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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,941
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:44pm Oct 27, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Hopefully things do settle down. It gave me one of those screaming at you trades with those 3 bullish pins. Took it only to be stopped out, when any other time it takes off like a rocket. Still though, it was the week's open. I normally don't get much out of this day, so I'm not too surprised at how things went. At any rate, things will pick up as the week moves forward.
Monday is not easy, that is for sure.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #14,942
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:53pm Oct 27, 2014 5:53pm
German IFO was really bad but instead of sinking it's waiting for the FOMC on WED. to save it, good luck.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,943
  • Edited 11:50pm Oct 27, 2014 11:30pm | Edited 11:50pm
Quoting Temujin
German IFO was really bad but instead of sinking it's waiting for the FOMC on WED. to save it, good luck.
To save it? Whilst it may be in a small rising wedge to complete at 174.15/25, or not-printed top at about 174.3/4, any move over 174.5/6 would suggest acceleration to 175 or above.
  • #14,944
  • Oct 28, 2014 12:43am Oct 28, 2014 12:43am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} To save it? Whilst it may be in a small rising wedge to complete at 174.15/25, or not-printed top at about 174.3/4, any move over 174.5/6 would suggest acceleration to 175 or above.
Why am I always hoping you are wrong hehehe, I am praying for long opportunities and I don't want it going up right now. The ideal move would be for this to take a trip down to 173.40/60 zone and pick up our buy orders. Better yet 172.95 would be a very sweet spot, unfortunately we have no control. Those weekly charts are looking pretty sweet and I must say I am jealous of the guys holding positions from 170.xx A worthy goal is having a surviving position get to the 180's based on a strong trend that begun May 2012. So many opportunities abound, in the meantime we will take what Mr. Market offers for today
  • #14,945
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:18am Oct 28, 2014 3:18am
Eur/Jpy seemed to have made this downward move early but its facing some selling pressure and indecision on the Eur/Usd. Gbp/yen may not be taking that trip down after-all but move with momentum.
  • #14,946
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:24am Oct 28, 2014 3:24am
Yeah, it keeps being held up, yet going nowhere just yet. It wants to rise ... or at least stay up
  • #14,947
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:46am Oct 28, 2014 3:46am
Quoting Mpt
Yeah, it keeps being held up, yet going nowhere just yet. It wants to rise ... or at least stay up
Very momentum-less market for now with ranges forming in most pairs.... you either get chopped up or take a couple of break-evens. can barely get a 2:1 trade without incurring lots of risk. This may be a scalpers dream, unfortunately I have work to go to. Good luck guys and green pips
  • #14,948
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:07am Oct 28, 2014 5:07am
BUY TP 174.45
  • #14,949
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:15am Oct 28, 2014 5:15am
Quoting Barca
BUY TP 174.45
Then sell @ 174.45/50 Tp 174.00
  • #14,950
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:50am Oct 28, 2014 5:50am
New HIGH!! BUY!!
  • #14,951
  • Edited 6:21am Oct 28, 2014 6:03am | Edited 6:21am
Hi fellows,

I just want to make a post to clarify how I use those decision points because I have a feeling there are still some misconception about them and how I use them.

When I post those DP every week, I guess some of you have noticed that these points have a big profit margin, the distance so to speak which are most of the time depending on volatility and range per time.

My approach is very primitive and simple.

I am a representative of the theory of complete unpredictability & uncertainty in the markets, these DP are NOT certain and predictable by definition but the degree of uncertainty at/in those DP is far less than between those DP.

I want to break it down:

In this post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post7825706) I defined eight of those DPs for the current week.
So we are still between DP(6) 173.20/00 and DP(5) 176.20/00, thats a profit margin of 300 Pips; at those level I consider less uncertainty and randomness and anything above DP (6) and below DP (5) I consider completely random and uncertain, I totally ignore any action, formation, TA, News(!), [put any approach/methodology/system/theory here] there until price is at any of those DP again, period.

Its a very difficult but effective way to trade but there is hugh downside to it: Human Emotions.

Best regards and good luck.

Inserted Video
  • #14,952
  • Oct 28, 2014 8:21am Oct 28, 2014 8:21am
TP!..
  • #14,953
  • Oct 28, 2014 9:03am Oct 28, 2014 9:03am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Looks good at the minute for higher targets, but shall bail out on longs if it goes to 172.90. Keeping a close eye on both the sides. This week is going to interesting. Lets keep a close tab. Thanks for the input once again!
Are you still in this trade?
  • #14,954
  • Oct 28, 2014 1:55pm Oct 28, 2014 1:55pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Are you still in this trade?
Yes I am still holding on to them. It never went on to hit my stop at 172.90 (which I am happy about). Sorry for the late reply, was away all day today. Hope all is well with you.

Cheers!
  • #14,955
  • Oct 28, 2014 3:21pm Oct 28, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Yes I am still holding on to them. It never went on to hit my stop at 172.90 (which I am happy about). Sorry for the late reply, was away all day today. Hope all is well with you. Cheers!
Well done, you should take profit at 176.20/00; no reason to give away 800Pips.
  • #14,956
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:17pm Oct 28, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Well done, you should take profit at 176.20/00; no reason to give away 800Pips.
Most definitely yes! It's all because of you, I must admit it is quite challenging emotionally to hang on but I am ready to book it near 176 area. In fact I will be watching it closely and if anything changes in between, will act accordingly, trying to detach myself from the trade. Will keep you posted in between.

Once again, kudos my friend!
  • #14,957
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:40pm Oct 28, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Most definitely yes! It's all because of you, I must admit it is quite challenging emotionally to hang on but I am ready to book it near 176 area. In fact I will be watching it closely and if anything changes in between, will act accordingly, trying to detach myself from the trade. Will keep you posted in between. Once again, kudos my friend!
Can only second that. I am still way to attached to my trades personally and I have to work on this to get the results I want. For instance, I took a long this morning at 174.60-70 area, when price was in a range. Puzzled by that, I just took it off despite having a nearby support and reasonable stop. Then it took off of course ... then I get s/o way too often after seeing price in my direction after that, take profits too early ... at least I do not let losers run any more like in the first days and have developed an allergic reaction to draw downs more than a healthy amount ... I hope that is a start.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #14,958
  • Oct 28, 2014 6:08pm Oct 28, 2014 6:08pm
Seems most of the issues we have as a whole is in trade management. Just have to remember that a loss is part of trading and as long as we stick to a plan and a system it will pay off in the long run. I too need to stick this in my head... looking forward to tomorrow. The big one is always tomorrow as long as you in the game !!!
  • #14,959
  • Edited 10:06pm Oct 28, 2014 8:20pm | Edited 10:06pm
There's always two sides to a story. Break over 174.7 has it into 175, heading for 176.

Drop below 174.1 AND 173.8 has it going the other way. Depends largely on holding onto its gains at 174.4
  • #14,960
  • Oct 28, 2014 10:23pm Oct 28, 2014 10:23pm
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