- #86,248
- Nov 2, 2014 10:04am Nov 2, 2014 10:04am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,864 Posts
I think there is a very good chance the audusd will fall
in looking at the day and the week charts
we see 3 reversals and a strong weakness sign all in the last week.
the cot chart is very clear as well (1) up in interest and (2) big boys selling
cheers
in looking at the day and the week charts
we see 3 reversals and a strong weakness sign all in the last week.
the cot chart is very clear as well (1) up in interest and (2) big boys selling
cheers
- #86,250
- Nov 2, 2014 10:50am Nov 2, 2014 10:50am
- | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Eating potato chips | 629 Posts
I think there is a very good chance the audusd will fall in looking at the day and the week charts we see 3 reversals and a strong weakness sign all in the last week. the cot chart is very clear as well (1) up in interest and (2) big boys selling cheers
- #86,252
- Edited 11:28am Nov 2, 2014 10:56am | Edited 11:28am
I think there is a very good chance the audusd will ...
and the CHANGE in SSI (Green area) - where everyone can easily see SSI Trend Down = audusd Trend UP
.Please note that the SSI change Now - is Down ....
Source of Data link
Siddhartha G
- #86,253
- Nov 2, 2014 11:29am Nov 2, 2014 11:29am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
- #86,254
- Edited 12:43pm Nov 2, 2014 11:31am | Edited 12:43pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
{quote} Regarding your excellent image Mr. TEB63 - I tend to see it differently. As everyone here can see THE DIRECTION OF CHANGE of Large Specs (the orange line in your graph) is PERFECTLY SYNCHRONIZED with market TREND. So - When the direction of large specs is neutral i.e. horizontal (meaning they hold their short exposure and long exposure Constant) - then the Market changes trend. This is the actual situation NOW. Same conclusion can be reached from the ANTI-correlated Direction of change of small specs - in your graph and in the SSI image...
- #86,256
- Edited 12:32pm Nov 2, 2014 12:00pm | Edited 12:32pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,864 Posts
{quote} Regarding your excellent image Mr. TEB63 - I tend to see it differently. As everyone here can see THE DIRECTION OF CHANGE of Large Specs (the orange line in your graph) is PERFECTLY SYNCHRONIZED with market TREND. So - When the direction of large specs is neutral i.e. horizontal (meaning they hold their short exposure and long exposure Constant) - then the Market changes trend. This is the actual situation NOW. Same conclusion can be reached from the ANTI-correlated Direction of change of small specs - in your graph and in the SSI image...
I was using cot as back up
I see the normal week chart are the main key in fact.
and the day chart very strong support.
However - here is how I read all the cot charts you graciously gave and also myown
(1) The big boys have increased their shorts - not by much but they are not flat or decrease them.
(2) the over all interest is up - again not by much but a little.
(3) We see neither the big boy's shorts or the over all interest are at extremes - so a reversal is not likely (always possible of course)
(4) The above 3 points, I would say tell us the big boys are not closing their contracts but rather still adding to their shorts.
Therefore : I would see all these charts as bearish
cheers
teb
- #86,257
- Nov 2, 2014 12:21pm Nov 2, 2014 12:21pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
- #86,258
- Nov 2, 2014 1:26pm Nov 2, 2014 1:26pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,864 Posts
{quote} For everybody's convenience I have shown by straight lines the trends of the audusd PRICE [Price is Black line] and the CHANGE in SSI (Green area) - where everyone can easily see SSI Trend Down = audusd Trend UP
Hi Isingh
About the SSI - I know it reads the "Dump money"(DM) the non pro
By the way my reading of the SSI was in fact bearish.
But having said that I would rather follow the "smart money"(SM)
Here is the reason
(A) I do not believe the DM always does the wrong thing - most times of coarse (I have been beat a few times on this LOL)
(B) I believe they just do not do the right thing at the right time for the right reason ever.
statement (A) and (B) sound the same but they are not.
Having said that I believe the SM almost always does the right thing at the right time for the right reason.
You will find many times SM & DM are doing the same thing at the same time.
so the DM is right but they will be doing it normally for the wrong reason.
Here is what I try to do
follow pros - to be the small flea on the tail of the pro's dog and so be on the winning team
just my 2 cents
cheers
TEB
- #86,259
- Nov 2, 2014 2:48pm Nov 2, 2014 2:48pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
Some very interesting posts, and different views...
At any rate, I'm sure there are a lot of successful traders here, with different approaches, and I respect that.
For me, the chart tells me everything I need to know. Currently, AUDUSD is in a very volatile trend up, which could be viewed as a bear flag channel.
What tells me that primarily, the big money is simply ranging the price, is that if you look over the past 5 weeks, and pick out the most decisive moves, you'll see 4 altogether, a strong move up, followed by a strong move down, which occurred twice (shown by arrows on attached chart).
Long term view - bear flag channel up patterns typically break out downward, but obviously no guarantee.
Short to mid-term view - we could bounce up and down in this channel all the way up to 90+ very easily.
Having said all of this, I would only trade this pair when it hits the extreme of the outer channel edge (using horizontal S/R levels as confirmation), buy from the bottom, or sell from the top. In my humble opinion, the short term "trend" up is too volatile to buy and hold, and if the short term trend is up why would I sell and hold?
With such volatility, it could break out in any direction, and start a new up or down channel. Plus, as I mentioned above, the decisive moves are in both directions, i.e. again, the volatility, so, I do not see any clear evidence to pick a long term direction and hold at this point.
I still have the opinion that we'll hit 90+ before it breaks the channel downward, and that the longer term downward trend will in fact continue. However, the channel is 200 pips wide! That's a lot of room for gaining pips before it breaks out of the channel. Short-term view is we'll see a dip before it starts making new highs...
Happy trading!
edit:replaced chart with one showing the arrows
At any rate, I'm sure there are a lot of successful traders here, with different approaches, and I respect that.
For me, the chart tells me everything I need to know. Currently, AUDUSD is in a very volatile trend up, which could be viewed as a bear flag channel.
What tells me that primarily, the big money is simply ranging the price, is that if you look over the past 5 weeks, and pick out the most decisive moves, you'll see 4 altogether, a strong move up, followed by a strong move down, which occurred twice (shown by arrows on attached chart).
Long term view - bear flag channel up patterns typically break out downward, but obviously no guarantee.
Short to mid-term view - we could bounce up and down in this channel all the way up to 90+ very easily.
Having said all of this, I would only trade this pair when it hits the extreme of the outer channel edge (using horizontal S/R levels as confirmation), buy from the bottom, or sell from the top. In my humble opinion, the short term "trend" up is too volatile to buy and hold, and if the short term trend is up why would I sell and hold?
With such volatility, it could break out in any direction, and start a new up or down channel. Plus, as I mentioned above, the decisive moves are in both directions, i.e. again, the volatility, so, I do not see any clear evidence to pick a long term direction and hold at this point.
I still have the opinion that we'll hit 90+ before it breaks the channel downward, and that the longer term downward trend will in fact continue. However, the channel is 200 pips wide! That's a lot of room for gaining pips before it breaks out of the channel. Short-term view is we'll see a dip before it starts making new highs...
Happy trading!
edit:replaced chart with one showing the arrows
