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USD/RUB

  • #141
  • Oct 30, 2014 7:42am Oct 30, 2014 7:42am
Huge move, beautiful drop, reducing position size (taking profits on later orders) and will add if it goes back up over 43. What a pleasant surprise today!
  • #142
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:43am Oct 30, 2014 9:43am
I like this day need x4 same and all is good

What time the meeting RCB tomorrow please ?
  • #143
  • Oct 30, 2014 4:09pm Oct 30, 2014 4:09pm
Wow, quite the drop really ... .

Bloomberg seems to suggest that the strengthening is merely an anticipatory move by traders in advance of Friday's RCB rate decision. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...8-billion.html

The announcement is supposed to occur at 1:30 p.m. (I am assuming Moscow time). http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...eeds-inflation
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #144
  • Oct 31, 2014 4:04am Oct 31, 2014 4:04am
Not much a reaction to that rate increase to 9.5% ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #145
  • Oct 31, 2014 5:47am Oct 31, 2014 5:47am
With new rate always high ... price manipulation continue...
  • #146
  • Oct 31, 2014 2:40pm Oct 31, 2014 2:40pm
It looks like massive manipulation going on with this pair and CBR will start reviewing past trades to figure out what is going on. See google translation of the article about upcoming investigation of the suspicious trades on USDRUB http://top.rbc.ru/economics/31/10/20...18a9b#xtor=AL-[internal_traffic]--[rbc.ru]-[main_body]-[item_2]

My assumption is that the RUB can recover a part of the losses if those manipulators reduce their short bets due to CBR's investigation and high cost of the carry trade. Didnt put any SL yet due to crazy volatility.
  • #147
  • Oct 31, 2014 2:50pm Oct 31, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting thadakman
Huge move, beautiful drop, reducing position size (taking profits on later orders) and will add if it goes back up over 43. What a pleasant surprise today!
Thankfully I closed some, was able to reload. This is crazy, at least we'll be picking up even more overnight swap now though as we wait.
  • #148
  • Oct 31, 2014 4:58pm Oct 31, 2014 4:58pm
Quoting gmax
It looks like massive manipulation going on with this pair and CBR will start reviewing past trades to figure out what is going on. See google translation of the article about upcoming investigation of the suspicious trades on USDRUB http://top.rbc.ru/economics/31/10/20...18a9b#xtor=AL-[internal_traffic]--[rbc.ru]-[main_body]-[item_2] My assumption is that the RUB can recover a part of the losses if those manipulators reduce their short bets due to CBR's investigation and high cost of the carry trade. Didnt put any...
It would not surprise me at all if there were certain actors who conspired to move price in one direction or the other on this pair in order to reap profits (for example, so-called "spoofing," after all, is somewhat easy to do).

The pair continues to defy somewhat conventional wisdom that an increase in interest rates = an increase in the value of the currency (which should send the pair down). Naturally, the government's concern should be that if an increase in interest rates (and not just any increase, but a fairly whopping 1.5% increase) will not stabilize the currency and they want to avoid depleting further cash reserves to prop the currency up, they have few tools left in the tool box to strengthen the Ruble and are turning to investigate whether something "hinky" is going on, since the interest rate hike had little effect on currency value. In my mind, a 1.5% increase in the interest rate should have set the USD/RUB tumbling a good deal more than it did and without the retracement it experienced today. So, what gives?

Bloomberg explains the lack of impact of the 1.5% rate hike as basically this: a lack of confidence in the currency. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...-on-ruble.html

I don't buy that, since the interest rate hike prompted the Ruble to dramatically pare declines, only to have its value weaken by 3.3% today, the biggest daily drop since 2011. So, it could be that this investigation into trade rigging or other price manipulation has some merit. On the other hand, it could be something far simpler: a group of traders who are of the opinion RUB's bear run isn't over.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #149
  • Nov 1, 2014 7:14am Nov 1, 2014 7:14am
Ruble has lost just 28% of its value against the USD I think we can expect 31-32% ..what if its plan... 1: U.S with USEmirates put russian down down to destroy Russian economy and RUB substituted with USD!.... 2: when Russia gonna be down they will have to sell some GOLD! 3: WAR?!?! best solution for Russia
  • #150
  • Nov 1, 2014 9:10am Nov 1, 2014 9:10am
Quoting johnnyla
Ruble has lost just 28% of its value against the USD I think we can expect 31-32% ..what if its plan... 1: U.S with USEmirates put russian down down to destroy Russian economy and RUB substituted with USD!.... 2: when Russia gonna be down they will have to sell some GOLD! 3: WAR?!?! best solution for Russia
Why do you think we should expect tp RUB go down 31-32% and not 50%? RUB is highly correlated to OIL and most of the pressure on RUB comes from 1) low oil prices and 2) political situation in Ukraine (read sanctions).
1) It seems that OIL reached its bottom at $80 because further price drop can significantly cut production from US shale oil and Canadian oil (30% of the US shale oil is uneconomical at price lower than $80). So from now on, OIL price can have much more probabilty of going higher than lower.
2) political situation is getting better after peace agreement and sanctions can expire in march 2015. So the situation is likely to improve than to deteriorate.

Two scenarios/ events that can put more down pressure on RUB in near-term:
1) - More sanctions or negative reaction from West if Russia recognizes elections in rebel part of Ukraine (nov 2) -- probability of such a recognition is low , i'd say about 25%. Most probably Russia will say that it respects the choice but will go short of official recognition.
2) - Adopting free exchange rate on RUB since Jan 2015, i am not sure if it will be a positive or negative factor. From one side, by removing fixed trading ranges CBR can intervent unpredictably and create more fear in short sellers/speculators. From other side, CBR can completely stop its interventions and let RUB depreciate.
  • #151
  • Nov 2, 2014 11:44am Nov 2, 2014 11:44am
Quoting gmax
{quote} Why do you think we should expect tp RUB go down 31-32% and not 50%? RUB is highly correlated to OIL and most of the pressure on RUB comes from 1) low oil prices and 2) political situation in Ukraine (read sanctions). 1) It seems that OIL reached its bottom at $80 because further price drop can significantly cut production from US shale oil and Canadian oil (30% of the US shale oil is uneconomical at price lower than $80). So from now on, OIL price can have much more probabilty of going higher than lower. 2) political situation is getting...
The thing is that we are in kind of uncharted territory here as far as price is concerned. What, after all, is the fair value of the ruble in this market in light of the complexity of the situation (oil prices, Western sanctions, transition to free float, RCB intervention policy). Hard to say ... .

But, for what it's worth (on the bid side):

1H 200 Period SMA: 41.955
4H 200 Period SMA: 40.133
Daily 200 Period SMA: 35.642
Weekly 200 Period SMA: 31.827

For the Fib Line drawn from the 11/27/13 low to the 10/30/14 high:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD:RUB Daily.jpg Size: 205 KB


... which doesn't really help me set my Take Profit either, unless, for example, it was around the .618 at 39.15 (?) (stabbing at stuff here; no evidence of a reversal yet, although the last two days of trading look like doji to me -- which are types of candlesticks not seen in the pair's upward move for a good long while (not getting my hopes up)).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #152
  • Nov 2, 2014 11:52am Nov 2, 2014 11:52am
Also, looking at the Daily Fibo posted above -- pair hasn't respected a single Fibo line since penetrating the .382, after which it blew through the .5, .618, and the .764. I understand the Fibo line high in the above-referenced chart is recently set, so I figured I'd also look at the Fibo line drawn from the 9/20/13 low to the 3/3/14 high just for kicks:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD:RUB D2.jpg Size: 236 KB


There was some brief hesitation at the 1.0 line, a little at the 1.272, but nothing much since then ... . So, not a great respector of Fib lines ... . Or, like I said, too much uncharted territory here.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #153
  • Nov 2, 2014 2:46pm Nov 2, 2014 2:46pm
Good until cancelled order to short should bid price strike 43.714.

Average Sell for Current Net Position: 40.361
Take Profit: 40.000

This is about the longest I've been a trade for quite some time. Initiated first position on 9/29 ... . Here we are a good month (and a healthy bit of swap later) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #154
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:18am Nov 3, 2014 8:18am
40 used to feel like a good top for this pair, seems like it'll likely be support now, good place to exit. Will start dumping my position at 41 and reload 42-44 for an eventual move back down to 40.
  • #155
  • Nov 3, 2014 12:18pm Nov 3, 2014 12:18pm
Even though this pair looks to be in extremes I still think this wave is only 50%-60% complete regarding price. But if we think of time left there is not much. USD will remain strong as long as commodities keeps failing. But The burst of this buble will be better
  • #156
  • Nov 3, 2014 12:49pm Nov 3, 2014 12:49pm
Consolidation around 43.5 today... tomorrow welcome 44
  • #157
  • Nov 3, 2014 3:28pm Nov 3, 2014 3:28pm
Short at 43.714 didn't execute today ... . Another day of swap for my current net position. However, I would like to get the break even price on the net position (currently 40.361) closer to the current price ... . Would make me feel cozier.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #158
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:32am Nov 4, 2014 7:32am
Trying to bring my average price up as well, added a position today at 43.7496; average price now 42.71. Would love to dump all at 41, will dump todays addition at 43 and my 43 adds at 42, then the rest at 41, as it keeps going higher I'm raising my overall dump price (changed to 41 from 40).
  • #159
  • Nov 4, 2014 7:46am Nov 4, 2014 7:46am
Quoting thadakman
Trying to bring my average price up as well, added a position today at 43.7496; average price now 42.71. Would love to dump all at 41, will dump todays addition at 43 and my 43 adds at 42, then the rest at 41, as it keeps going higher I'm raising my overall dump price (changed to 41 from 40).
43.714 short leg executed, so now my average price is 40.840. I'm going to leave my TP at 40.00 for now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #160
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:43am Nov 4, 2014 8:43am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} 43.714 short leg executed, so now my average price is 40.840. I'm going to leave my TP at 40.00 for now ... .
But just to give you an idea of how small my total position is, it's currently 1.70 x equity (quite small). With a long-term carry trade (that's how I view my position), it's kind of delicate balance between not going in too big and holding it long enough to take advantage of the stellar swap. This is actually one of those situations where I don't want to exit the position prematurely, especially if it's going to move substantially lower (not that I see that occurring with this pair in short order). That being said, I also don't want price for the net position to get so far away from current price that I can't bail out of the position at a good price, since I not only want to accrue positive swap, I also want to be profitable on the net position (excluding the swap).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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