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  • #161
  • Nov 4, 2014 2:57pm Nov 4, 2014 2:57pm
I'm holding a smaller than average position as well since the Margin requirement is higher on these exotic pairs, plus they can move a ton; I've learned the hard way with the Turkish Lira earlier this year that one must play small when it comes to these lol.
  • #162
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:15pm Nov 4, 2014 4:15pm
Quoting thadakman
I'm holding a smaller than average position as well since the Margin requirement is higher on these exotic pairs, plus they can move a ton; I've learned the hard way with the Turkish Lira earlier this year that one must play small when it comes to these lol.
Yep. Sucks on the margin hard ... . (And still waiting for another good entry to short EUR/TRY ... .)
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #163
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:45pm Nov 4, 2014 4:45pm
Ask price nearly at 44.00 ... . Got some greedies out there ... .

Even assuming that I wasn't short on the pair, the Wednesday swap on a long position is -13.08. Yowza!
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #164
  • Nov 5, 2014 1:49am Nov 5, 2014 1:49am
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...e-flexibility/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #165
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:06am Nov 5, 2014 7:06am
Ugh. A new high for the pair; a new low for the Ruble ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #166
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:52am Nov 5, 2014 8:52am
more easy to do money with Long that Short atm
  • #167
  • Nov 5, 2014 9:42am Nov 5, 2014 9:42am
This is getting ridiculous, we're getting very very close to a blow-off top here. Wouldn't mind if the Ruble just STAYED here for a while, as the swap is nice. I've slightly increased my position (Again), but this train needs to stop already LOL
  • #168
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:01pm Nov 5, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting thadakman
This is getting ridiculous, we're getting very very close to a blow-off top here. Wouldn't mind if the Ruble just STAYED here for a while, as the swap is nice. I've slightly increased my position (Again), but this train needs to stop already LOL
Yes, it's getting a bit ridiculous. I am at a loss to understand buyers at this level ... .

But like I said from the get-go, think possible long term ... . And now it's becoming long-term ... . This is Week 5 since I started initiating short legs, and the net position is getting heavier than I'd like ... .

Waiting for a Zig to form on the 4H and then I'll place (yet another) short GTC order to sell at that level ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #169
  • Nov 5, 2014 5:58pm Nov 5, 2014 5:58pm
As always, the RCB is making an effort to ease pressure on the Ruble ... . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...r-lenders.html However, the first go around with these repos didn't do much; the interest rate was too high, some said, but it has no been lowered, potentially making the repos more attractive. We'll see about that ... .

Additionally, the weaker Ruble has boosted certain exports ... , and -- partly as a result -- the Russian stock market has climbed for the eighth straight day. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...n-margins.html

But the bears are still waiting for this kind of stuff to translate into a correction lower ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #170
  • Nov 6, 2014 5:53am Nov 6, 2014 5:53am
45.75 ... USD/RUB never died lol

Who play with this pairs ?! strange ..
  • #171
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:21am Nov 6, 2014 9:21am
46.30... At this rate we'll be at 50 by the end of the week or early next; this is insane! Probably related to this: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=512231

New addition to short added at 46, plan to add a little at each point increase and take profits on each point decrease (Trade in and out basically as I collect yield; though, with this kind of movement, there are only opportunities to add to the position, never a chance to exit).
  • #172
  • Nov 6, 2014 2:54pm Nov 6, 2014 2:54pm
http://www.forex.com/post?SDN=4aa184...7-2ee29261d638
  • #173
  • Nov 6, 2014 3:02pm Nov 6, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting surfeur
http://www.forex.com/post?SDN=4aa184...7-2ee29261d638
That's some good analysis there, I'm predicting an extremely sharp drop like that day we had last week; 42 would be a great target, hard to see this thing going back under 40 until next year though, which we should see once sanctions are lifted (assuming WWIII doesn't start first).
  • #174
  • Nov 6, 2014 5:03pm Nov 6, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting thadakman
{quote} That's some good analysis there, I'm predicting an extremely sharp drop like that day we had last week; 42 would be a great target, hard to see this thing going back under 40 until next year though, which we should see once sanctions are lifted (assuming WWIII doesn't start first).
Fingers crossed ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #175
  • Nov 6, 2014 5:44pm Nov 6, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Fingers crossed ... .
Hoping for the "Soros scenario" ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #176
  • Nov 6, 2014 6:56pm Nov 6, 2014 6:56pm
An excellent point is made here. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...n-matters.html

In a nutshell: The RCB needs to quick nickel and dimeing its interventions and go for broke with an intervention that will cause a cascade of buyer stops to be triggered and burn speculating Ruble sellers hard, driving them out of the market. A couple of banks mentioned in the article have estimated that it would take a one time $10 billion intervention to do this ... .

I also kind of agree that unannounced interventions are better than announced ones, which may lead speculators to shy away from the currency going forward ... . And they need to do away with the trading band entirely ... . Gives speculators the exact signals they need as to when to buy and when to sell ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #177
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:04am Nov 7, 2014 1:04am
I just had a sell order filled at 48.20; insane is not a strong enough word!

Maybe one more push after good nfp numbers tomorrow before a slide? Regardless, I think we go back to 46 in quick fashion, call it a hunch.
  • #178
  • Edited 1:54am Nov 7, 2014 1:39am | Edited 1:54am
I like to see that some of you are still trying to catch a falling knife.
  • #179
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:30am Nov 7, 2014 2:30am
Quoting Jonh
I like to see that some of you are still trying to catch a falling knife.
I have my knife resistant trampoline with me, it's going to cause a fast and hard bounce.
  • #180
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:52am Nov 7, 2014 2:52am
Russian state owned bank VTB used the term "pose a risk for financial stability", that pretty much means the central bank should intervene big anytime now. Ruble down 33% this year, 10% this week, they'd be wise not to wait any longer.
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