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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,461
  • Edited Oct 29, 2014 7:57am Oct 28, 2014 12:17pm | Edited Oct 29, 2014 7:57am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Read your chart. Can you help me with post 28456, 28457 and 28458 please. Thanks

Sure it is better to wait for the pull back, move away. You are better to miss a good trade than being in a bad trade, just like I was today!
But also reading the news could help take decision about the market, because of increased volatility in the market:
Market is having FOMC statement tomorrow at 2 pm. It is very important, and the best place to be is on the side line until the result is well known…At the least, I am. Volatility should be at that meeting too…

I’ll get back to you later about what you are asking me, I am gone now, sorry I have things to do for now.
<

---------

There is my view:
Again here with the NZDUSD, the market looks like a “freeze” situation, as well as pairs closely related to USD and beyond, are putting themselves in neutral gear, waiting for the result of the FOMC today at 14:00hrs local. That pair is standing right in the middle of a channel. Which way?

AUDNZD: the picture here is that pair is touching the upper border of the daily channel. It could be considered as a barrier, than waiting for a break, pull back and move away or a move back down inside the daily triangle would be wise.

As for the EURUSD:
The real floor is on the monthly chart which is at 1.2290 or so, but where the pair is standing now there is a barrier, so price is standing right there now. FOMC should give the drive to bounce or break it. Many traders, I guess, are waiting for the result. My personal view would be to wait after the FOMC for a clear direction. And at the same time, the pairs you mentioned will also unlock that “freeze” state.

For about 6 months the USD is going north, if the FOMC result gets favourable to the USD, there will be probably just a continuation down with the same beat ( EURUSD as example), no course changing, just like going to work every day as usual. But if it is the contrary, rather not favourable, then my guess is that strength given to other currency by the sudden weakness of the dollar, could be responding with force and could be expressed by strong candles against the USD. The crowd will change pole. If you look at the EURUSD monthly chart it is quite evident that we're getting close to a main support caused by main fundamentals and FOMC plays in the same fields.
But it is just my view.
Yvon
  • #28,462
  • Edited 2:15pm Oct 29, 2014 1:14pm | Edited 2:15pm
after the fomc:

EURUSD: price is standing right at the neck line. If it breaks I expect another strong candle down

There is a tentative break of the neckline, will see... uf it does, 1.2400 is reacheble.(my view)

the NZDUSD : strong move down, wouldn't be surprised if it reaches 0.73500 but not today!

EURUSD: about 56 pips secured. nice strong candle on the daily chart.
I was late to get one more trade in it, but free trade now
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Yvon
  • #28,463
  • Oct 30, 2014 7:21am Oct 30, 2014 7:21am
Just after some comments from people that have been trading this system. We are instructed to trade in the direction of the 200MA, as a bit of a filter. Have you found this to be beneficial if so which time frames are you using when filtering trades based on 200MA.
I'm looking to entry trades on 4 Hour chart (as I work full time) so considering entering trades only in the direction of the 200MA, however not sure if I should use 1HR, 4HR or Daily chart. What have you found helpful, or learnt? Much appreciated!
  • #28,464
  • Oct 30, 2014 11:20am Oct 30, 2014 11:20am
Quoting timster
Just after some comments from people that have been trading this system. We are instructed to trade in the direction of the 200MA, as a bit of a filter. Have you found this to be beneficial if so which time frames are you using when filtering trades based on 200MA. I'm looking to entry trades on 4 Hour chart (as I work full time) so considering entering trades only in the direction of the 200MA, however not sure if I should use 1HR, 4HR or Daily chart. What have you found helpful, or learnt? Much appreciated!

hi timster,
The 4hrs macd strategy is on the 4hrs Time Frame, this is your map on which you travel for your profit. Consider all that is in there as reliable for making your plan and decisions.
If you zoom out ( by going to the daily chart) you will see the main direction of the market while by zooming in (going to the 1hr chart) you could “fine tuning” your entry that you found on the 4hrs chart.
Suggestion is to experiment first on a demo account. observe the rhythm of the market

"considering entering trades only in the direction of the 200MA":because the trend is your friend, suggestion :look to trade TC (Trend Continuation)

have a nice day,
Yvon
  • #28,465
  • Edited Oct 31, 2014 8:32am Oct 30, 2014 11:52am | Edited Oct 31, 2014 8:32am
EURUSD::
I surely wasn’t expecting that huge response from the FOMC: the price went right through the neck line. But turn around about 20 pips shy of my TP.( I woke up late this morning to maximise the gain)Now the pair is testing a pull back to the resistance (neck line), hitting my SL (too close to action, again!). SL should have been above the 21ema( blue )…Now waiting for a turn around , making a TC at the same time… gain on this closed trade aprox 75 pips.

EDIT' it did turned around and did made a TC, got short where the red arrows are (on the second chart) and closed the trades where the white arrows are. + 85 pips gain. and about 100 pips on the other platform, at about the same entry and exit,
...there is still some more move down, my view.
have a nice weekend,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 141030EURUSD-1 closed trade.png Size: 110 KB
Yvon
  • #28,466
  • Oct 30, 2014 8:26pm Oct 30, 2014 8:26pm
YVON
Re post 28465.
Sorry but I need to ask this as I couldn't quite figure out, where was your entry, I mean price and at which candle? Thanks ans thanks for post 28461.
  • #28,467
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:57pm Oct 30, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting nic73
YVON Re post 28465. Sorry but I need to ask this as I couldn't quite figure out, where was your entry, I mean price and at which candle? Thanks ans thanks for post 28461.
Hey Nic, nice to hear from you again,

On that 4hrs chart(on post 28465) the two little red arrows( on that strong red candle) are where I took those trades. It is the same trade, except I was a bit late getting to the second entry, due to high volatility caused by the FOMC news. The platform rejected the value I asked to be filled about 2 or 3 times minimum, because I asked for fixed price, no + or – some pips (It kept me waiting for answer while the price was falling, but I got filled at the second red arrow. But I manage to get one entry (the first red arrow) at a decent price from the FOMC making about 105 pips, while the very late entry gave about 51 pips, where the average give about 75 pips.
I mentioned also “neck line” and yes I am one of those who are watching those figures.
Indeed, in a sense, I was inclined to go short, but having a fast answer from FOMC, and being so a decisive answer, I took shorts just a bit more confident than usual. The divergence between the 2 shoulders supported that idea. I knew also that even by taking “late” the second entry, gains could still be made due to projection target.
If I go by RT, there was also a divergence on that RT expressed by the macd, you can see it. If it doesn’t seem to be clear, just go to the 1 hr chart, the divergence is clear.

Again, another support for taking that trade, and I knew I had to react on it. I usually don’t trade on “news”, and it is not something I am looking at for trading. But as soon as I knew the positive answer from FOMC, and the candle shows some consistant red there, I took the trade, thanks to FF to deliver the news. Usually I wait for the trader’s reactions to the news, that way I don’t have to figure it out in advance.
The exit or where I took profit were at the white arrow, same place for both trades.

As mentioned, I expected a pull back to neck line and it seems that price tends to go back down now, then, it should look as a TC on the macd, sure I am still bearish on that pair, but will see…
Yvon
  • #28,468
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:22am Oct 31, 2014 3:22am
Hi everyone!

Good to see lots of posts and info flowing in the forum.
I am blessed to be here.
I have been working on my computer.
The most likely virus attack was heavy. I have formatted already and still have lot of work to do (synchronizing infos)
I can now see almost all the charts I posted previously which I could not see because of the issue with my PC.

I missed the trade yesterday on EURUSD as I was in same direction on the GOLD/USD (XAU/USD) pair.
I also took the USD/JPY pair, a trade that played out for about 2+ days. Huge pips in the market for those two pairs.

God bless!
  • #28,469
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:34am Oct 31, 2014 3:34am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} I can read your posts and see your charts perfectly...no problem. If you are on a microsoft pc...the easiest and free way to clean check your computer is with ccleaner. malwarebytes. avira for a free antivirus program..can use on your android phone/tablet too... I'm not trying to start a debate about antivires etc...just giving my advice/help from experience.
Thanks folk;
I have installed the Malwarebytes software you recommended. Though still a new user, I think I love it.
Thanks for the help!
...reading your posts...good luck to you.
  • #28,470
  • Nov 1, 2014 12:13pm Nov 1, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting nic73
YVON Re post 28465. Sorry but I need to ask this as I couldn't quite figure out, where was your entry, I mean price and at which candle? Thanks ans thanks for post 28461.
I still had the impression that I wasn't clear enough so there it is :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 141029EURUSD-4.png Size: 112 KB
Yvon
  • #28,471
  • Nov 3, 2014 1:47am Nov 3, 2014 1:47am
Quoting naustingfx
Hi everyone! Good to see lots of posts and info flowing in the forum. I am blessed to be here. I have been working on my computer. The most likely virus attack was heavy. I have formatted already and still have lot of work to do (synchronizing infos) I can now see almost all the charts I posted previously which I could not see because of the issue with my PC. I missed the trade yesterday on EURUSD as I was in same direction on the GOLD/USD (XAU/USD) pair. I also took the USD/JPY pair, a trade that played out for about 2+ days. Huge pips in the market...

Hi,

3 more ways to protect your windows pc for free and these are easy too do.

1) https://support.opendns.com/entries/38001040-Windows-7

(it works on all microsoft windows, the above are easy to follow instructions.)

2) easy and to protect your computer against virus attacks.
make a new administrator account and then change your administrator account to standard level and then use this one...any viruses cannot open and change things as you need to authorise them with that pop up window. see here for easy to follow instructions.

http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/w...#1TC=windows-7
http://www.sevenforums.com/tutorials...pe-change.html


3)Also unistall adobe flash...(everything still works but you need to authorise things...you will hardly notice it has gone...Apple will not use adobe flash because of the security issues..

These are free and tried and tested methods to offer more protection against virus...of course no guarantees..

good luck....
  • #28,472
  • Nov 3, 2014 2:45am Nov 3, 2014 2:45am
AUDNZD:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD_H4_3_Nov_2014_Analysis.png Size: 28 KB


As usual I am also watching EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDNZD and GBPUSD. I think that are going to pull back to 21ema on H4.

What do you guys think? (BTW, are there any ladies traders? It appears to me there is none. Wonder why if that is true. Just curious.) And what do you guys have in mind for trading this week? Does the market need time to let the dust settle, is volatility over yet?

Nicholas
  • #28,473
  • Nov 3, 2014 9:21am Nov 3, 2014 9:21am
Yvon, re: post 28467

This is the work of an advance trader, difficult to understand for me. I see that to entered early because you did not wait for the next candle. Did you use the lower TF i.e. 15min, 30 min etc? But it's a nice trade with lots of pips there. I would not have taken this trade, it's just a it too advance.
  • #28,474
  • Nov 3, 2014 11:00am Nov 3, 2014 11:00am
Quoting nic73
Yvon, re: post 28467 This is the work of an advance trader, difficult to understand for me. I see that to entered early because you did not wait for the next candle. Did you use the lower TF i.e. 15min, 30 min etc? But it's a nice trade with lots of pips there. I would not have taken this trade, it's just a it too advance.
hi Nic,
that trade was a combination of things that added together helps find a trade if there is any:
FOMC was expected to move a lot if the result would have been for other currency than USD, and moderate action if favorable to USD, well that was my view.But in any case I was expecting a move,a strong candle there. I was ready to close that trade in case of a reverse of result (I mean market going up instead of going down) So there was an opportunity here to trigger a trade if an RT, or a formation that could help a trade there. I found a HS there and I was glad since there was the third RT or the right shoulder in the making. So there was the HS! Was there something else that would support a bit more for a trade there? Yes I found a divergence on the macd concerning the right shoulder. So up to now there was a very good support for a trade. What was the R/R on this possible trade? big enough to risk on this: HS has a big head range, this is why I took that trade. I took the opportunity of this possible anticipation for the market to go down.

I just used the 1hr chart to see the divergence on the right shoulder,that was visible on the 4hrs chart.
Yvon
  • #28,475
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:29pm Nov 5, 2014 7:29pm
GBPUSD:

Please comment you insight on this pair, for sell. Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,476
  • Nov 7, 2014 8:10am Nov 7, 2014 8:10am
hi

something came to my mind and as usual, wanted an analogy here.


I remember my mother, quite a while ago, hanging out the washing on the clothes line outside. I see clearly the picture in my mind:I was playing with my toys in the sand and by just raising my head I could see around at the sunshine early morning announcing a warm day, a mild wind waving gently the clothes hanging there on that long clothes line, not too loaded in weight though but enough to fill the line. I never saw clothes there in a rainy day, or on a “no wind” day with the absence of the sun. maybe it started by being a flat day, but my mother “knew” that it would be a nice day just a bit later during the day. She knew when to wash our clothes. Sure she had bad days, but on the long run, she did very well!
Maybe we could compare that with a trading day.
The properly loaded line / not risking more than we can afford
The mild wind/ the chart having a nice rhythm, no big news "shaking" the day.
The sunny day/ trading with the trend
The “no wind day”/ market having a consolidation in process
“My mother knew” / anticipating the market.
thanks mom
Yvon
  • #28,477
  • Nov 10, 2014 12:37am Nov 10, 2014 12:37am
We need to avoid these market phases at all cost
Inserted Video
  • #28,478
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:37am Nov 12, 2014 1:37am
AUDNZD

Sold this and caught a 47pips gain. Thought I should share this is allow for some comments, want to know if my analysis was alright and sound. And not making profit out of luck. Please leave your feedback and insight on this. Thank you.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,479
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:22am Nov 12, 2014 2:22am
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  • #28,480
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:09am Nov 12, 2014 5:09am
Quoting yaakruay
{image}
I took the same trade and got taken out. My stop loss was slightly below 21ema. It was red news, and think that's why. How did you do with your, Richard?

Nicholas
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