Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

HUH? You mean cheat, rob, and deceive everyone you do business with and when your caught pay a fine or go to jail? Sounds like the Berny Maddoff investment plan to me.

I do plan to hold this trade...it is just frustration and tests my patience when price acts like this. I think it is helped along by the retail brokers as well...it is frustrating to see the trade come so close to your target then back away and possibly fall back to the stop.

As always I will stick to the plan, which means my stop stays put as does my limit...

I know almost nothing about options so I could not say. I have always had issues with the time element in options. Time is a variable in the markets, along with everything else, and I do not believe I have a strong enough grasp of the time variable to be able to be consistent in options trading.

With spot or futures trading, I can hold a trade as long as I like with no issue of expiration, and let the market take its course.

update on USD/JPY

There is a clear range intraday forming at the current price seen below, and from the daily chart perspective, this is starting to look suspiciously like a lower high. The stop on this trade is in profit just above break even, but the weekly trade is still at risk. I am thinking of giving this a couple of more days for a break to the upside. That should include the next US Fed announcement. If we haven't punched through by then I may move stops in closer to save as much of the position as possible.

update USD/CAD

Price has dropped out the bottom with out triggering the long...so this trade has been cancelled.

i love the simple rules and the tress free of your system...subscribed and putting it to work. I also have some things that work and i think in combination with what you have here i ll pull it through. if it is so i ll let everyone know. For now i m just going to focus on this to master it first.
thanks for sharing gs

Thank you for your kind words storm trader...I wouldn't call it "stress free" however. My USD/JPY is causing me lots of anxt while it teases my take profit.

New Trade Opportunity:

XAU/USD (gold):

Although I am already long on this pair from a weekly stand point, I wanted to alert you to another trade (much smaller) on the daily chart that I found while reviewing the dailies.

Trend: Price has created a higher high and retraced to the 38.2% fibo line dipping just below it over the last two days. This area also appears to be a "logical" support area from the last range that occurred just prior to the last rally. I am anticipating that this low forms the first in a series of higher lows.

Signal: Price's action today formed a lower low than the prior bar and a higher high than the prior bar. Normally that would constitute an engulfing bar, but this bar didn't finish in the upper 30% of the day. However it did finish above the 1/2 way point of the prior bar's "real body", qualifying it as a Piercing Line. I have had a very high percent of these signals succeed if they trigger...(>85%)

I have placed a buy order above the high of today's bar and if triggered, will initiate a stop below the low. Take profit us just below the last high. We'll see if we get triggered withing the next couple of days...

Nice setup. I like it.

We'll just have to see...market has decided to range lately, I would imagine because of the Fed announcement coming in tomorrow....that may change many things.

Last weeks bullish outlook on the UCAD has turned bearish rather quickly. Since my buy order was placed as a stop it kept me out of a bad trade. I tend to remain flexible & read & react. One of the oldest & more probable setups in technical analysis is when Old Support turns New Resistance. It's really kinda day one stuff

gspajon likes to see Lower Lows & Lower Highs as validation. He also likes High Probability setups. This setup could provide both.

1.1200 has represented clear resistance & support over the past few months. It has most recently provided support & held up for the past couple of weeks until today. This level has clearly broken. A Daily candle has closed well below the level.

Barring predictions this level will almost certainly attract price again. We have the lower low & Price running back up to 1.12 again would provide our Lower High. From there I wait for a lower TF setup or signal on the 4HR or below to enter on a stop with protective stops above the most recent high.

There should be clear daylight below for the trade to at least run to 1.1100..... IF all the above unfolds in a similar confirmatory manner.... Otherwise no trade....

Also keep in mind FED Speak tomorrow at 2PM EST. They're kind of a big deal... lol.

Eggs...I agree with your assessment 100%. I am liking the series of lower highs and lower lows on your chart. The only different thing I think I would do is watch for a signal at the support (turned resistance) line, where as I think you sound like you will just place your pending order there and wait for it to strike...

I cannot fault that at all. as can clearly be seen, there is plenty of room for at least a 3xR trade.

Thanks man. I figured you'd dig the setup. IF... IF it turns out to be a setup.

And to answer your question I will most certainly not be blindly placing a 'pending' order around the level. As outlined above I will be watching the level closely over the next 24 on lower TF candles such as the 4HR or 1HR. Then & Only then will I enter the trade on a Stop.

You are a machine!! I used to be able to do that...but found I need sleep Other wise I end up trading really badly...

Not at all sir. That's the beauty with longer TF's. There's really nothing to miss. & If I do miss anything there's always another train leaving the station. More times than not you'll be glad you missed it.

& As a rule I almost always enter the market using a STOP order. Not a LIMIT order. It's just part of my rules of engagement.

The kind of thinking you're trying to cultivate here is ultimately where all of us as traders need to be. Your methods call for multiple levels of confirmation all the way down to entry. Sometimes price can & should be the ultimate confirmation. Enter the market on a STOP. Allow price to move 'through' your order. If & When it goes the other way you won't be caught on the other side.

I would even venture to say it's the one thing that could turn a traders Win Loss ratio in the right direction.

If anyone else is looking for almost completely one sided bullish price action.... look no further.

Morning all;

Today is FOMC day and the market has gone "ghostly" quiet. Clearly the announcement to come will have some volatility associated with it. After thinking about this for quite some time, I've decided to move my stop in tight to lock in profit on the daily trade and exactly break even on the weekly trade.

This is usually a bad idea because the volatility often stops me out prematurely before moving my direction. However, I had used the following justification:

1. 4 days in a row, price has come within 20 pips of my limit order and not pushed through
2. Price is looking suspiciously like it is forming a lower high (bearish sentiment building?)
3. I have the chance NOW to keep some profits and prevent a loss

Considering that the Fed is widely expected to end QE3 and that (logically speaking) might prove bearish for the USD, I'm thinking a spike higher might be in order before the eventual downward plung...that would take my limit and give some profit. However, what most likely happens is a spike in both directions, taking out everyone then the move. I've decided to "play it safe".

We'll see what happens.

Update on XAU/USD:

Price is dropping below the low of yesterday's candle in advance of the FOMC meeting. Often in the past, gold leads the way in direction before the announcement. This trade has not yet triggered, so I have cancelled it.

I still have another buy limit order pending just below here that was placed two weeks ago on the weekly chart. It looks like that will trigger today or tomorrow. After that we shall see.

I caught it just before we hit the limit....YEAH!! a winner and the remaining position is at break even...