Disliked{quote} one should just simply measure in the past the relative frequency of what is now going on. to do this, you find the number of same situation N in the past, and measure the number of times it was a certain type of outcome, say N1, and calculate the relative frequency of this to be f=N1/N. Than you say that if there is a sufficient number of situations where this outcome has happened, you have your probability p=h. this is all you need to do. in your case you would be looking at all the "potential" h-transient zones in the past, and let us...Ignored

The truth is real! How you apply it is another matter.