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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #15,141
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:13am Nov 4, 2014 4:13am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Its simple ally, really. I do no rocket science here. The market does focus only at 1 or max. 2 fundamentals at a time. In this case, we know fundamentals are up (http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=511147) until BOJ says something else, discontinuation of QE or alike (or crisis lol). Fundamental analysis: Done. Sentiment: These are the traders, as you seen at 180.75 in 2014.09.19 (Funds still up), price turned there just to erase the whole move, fundamentals still been up. BOJ was still QE their currency. I just wanna...
For example, yesterdays low http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post7842331 **

1. It was a DP known in advance.
2. It got tested and became the yesterday daily low

Lets say we get tested there, if sentiment is strong, they gonna add and buy it up for at least yesterdays high; if sentiment is weak, they gonna bail out.
So if they bail out, who might be next? 174.60 (if sentiment weak)* because thats the recent daily low.

Add*
Link corrected**
  • #15,142
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:23am Nov 4, 2014 4:23am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} For example, yesterdays low http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post7842331 ** 1. It was a DP known in advance. 2. It got tested and became the yesterday daily low Lets say we get tested there, if sentiment is strong, they gonna add and buy it up for at least yesterdays high; if sentiment is weak, they gonna bail out. So if they bail out, who might be next? 174.60 (if sentiment weak)* because thats the recent daily low. Add* Link corrected**

to me DP means daily pivot but I get the feeling that is not what you mean??? blond question
  • #15,143
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:31am Nov 4, 2014 4:31am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} to me DP means daily pivot but I get the feeling that is not what you mean??? blond question
DP is a level which gets tested/broken/tested with continuation.
I want to give you an example with the recent DP (3) 179.80/60 (M15 Chart)
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  • #15,144
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:33am Nov 4, 2014 4:33am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} DP is a level which gets tested/broken/tested with continuation. I want to give you an example with the recent DP (3) 179.80/60 (M15 Chart) {image}
I was pretty bad with spotting the significant ones, thats why I do it with an algo but you dont need it. I think its just the geek in me
  • #15,145
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:55am Nov 4, 2014 4:55am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} DP is a level which gets tested/broken/tested with continuation. I want to give you an example with the recent DP (3) 179.80/60 (M15 Chart) {image}
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post7839286

Coincidence?

"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored." - Aldous Huxley
  • #15,146
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:58am Nov 4, 2014 4:58am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} DP is a level which gets tested/broken/tested with continuation. I want to give you an example with the recent DP (3) 179.80/60 (M15 Chart) {image}
THANK YOU for showing that picture. I was trying to figure out how to determine the DPs. I wasn't sure what time frame to use on the charts, and what movements defined a decision point.

That post is incredibly helpful. Thank you very much!
  • #15,147
  • Nov 4, 2014 4:58am Nov 4, 2014 4:58am
Quoting IveGotQuads
Could this be the start of a minor pull back .... granted the engulfing bearish candle was probably the London traders closing their buy positions or banking some profits . We see a retest @ 182.11 twice and 181.79 all making lower highs. Food for thought, will be watching those points and let the market decide. {image}
Hi IveGotQuads, I had a similair thought this morning: lower highs and kind of bearish candles on 5 minute chart - shorted a bit too early before the shakeout but could recover until now. But I see a gap on the 5 minute chart at 181.68! Could be that this will be filled before any further down move!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,148
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:01am Nov 4, 2014 5:01am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} I was pretty bad with spotting the significant ones, thats why I do it with an algo but you dont need it. I think its just the geek in me
I can understand why you did an Algo Ray, but it's reassuring, to me at least, that mine aren't a mile away from yours LOL. I'm also a bit of a luddite when it comes to technology, and if I can see them anyone can.

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  • #15,149
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:03am Nov 4, 2014 5:03am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Hey, I've had my fair share of failures for sure. I wouldn't say I'm trading much better. Perhaps marginally better is the proper term. When shorting in a case like this, I use a method for it. I did try a short a little while back, but it blew right through it. Fortunately I had a stop in place pretty tightly, so I only lost like 0.4% on it. I basically set up 2 zones. One is zone starts at 25 pips above the high of the asian session and ends at 50 pips above. The other zone does the opposite. It starts 25 pips below the low of the session,...
Thanks for sharing your insights! I will definitely take a look and come back at you for questions - be prepared haha - if you lend them a finger, they take the whole arm
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,150
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:07am Nov 4, 2014 5:07am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} I can understand why you did an Algo Ray, but it's reassuring, to me at least, that mine aren't a mile away from yours LOL. I'm also a bit of a luddite when it comes to technology, and if I can see them anyone can. {image}
Perfect, then go for it! DPs arent the hardest part but trading itself, facing yourself.
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  • #15,151
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:11am Nov 4, 2014 5:11am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} THANK YOU for showing that picture. I was trying to figure out how to determine the DPs. I wasn't sure what time frame to use on the charts, and what movements defined a decision point. That post is incredibly helpful. Thank you very much!
Np
  • #15,152
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:15am Nov 4, 2014 5:15am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} DP is a level which gets tested/broken/tested with continuation. I want to give you an example with the recent DP (3) 179.80/60 (M15 Chart) {image}
Thanks FXRay, this helps a lot in understanding! The clutter in my mind is the hardest to bit though ... one has to focus on the simple facts and calm the noise. My hardest challenge ever.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,153
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:17am Nov 4, 2014 5:17am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Thanks for sharing your insights! I will definitely take a look and come back at you for questions - be prepared haha - if you lend them a finger, they take the whole arm
Bring them on! I've picked other trader's brains, and they've helped me out. I'd be a total jerk if I wasn't answering questions myself. For longer-term trades though, follow FX-Ray. I managed to snag about 200 pips by following the decision points. I'm better at spotting smaller daily movements for some quick 1-3hr trades. But FX-Ray's DPs have been very solid points from what I've seen.
  • #15,154
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:18am Nov 4, 2014 5:18am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Thanks FXRay, this helps a lot in understanding! The clutter in my mind is the hardest to bit though ... one has to focus on the simple facts and calm the noise. My hardest challenge ever.
Its hard to ignore PA, seduction is there, many times in the second, you see price dancing around and becoming paralyzed and voila you´re another victim. I guess most of you know what I am talking about
  • #15,155
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:26am Nov 4, 2014 5:26am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Its hard to ignore PA, seduction is there, many times in the second, you see price dancing around and becoming paralyzed and voila you´re another victim. I guess most of you know what I am talking about
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ng#post7843924

There are some things HFT-Algos cant, considering Fundamentals, extracting sentiment and following intermediate - and longterm trends. They live in a very tight and short price and time horizont. Thats why you stand almost no chance scalping.*

Corrected*
  • #15,156
  • Nov 4, 2014 6:14am Nov 4, 2014 6:14am
Silence spread´s out

Im off for lunch, laters
  • #15,157
  • Nov 4, 2014 6:44am Nov 4, 2014 6:44am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} He had a relative that did forex trading for a fairly big bank, and shared with him a couple of tips on how banks fake-out traders, and clear out positions.
Do you have a link? or what were the methods they employed?
Forex rules
  • #15,158
  • Nov 4, 2014 6:53am Nov 4, 2014 6:53am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} DP is a level which gets tested/broken/tested with continuation. I want to give you an example with the recent DP (3) 179.80/60 (M15 Chart) {image}
took a nap ... will study this thanks

so DP doesn't stand for anything just a level
  • #15,159
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:21am Nov 4, 2014 7:21am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} took a nap ... will study this thanks so DP doesn't stand for anything just a level
Yeah.. if it goes through, it probably go to the next. Thats it.
  • #15,160
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:27am Nov 4, 2014 7:27am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Yeah.. if it goes through, it probably go to the next. Thats it.
that is what I thought and since it got thru the 179.80 I am looking for it to go to 183.20

rather buy than sell in here because of that and the road up has less resistance than down
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