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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #15,081
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:03pm Nov 2, 2014 6:03pm
Quoting smash1820
Wow! Hey, Mpt. What's up?! I just noticed this Geppy GBP/JPY pair! Holy sh*!TF# New highs last week on just about every time frame except Monthly!!! In 20 hours, it has run nearly 600 pips... MY GOD.... how did I miss this move.!??!gldgh ikETJUHET AND THIS IS STILL MY FAVORITE PAIR, WHICH MAKES IT SUCK EVEN MORE lol... i been too busy focusing on aud/nzd, thats why, FML your margin can only go so far... Hope you banked it, Mpt!
Hi buddy. Banked more of it now and waiting to see whether it's REALLY bullish, or still in the mother of all corrections. Hope all is well.
  • #15,082
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:05pm Nov 2, 2014 6:05pm
Quoting Mpt
Hi buddy. Banked more of it now and waiting to see whether it's REALLY bullish, or still in the mother of all corrections. Hope all is well.
glad to hear it! According to your own words, Geppy is "REALLY bullish", see my post above, and probably even go long now, but remember to mortgage the house and kids first

A short-term retracement will come first, though. So once you get that mortgage ready, THEN and only THEN can you go long...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #15,083
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:13pm Nov 2, 2014 6:13pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} glad to hear it! According to your own words, Geppy is "REALLY bullish", see my post above, and probably even go long now, but remember to mortgage the house and kids first A short-term retracement will come first, though. So once you get that mortgage ready, THEN and only THEN can you go long...
Maybe. Otherwise it makes a new low, before BOTH UJ and GU take it up together - not like this tag team wrestling crap.
  • #15,084
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:19pm Nov 2, 2014 6:19pm
Quoting Mpt
Maybe. Otherwise it makes a new low, before BOTH UJ and GU take it up together - not like this tag team wrestling crap.
In my opinion, the BEST-case scenario for a retracement, would be to around 178.40.

And even that is NOT likely, because the trend is so strong.

Then, it heads higher still...

----------------------------------
PS: You know I do not use fibs/EW. Simple PA, that's all you need

PS (2): JPY weakness is really the theme here. NOT GBP strength, it is JPY weakness... That is why I love this pair SO damn much!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #15,085
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:27pm Nov 2, 2014 6:27pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} In my opinion, the BEST-case scenario for a retracement, would be to around 178.40. And even that is NOT likely, because the trend is so strong. Then, it heads higher still... ---------------------------------- PS: You know I do not use fibs/EW. Simple PA, that's all you need PS (2): JPY weakness is really the theme here. NOT GBP strength, it is JPY weakness.
I don't trust them either. For the last few weeks, they were all saying DOWN. Now they're all saying UP. That's part of the reason for my scepticism. The next hour or ten will tell. We'll see whether the "gap" at 179.8 holds first.
  • #15,086
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:35pm Nov 2, 2014 6:35pm
Quoting Mpt
I don't trust them either. For the last few weeks, they were all saying DOWN. Now they're all saying UP. That's part of the reason for my scepticism. The next hour or ten will tell. We'll see whether the "gap" at 179.8 holds first.
You'd be better off not listening to the professionals at all, and making judgements for yourself.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #15,087
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:40pm Nov 2, 2014 6:40pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} You'd be better off not listening to the professionals at all, and making judgements for yourself.

Correct
  • #15,088
  • Nov 2, 2014 8:40pm Nov 2, 2014 8:40pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} IŽd like to give a lesson to those who are newbies and serious about trading: Trade ONLY at DPs, ignore everything else, any 'PA', 'TA', 'Momentum', '[Put anything here you want]', try to watch the madness in front of your eyes and accept the fact you dont know anything and cant predict anything and be in peace with it. If you trade only at DP and youŽll take losses, its fine. If you are able to make profits, its fine too but the main goal is to accept everything mentioned above. Those who do it, IŽd like a feedback after Friday Close, per...
Hi FX-Ray,

I'm a newbie here, I've been watching this thread for quite sometimes and would like to express my sincere appreciation to you for sharing all your thought, especially on the DP itself. I found the DP is very useful when making a decision before entering a trade. You've help me to turn my almost margin call account to a profitable one, and i can't be more thankful to you and all the seniors who post here on this

One question though, do you mean we should enter the trade at DP itself? or when DP break? example of (3) 179.80/60 , if it break to 180 or more, we should enter buy, and sell if it break 179.5 or so?

thanks in advanced!
  • #15,089
  • Nov 2, 2014 10:10pm Nov 2, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Okay guys, Im offline for now, not sure If I can post next week because I have to deal with other issues. I wish everyone a successful week and peace of mind, laters
Cheers, dude.
  • #15,090
  • Nov 3, 2014 12:45am Nov 3, 2014 12:45am
Quoting Mpt
Amid all the exuberance, be mindful that we don't see an almost pip for pip carbon copy of the previous rise to 180.5 - and the fall that followed it (or at least part of the fall). Right now, the supports are all in exactly the same places. 179.8 and 177.5 are the same. As is 176.6. Not that it may go that way - but they DO all sit in the same spots.
Exactly. I don't think the same moves are going to happen. That previous rush was to protect the value of the pound while they were dealing with the possibility of a scottish separation. Just a pure bank/sentiment move to push the value of the pound up, and protect it in case scotland separated. Since if scotland did separate, the pound would've taken about a 10% hit in value. When scotland voted to remain, then the value started to retrace to its fundamental value.

Now the fundamental range (if you could call it that) has shifted, since Japan is actually increasing their inflation rate. So all in all, the kind of "zone" it's in has shifted up. To top it all off, if Carney does follow through and increase the interest rate in the spring time, the beast is likely to grow yet another leg then, and we'd be likely to see even larger daily moves.

At any rate, it will retrace some. When exactly? Nobody really knows. It might idle for a few days, move up a bit, then drop. Or slowly decline, etc. A retrace is on the horizon, but it's still too early to tell when it will happen, and still a little sketchy to speculate how much of a retrace we will see.
  • #15,091
  • Nov 3, 2014 1:13am Nov 3, 2014 1:13am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Exactly. I don't think the same moves are going to happen. That previous rush was to protect the value of the pound while they were dealing with the possibility of a scottish separation. Just a pure bank/sentiment move to push the value of the pound up, and protect it in case scotland separated. Since if scotland did separate, the pound would've taken about a 10% hit in value. When scotland voted to remain, then the value started to retrace to its fundamental value. Now the fundamental range (if you could call it that) has shifted, since...

Maybe. My argument is essentially a rehash of a post from early October, where I suggested a fall down to 168, then a bounce back to 180.6 before another fall. 30 days later we're back here again.

" Yes, but as also commented last week, a fall out of the 61.8 at about 173.5 would fall into 170.5/171.x. At that point, I would expect a consolidation that drops back to 168/166.2, then any consequent bounce would fail at 180.6, before a deeper drop. I think that 173x is vitally significant for its future prospects."

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post7775206
  • #15,092
  • Nov 3, 2014 4:41am Nov 3, 2014 4:41am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} IŽd like to give a lesson to those who are newbies and serious about trading: Trade ONLY at DPs, ignore everything else, any 'PA', 'TA', 'Momentum', '[Put anything here you want]', try to watch the madness in front of your eyes and accept the fact you don't know anything and can't predict anything and be in peace with it. If you trade only at DP and youŽll take losses, its fine. If you are able to make profits, its fine too but the main goal is to accept everything mentioned above.
I am going to drill that point into my head. I took many losses thinking I knew what was happening, and could predict how it was going to move. Thanks for the sound advice FX-Ray. I'll be messaging you at the end of the week with my results.

Already with following your advice from late last week, I've been profitable. 150 pips up, and only 17 pips down. Bailed on some trades a little early after the japanese news break due to a lack of confidence, but am holding my trades now until the next DP, and going to re-asses my positions when that time comes.

Thanks again for your help, and for the help from other traders with solid input like Mpt. Also IveGotQuads has been a big help when I was really losing my cool during a big losing streak a little while back. If it wasn't for this forum, I'd likely be out of forex by now, and out of my mind as well. Thanks for all the help!
  • #15,093
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:52am Nov 3, 2014 5:52am
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision points calendar week 45 GBP/JPY alias 'The Dragon': (0) 189.60/00 (Six-Sigma) (1) 185.00/80 (2) 183.20/00 (3) 179.80/60 (4) 176.20/00 (5) 173.20/00 (6) 168.20/00 (7) 166.80/00 (Six-Sigma) Still no big changes, last week closed at DP (3); IŽd like to mention few scenarios: Scenario 1: DP (3) support, continuation to DP (2) Scenario 2: DP (3) resistance, continuation to DP (4) Scenario 3: DP (3) resistance; test of 178.80 or 177.90 or 177.00 then break of DP (3); test of DP (3) from above then continuation to DP (2) Good Luck everyone! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdSMZTSRQNc...
Scenario (1) occured:

Anyone catched that long?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,094
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:27am Nov 3, 2014 6:27am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Scenario (1) occured: Anyone catched that long? {image}
No, train has left. Always some pips too early or too late ... - 40 on an attempt to short around the 61.8 Fib was not a good idea ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,095
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:35am Nov 3, 2014 6:35am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} No, train has left. Always some pips too early or too late ... - 40 on an attempt to short around the 61.8 Fib was not a good idea ...
Yeah catching a falling knife should be avoided as should standing in front of a runaway train LOL.
  • #15,096
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:41am Nov 3, 2014 6:41am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Yeah catching a falling knife should be avoided as should standing in front of a runaway train LOL.
Level looked too good to be true.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,097
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:42am Nov 3, 2014 6:42am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Level looked too good to be true.
if it looks too good to be true, it probably is
  • #15,098
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:50am Nov 3, 2014 6:50am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} if it looks too good to be true, it probably is
In this forum many good people write. Some care about technical, some care about news etc. I guess you manage it in a good balance. You are strong in technical analysis and also see global situation. From the beginning of this move since 2 years, you show people good ways, thank you.
By the way, there is no major resistance in front of us. Maybe there will be a corrrection after 184 but in big picture every correction is a chance, we will see 220s in 1-2 years.
There is a quarantee way to make money: Follow FX-Ray
  • #15,099
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:50am Nov 3, 2014 6:50am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Scenario (1) occured: Anyone catched that long? {image}
I was at work, so I missed that one. Opened a position at 180.600 when I got home. And another at 180.770 when I saw it punch through a level. Just added another position at 181.400 a little over an hour ago.

Looks like the train's still going northbound. I think I'm going to sleep well tonight.
  • #15,100
  • Edited 6:58am Nov 3, 2014 6:54am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting delpiero
{quote} In this forum many good people write. Some care about technical, some care about news etc. I guess you manage it in a good balance. You are strong in technical analysis and also see global situation. From the beginning of this move since 2 years, you show people good ways, thank you. By the way, there is no major resistance in front of us. Maybe there will be a corrrection after 184 but in big picture every correction is a chance, we will see 220s in 1-2 years. There is a quarantee way to make money: Follow FX-Ray
Too much credit delpiero, thank you anyway. My intention is not traders following me rather to show them how to trade themself but its extremely difficult to implement, unfortunately.

Add: I guess next resistance should be around DP(2) 183.20/00
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