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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #15,041
  • Edited 8:30pm Oct 31, 2014 6:05pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting moneyflow21
I cannot believe that I missed this MONSTER trade this morning!!! I wake up to see that my beautiful "beast" devoured it's territory by moving up almost 500 pips on one daily candle? Most pairs don't move 500 pips in a whole week and this thing did it in one day! Are you kidding me? Go look at all of the Yen pairs' Daily candles.
I think this move is indicative of large volumes. IMO, there will be many more big moves around the corner, so don't dwell. Lots of data coming out this week. I think we could see some surprises, depending on risk sentiment.
  • #15,042
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:58pm Oct 31, 2014 11:58pm
So.....I was figuring on whether wave 5 was over ....gbp/usd should resume down moves a couple a hundred pips......but........

My extended major wave three in GBP/JPY is showing itself.
  • #15,043
  • Nov 1, 2014 1:11am Nov 1, 2014 1:11am
so she will continue to 190 zone ?
Learning and Learing
  • #15,044
  • Edited 8:16am Nov 1, 2014 2:02am | Edited 8:16am
Quoting pladee
so she will continue to 190 zone ?
IMO, that's 'the path of 'least resistence' . If this pair just resumes trending, this would indicate that the price is where it deserves to be - and not merely a result of an inflated reaction. I think there will be extreme interest upon any kind of retracement / shallow pause in this pair.
  • #15,045
  • Edited 7:15am Nov 1, 2014 4:51am | Edited 7:15am
Quoting moneyflow21
I cannot believe that I missed this MONSTER trade this morning!!! I wake up to see that my beautiful "beast" devoured it's territory by moving up almost 500 pips on one daily candle? Most pairs don't move 500 pips in a whole week and this thing did it in one day! Are you kidding me? Go look at all of the Yen pairs' Daily candles.
I have to thank you for this post. I was looking back in here to find when the BoJ first announced their QE plan for reaching 2% inflation. I didn't find the section of posts (yet) when we were all going crazy enjoying the results. Over 650 pips in a day and 1350 in 7.

Anyway, the reason for the thanks is I just spent a few hours last night and this morning reading all our (Geppy, mine and others) posts back then and it was fun trip down memory lane.

Spent almost a year just kicking this pair and having a boat load of fun doing so.

EDIT: Found the start of it. Good times.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post6571044
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #15,046
  • Edited 5:36am Nov 1, 2014 5:06am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi FX Ray, congrats on your efforts. You are talking about decision points a lot, how do you define these? You can come to Oktoberfest Nightclub more often! Only trading, no trolling! Have a nice weekend! I am a bit sad about developments in my trading results during the last few weeks, but will be back.
Ive been there alot but these guys are like HFT-Algos compared to me
I define those DP through a algo but you dont need a algo to determine these. Some Traders are very good by spotting these watching a chart.
I had problems with that, too much subjectivity for my personality, thats why I built a algo to do the work for me.
You can draw the lines in your chart and watch back in the chart what happend in the past at that levels, so you can spot them yourself in the future.

Add: I post there sometimes but I think you are in good hands with Schick
  • #15,047
  • Nov 1, 2014 8:14am Nov 1, 2014 8:14am
Hy to everybody... I'm quite sad and really worried for my old short position on geppy
I ve really bad pmc and after a couple of weeks in which my positions seems recovering now it's really hard be calm and do the right thing.
I ve few margin now and reading here I'm thinking to edge my position... Geppy it's really a monster and last news fro Japan are really bad for me...
So are you thinking that 1.90 or more is coming or could I hope for some retrace?
I'm really don't know what I can do now and I don't know which level consider for a retrace... So any suggest is really appreciated
Thanks
Regards
  • #15,048
  • Nov 1, 2014 8:26am Nov 1, 2014 8:26am
Quoting cescof
Hy to everybody... I'm quite sad and really worried for my old short position on geppy I ve really bad pmc and after a couple of weeks in which my positions seems recovering now it's really hard be calm and do the right thing. I ve few margin now and reading here I'm thinking to edge my position... Geppy it's really a monster and last news fro Japan are really bad for me... So are you thinking that 1.90 or more is coming or could I hope for some retrace? I'm really don't know what I can do now and I don't know which level consider for a retrace......
Don't worry friend is will fall down any moment, best of luck.
  • #15,049
  • Nov 1, 2014 8:54am Nov 1, 2014 8:54am
Thanks, but i can't get out now... my big mistake it was use a grid Ea without any knoledge of many and many month ago... When price dropped to 168 i had to close may of my old positionor edging it.... I' dit it for a while but not to much ... Now i've this and other position in big DD and i can't throw away all my money here... So i can't stop now for me and for my children...
I know well that's health, love, family is before everything but i have to solve this big problem now and i want find the right way...
Thanks
Regards
  • #15,050
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:04am Nov 2, 2014 6:04am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Ive been there alot but these guys are like HFT-Algos compared to me I define those DP through a algo but you dont need a algo to determine these. Some Traders are very good by spotting these watching a chart. I had problems with that, too much subjectivity for my personality, thats why I built a algo to do the work for me. You can draw the lines in your chart and watch back in the chart what happend in the past at that levels, so you can spot them yourself in the future. Add: I post there sometimes but I think you are in good hands with...
True, they are like Algos lol Especially trading emotionless unlike me. I get stopped out, they enter again and happy pipping lol I have no clue about algos, but it should be managable to trade without somehow. I have already reduced the pairs I trade which has helped and reduced the draw downs by consequently using stops. But the winning rate of trades has dropped to a devastating 16 % during the last three weeks which has led to 10 % DD. Just variance or need to refine methods? Probably the latter ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,051
  • Nov 2, 2014 6:13am Nov 2, 2014 6:13am
Quoting cescof
Hy to everybody... I'm quite sad and really worried for my old short position on geppy I ve really bad pmc and after a couple of weeks in which my positions seems recovering now it's really hard be calm and do the right thing. I ve few margin now and reading here I'm thinking to edge my position... Geppy it's really a monster and last news fro Japan are really bad for me... So are you thinking that 1.90 or more is coming or could I hope for some retrace? I'm really don't know what I can do now and I don't know which level consider for a retrace......
This is sad to read. Honestly I think it can go more up without retracing, nobody knows of course. Your margin is basically gone, so you can probably only hope and wait until your broker closes your positions when everything will be gone. That is the most likely outcome. If you are lucky, it will turn before your margin expires, but that is not so likely. Learn from it and do not trade merely for hope - I have also done it in my life and it is only painful. Wish you all the best no matter what the outcome is, in the end the things like health and family are the only ones that really matter.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #15,052
  • Nov 2, 2014 7:07am Nov 2, 2014 7:07am
Quoting cescof
Hy to everybody... I'm quite sad and really worried for my old short position on geppy I ve really bad pmc and after a couple of weeks in which my positions seems recovering now it's really hard be calm and do the right thing. I ve few margin now and reading here I'm thinking to edge my position... Geppy it's really a monster and last news fro Japan are really bad for me... So are you thinking that 1.90 or more is coming or could I hope for some retrace? I'm really don't know what I can do now and I don't know which level consider for a retrace......
I hear you man. I have a short sitting down at 172 right now. I closed off most of it and took quite the hit to my account, but I left a bit sitting down there. Honestly, pay attention to FX-Ray's decision points. His points are pretty damn solid. Worth paying attention to for sure.

As far as a retracement? I think so. When? Not sure. But the pair did shoot up 500 pips in one day. It was a pretty huge jump. I'm looking back at April 2013 on the daily charts for a sort of comparison. I'm not sure what the situation was then, but there was a total of a 1340 pip jump with bullish weekend gapping, before any retracement. And that retracement only brought it down to 30 pips below the close of the inital 600+ pip daily bull rush.

Going by the old mantra of "what was once resistance, becomes support", 175.350 would likely be the lowest point it would come down to now. There are some levels above it that it could settle at, but 175.350 is the one I'm seeing that existed before that massive market manipulation that led up to the scottish independence vote.

I have my position hedged right now with a small long position. I've already surpassed break-even, so I have my stop set above my entry in case the market rejects FX-Ray's decision point of 179.80/60. IMO, if the market seems flat for a few days, it's likely to rush up again. When it's stuck in overbought territory for a while, it has minor up and down movements to barely ease out of that area, before moving up again. If you start seeing that, open a long, and keep a close stop behind it in case it whips back down to help minimize your losses.

Also, don't forget, Kuroda is delivering another speech on tuesday. I'm not sure how much impact it will have since he's already released the biggest news on the yen, but it might kick the pairing up even further.

That's my two cents on it right now. I'm probably not going to touch it that much this week, if at all. Just sit on my long, unless it rejects the decision point and drops down.

I'm probably going to look more at some day trades on the E/U in the meantime to help make up for the losses I took during the trading week.
  • #15,053
  • Nov 2, 2014 7:20am Nov 2, 2014 7:20am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} I hear you man. I have a short sitting down at 172 right now. I closed off most of it and took quite the hit to my account, but I left a bit sitting down there. Honestly, pay attention to FX-Ray's decision points. His points are pretty damn solid. Worth paying attention to for sure. As far as a retracement? I think so. When? Not sure. But the pair did shoot up 500 pips in one day. It was a pretty huge jump. I'm looking back at April 2013 on the daily charts for a sort of comparison. I'm not sure what the situation was then, but there was...
Really thanks for share your experiece... I'll probably edge part of my position but every time i did it was a disaster...
I hope for a normal open tonight without any gap up.... in that case i'll wait and hope for a better point to enter...In my thinking it's posbbile geppy continue his growing but in that case we have to expect growing for cable cause USD/JPY can't go so up.... and in that case i will reduce my DD with my cable position...
We will see but in any case i'm really dejected...
Regards
  • #15,054
  • Nov 2, 2014 7:38am Nov 2, 2014 7:38am
IMO, it wouldn't be unwise to avoid entering JPY crosses for the next day/couple of days (unless Monday brings more irrepressible buying). Market conditions, combined with fundamental ramifications from Friday's decision MIGHT weigh on this pair. Of course, market may totally disregard these - more than likely will.
  • #15,055
  • Edited 12:20pm Nov 2, 2014 12:02pm | Edited 12:20pm
Decision points calendar week 45 GBP/JPY alias 'The Dragon':

(0) 189.60/00 (Six-Sigma)
(1) 185.00/80
(2) 183.20/00
(3) 179.80/60
(4) 176.20/00
(5) 173.20/00
(6) 168.20/00
(7) 166.80/00 (Six-Sigma)

Still no big changes, last week closed at DP (3); IŽd like to mention few scenarios:

Scenario 1: DP (3) support, continuation to DP (2)
Scenario 2: DP (3) resistance, continuation to DP (4)
Scenario 3: DP (3) resistance; test of 178.80 or 177.90 or 177.00 then break of DP (3); test of DP (3) from above then continuation to DP (2)

Good Luck everyone!

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  • #15,056
  • Edited 12:31pm Nov 2, 2014 12:28pm | Edited 12:31pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision points calendar week 45 GBP/JPY alias 'The Dragon': (0) 189.60/00 (Six-Sigma) (1) 185.00/80 (2) 183.20/00 (3) 179.80/60 (4) 176.20/00 (5) 173.20/00 (6) 168.20/00 (7) 166.80/00 (Six-Sigma) Still no big changes, last week closed at DP (3); IŽd like to mention few scenarios: Scenario 1: DP (3) support, continuation to DP (2) Scenario 2: DP (3) resistance, continuation to DP (4) Scenario 3: DP (3) resistance; test of 178.80 or 177.90 or 177.00 then break of DP (3); test of DP (3) from above then continuation to DP (2) Good Luck everyone! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdSMZTSRQNc...
IŽd like to give a lesson to those who are newbies and serious about trading:

Trade ONLY at DPs, ignore everything else, any 'PA', 'TA', 'Momentum', '[Put anything here you want]', try to watch the madness in front of your eyes and accept the fact you dont know anything and cant predict anything and be in peace with it.
If you trade only at DP and youŽll take losses, its fine. If you are able to make profits, its fine too but the main goal is to accept everything mentioned above.

Those who do it, IŽd like a feedback after Friday Close, per PM or here, as you like.

Everyone else, just ignore this post
  • #15,057
  • Nov 2, 2014 12:33pm Nov 2, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} IŽd like to give a lesson to those who are newbies and serious about trading: Trade ONLY at DP, ignore everything else, any 'PA', 'TA', 'Momentum', '[Put anything here you want]', try to watch the madness in front of your eyes and accept the fact you dont know anything and cant predict anything and be in peace with it. If you trade only at DP and youŽll take losses, its fine. If you are able to make profits, its fine too but the main goal is to accept everything mentioned above. Those who do it, IŽd like a feedback after Friday Close, per...
I'm obviously a newbie.... So in this case I have to monitoring this 79.80 level to see if is resistance or support.... But how consider false breakout.. Have you some suggests? Really thanks Regards
  • #15,058
  • Nov 2, 2014 12:40pm Nov 2, 2014 12:40pm
Hi Ray,
How are you calculating your DP's
  • #15,059
  • Nov 2, 2014 12:42pm Nov 2, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting cescof
{quote} I'm obviously a newbie.... So in this case I have to monitoring this 79.80 level to see if is resistance or support.... But how consider false breakout.. Have you some suggests? Really thanks Regards
No considerations, you dont know, me neither. Ill focus on facts:

- I enter a position, it doesnt go in direction of my expectations, Ill bail.
- I enter a position, it does go in direction of my expectations, IŽll add.

If I feel uneasy IŽll liquidate but the goal is to be in peace with it.

Trade as small as you can.
  • #15,060
  • Nov 2, 2014 12:42pm Nov 2, 2014 12:42pm
​180.05 opens but falling away
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