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The similarity system

  • #11,381
  • Oct 31, 2014 10:01am Oct 31, 2014 10:01am
Quoting Eurusdd
Let me state this clearly as possible: 1: choose your time-frame 2: choose your currency pair 3: choose any price level, p and a value for h. The proposition says that the relative frequency of the number of times the market reached p and p was h-recurrent will approach 1 almost surely as time goes to infinity. Now, since we cannot experience infinity, what about the short run. The theorem predicts that there is a minimum value for h such that 97% of price levels - hit in the past - will have h-recurrent relative frequencies close to 1. Therefore,...
Thank you Eurusdd, now I finally get it what you mean by RARE-RARE event.


EDIT: this is essentially what FX-Jay is showing us in those charts
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #11,382
  • Oct 31, 2014 10:26am Oct 31, 2014 10:26am
Quoting FX-Jay
For all visual learners out there &/or lazy asses that want their pips served on silver plate, here's what Eurusdd is saying in his last post. Check it out and thank me later ( eventhough I'm pretty sure you won't, you're way to busy figuring out how I'm faking my real results, no? ) I want to make it clear that this is NOT how I trade this concept, but the idea did start from here. This was the initial proposition, but I decided to to tweak it and make it work my way. If you managed to check my previous contributions, you would have realized...
This is what you explained .It is now on EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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DON'T GIVE UP
  • #11,383
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:07am Oct 31, 2014 11:07am
i just have my eureka moment, after look at FX-Jay chart.

i thought i understand Eurusdd, but i don't because of "recurrent" words.
English is not my main language, lol.

Thank you very much, Eurusdd.
Thank you very much, FX-Jay.

anyway, because of wrong understanding "recurrent" words,
i am able to increase my win rate with binary option.

http://i.imgur.com/1z1H0hT.png

http://i.imgur.com/QWGoGCr.png
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #11,384
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:37am Oct 31, 2014 11:37am
Quoting Robertk
{quote} Actually Jay, that DD you would have gotten isnt necessary "60". If you can locate recurrent zones by using various methods (not just Freefox's setting curve-fitting) you can actually hedge yourself out with relatively low DD. If one manages to do this correctly its most of the times a win-win.
I totally agree!

Just my point was to show that there are many chances of failure in this method, so it shouldn't be taken as it is on face value.
Everyone should work on improving this to reduce the effect the impact of losing trades and eventually eliminate them or turn them into winners.

I'd like to believe that I have reached this stage. However, no one is perfect, and I'm constantly looking to try to improve and develop.

I hope that now that this is clearly presented (it was here since day one), more ideas will pour into the thread, and the level of discussion will improve after becoming quite ridiculous in the last week or two.
  • #11,385
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:48am Oct 31, 2014 11:48am
Quoting Zelo
i just have my eureka moment, after look at FX-Jay chart. i thought i understand Eurusdd, but i don't because of "recurrent" words. English is not my main language, lol. Thank you very much, Eurusdd. Thank you very much, FX-Jay. anyway, because of wrong understanding "recurrent" words, i am able to increase my win rate with binary option. {image} {image}
My next project will be binary options.
The ideas presented here should create unimaginable results using binary options.
I have started my research, and will be updating here when ready.

In the last 2 months I had 446 out of 484 trades in profit with a maximum of 3 losing trades in a row.
So if I was trading binary for a $1,000 per bet, I would have turned $10,000 into $400,000 with a max draw-down on $3,000.

The numbers need to be tested for sure, and the % of profit per bet that the binary brokers gives out should be also taken into consideration. That's why I said a more detailed analysis will be done from my side to further understand the binary options industry.

Best,
Jay
  • #11,386
  • Edited 12:37pm Oct 31, 2014 12:21pm | Edited 12:37pm
Also, what is good knowing is that in fact, every single price is recurrent most of the time. While this is mentioned before it is a very important detail because the recurrent prices we observe are mostly taking place above/below the tops and bottoms, marked by Freefox's indi and corresponding with (H) input.

However, while this is effective, there are many other areas that can act as a very strong recurrent area (there does not need to be a marked previous TZ zone or whatsoever but with included probabilities from krpa's statistics it is indeed a powerful tool). However, sssentially you want a decent sized, almost certain fluctuation that would win both ways if played correctly(hint, there are also OVERLAPPING areas). When you eyeball the market these levels are everywhere because thats what the market consists of, fluctuations. To spot, and trade the certain ones is a different story but they do exist and Freefox's indi is a great tool to get one started (in at least triggering the basic concept) .
  • #11,387
  • Oct 31, 2014 2:43pm Oct 31, 2014 2:43pm
Eurusdd and Fx-Jay,

I've just thought of some things.

P.1/ We have probability that is equal 1 at every Time Frame. Shifting the TFs, we have the same probability, but at another H and K.

Let us solve the opposite task out. Let us take the appropriate probability (it can be set manually or calculated as well) and re-calculate H and K. Since H is responsible for the TF's "window of probability", if I am right, we can find it out and take it as a constant for the forthcoming calculations. Having switched to another TF, we re-calculate K again... and again. We re-calculate new Ks for all timeframes by this method. Calculating H and K at the given probability from all TFs give us the most probable resulting price levels (so-called "clouds of probability"), at which prices might be rejected out.

P.2/ There is a conclusion from P.1. - one can program the multi-TF indicator that, in rurn, can picture the most probable price levels taken from the higher TFs in order to depict them on the lower TFs' charts.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #11,388
  • Oct 31, 2014 4:25pm Oct 31, 2014 4:25pm
Another result from Fx JAY post
when price return back to the same price of previously confirmed TZ so i din't expect it will be TZ as it is rare event so we expect price will move below or above this zone so why don't we open order here with target above or below previous tz area or make hedge at this point ???
DON'T GIVE UP
  • #11,389
  • Oct 31, 2014 4:37pm Oct 31, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting FX-Jay
For all visual learners out there &/or lazy asses that want their pips served on silver plate, here's what Eurusdd is saying in his last post. Check it out and thank me later ( eventhough I'm pretty sure you won't, you're way to busy figuring out how I'm faking my real results, no? ) I want to make it clear that this is NOT how I trade this concept, but the idea did start from here. This was the initial proposition, but I decided to to tweak it and make it work my way. If you managed to check my previous contributions, you would have realized...
Suddenly i see clear, thank you FX Jay for the nice and clear chart. why hasn't anybody explained that before? A Picture is worth more than 1000 words...but one more question FX Jay, after the red circle, price breaks through into the recurrent Zone (above blue lines) and we know price has to come back to the pricelevel where the red circle is. but how do we know where to enter short? how can we recognize when the top has reached and Price is turning ? thanks mex
  • #11,390
  • Oct 31, 2014 4:39pm Oct 31, 2014 4:39pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Hi Jay, I know you got you got your own thing, which is great. I have 3 variations of H/K that I'm testing now. BUT to be clear, clear for other readers. This trade that you marked is not what EURUSDD is talking about... I don't want to give out too much.. haha
But it did come back up.
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  • #11,391
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:53pm Oct 31, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} My next project will be binary options. The ideas presented here should create unimaginable results using binary options. I have started my research, and will be updating here when ready. In the last 2 months I had 446 out of 484 trades in profit with a maximum of 3 losing trades in a row. So if I was trading binary for a $1,000 per bet, I would have turned $10,000 into $400,000 with a max draw-down on $3,000. The numbers need to be tested for sure, and the % of profit per bet that the binary brokers gives out should be also taken into consideration....
It is really great to hear that you have awesome results with binary option, Jay.

That motivates me to achieve better results like you.

Although i have ~90% win rate with 60s-120s binary option, but i will switch to 5 minutes for better payout, 75% profit per bet.
5 Minutes doesn't need fast action like 60s-120s and have good amount of bets per day.

I would love to reading about your research, Jay.

All the Best,
Zelo
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #11,392
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:12pm Oct 31, 2014 9:12pm
Quoting mex2000
{quote} Suddenly i see clear, thank you FX Jay for the nice and clear chart. why hasn't anybody explained that before? A Picture is worth more than 1000 words...but one more question FX Jay, after the red circle, price breaks through into the recurrent Zone (above blue lines) and we know price has to come back to the pricelevel where the red circle is. but how do we know where to enter short? how can we recognize when the top has reached and Price is turning ? thanks mex
Why didn't anyone show that before? Are you people kidding? I am done here, BYE
  • #11,393
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:24pm Oct 31, 2014 9:24pm
Hi Guys..

Just wanted to clarify something...so if a TZ is broken either upwards or downwards then we assume that chances are price will come back to test that TZ within the set H of candles.

Am seeing it right..

Regards
  • #11,394
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:36pm Oct 31, 2014 9:36pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Why didn't anyone show that before? Are you people kidding? I am done here, BYE
Baillie

Your information is paramount. I for one wold like to say thank you and all the other front-liners. Back a few weeks I just could not get my head around what came to many of you guys quickly.

All of you have and continue to teach me amazing concepts that I have never explored. I live in this thread currently...

Thanks
  • #11,395
  • Oct 31, 2014 10:16pm Oct 31, 2014 10:16pm
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} Baillie Your information is paramount. I for one wold like to say thank you and all the other front-liners. Back a few weeks I just could not get my head around what came to many of you guys quickly. All of you have and continue to teach me amazing concepts that I have never explored. I live in this thread currently... Thanks
THANK YOU RAHIMSEVEN for sharing with us because i was one of those that didn't clearly understood what where they talking about
  • #11,396
  • Oct 31, 2014 10:20pm Oct 31, 2014 10:20pm
now i wonder how can you still make a profit when the trend it's strong? hedging and the unlock the hedge at the next opportunity?
  • #11,397
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:53pm Oct 31, 2014 11:53pm
Quoting Kiads
{quote} Thank You Sir EURUSDD, I will waiting patiently .. with enthusiast God Bless You... {image} MTH
+1 nice pictures mate. You collect all of them ?
  • #11,398
  • Edited 1:44am Nov 1, 2014 12:29am | Edited 1:44am
Quoting Eurusdd
Hi people: I will be away from this forum and thread till January. When I return I hope to onece and for all silence all doubters that we are not joking here. I will be trading real on this thread, and making calls that will defy the general .... Stay with me. Till then I say "Thank you" to all of you. All the key contributors, too many to name but .... Burnsss vlady1974 Neio LiquidGenius (http://www.forexfactory.com/liquidgenius) fx-jay shiva (http://www.forexfactory.com/shiva) Ralome (http://www.forexfactory.com/ralome)...
Thank you for your great ideas and generous heart, Eurusdd Do not worry, we all will be here if you come back again next time ....

Quoting FX-Jay
Before getting too excited, I think it's only fair to show you the other side of the picture. I hope the below example shows you why this is far from being a Holy Grail & that it doesn't work by itself. For those who don't see it clearly, in this example if you wanted to take it as it is, you would have risked a DD of 60 pips for the sake of a 5 pip scalp, and then end up leaving the trade with a confirmed -50 pip. It sucks doesn't it? That's why I don't use this technique, and I warned you not to party too hard {image}
Thank you very much Jay,
This is really a wonderful picture. I like this picture, especially if we are using Freefox's indicator. There are some Even Zone and some uneven zones, that make the price become transient. If there is no zone, then it is faster to reach our goal, else then it is the Difference, we need time, but surely it will go there some day ....... it will be recurrent.
  • #11,399
  • Nov 1, 2014 1:28am Nov 1, 2014 1:28am
Quoting ephisi
I have been away developing TZ swings. My own application of the TZ principle. Expecting to see 1.2730ish. if 1.2730ish acts as resistance then a possible return to 1.2520 ish is imminent. But if 1.2730 failsand the upper trendline on the 4hr channel fails we will see 1.2806. will post more levels as the days go by
I am fully agree mate, i just open my MT4 platform and see that your calls are near my zones. I love Eurusdd's concepts, they are really great. You are using TZ swings, and i am combining Eurusdd's Ideas. Look the result we have, they are really near each other !!! Eurusdd is really a genius trader. Many thanks for his great concepts

And thanks for your call mate, i know what to do next week

Edit:
Just think again, may be it will go down first to around 1.250xx before going up ?? May be ..., but still do not have any signal to prove it technically ...
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Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #11,400
  • Nov 1, 2014 1:44am Nov 1, 2014 1:44am
Quoting pedma
{quote} I am fully agree mate, i just open my MT4 platform and see that your calls are near my zones. I love Eurusdd's concepts, they are really great. You are using TZ swings, and i am combining Eurusdd's Ideas. Look the result we have, they are really near each other !!! Eurusdd is really a genius trader. Many thanks for his great concepts And thanks for your call mate, i know what to do next week Edit: Just think again, may be it will go down first to around 1.250xx before going up ?? May be ..., but still do not have any signal...
One of the best 'Halloween theme chart' good job my friend... let me add some background...

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