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AUD/USD

  • #86,121
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:02pm Oct 29, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} New high meant nothing. It was a month high, but not much more than that. Today's move nullifies any sign that market movers are bullish. They don't want anything to do with Aussie dollar. The way it sold off today illustrates how overvalued the Aussie is versus the US dollar. Weekly chart tells the story.


You sound a little nervous.
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  • #86,122
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:11pm Oct 29, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} You sound a little nervous. {image}
When you trade as long as I have been you don't get nervous.
  • #86,123
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:18pm Oct 29, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} When you trade as long as I have been you don't get nervous.
Having traded so long, you probably know then, you really don't know what the price is going to do. I think you may have pointed this out to someone already on this thread if I remember correctly.

I was only pointing out what it has been doing and there's really no evidence that it is going to start doing something a whole lot different... yet.

It could bounce around in this range for the next 2 years. up and down up and down up and down 200-400 pips each way. It's gone 200 pips in both directions the past month. So, I'm not sure why a 200 pip move is anything to get excited about long term. When it finally breaks out of the range it's in, if it ever does, then maybe something to get excited about, assuming it goes in your direction...
  • #86,124
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:31pm Oct 29, 2014 8:31pm
People get excited when it makes a big move and start calling bullish/bearish numbers. What I don't get is people getting all worked up about something some guy posts or starts laughing at people losing money.
  • #86,125
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:36pm Oct 29, 2014 8:36pm
Quoting jayjb
People get excited when it makes a big move and start calling bullish/bearish numbers. What I don't get is people getting all worked up about something some guy posts or starts laughing at people losing money.
I agree. My laughing was at the comment in a post calling today's move a "beautiful move". And celebrating about it. I was not laughing about anyone losing money.

In my comment I expressed hope that traders got out before the drop if they were bullish, in case you missed that part.

Also, I'm not worked up about anything, if your comment was directed at me. I'm not sure who you are talking about.
  • #86,126
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:42pm Oct 29, 2014 8:42pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Having traded so long, you probably know then, you really don't know what the price is going to do. I think you may have pointed this out to someone already on this thread if I remember correctly. I was only pointing out what it has been doing and there's really no evidence that it is going to start doing something a whole lot different... yet. It could bounce around in this range for the next 2 years. up and down up and down up and down 200-400 pips each way. It's gone 200 pips in both directions the past month. So, I'm not sure why a 200...
On a day to day basis it can be unpredictable. However in certain circumstances it is predictable enough to trade. Then you need to know how to trade. Trading is not for most people.
  • #86,127
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:47pm Oct 29, 2014 8:47pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} On a day to day basis it can be unpredictable. However in certain circumstances it is predictable enough to trade. Then you need to know how to trade. Trading is not for most people.
I find it much easier to predict what the price will do on an intra-day basis, or even over several days. I can see this pair is ranging, and I can clearly see the boundaries. I stopped trading it when it started breaking the boundaries.

The boundaries are clear again after it got slammed at the top. So, I'd be tempted to come back and look for the bullish reversal. They are not hard to identify intra-day.

Also, some people can't trade intra-day. It's not for everyone
  • #86,128
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:59pm Oct 29, 2014 8:59pm
sup guys ...... 85xx ???
  • #86,129
  • Oct 29, 2014 9:00pm Oct 29, 2014 9:00pm
I love yellow pages ads that say "TWENTY FIVE YEARS EXPERIENCE!!"

Know what I call and ask just for the fun of ti some times?

What if it was bad experience?
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #86,130
  • Oct 29, 2014 9:23pm Oct 29, 2014 9:23pm
Quoting PoundTrader
{quote}
its coming
  • #86,131
  • Oct 29, 2014 9:50pm Oct 29, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I agree. My laughing was at the comment in a post calling today's move a "beautiful move". And celebrating about it. I was not laughing about anyone losing money. In my comment I expressed hope that traders got out before the drop if they were bullish, in case you missed that part. Also, I'm not worked up about anything, if your comment was directed at me. I'm not sure who you are talking about.
Nah, wasn't directed at you. Just an observation.I do appreciate numbers posted, helps me to spot S/R areas and trendlines. Best tool for trading, for me at least.
  • #86,132
  • Oct 29, 2014 10:06pm Oct 29, 2014 10:06pm
Today is start of a new day in the crazy insane market place that is FX. We had a pretty bullish statement come out from the FED signaling its end to it QE3 stimulus package and next big ticket is the interest rate hike for curbing inflation. Until this number actually comes out market is going to try and price in as much as it can especially on high yield pairs like the NZDUSD and AUDUSD.

Right now we just taking a breather in consoldation after big push from yesterday. Markets still trying to digest everything and prepare for more USD volatility. This is just the start of what yet can still be to come! Later today US session we have some key events that I will be watching for.

Finally we will see if AUD has anything left near the end with the PPI number(expected good).

Been a great week so far hope everyone is raking in the pips!
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #86,133
  • Oct 29, 2014 10:41pm Oct 29, 2014 10:41pm
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} Are you suggesting that this forum is only for members who do sell?
Don't get me wrong mate, this forum is definitely for all traders regardless of exp and trading style.

Everyone is entitle to their own personal opinions.

Good trading week to you!
  • #86,134
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:11pm Oct 29, 2014 11:11pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I find it much easier to predict what the price will do on an intra-day basis, or even over several days. I can see this pair is ranging, and I can clearly see the boundaries. I stopped trading it when it started breaking the boundaries. The boundaries are clear again after it got slammed at the top. So, I'd be tempted to come back and look for the bullish reversal. They are not hard to identify intra-day. Also, some people can't trade intra-day. It's not for everyone
If you found something that works for you that is great. I personally find intra-day trading to be too high cost and too much risk for the reward - especially if you are trading on leverage. I came to my conclusion using math and like the ole saying goes... numbers don't lie. It also seems you rely wholly on technicals. Not saying there is anything wrong with that, but again, too risky for my taste.
  • #86,135
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:21pm Oct 29, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting Rtm
We had a pretty bullish statement come out from the FED signaling its end to it QE3 stimulus package and next big ticket is the interest rate hike for curbing inflation. Until this number actually comes out market is going to try and price in as much as it can especially on high yield pairs like the NZDUSD and AUDUSD.
This.

Also equity market has been on a good run. Some might call it a bubble. Look at 5 year Dow chart.
  • #86,136
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:22pm Oct 29, 2014 11:22pm
I would look for a bounce around 8681ish area, give or take 20 pips or so. Of course other areas could offer a bounce as well, it just seems more likely at this level, as key horizontal S/R level meets the bottom of the channel up trend line around that area.

Would have to fall hard and heavy below 86 for me to expect downtrend continuation.

Guess we'll find out soon enough...
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  • #86,137
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:23pm Oct 29, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} This. Also equity market has been on a good run. Some might call it a bubble. Look at 5 year Dow chart.
Well look at interest rates! They have been low for so long, no doubt a good run for stock market. It will slow down though dont worry nothing goes on forever.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #86,138
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:27pm Oct 29, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting benaiah
I would look for a bounce around 8681ish area, give or take 20 pips or so. Of course other areas could offer a bounce as well, it just seems more likely at this level, as key horizontal S/R level meets the bottom of the channel up trend line around that area. Would have to fall hard and heavy below 86 for me to expect downtrend continuation. Guess we'll find out soon enough... {image}
And just so no misunderstanding, I would wait for evidence in the price action, that it is going to bounce, not just assume it will at some point...
  • #86,139
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:34pm Oct 29, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} If you found something that works for you that is great. I personally find intra-day trading to be too high cost and too much risk for the reward - especially if you are trading on leverage. I came to my conclusion using math and like the ole saying goes... numbers don't lie. It also seems you rely wholly on technicals. Not saying there is anything wrong with that, but again, too risky for my taste.
We have completely different styles of trading, obviously. That's okay. And who knows, maybe someday, I'll ask you for a tip on going long-term on a trade...
  • #86,140
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:36pm Oct 29, 2014 11:36pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} If you found something that works for you that is great. I personally find intra-day trading to be too high cost and too much risk for the reward - especially if you are trading on leverage. I came to my conclusion using math and like the ole saying goes... numbers don't lie. It also seems you rely wholly on technicals. Not saying there is anything wrong with that, but again, too risky for my taste.
Also, what probably got buried somewhere along the way in our discussions, I do actually agree with you on AUDUSD going lower. I just don't see evidence that it's ready to go lower yet. Guess we'll find out....
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