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The similarity system

  • #11,121
  • Oct 28, 2014 9:48am Oct 28, 2014 9:48am
I must say, TZs looks really good. I must thank EURUSDD again And thanks to all of those who summarized this concept really well. Special thanks to Rahimseven for an excellent PDF
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} ---
This is the way to trade TZs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TZ Table.png Size: 73 KB


One thing I would like to point out when you guys calculate TZ probability, make sure you are actually comparing it to RZ bars. Not all none TZ bars are RZ bars. So you must identify TZ and RZ bar separately in order to calculate probabilities properly.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #11,122
  • Oct 28, 2014 10:15am Oct 28, 2014 10:15am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting saver0
I must say, TZs looks really good. I must thank EURUSDD again And thanks to all of those who summarized this concept really well. Special thanks to Rahimseven for an excellent PDF {quote} This is the way to trade TZs {image} One thing I would like to point out when you guys calculate TZ probability, make sure you are actually comparing it to RZ bars. Not all none TZ bars are RZ bars. So you must identify TZ and RZ bar separately in order to calculate probabilities properly.

Looks great Saver but what is it showing? The level of recurrence in each pair over different timeframes?
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #11,123
  • Oct 28, 2014 10:20am Oct 28, 2014 10:20am
Quoting saver0
I must say, TZs looks really good. I must thank EURUSDD again And thanks to all of those who summarized this concept really well. Special thanks to Rahimseven for an excellent PDF {quote} This is the way to trade TZs {image} One thing I would like to point out when you guys calculate TZ probability, make sure you are actually comparing it to RZ bars. Not all none TZ bars are RZ bars. So you must identify TZ and RZ bar separately in order to calculate probabilities properly.
Awesome!!!


Thank you...
  • #11,124
  • Oct 28, 2014 10:26am Oct 28, 2014 10:26am
Quoting saver0
One thing I would like to point out when you guys calculate TZ probability, make sure you are actually comparing it to RZ bars. Not all none TZ bars are RZ bars. So you must identify TZ and RZ bar separately in order to calculate probabilities properly.
You can define a statistical frequency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_(statistics)) of whatever you want, and, with a sufficient number of samples, call it the empirical probability (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_probability) for the future such event. You do not have to compare it with anything to call it the probability.

Quoting saver0
Not all none TZ bars are RZ bars.
Please show an example.

k
  • #11,125
  • Oct 28, 2014 11:43am Oct 28, 2014 11:43am
Quoting Barbaresco
Another way to see the concept: For a significant (conditional) # of candles: ATR in pts M1: 1.7 M5: 4.2... ok, how about per minute: 0.84 M15: 5.9... ok, how about per minute: 0.39 Hey, that's weird... going up a tf has decreased relative movement per unit of time by almost half... what would need to occur for this to be true? And what about M1 - if we consider that the base tf, what is the relative incidence of recurrence? Can we use these ratios for anything?
My point was that the indicators are looking at whole candles instead of price ranges which adds complexity with regard to individual trades, aka quantifying necessary limits for a particular setup. Probability is giving %'s with regard to the average candle, where a partially transient candle goes in the transient column, and candles with untradeable range go in the recurrent column. Working within those bounds, a quick and dirty way to glean more from the stats is by comparing avg candles. Hope that is more clear.
  • #11,126
  • Oct 28, 2014 11:46am Oct 28, 2014 11:46am
Quoting saver0
I must say, TZs looks really good. I must thank EURUSDD again And thanks to all of those who summarized this concept really well. Special thanks to Rahimseven for an excellent PDF {quote} This is the way to trade TZs {image} One thing I would like to point out when you guys calculate TZ probability, make sure you are actually comparing it to RZ bars. Not all none TZ bars are RZ bars. So you must identify TZ and RZ bar separately in order to calculate probabilities properly.
Cool chart - would love to know what is being represented...
  • #11,127
  • Oct 28, 2014 12:10pm Oct 28, 2014 12:10pm
I coded RevealWormhole for 4 different timeframe pairs:

  1. 1 minute and 5 minutes
  2. 5 minute and 15 minutes
  3. 15 minutes and 30 minutes
  4. 30 minutes and 1 hour

You can control the K period values with external settings. The defaults are not necessarily the best so you can easily change them per your discretion. I'll post the EA source code later.

Open to new approaches.
  • #11,128
  • Oct 28, 2014 1:46pm Oct 28, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting Neio
{quote} Looks great Saver but what is it showing? The level of recurrence in each pair over different timeframes?
So for each currency and time frame, its showing how many pips away the nearest level is and the probability of it being hit based on TZ/RZ theory.

As you can see, just like EURUSDD said, there are very high probable multiple levels in every timeframe most times going in both directions.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #11,129
  • Edited 2:17pm Oct 28, 2014 1:54pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} You can define a statistical frequency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_(statistics)) of whatever you want, and, with a sufficient number of samples, call it the empirical probability (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_probability) for the future such event. You do not have to compare it with anything to call it the probability. {quote} Please show an example. k
Sure, let me show you.

All I'm saying is that people shouldn't take Confirmed Transient Bars: 122 of 10000 (1.22%) as if 98.78% of the bars are Recurring bars. Maybe everybody knows this already but it wasn't clear to me from the text I read so I just thought I should make the clarification before people who use the standard Transient_Zone indicator get mislead by the probabilities.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: none RZ bars.png Size: 37 KB
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #11,130
  • Oct 28, 2014 1:56pm Oct 28, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} So for each currency and time frame, its showing how many pips away the nearest level is and the probability of it being hit based on TZ/RZ theory. As you can see, just like EURUSDD said, there are very high probable multiple levels in every timeframe most times going in both directions.
Nice - and have your probabilities proved correct in forward live testing?
  • #11,131
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:03pm Oct 28, 2014 2:03pm
hey guys i was wondering when doing mtf analysis do you use the same setting for H left & H right on every time frame?
Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #11,132
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:04pm Oct 28, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} My point was that the indicators are looking at whole candles instead of price ranges which adds complexity with regard to individual trades, aka quantifying necessary limits for a particular setup. Probability is giving %'s with regard to the average candle, where a partially transient candle goes in the transient column, and candles with untradeable range go in the recurrent column. Working within those bounds, a quick and dirty way to glean more from the stats is by comparing avg candles. Hope that is more clear.
is - > can be defined by

i agree with everything else. it is very easy to change the provided code of the RS indicator and compare the tz zone height to atr, certain number of pips or whatever measure of usefulness you have. you can also easily measure other useful things. if somebody finds this useful and performs this modification, one is welcome to share it here.

i myself think that it is important to understand the world of the small.

cheers,
k
  • #11,133
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:08pm Oct 28, 2014 2:08pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting saver0
{quote} So for each currency and time frame, its showing how many pips away the nearest level is and the probability of it being hit based on TZ/RZ theory. As you can see, just like EURUSDD said, there are very high probable multiple levels in every timeframe most times going in both directions.

Sounds great! Congrats. Would be interested to see any results based on trades taken from this.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #11,134
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:15pm Oct 28, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Nice - and have your probabilities proved correct in forward live testing?
Just finished it last night. I'm making improvements to it now
Testing already began. I placed 16 trades last night and today. All hit except for one. One I'm still waiting on one. I'm ready to hedge once the time gets close to the expiration. They were off of M1 for small pips like 3-10pips per trade.
I will post here when I have done some extensive forward testing. You guys can make this too easily. I coded everything up in less than 12hrs including a new TZ/RZ indicator that measures the probabilities correctly.

Good luck everybody!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #11,135
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:21pm Oct 28, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Sure, let me show you. All I'm saying is that people shouldn't take Confirmed Transient Bars: 122 of 10000 (1.22%) as if 98.78% of the bars are Recurring bars. Maybe everybody knows this already but it wasn't clear to me from the text I read so I just thought I should make the clarification before people who use the standard Transient_Zone indicator get mislead by the probabilities. {image}
ok, thanks. i think that this particular zone is cleared on the right. however, even if it wouldn't be, it would not qualify to be h-transient for your choice of h, according to the definition 1. it is "cleared from the left hand side", as it were. so it would be considered a h-recurrent zone. the indicator is behaving correctly in this case.

cheers,
k
  • #11,136
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:31pm Oct 28, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} ok, thanks. i think that this particular zone is cleared on the right. however, even if it wouldn't be, it would not qualify to be h-transient for your choice of h, according to the definition 1. it is "cleared from the left hand side", as it were. so it would be considered a h-recurrent zone. the indicator is behaving correctly in this case. cheers, k
Yea, the indicator is fine in that sense. I just drew that as an example to show you a non-recurrent zone and its not a transient zone. Because you asked me to show you how non-transient zones may not be recurrent zones. So its the probabilities that people need to be careful with. If you just take the TZ indicators probability and subtract 100 from it and say thats the probability of recurrent zones, then it would be wrong.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #11,137
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:52pm Oct 28, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting tomitom
The more, people started with cycle bars and later turned to tz-tr and now martingale strategy... Please DECIDE ... If you are talking about tz-tr. please tell me difference from pivots-support and resistance points. Oh sorry for asking, i have to read thread
Nah.. you just need this..

Attached Image
  • #11,138
  • Oct 28, 2014 2:54pm Oct 28, 2014 2:54pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Yea, the indicator is fine in that sense. I just drew that as an example to show you a non-recurrent zone and its not a transient zone. Because you asked me to show you how non-transient zones may not be recurrent zones. So its the probabilities that people need to be careful with. If you just take the TZ indicators probability and subtract 100 from it and say thats the probability of recurrent zones, then it would be wrong.
i am sorry, i think that your understanding of the tz is not correct at this point in time. while i am happy that your trading is doing well, i would advise you to more carefully ponder the definition 1 and the proposition 1. i think this particular subject is covered in vlady's thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=509195) very well.

cheers,
k
  • #11,139
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:15pm Oct 28, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} i am sorry, i think that your understanding of the tz is not correct at this point in time. while i am happy that your trading is doing well, i would advise you to more carefully ponder the definition 1 and the proposition 1. i think this particular subject is covered in vlady's thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=509195) very well. cheers, k
I'm not going to argue or have a discussion of what theory is wrong or right. I maybe have my own theory that works according to stochastic probability theory. It actually seemed its the general populous of this thread that may not have understood the theory that was explained by EURUSDD correctly. But I'm actually thinking it's on a purpose that it became what it is... Which makes sense. We don't want everybody understanding the truth.. now do we? haha

Anyways, if you think I'm wrong, then so be it. Maybe I am, or maybe it is you or maybe we are all right

Since I am feeling so generous, I will highlight and point out the part that EURUSDD said that speaks of this. My indicator and dashboard is based on it, not what anybody is talking about or doing. What he said makes 100% perfect logical mathematical sense to me and to those of who I have discussed it with.

EURUSDD:
"Now if you get the h right for a given time frame and at the current price p, the previous bars never hit p, then probability is on your side for a hit
within the next h bars because the probability that p is h-transient is very low.
If your h is right, this probability should be about 3%. That is 97% of the time, at least one of the next h bars should hit p.
This works in theory and in practice for any stochastic process similar to the ones that govern currency prices!!!"

Good luck everybody!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #11,140
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:47pm Oct 28, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} I'm not going to argue or have a discussion of what theory is wrong or right.
No need to break it down to right or wrong. If it gives a statistical edge, it's right! Can you divulge your own definition of a TZ/RZ? Are you working with conditional h or just looking at it a different way, i.e. perhaps your relevant time period looks to satisfy 3% TZ, and you work backward to find the corresponding h-range to make 3% hold?
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