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  • #81
  • Nov 1, 2014 6:10am Nov 1, 2014 6:10am
congrats with ur progress live account , i compared my demo and live trading in a week with the same capital and the result was live 10 % return but demo 100 % return , I have to find how to press my fear , emotion and change to strengths , technically my method was not bad but in live trading far away from my target.
what ever it takes
  • #82
  • Nov 1, 2014 4:09pm Nov 1, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting vitzaza
congrats with ur progress live account , i compared my demo and live trading in a week with the same capital and the result was live 10 % return but demo 100 % return , I have to find how to press my fear , emotion and change to strengths , technically my method was not bad but in live trading far away from my target.

Hi vitzaza!
Thank you for your kind words.

I started trading many many years ago. I didn't like demo accounts then and i still don't like demo accounts now. I invented hundreds of systems and my forward testing in all of them was done in real accounts. Demo accounts do not reflect the 'truth' of the markets. Spreads are not the same, slippage is not the same, prices are not the same and most important you don't trade the same way. To me they are a waste of time.

Wish you all the luck! No one arrives to the market and becomes a fantastic trader overnight. It takes time, passion, and perseverance.
  • #83
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:07am Nov 3, 2014 8:07am
Trading done for the day. Goal is getting closer and closer

Initial Balance: 63.23€
Equity: 99.36€
Profit: 57.14%
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  • #84
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:25am Nov 4, 2014 5:25am
Well try number 3 ends in a fail.
Damn!!! The 60% profit zone is really dangerous already killed my 2 systems.
What went wrong: over trade i guess. The GU trade is unrecoverable. The euro trade could end up in BE maybe...
Another note for the DD: 50% of the account is a little bit too much maybe.

Back to drawing phase...
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  • #85
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:02am Nov 4, 2014 7:02am
Quoting sconcha
Well try number 3 ends in a fail. Damn!!! The 60% profit zone is really dangerous already killed my 2 systems. What went wrong: over trade i guess. The GU trade is unrecoverable. The euro trade could end up in BE maybe... Another note for the DD: 50% of the account is a little bit too much maybe. Back to drawing phase... {image}
Just a quick suggestion......when you look at designing a system, make sure you focus on the absolute most important aspect which is W/L ratio. forget about winning % as it is the LEAST important number in system development. You can win only 30-40% of the time and still make a great return if you have a W/L ratio of 3:1 or better....

Just my .02


many pips
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #86
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:19am Nov 4, 2014 7:19am
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} Just a quick suggestion......when you look at designing a system, make sure you focus on the absolute most important aspect which is W/L ratio. forget about winning % as it is the LEAST important number in system development. You can win only 30-40% of the time and still make a great return if you have a W/L ratio of 3:1 or better.... Just my .02 many pips

Thank you swingtrade65

I did took W/L ratio into the equation. This time i made it 1:1. Maybe increase it a little bit next time
  • #87
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:42am Nov 4, 2014 7:42am
Quoting sconcha
{quote} Thank you swingtrade65 I did took W/L ratio into the equation. This time i made it 1:1. Maybe increase it a little bit next time
I would look for 2.5: 1 at a minimum.

Lets do the math:
Start with $100
Lose the next 60 trades @ $1 each leaves you with $40
Win next 40 @ 2.5 = $100 + the $40 you had remaining = $140....or 40% return.

Yes, I know that the trades will never happen in that sequence, however, if at the end of the 100 trade sequence you had won 40 and lost 60 at that W/L ratio...you still have a 40% return


Many Pips
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #88
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:35am Nov 4, 2014 8:35am
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} I would look for 2.5: 1 at a minimum. Lets do the math: Start with $100 Lose the next 60 trades @ $1 each leaves you with $40 Win next 40 @ 2.5 = $100 + the $40 you had remaining = $140....or 40% return. Yes, I know that the trades will never happen in that sequence, however, if at the end of the 100 trade sequence you had won 40 and lost 60 at that W/L ratio...you still have a 40% return Many Pips
Disregarding today's trades:

Since 24th October: 52 trades
Positive trades: 40
Negative trades: 12
Average Winner: 1.81€
Average Loser: -3.02€

W/L ratio of: 0.59 !!
Success rate of: 76.9%

Hmmmmm way below 1.0 and my TP is equal to my SL in every trade not taking consideration of the spreads.
  • #89
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:40am Nov 4, 2014 8:40am
Quoting sconcha
{quote} Disregarding today's trades: Since 24th October: 52 trades Positive trades: 40 Negative trades: 12 Average Winner: 1.81€ Average Loser: -3.02€ W/L ratio of: 0.59 !! Success rate of: 76.9% Hmmmmm way below 1.0 and my TP is equal to my SL in every trade not taking consideration of the spreads.

There is your answer...so even with a high winning %....still a loser.....makes you wonder why there are thousands of threads on here at FF with people working night and day to get a high winning percentage.....

Many Pips
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #90
  • Nov 4, 2014 9:59am Nov 4, 2014 9:59am
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} There is your answer...so even with a high winning %....still a loser.....makes you wonder why there are thousands of threads on here at FF with people working night and day to get a high winning percentage..... Many Pips
Indeed its a good conclusion.
However some people say that we should not look only to W/L ratio alone.

The ratio of at least 2:1 or 3:1 per trade is over-simplistic because it does not take into account the practical realities of the forex market (or any other markets), the individual's trading style and the individual's average profitability per trade (APPT) factor, which is also referred to as statistical expectancy. (see here)

Average profitability per trade (APPT) basically refers to the average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade.Your trading performance depends largely on your APPT.

Average Profitability Per Trade = (Probability of Win x Average Win) - (Probability of Loss x Average Loss)

So regarding my trades:

APPT = (0.77 x 1.81 ) - (0.23 x 3.02) = 0.70€

Every trade i make has a expected 0,70€ profit !

Maybe i am not too far away.. what do you think ?
  • #91
  • Nov 4, 2014 10:21am Nov 4, 2014 10:21am
Quoting sconcha
{quote} Disregarding today's trades: Since 24th October: 52 trades Positive trades: 40 Negative trades: 12 Average Winner: 1.81€ Average Loser: -3.02€ W/L ratio of: 0.59 !! Success rate of: 76.9% Hmmmmm way below 1.0 and my TP is equal to my SL in every trade not taking consideration of the spreads.
I agree completely with statistical expectancy...that is what determines the overall outcome. However, there are a couple of variables here that cannot be overlooked. Is a win rate of 70% plus sustainable over a long period of time? Another question I would ask is if your SL and TP are the same, then why the disparity in W/L ratio. Are you bailing early on winners because of fear of giving profits back, yet giving the losers the full range of the SL?

I have found over time that 45-55% winners is much more realistic and there are proven methods all over the internet to give you such win rates. With that being said, the ability to just sit on your hands and let the winners mature into much bigger winners is the hard part...in fact the hardest part. My win% hovers around 49-52%...however my W/L ratio NEVER goes below 2.25:1

I think you are getting close...but here is one more thing to think about. When you trade very frequently, you have many many more decisions to make. The more decisions, the more chances to make mistakes that will cost you profitibility over the course of several hundred trades. Take a higher timeframe, give yourself a chance and slow down so you can make the best decision possible.

Just to give you a comparison....since Oct 24th you say you have made 52 trades..... I have closed less than 1/2 that many...yet my results are very different.....

Just my .02

Many pips!
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #92
  • Nov 4, 2014 11:07am Nov 4, 2014 11:07am
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} I agree completely with statistical expectancy...that is what determines the overall outcome. However, there are a couple of variables here that cannot be overlooked. Is a win rate of 70% plus sustainable over a long period of time? Another question I would ask is if your SL and TP are the same, then why the disparity in W/L ratio. Are you bailing early on winners because of fear of giving profits back, yet giving the losers the full range of the SL? I have found over time that 45-55% winners is much more realistic and there are proven methods...

You raise difficult questions my friend!

I don't know if 70% plus win rate is sustainable for a long period of time...
SL and TP were the same, about 10 pips each, but i was not considering the spread. TP = SL - spread. Will fix that on a new attempt
My worst ability is to let the trade run. I really can't! It's kind against my nature/profile? I like fast profits. I prefer 100 trades at 1 pip profit than 10 trades, 10 pips profit hence the scalping. But it's too much stressful!

Thank you for your time i appreciate it.
  • #93
  • Nov 4, 2014 12:04pm Nov 4, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting sconcha
{quote} You raise difficult questions my friend! I don't know if 70% plus win rate is sustainable for a long period of time... SL and TP were the same, about 10 pips each, but i was not considering the spread. TP = SL - spread. Will fix that on a new attempt My worst ability is to let the trade run. I really can't! It's kind against my nature/profile? I like fast profits. I prefer 100 trades at 1 pip profit than 10 trades, 10 pips profit hence the scalping. But it's too much stressful! Thank you for your time i appreciate it.
Thats rather unfortunate....because it would take you a lot of trades to equal this one Maybe take a trade...a coin flip on the hourly chart...set a TP = 25 and a SL = 10....then just walk away and come back in 1 hour ? Who knows what might happen? It is the same as gambling with scalping in my opinion.

Please look at the chart below....is there any reason on this chart to close out this position?? notice the black arrow on the left....it points to the fact that I have been holding this position since Oct 30th (not to mention that it is in the profit by almost 700 pips....I only look a couple time per day...move my stop and go about my life)....it really easier than you think!!

Best of Luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #94
  • Nov 4, 2014 5:47pm Nov 4, 2014 5:47pm
Sconcha, I wish you all the success that can be had on those lower time frames.

It definitely is possible to double your account in a week or a few days even. There are traders that do it. I've done it. However, I do not trade that way anymore, since what inevitably happened to me every time, is I get burned out. It takes more focus, more mental/emotional stamina, than what I have, and/or am willing to give to my trading efforts.

All it takes is a a few 20 pips ranging days to make you feel like your head is going to explode, fighting to get 10 pips here and there

Now, I tend to look for 100+ pip moves on H1/H4 time frame. Much easier, and I like the greater reward that comes with less effort, and less risk.

I also like focusing on R:R to maximize profits, I look for trades between 1:5 and 1:10 R:R and try to avoid them if the R:R doesn't measure up. Easy to double your account in a week or 2 and a lot less stress.
  • #95
  • Nov 5, 2014 3:15am Nov 5, 2014 3:15am
Quoting swingtrade65
{quote} Thats rather unfortunate....because it would take you a lot of trades to equal this one Maybe take a trade...a coin flip on the hourly chart...set a TP = 25 and a SL = 10....then just walk away and come back in 1 hour ? Who knows what might happen? It is the same as gambling with scalping in my opinion. Please look at the chart below....is there any reason on this chart to close out this position?? notice the black arrow on the left....it points to the fact that I have been holding this position since Oct 30th (not to mention that it...

Wow great trade swingtrade65 !!
gbpjpy scares me. Many times burned on that one. ouchhh! There is no reason for you to close that trade... maybe gbpjpy will have to retrace to a certain extent and you will lose some of the gains? i would close it now for sure
I have to try increasing that R:R ratio, it's a fact

Thank you!
  • #96
  • Nov 5, 2014 3:20am Nov 5, 2014 3:20am
Quoting benaiah
Sconcha, I wish you all the success that can be had on those lower time frames. It definitely is possible to double your account in a week or a few days even. There are traders that do it. I've done it. However, I do not trade that way anymore, since what inevitably happened to me every time, is I get burned out. It takes more focus, more mental/emotional stamina, than what I have, and/or am willing to give to my trading efforts. All it takes is a a few 20 pips ranging days to make you feel like your head is going to explode, fighting to get 10...

Hi benaiah,

you are absolutely right. I spend most of my time watching 5 minute charts. Ranging days kills my mental sanity. I have to rethink my strategy.

Thank you!
  • #97
  • Nov 5, 2014 10:47am Nov 5, 2014 10:47am
Quoting sconcha
{quote} Wow great trade swingtrade65 !! gbpjpy scares me. Many times burned on that one. ouchhh! There is no reason for you to close that trade... maybe gbpjpy will have to retrace to a certain extent and you will lose some of the gains? i would close it now for sure I have to try increasing that R:R ratio, it's a fact Thank you!
Thank you! maybe we should work out a trading plan for you to work on some higher timeframes just a thought


Many pips!
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #98
  • Nov 6, 2014 4:19pm Nov 6, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting sconcha
{quote} Hi benaiah, you are absolutely right. I spend most of my time watching 5 minute charts. Ranging days kills my mental sanity. I have to rethink my strategy. Thank you!
Hi Sconcha, as I mentioned I do trade H1 and H4. But I always come back to M5, M15 it seems. Maybe in my blood

Grabbed 100 pips on GBPJPY yesterday and today. Of course, I'm weary of those burn-out days. But I was thinking of something that could help prevent those burn-out days. Basically, only trade certain set-ups. If the setups aren't there, just watch the market and wait.

For me, I'm currently trading GJ and UJ. Plenty of movement, I think with these pairs to grab 20-50 pips a day easily.

Wait for a signal on the higher time frames, i.e. H1 and H4 and then look for opportunities in the direction of the signal.

For example, one of my favorites is engulfing bars. On H1 and H4, they tend to retrace, typically 25-50 percent, unless a break out of heavy consolidation, then probably retrace not likely right away. Anyway, you could wait for a retrace on M5/M15 and jump in with the trend.

Just a thought. But if the market lacks direction, wait for a signal on H1 and H4, then look for your trades on lower time frames as per the signal.

Hope this helps...
  • #99
  • Dec 17, 2014 9:56am Dec 17, 2014 9:56am
And i am back with another idea!!

Lets see if i can take this to 100% !!

Scalping does not take me anywhere, i know, but i had to try this idea. So... here it goes ...

All trades close after 1 pip or less (depending on market conditions) for profit.

50 pips a day would make my day
  • #100
  • Dec 22, 2014 3:31am Dec 22, 2014 3:31am
just be carfull to stuck in any trade at this time of year and good luck all
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
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