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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,961
  • Edited 8:36am Oct 31, 2014 8:12am | Edited 8:36am
Hi Seneca Pilot and friends!

After several days (trying to) read as much as possible in this thread, don't know why I found confortable to tryout your method, and guess what? Till now, better than a 1:10 R/R and going. I had a bearish sentiment for EURUSD and looking for a good point to put a sell order. I had drawn a support line at 1.26318 that was broken, than became resistant (just keeping things clear, the level of resistance I sold was the minimum of the last week). I just put my sell limit at 1.26300 and bang! Right on the TOP.

Just for all guys see the power of this strategy - if I could say this way. It's a very hard approach to take, in my opinion, but you don't need to be right many times and still earn lots of pips I think.

If anyone interested, I coded a little EA to draw min/max of yesterday, min/max of last week and also opening level of day and week, all changing between blue/red when or not broken. Helps a little to identify things when you watch lots of pairs.

See for yourself:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.PNG Size: 87 KB


I own you this, thanks for this thread, I can say it has open my mind. Thank you and keep the good (charity) work. Have a nice weekend!
  • #3,962
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:03pm Oct 31, 2014 11:03pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} This is true of all trading. Nothing will work every day without some losses. It is the long term consistent application of a method that tells the story. There are some constants that never change though. There are very important prices printed every day that ALWAYS matter. This doesn't guarantee winning trades every day but it does insure a consistent framework from which to work. Reread carefully. Look closely for the clues I dropped. There were some things I simply mentioned in passing that may have been more important than the mechanics...

Well, I wasn't talking about what works everyday but rather what can happen over a period of months. Some of the levels you mentioned in your strategy can yield negative results for a while until they pick up again. I am guessing that you use additional filters (analysis of current fundamental situation or other technical confluences) to avoid certain trades when market conditions are less favorable. I doubt that you would fade one of your levels against a freight train like the one that came out of JPY last night. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I read the thread and think back to the backtest on page 20: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post6410163

It's probably part of my personality to trade with an approach closer to that of BillyRay. The benefit with your approach is that you can really backtest the "raw" signals. However, beginners should not think that taking those levels blindly without proper context is the way to go. Price action, fundies, etc. are still needed, which are not really discussed in this thread. This is not really meant as a critique, but rather as a warning to others who wish to base their strategy on your's, as I do not believe that one can ever copy another's strategy to 100%--it always has to first become your own.
  • #3,963
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:05pm Oct 31, 2014 11:05pm
Quoting gustcoelho
Hi Seneca Pilot and friends! After several days (trying to) read as much as possible in this thread, don't know why I found confortable to tryout your method, and guess what? Till now, better than a 1:10 R/R and going. I had a bearish sentiment for EURUSD and looking for a good point to put a sell order. I had drawn a support line at 1.26318 that was broken, than became resistant (just keeping things clear, the level of resistance I sold was the minimum of the last week). I just put my sell limit at 1.26300 and bang! Right on the TOP. Just for all...

That's BillyRay type tradin' my friend. Took that trade also, however those bear exhaustion candles had me moving that stop to BE rather quickly.
  • #3,964
  • Nov 1, 2014 5:33pm Nov 1, 2014 5:33pm
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Well, I wasn't talking about what works everyday but rather what can happen over a period of months. Some of the levels you mentioned in your strategy can yield negative results for a while until they pick up again. I am guessing that you use additional filters (analysis of current fundamental situation or other technical confluences) to avoid certain trades when market conditions are less favorable. I doubt that you would fade one of your levels against a freight train like the one that came out of JPY last night. Please correct me if I'm...
Interesting that you mention the yen freight train. Price bounced off the US close during the Asian market and never looked back. This happens a lot and no it would be rather stupid to trade against a BOJ action.
  • #3,965
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:58pm Nov 2, 2014 6:58pm
Hi all,

As I've mentioned in my last post, I made a little EA just to draw S/R lines. Someone ask me and I'm posting it to everybody. Works as follows:

1) M15 chart - draw min & max from last day and the opening level of the current day (color changes from blue/red and red/blue if the H1 closes up/down the lines)
2) H1 chart - draw min & max from last day, the opening level of the current day, min & max from last week and also the opening level of the current week (color changes from blue/red and red/blue if the H1 closes up/down the lines)
3) H4 chart - draw min & max from last week and also the opening level of the current week (color changes from blue/red and red/blue if the H4 closes up/down the lines)

At the other timeframes this EA doesn't draw anything (chart goes blank). Important: I coded as an expert advisor, and not an indicator, so put it on the expert advisors path (I know it could be better as an indicator, allowing us to use another EA on the chart, but at the time it was the quickest way to had it done).

If anyone has any suggestions for us to improve this, trying to simplify this type of trading as a methodology easy to understand and follow systematically, I'm all ears, just contact me.

Good week for all and green pips!

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 levels.mq4   11 KB | 492 downloads
  • #3,966
  • Nov 2, 2014 7:18pm Nov 2, 2014 7:18pm
Great to see you around again Chris! I don't trade as you have outlined in your thread, but I definitely credit you with opening my eyes to other possibilities and helping me to gain a basic understanding of market flow.
Thanks Brother!
Freedom 30?
  • #3,967
  • Nov 2, 2014 8:29pm Nov 2, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} That's BillyRay type tradin' my friend. Took that trade also, however those bear exhaustion candles had me moving that stop to BE rather quickly.
  • #3,968
  • Nov 5, 2014 8:54am Nov 5, 2014 8:54am
Quoting gustcoelho
Hi all, As I've mentioned in my last post, I made a little EA just to draw S/R lines. Someone ask me and I'm posting it to everybody. Works as follows: 1) M15 chart - draw min & max from last day and the opening level of the current day (color changes from blue/red and red/blue if the H1 closes up/down the lines) 2) H1 chart - draw min & max from last day, the opening level of the current day, min & max from last week and also the opening level of the current week (color changes from blue/red and red/blue if the H1 closes up/down the lines) 3) H4...
Hi Gustco,
Thanks for EA. Can you please add writing to your lines "Like Last Week High" or "yesterday London OPen"?
Like picture below for yesterday Hi and Low.
Thanks
Attached Image
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #3,969
  • Nov 5, 2014 6:52pm Nov 5, 2014 6:52pm
Quoting mike1349
{quote} Hi Gustco, Thanks for EA. Can you please add writing to your lines "Like Last Week High" or "yesterday London OPen"? Like picture below for yesterday Hi and Low. Thanks {image}
hi mike!

sure, give me some time and soon i'll post here
  • #3,970
  • Nov 6, 2014 7:00am Nov 6, 2014 7:00am
Thanks
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #3,971
  • Nov 8, 2014 9:42am Nov 8, 2014 9:42am
Quoting gustcoelho
{quote} hi mike! sure, give me some time and soon i'll post here
Hi Gustco,
I was reviewing my notes .here is the lines that pilot uses: (As much as I know)

1)Daily high and Low,Daily open(0:00 EST)
2)Last week High,Last week Low,Last week close(Friday 17 EST), Last week Open,Red Line:This week open(Monday 12 am EST)
3)Blue line:London Close(17 GMT), Green: Yesterday High,Yesterday Low,London Open(8 GMT)
4)New york Close(20 GMT)

If I found Other thing I"ll share it in here
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #3,972
  • Jan 12, 2015 11:53am Jan 12, 2015 11:53am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Throw a line on your chart at the London close price today. You can do this with GJ and GU. This evening during the Tokyo market on GJ if the price approaches the close price note what happens. Tomorrow during London if price approaches today's close on either pair note what happens. While you are waiting for this to come you can scroll back through several months on your charts and note the reactions. Take some averages for draw down and profit distance then you should have something that resembles a profitable method taking shape. This...
Just seen this - how would you define the London close -midnight maybe ?
Thanks in advance
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,973
  • Jan 19, 2015 5:33am Jan 19, 2015 5:33am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Just seen this - how would you define the London close -midnight maybe ? Thanks in advance
London closes at 5pm London time. Normally this is noon Eastern, but time zones do change during the year so the times do change for short periods. I won't really go into time zones any more as it can result in two pages of confusion. Just google the time in the city you are concerned with.
  • #3,974
  • Jan 19, 2015 5:51am Jan 19, 2015 5:51am
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Well, I wasn't talking about what works everyday but rather what can happen over a period of months. Some of the levels you mentioned in your strategy can yield negative results for a while until they pick up again. I am guessing that you use additional filters (analysis of current fundamental situation or other technical confluences) to avoid certain trades when market conditions are less favorable. I doubt that you would fade one of your levels against a freight train like the one that came out of JPY last night. Please correct me if I'm...
I want to address this in a little more detail than my last reply to your question/statement.

I absolutely use discretion in my trading. I mention some of the decision making processes in the thread but it would be impossible to explain everything that goes into trading. The thread isn't really about the method of selecting trades but I was trying to get across to people, especially newer traders, a framework from which to learn. I said many times throughout the thread that I was not explaining a complete method but the basis for the reader to grow into their own method. The backtests mentioned in the thread were to try to impress on people that the simplest concepts could be profitable if traded with discipline. Of course the methods discussed in the thread are not complete. They are profitable as explained but with time and experience I know the readers of the thread would add their own twist to improve their performance.

I have lots of experience and screen time. I use this knowledge to filter out trades. Some times I will skip or exit trades and cannot really explain my own reasoning. Sometimes I just get a "feeling" and act on it. I always enter trades in specific rule based ways (some of them explained here) but the exits are sometimes subjective. I always have a target but don't always hold the trade. Sometimes I am wrong. Much of the discretion in my trading is looking for the major currency that seems to be causing moves. It is far too complicated to explain on an internet forum. I think it would take weeks of live face to face training to begin to scratch the surface of all the nuances of trading. This was not and is not my goal for this thread. I simply was trying to give people a start with some simple proven concepts that they could use to build a framework and a future in trading.
  • #3,975
  • Jan 20, 2015 3:05am Jan 20, 2015 3:05am
I have been working on holding trades longer. Nice improvement from last year. It still isn't easy. ;-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15.png Size: 50 KB
  • #3,976
  • Feb 3, 2015 6:48am Feb 3, 2015 6:48am
I haven't really been using my test account for new methods lately so I started to trade it when I have time. I have decided I want a new trading computer and think I will earn the money with this account. I opened the explorer and thought someone might get some use out of following along with some of the trades. Have fun.
  • #3,977
  • Feb 4, 2015 11:52am Feb 4, 2015 11:52am
Thanks for sharing. I know how i will spend my weekend..
  • #3,978
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:08pm Feb 4, 2015 2:08pm
One quick caution with the explorer. It is still an experimental account. Don't put much stock into the older trades because there are some oddballs in there when I would try some new ideas. I am currently playing around with money management so I have blocked lot sizes and account size. I am entering trades in pieces right now and am playing around with closing some and keeping some when the situation calls for it. I am specifically trying to hyper grow this account so I am using a little more leverage than normal. I am fine with four or even five percent risk in this account right now while it would make me puke in my larger accounts.

My trade this morning short at yesterday's high was a terrible exit as price went on down quite a bit. I then started buying around last weeks and yesterdays mid accumulating a position for ADP only to get an iffy number. Bad trade management and one bad exit and one good one result in nice gains. As I have been saying in the thread all along, I am an average trader at best but you do NOT have to be perfect to make money at this. You can do it if you focus on the basics.

Good luck to everyone.
  • #3,979
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:14pm Feb 4, 2015 2:14pm
PS.

Please don't ask me to go into method. I have huge demands on my time and can't maintain a thread any more. I just thought with all the negativity and accusations on the forum of posters with no "proof" of their profits, I would put up the explorer and let it speak to the ability for retail traders to make money. From time to time I may post some screenshots of trades when I think there might be a lesson to be learned from a specific trade.
  • #3,980
  • Feb 5, 2015 4:51am Feb 5, 2015 4:51am
I was trying to link my account to fxbook today and can't. I keep getting a message that they can't account for all my deposits. There have only been two deposits to the account since it was opened. I assume they can't get the first one since the account is over two years old. If I can't figure out how to get it linked I am going to have to move to a new account. I want the fxbook link as their stats are better than the ones on this site. Do any of you know a way around this? I don't really want to open a new account and transfer everything over.
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