats the difference between the two???

I will search it on Google but sounds great!!!

Hows your trading going are you trading strong trenders and with the trend??? makes it so much easier and your winners will be bigger guaranteed. You've been here a while have you got my method off pat??? Have you tried it?? If not why not???

Very very simple just stick to the top trenders be aware that trends end some time and go from there, every time you see an ABCD in a strong trender take it!!! Trade demo for a while until the confidence comes, double it a couple of times then go back to your live account.

Is anyone else trying it??? If not why not??? Give it a go on demo, have a play with it until you get it right, its really not that complicated... Simplest system on FF I reckon, if price is going down sell the peaks(wave tops) if going up buy the dips(wave bottoms) CCI tells you whrere the wave tops and bottoms are. come on couldn't be simpler could it?? TTindy telss you which pairs to trade, CCI tells you when to get in, all you gotta do is decide when to get out...

Maybe its me confusing everyone with my none system trades??? Sorry if it is but I've sat here watching 1 minute charts so long when I see something setup that I've seen a thousand times before I just can't ignore it...

Would it help if I ran a live webinar in the mornings??? Maybe if I just sat there and talked through what I'm doing as I do it, more guys will give it a go. could even do some coaching after the LOs finished. Apparently theres webonar sites where its free for up to 200 people???

I would probably make a complete hash of it, all a bit amateurish, probably splutter my way through the whole thing but it would be fun..

Would have to do it soon whilst I'm still on demo as it might be too difficult with real money...

anyone interested in that??? If theres enough interest I'll try and sort something out just for a laugh...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,147
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:44am Nov 5, 2014 5:44am
Also, foobar, I forgot to mention, you can turn $1000 into a $1,000,000 in no time with just 2% per day. It does not take massive profits to do this. Look at Wal-Mart, they make pennies on every sale. McDonalds operates on a 5% profit.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #2,148
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:54am Nov 5, 2014 5:54am
Quoting capstone
{quote} That is correct foobar. It is the burning questions of everyone wrestling with GREED. Remember, that run was the exception, not the rule. The point is, we don't know...I am not here to gamble that every run will go 100 pips because I know the majority will not. I am here to make profit! When I have a stack of chips in front of me from taking the pots that the table is not really interested in, I get to play the big pots with other peoples money! If you see, on a bigger picture that the M1 is turning at a H1 or daily support or resistance,...

Right on the money my friend.

Every word is gold there for sure... I'm fully aware that Monday was a one off awesome day but 656 pips is a lot of orphans??? Whole bloody shed full!!!Oh dear I've got this image of a bunch of little kids in rags running around inside my shed.Bless em.

I tell you what I'm thinking Mr capstone, if my first trade is just after a trend reversal eg 100lwma changes colour and you get that first break and retest off of the 100lwma, leave it to run. Maybe leave the first 3 CCI signals to run. Close out when 100lwma changes colour again, in the meantime just scalp the orphans until trend ends. If you're entering after quite a run ie after 3 CCI signals then just grab an orphan???

Hmmm that sounds like a plan, might give that a go...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,149
  • Nov 5, 2014 6:01am Nov 5, 2014 6:01am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Good morning my friend, up nice and early, how are you this bright and early morning??? A prop trader??? A pools manager??? Haven't heard those terms before are they American terms??? Whats the difference between the two??? I will search it on Google but sounds great!!! Hows your trading going are you trading strong trenders and with the trend??? makes it so much easier and your winners will be bigger guaranteed. You've been here a while have you got my method off pat??? Have you tried it?? If not why not???
Yes, I have definitely incorporated the CCI into my charts and the 100LWMA. It runs very similar to the 70 SMA, which I have used forever. While I do like the TT indy, I also notice that by the time a pair gets into the top 4 on the higher TF measurement, the pair is well past the ideal entry. I have gone with a quicker MA to try to help there. I like 919Gileads currencyslopestrengthtrue indicator. Anyways, I do like your method for sure and would be interested in your videos.

I am curious how you have your pipsmeter in the bottom corner of the main screen. Mine is in small window at the bottom, as you see in my charts on my journal. I really like the indicator though. It is good to measure your moves in pips and not dollars. A mental thing.

A pool manager is charge of trading several peoples account through a copycat trade system that most brokers offer. You want a PAMM account for this. Check with your broker to see if it is offered. If so, you have your client open an account with the same broker, then they set up their account to move funds to your pool. Every time you take a trade with the pool, every person who has money in the pool is mirroring the trade. The broker will even figure out who gets what percent of the profit based on the size of their account and better yet, will take your profit out at the end of the month! It cannot be easier. You are the boss and accountable to the pool participants.

As a prop trader, you are in a pressure cooker, under someone else's thumb with certain goals you have to hit. It is a job, with a boss and all the pressure that goes with it.

Do not put the cart before the horse however. You need to take step 1 first and fund your own live account!
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #2,150
  • Nov 5, 2014 6:19am Nov 5, 2014 6:19am
Hi Clive,

thanks for sharing, i am interested in your thread and have been reading for some times..

questions if you don't mind,

usually how many pips before you move your stop loss to break even or BE+1 pip ?

before go BE, do you put your stop loss, in case of no chance to go BE, how do you decide to quit ?

thanks before, and sorry if the questions already covered before..

chrisyuto
live your life heartfully..
  • #2,151
  • Nov 5, 2014 6:24am Nov 5, 2014 6:24am
Heres my settings for the pipometer...

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I hear what you're saying about the TTindy but how long do you think GBPJPY was top of them both on Monday??? All day I can tell you so one way to use it is to look for a pair to stay in top 4 on the 5 min TTindys open up the top 4 and just keep an eye out for when they also appear on the 1 min TTindy , then go look for the ABCD if they are top in both indys but opposite colour go and checkout the reversal setup shown below. Also if you have the alarming MA on slope change then whenever you get an alert have a look at that chart for reversal setup. You could put a reversal trade on, get it to BE and go to work and check it when you get home as it might be a runner...I do this sometimes and check on my mobile app to manage the trade. Not the best way but its ok...

I sometimes have the top three 5 min charts open and have the 4th chart to monitor the 1 min top trender, just keep switching the pairs until I see a setup I like then go for it..

With this chart setup you will get the best 5 min trenders when they line up with the 1 min. Also a 5 min strong trender is the best candidate for a reversal setup as I have found the best reversals occur after a strong move one way or the other.

Heres the reversal setup use my MA indy as its got an alarm whenever slope changes...

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Theres more than one way to use the TTindy, I would scalp the top 1 min pairs and trade and hold the 5 min pairs looking for reversals off of the top 5 min pairs..

just some ideas...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,152
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:05am Nov 5, 2014 7:05am
Quoting chrisyuto
Hi Clive, thanks for sharing, i am interested in your thread and have been reading for some times.. questions if you don't mind, usually how many pips before you move your stop loss to break even or BE+1 pip ? before go BE, do you put your stop loss, in case of no chance to go BE, how do you decide to quit ? thanks before, and sorry if the questions already covered before.. chrisyuto
Hi chrisyuto

Good question but unfortunately theres not a clear cut answer as I will let some trades breathe a touch and others not at all. If I'm very confident I've got a really good level like a BRN or 25 level and its obviously moving strongly then I'll leave my stop just below level or sometimes on a volitile pair like gbpnzd or gbpjpy I'll put it 20 pips away then close out manually when my levels been breeched. Saves being pipped out by a minor spike...

The thing I will say about going to BE is never be afraid to go to BE because if it does take you out there will be another trade shortly, we are on 1 min charts the next setup is just a few pips away. better to protect your money than sit there through a drawdown hoping it will go your way. If an entry doesn't go with in minutes then look to either get to BE asap or close it out for a loss. But again I watch the tick box and if I see evidence the price is reacting to my level then I will let it ride a bit longer. If you do this you will soon get use to watching the tick box at key levels and you know its going to hold or not by the reaction it gets. Diificult to describe it really but best way is to watch it yourself on demo and you're see what I mean. Price literally jumps at good levels and sort of slides along bad levels like its looking for a gap to drop through.

just watch the tick box at key levels you're get the hang of it... word of warning it is a tick box so don't over react to its swings etc.. remember we are trading with strong trends its suppose to go your way...

I regularly goto BE at 1 pip very often less believe it or not. Again I watch the tick box and what you're see is a quick retest of your entry, a pullback on the tick chart then it will move away and create a new HH, after that pullback goto BE if its going to fly it will go from there trust me. A tick box is just like any other chart it moves in trends, it trends up and it trends down. By entering as it trends up you're see the last HL or LH so move to BE then...

To me its really important to protect your money more important than hanging on in case it goes, just get to BE and see what happens, you're be surprised. Look how tight some of my BE's are and half the time its been there for a minute or two before I post. Price moves away from key levels really quickly and if its a good level with plenty of support from fred and Gladys it won't come back,becos they don't want it too...

But what if it does?? Who wants to sit there sweating through a drawdown just let it go at BE sit back and wait for your next entry...

if I was to set a rule as such I would say if it hasn't shot off within say 5 mins then just GTFO soon as you can. If your entry plan doesn't work don't hang around too long. If you look at quality entries the price leaves your entry level and within 2 or 3 candles it goes and doesn't come back therefore if you enter and price keeps coming back to you just get to BE or close it out... Have a look at some of my best entries the price just leaves my entry within 2 to 3 mins...

I'm always developing my entry system but I find the ultimate method is to slide my pending order down the price as it approaches my level the closer it gets tp my level the closer I slide my order then as price hits level it will jump your way straight into trade and to BE sometimes in a single tick... Love it when that happens risk off the table in a tick!!! but theres a knack to it so practice practice practice....

Hope that helps sorry theres not a steadfast rule but if I said there was then when I trade different to my rules I'll be in trouble also it would n't be fair to trade one way myself and tell guys something else would it??? The truth is the market is alive and kicking so you have to be ready to respond as best you can....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,153
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:09am Nov 5, 2014 7:09am
Quick update on that reversal I spoke of earlier, you'd be about 60 pips up by now and no sign of the lwma turning red yet either, also the last drive up clearly took out last HH so trend still going strongly in my book but could always trail stop up under last HL for safety to lock in some profits just in case it reverses on you big time...

60 pips??? Hows that for an orphan, fat little monkey isn't he???

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Yep gonna look into holding these reversal setups thats for sure, I wonder where this one will end??? Will keep an eye on it later just for interest..
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,154
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:19am Nov 5, 2014 7:19am
Mr V. just pointed this one out to me, really must keep my eye on the ball in the mornings....

I did post earlier that I wanted to buy that HL after my perfect sell entry got knocked off for nowt but didn't wish I had now its gone 150 pips!!!

But apart from that look at those great 100lwma entries when you could of joined in the fun...Is that 100lwma sloping nicely or what???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 70 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,155
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:44am Nov 5, 2014 7:44am
Quoting chrisyuto
Hi Clive, thanks for sharing, i am interested in your thread and have been reading for some times.. questions if you don't mind, usually how many pips before you move your stop loss to break even or BE+1 pip ? before go BE, do you put your stop loss, in case of no chance to go BE, how do you decide to quit ? thanks before, and sorry if the questions already covered before.. chrisyuto

Heres a really good example of what I've just been talking about to chrisyuto on when to go to BE. I entered this trade break and retest of 100lwma and the 182.50 level, see how after my entry candle the next one just comes back and retest my entry, thats the tick chart pulling back then it goes again so I move to BE then it just keeps going no coming back as tick chart trending up nicely...


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Got myself another 10.4 pips there,

Oh and by the way this is that earlier reversal entry still piling up the page, although there was a small red on MA so maybe stopped out for about 45 pips, still nice and if you were managing it from a mobile you might of missed that close and be nearly 70 pips up by now. Yep gonna look into those reversals ....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,156
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:18am Nov 5, 2014 8:18am
I gotta go to work guys, much as I love my trading I gotta get some money together and working is the only way I know....

Just look at this GBPJPY reversal trade from this morning, unreal isn't it??? 150 pips and still going!!! From a little old 1 minute chart?? Who would of believed it???

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OK I've got to include these reversal trade entries as part of the system and they might not always be top of 1 min trenders when they happen but I think the rewards are speaking for themselves here, they've got to be worth the 10 to 20 pip risk haven't they??

So how we going to go about it??? But at the same time keep an eye out for our little orphans can't let them slip away with out a quick hug can we???

Well I've got a cunning plan that I will share with you all later... gotta go to work or my wife will kill me...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,157
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:09am Nov 5, 2014 9:09am
thanks for your explanation clive, you are so kind..

a lot to digest..

you go to work and i am about to rest, it's 10pm here, have a nice day..
live your life heartfully..
  • #2,158
  • Edited 7:40pm Nov 5, 2014 7:26pm | Edited 7:40pm
Just been reviewing my trades today and pleased with my orphan taking day made about 60 pips today so happy with that but couldn't help noticing this little run we missed on GBPAUD....

This GBPAUD trade that Mr V pointed out earlier just kept on going, in fact it had already gone 230 pips when I posted it earlier so you might think its done its range for the day and a touch more, but no it just kept going for another 145 pips to a grand total of 375 PIPS!!! Now look at how it just kept driving higher and higher and higher..We gotta learn to...

“Trade the trend until it ends”

As my old timer Tom Long use to say....

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Yep I missed a mere 375 pips on GBPAUD now how the hell did that happen, look at it for heavens sake, its what a trend trader dreams of, a trend so perfect a complete novice could trade it...

Mind you wouldn't be so bad if that was all I missed today, but unfortunately I missed this too...

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And this....

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And this...

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And this....

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And this.....

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And this.....

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And this.....

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Oh and this too...

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OK so its alright to miss one runner in a day but 9???? Gotta be something wrong with my monitoring system, surely?? Well we can't let this carry on can we?? Now I know what you're all thinking, "These days don't happen very often, they're a one off" Well I've got news for you , they're not!!! Happen all the time almost everyday there's a runner or two or three everyday.

So how am I gonna make sure we start to catch at least a few of these a week, thats the question and also we need to keep in mind we need a system of entry and exit that allows us to make money on the rangier days too. Now how we gonna do that???

Now most of those charts I've posted are 5 min charts and as you can see the 100lwma is looking decidedly slopey so they must of been on my 5 min TTindy for most of the day, now theres a clue...

Would of been nice to trade either way orphan grabbing or trend trading and holding on 100lwma slope changes...also notice on the GBPAUD chart, how nice the entries off of the 100lwma work, they seem to fly off that lwma don't they??

These big trends just keep happening nearly every day now we get a pair go hundreds of pips in a day... more often than not they are GBP pairs aren't they??? we've got to try and identify how we're gonna catch em??

I tell you something thou, if its hard to catch these trends on 1 minute charts that happen nearly everyday, how you gonna catch those daily trends??? how many times you gonna jump on and it will turn around a week later??? Makes you realise why trading is so hard if we can't even catch these 1 minute moves that happen all the time what hope is there for catching a trend on the other timeframes???

but never mind about those higher timeframes how about these 1 min runs how we gonna start to catch a few of these??

Well I think its about catching that first 2 to 3 CCI signals after the LWMA changes colour ie the reversal trade. Mr V's "First pullback is the best place to enter a new trend"

So how I see it is wait for a slope change on lwma after a strong move then catch and hold at least the first CCI if not the 2nd and 3rd but after that just orphan grab the rest of the trend and when LWMA turns back other way close out first 3 entries and see what you've caught. Of course if I see a strong move against trend will always hold the right to close out before the lwma changes as with some reversals they are so fast you'd give back all your spoils before the lwma turned over...

So there you have it, hold first couple of CCI signals after reversal and orphan grab the rest until the trend ends identified by lwma changing colour again...

Now how are we going to know we've had a slope change?? Well my ma alerts me every time colour changes so thats fine as long as we have the chart open. So how do we decide which charts to have open so we get the alert?? Well two theories on that either...

 

  1. Choose the pairs you most like to trade and expect a good reversal on, something like the GBP pairs and maybe a couple of AUD pairs something like GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD , GBPNZD, EURAUD, EURJPY, EURNZD and AUDUSD. Then if they're lwma slope changes you're get an alert. Have one more chart open for checking out the top 1 min TTindy trender so you can keep an eye on the biggest mover on 1 mins.
  2. The other way is to have the top seven 5 min TTindy pairs up waiting for a reversal because we're looking for a pair thats moved strongly one way, then when it alerts check it out for the reversal. And again keep one chart dedicated to the 1 min top trender for any immediate trade opportunities.

Remember something else too that a runner like todays GBPAUD will be top of the 5 min for most of the day so keep a closer eye on the top three 5 min top trenders as thats where you're find a potential runner... Also when the top pair on 5 min comes to top of 1 min then go for the next pullback bound to be a good one...

Just had a thought about how we could have the best of both worlds regardless of where we entered, how about this idea???

Now if you really want to get clever with this you could close out the whole trade as an orphan if trade struggles to pass point B but if it sails past B creating a new HH then we can assume trend is still strong and in place so let it ride becos in theory you've now got an extra resistance level at old B point to protect your stop...only close it out if point B fails to stop the pullback and support the trend.

Hey I really like that because if trend shows signs of weakening the worst case is we get the C to B run, but if trend continues we've got the whole position running
until the lwma turns, yep that sounds super cool, in fact that could be the rule fullstop. That deals with both scenarios with one rule bank if B stops trend or fails to hold trend up, yep best of both worlds...

Well there you go thats my latest theory on exits and holding for the trend...

Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,159
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:21pm Nov 5, 2014 10:21pm
"Well, I've got a cunning plan that I'll share with you all later...."

Whew!! I'm guessing this is it!
  • #2,160
  • Nov 6, 2014 2:50am Nov 6, 2014 2:50am
Break and retest of 100lwma so could be a nice entry if price flys up all day from here as per my previous post but it probably won't be we don't know until we try do we???
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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