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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #401
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:02am Oct 30, 2014 10:02am
Quoting Eurusdd
Good work VLADY1974! Keep it up!
Thanks Captain! I try my best. So much more to learn though! Look forward to December
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #402
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:25am Oct 30, 2014 10:25am
Quoting saver0
For those of who may still have trouble understanding how H and K play into this... take a look. Please note that I just did this as an example. Choose better H values and K values and you should be able to get 90%+ There are also other ways to do this as well. As long as it makes statistical sense and you can achieve high probability, then its good. {image}
Thanks saver0. great chart. one quick question - where are you implying that you take a trade - it cant be at the top/bottom of the central bar as in real time you can't know if that is top or bottom. are you suggesting taking trade on the close of that bar?

thanks
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #403
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:49am Oct 30, 2014 10:49am
Quoting stt
{quote} Thanks saver0. great chart. one quick question - where are you implying that you take a trade - it cant be at the top/bottom of the central bar as in real time you can't know if that is top or bottom. are you suggesting taking trade on the close of that bar? thanks
No, it has to be taken as soon as the zone above the k gets developed. This is pretty much like trading on the same bar. The trade should typically end at the close of the bar if you get your H and K right most of the time. But it can end within H bars as well.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #404
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:26pm Oct 30, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} No, it has to be taken as soon as the zone above the k gets developed. This is pretty much like trading on the same bar. The trade should typically end at the close of the bar if you get your H and K right most of the time. But it can end within H bars as well.
Thanks. that is one strategy. you are basically betting on reversion within the bar. if you do it indiscriminately, then your average sell price would be at mid point of bar high and k area (for top TZ). so price has to revert more than half that height of tz -k to make money. Of course you can combine it with other signals from lower timeframe but if we are looking for this to give us some edge, we should look at it on its own first and then in actual trading combine with other signals.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #405
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:30pm Oct 30, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting stt
{quote} Thanks. that is one strategy. you are basically betting on reversion within the bar. if you do it indiscriminately, then you average sell price would be at mid point of bar high and k area (for top TZ). so price has to revert more than half that size to make money. Of course you can combine it with other signals from lower timeframe but if we are looking for this to give us some edge, we should look at it on its own first and then in actual trading combine with other signals.
Yup, there are many ways to approach this. I'm doing it in a very different way from what I posted hehe
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #406
  • Edited 8:10pm Oct 30, 2014 7:04pm | Edited 8:10pm
Quoting saver0
For those of who may still have trouble understanding how H and K play into this... take a look. Please note that I just did this as an example. Choose better H values and K values and you should be able to get 90%+ There are also other ways to do this as well. As long as it makes statistical sense and you can achieve high probability, then its good. {image}
Ow, thank you very much mate . Now i know that +/- k must be used in different situation (not at same candle), depend on sell/buy opportunity. And we must prepare our selved for
"failed" signal, may be using stop loss, averaging/martingale can solve this. Thanks for nice post mate.
Similarity can change your life !
  • #407
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:17pm Oct 30, 2014 8:17pm
Quoting Kiads
{quote} it's not failed, Arnie will be back there, just a matter of 'time'.. lol. but 'time' is the most important aspect in our Money Management and Mentality Management.., 1% growth per day is spectacular if you can do that consistently, but 1% growth per year is a reason why your wife ask for 'divorce' ... MTH
ha ha, you are right mate.
Similarity can change your life !
  • #408
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:59pm Oct 30, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting jackprobe
{quote} Ow, thank you very much mate . Now i know that +/- k must be used in different situation (not at same candle), depend on sell/buy opportunity. And we must prepare our selved for "failed" signal, may be using stop loss, averaging/martingale can solve this. Thanks for nice post mate.

I have a different understanding. Let's look at some statements by Eurusdd.

"Now, if you get the h and k right, you will find that transient price-zone occur with very LOW -probability. That is PRICES are h-recurrent almost-surely for some positive h." (PRICES not BARS/CANDLES)


There is no center bar Only -h and +h (this EureKa literally just became aware to me as I write this so thanks for the question)



"If your h is right, this probability should be about 3%. That is 97% of the time, at least one of the next h bars should hit p." Eurusdd...

Now how do you avoid a 3% probable transient zone? You treat all potential TZs (k) as completed TZs and avoid them by taking revisit trades in the "almost sure" recurrent zones above ( +k ) or below ( -K ) the assumed completed TZ.
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  • #409
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:05pm Oct 30, 2014 10:05pm
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} I have a different understanding. Let's look at some statements by Eurusdd. "Now, if you get the h and k right, you will find that transient price-zone occur with very LOW -probability. That is PRICES are h-recurrent almost-surely for some positive h." (PRICES not BARS/CANDLES) There is no center bar Only -h and +h (this EureKa literally just became aware to me as I write this so thanks for the question) "If your h is right, this probability should be about 3%. That is 97% of the time, at least one of the next h bars should hit p." Eurusdd......
Spot on!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #410
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:06pm Oct 30, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} I have a different understanding. Let's look at some statements by Eurusdd. "Now, if you get the h and k right, you will find that transient price-zone occur with very LOW -probability. That is PRICES are h-recurrent almost-surely for some positive h." (PRICES not BARS/CANDLES) There is no center bar Only -h and +h (this EureKa literally just became aware to me as I write this so thanks for the question) "If your...
so you say we should trade the opposite?
  • #411
  • Oct 31, 2014 12:31am Oct 31, 2014 12:31am
I'm noob, and not a math guy
I just focus on 'what i can see' and 'I see' that mid zones is the most consistent in result.
there are 'real mid zones' and 'temporary mid zones'. h is filter, whatever h you choose the 'real mid zones' will still there, while 'temporary mid zones' will gone.
and h is not related with Time Frame for searching of 'real mid zones'.
for me 'simply' if we can trade it consistently then i'm done .. lol.

The Transient Zones Indicator from our friend FreeFox is a great tool to 'see' this real mid zones.

USDJPY M5 h3
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USDJPY M5 h96
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USDJPY M15 h3
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USDJPY M15 h96
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MTH
  • #412
  • Oct 31, 2014 1:14am Oct 31, 2014 1:14am
And when i 'see' this 'real mid zone'
i will do this

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY H1 h2 how to deal with mid TZ.png Size: 484 KB


but is not always like that.. so keep watching and work with your both MM..

Attached Image



Hope it help and best regards..
  • #413
  • Oct 31, 2014 5:50am Oct 31, 2014 5:50am
Quoting Kiads
And when i 'see' this 'real mid zone' i will do this {image} but is not always like that.. so keep watching and work with your both MM.. {image} Hope it help and best regards..
Kiads this is almost exactly what I do.
Who let the dogs out!

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #414
  • Oct 31, 2014 5:55am Oct 31, 2014 5:55am
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} I have a different understanding. Let's look at some statements by Eurusdd. "Now, if you get the h and k right, you will find that transient price-zone occur with very LOW -probability. That is PRICES are h-recurrent almost-surely for some positive h." (PRICES not BARS/CANDLES) There is no center bar Only -h and +h (this EureKa literally just became aware to me as I write this so thanks for the question) "If your h is right, this probability should be about 3%. That is 97% of the time, at least one of the next h bars should hit p." Eurusdd......
Never got to thank you mate.
Absolutely the best Contributor post on TZs.... probably equal footing with Jay's. Two sides of same coin.

When I read it... it was like.... but don't people get this already? It's why I keep going on about going into higher timeframes because there is "no spoon" in terms of time.... we created the illusion of the bar... so we must be aware that h cuts across the price range on multiple "manufactured" time dimensions. The question was raised yesterday and Savero answered it.... the higher timeframe was 1H but to trade it... could be 5M,15M, 30M...... and equally if you have a 4H timeframe... then you could trade it from 1M to 2H..... so much flexibility!!

It's also why I like EVEN TZ... especially when they happen in between UTZs.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #415
  • Oct 31, 2014 8:07am Oct 31, 2014 8:07am
Quoting saver0
For those of who may still have trouble understanding how H and K play into this... take a look. Please note that I just did this as an example. Choose better H values and K values and you should be able to get 90%+ There are also other ways to do this as well. As long as it makes statistical sense and you can achieve high probability, then its good. EDIT: By the way, this is not what EURUSDD said. I just figured this out last night. I will update later with what EURUSDD told us. But with this, you can still get good probability. I have...
I just edited this post.. Not to mislead anybody.
EDIT: By the way, this is not what EURUSDD said. I just figured this out last night. I will update later with what EURUSDD instructed us to do. But with this, you can still get good probability. I have tested it. I have test 2 variations of H/K. They both produced good results. FX-Jay for example is trading my original variation (different from EURUSDD's). So there are many ways to do this.

To let you know quickly. It is not the RZs that we are interested in, it is potential TZs!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #416
  • Oct 31, 2014 8:16am Oct 31, 2014 8:16am
Quoting saver0
{quote} I just edited this post.. Not to mislead anybody. EDIT: By the way, this is not what EURUSDD said. I just figured this out last night. I will update later with what EURUSDD instructed us to do. But with this, you can still get good probability. I have tested it. I have test 2 variations of H/K. They both produced good results. FX-Jay for example is trading my original variation (different from EURUSDD's). So there are many ways to do this. To let you know quickly. It is not the RZs that we are interested in, it is confirmed TZs!
Yes!

And since alot of cats and dogs are out of their respective bags and houses....for those that are not clear.
"Confirmed" means that the h value has passed.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #417
  • Oct 31, 2014 8:27am Oct 31, 2014 8:27am
Quoting saver0
{quote} it is potential TZs!
Exactly!
  • #418
  • Oct 31, 2014 8:33am Oct 31, 2014 8:33am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Yes! And since alot of cats and dogs are out of their respective bags and houses....for those that are not clear. "Confirmed" means that the h value has passed.
Just noticed that Savero corrected his post from the one I quoted. But it actually doesn't matter too much. You can treat a potential TZ as if it was a confirmed TZ.

Edit: Just my thoughts on this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #419
  • Edited 11:53am Oct 31, 2014 11:42am | Edited 11:53am
Thankx for the enlighting posts of late – you people ROCK

Eurusdd

vlady1974

#####....Kiads....#####

Rahimseven
saver0
There has never been a statue erected in honor of a critic
  • #420
  • Nov 2, 2014 12:49am Nov 2, 2014 12:49am
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} I have a different understanding. Let's look at some statements by Eurusdd. "Now, if you get the h and k right, you will find that transient price-zone occur with very LOW -probability. That is PRICES are h-recurrent almost-surely for some positive h." (PRICES not BARS/CANDLES) There is no center bar Only -h and +h (this EureKa literally just became aware to me as I write this so thanks...
thnx for sharing your insight you made me see what i did not see since similarty started 👍😆
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