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AUD/USD

  • #85,981
  • Oct 26, 2014 8:10pm Oct 26, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting Patron
{quote} AUDUSD H4 Thanks for your answer. I expected a similar movement to which I point out in the chart. This is another way of looking at it. We have a quick wave A, where vendors closed suddenly. Then a B wave triangle shaped symmetrical correcting wave A, or fill many orders, which did not yield the A wave time. Then I lack the C wave, that would seek liquidity to follow later with the weekly trend down, if this were the last vawe corrective, in this complex correction. Or is another way to convince myself that the correction is not over....
H4 candle has broken the triangle upward.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4 break tri.PNG Size: 115 KB

But on this site they say ..
http://www.efxnews.com/story/26655/s...s-bofa-merrill
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  • #85,982
  • Oct 26, 2014 8:23pm Oct 26, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting Patron
{quote} H4 candle has broken the triangle upward. {image} But on this site they say .. http://www.efxnews.com/story/26655/s...s-bofa-merrill
Yes, I think my original analysis posted above is still valid since Friday's high didn't get broken. Good short opportunity now. But I think we'll see a bounce...

My opinion is that trend lines, triangles or channels aren't going to be very reliable unless you are trading longer term and want to hold through a lot of swings. The horizontal S/R usually over-rides trend lines. I've the attached H4 chart, I've shown the trend/channel which I think we'll eventually win out. But for now, I think we're still stuck between the horizontal lines of the last swing high/low...

But if Friday's high is broke, maybe more upside, but I still think there are way too many barriers for it to break through for any significant break out at this point. I'm beginning to wonder if it may just sneak it's way up to 90 bouncing all the way
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #85,983
  • Edited Oct 27, 2014 4:59am Oct 26, 2014 9:06pm | Edited Oct 27, 2014 4:59am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Yes, I think my original analysis posted above is still valid since Friday's high didn't get broken. Good short opportunity now. But I think we'll see a bounce... My opinion is that trend lines, triangles or channels aren't going to be very reliable unless you are trading longer term and want to hold through a lot of swings. The horizontal S/R usually over-rides trend lines. I've the attached H4 chart, I've shown the trend/channel which I think we'll eventually win out. But for now, I think we're still stuck between the horizontal lines...
My approach for this pair, given the complex market condition,
has been trying to simplify the correction, through general knowledge that I have about corrections. The result was, and still is, for me that the correction is not over. But the triangle itself has ended, and missing a wave, called wave "C".
Right now the price has gone 38% of the "A", which would be the minimum target of "C". So you could start and down, but I see it more easy to follow up.
Whoever is long, has the stoploss closer, and who is short may be covered if the price keeps going until he comes to the overall bearish trend.

PD: Sorry for the number of lines that have this chart, because I have used it to analyze. Normally I trade a much cleaner chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vawe C.PNG Size: 143 KB
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  • #85,984
  • Oct 26, 2014 9:12pm Oct 26, 2014 9:12pm
Quoting Patron
{quote} My approach for this pair, given the complex market condition, has been trying to simplify the correction, through general knowledge that I have about corrections. The result was, and still is, for me that the correction is not over. But the triangle itself has ended, and missing a wave, sometimes called wave "C", and sometimes the wave called "Z". Right now the price has gone 38% of the "A", which would be the minimum target of "C". So you could start and down, but I see it more easy to follow up. Whoever is long, has the stoploss closer,...
Cool
You make me want to study the wave theory
  • #85,985
  • Oct 26, 2014 9:21pm Oct 26, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Cool You make me want to study the wave theory
The wave theory is complex and subjective. Actually, the label either waves is a task that the trader does not care, because of the multitude of degrees. But the basics are very useful to approach the trading. My opinion.
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  • #85,986
  • Oct 26, 2014 9:34pm Oct 26, 2014 9:34pm
AUDUSD M30

Let's see if this double top is confirmed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: doble techo.PNG Size: 112 KB
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  • #85,987
  • Oct 26, 2014 9:47pm Oct 26, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting Patron
AUDUSD M30 Let's see if this double top is confirmed. {image}
Looks ready to make a new high for the day?


Another thing I was looking at is the gap up for the daily/weekly open. Could act as the bottom now...
  • #85,988
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:00pm Oct 26, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Looks ready to make a new high for the day? Another thing I was looking at is the gap up for the daily/weekly open. Could act as the bottom now...
Yes, it's true horizontal lines (S & R) are more important than the trend lines.
But in my opinion, this is a special case where the trend line belongs to a triangle, which, in my opinion, only contains the B wave, and therefore, is bullish.
Now, as I said before, the supposed wave "C" would have served their minimum target, which is, as I also said before, 38% of wave "A". So there is a 50% chance for the price to go north or south.
My personal feeling to continue north. But this is a double top, we do not know yet how it will be resolved now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: norte o ssur.PNG Size: 114 KB
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  • #85,989
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:04pm Oct 26, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Looks ready to make a new high for the day? Another thing I was looking at is the gap up for the daily/weekly open. Could act as the bottom now...
My broker does not show a gap, as you can see in my charts. You can post the gap?
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  • #85,990
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:06pm Oct 26, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting Patron
{quote} My broker does not show a gap, as you can see in my charts. You can post the gap?
okay, in a minute...
  • #85,991
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:12pm Oct 26, 2014 10:12pm
the gap - Friday close at 87873 and today's open at 87990
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #85,992
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:17pm Oct 26, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting Patron
{quote} Yes, it's true horizontal lines (S & R) are more important than the trend lines. But in my opinion, this is a special case where the trend line belongs to a triangle, which, in my opinion, only contains the B wave, and therefore, is bullish. Now, as I said before, the supposed wave "C" would have served their minimum target, which is, as I also said before, 38% of wave "A". So there is a 50% chance for the price to go north or south. My personal feeling to continue north. But this is a double top, we do not know yet how it will be resolved...
as far as which way it will go, I think I agree with you. Not looking "beary" friendly right now...
  • #85,993
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:24pm Oct 26, 2014 10:24pm
Quoting benaiah
the gap - Friday close at 87873 and today's open at 87990 {image}
To me, a gap is the USDJPY. It is true that the closing and opening of the AUDUSD not match, but the maximum and minimum (shadows), have not left gap.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: no gap.PNG Size: 55 KB
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  • #85,994
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:29pm Oct 26, 2014 10:29pm
Quoting Patron
{quote} To me, a gap is the USDJPY. It is true that the closing and opening of the AUDUSD not match, but the maximum and minimum (shadows), have not left gap. {image} {image}
Okay, I guess more than one way to look at it. Also depends on what time frame you look it on.

But I was noticing that the after bullish push to start the day above the gap, price pulled back, fell into the gap very briefly and hasn't looked back since. So, that tells me it is acting as support. I'd expect if it falls back down there, it will bounce again, and would be surprised if it fell through and started moving away from it. But anything is possible of course.

But, yes, that USDJPY gap is a super gap, and for AUDUSD we only have a mini-me gap

Edit:fixed typo
  • #85,995
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:49pm Oct 26, 2014 10:49pm
Unless something changes, and the big bears come to the party, it's looking to me like we'll test 8850-70 (top of the channel on H4 chart below).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 85 KB
  • #85,996
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:52pm Oct 26, 2014 10:52pm
And who knows, maybe it'll go higher, as it has broken the top of the channel before.

Anyway, lower time frames showing bullish consolidation, so doesn't seem ready to turn back yet...
  • #85,997
  • Oct 26, 2014 10:56pm Oct 26, 2014 10:56pm
Quoting benaiah
And who knows, maybe it'll go higher, as it has broken the top of the channel before. Anyway, lower time frames showing bullish consolidation, so doesn't seem ready to turn back yet...
50% ... Until it is defined.
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  • #85,998
  • Oct 27, 2014 6:24am Oct 27, 2014 6:24am
Hi Guys:

What a stubborn pair. Market Makers are trying hard to keep it from going up. It will eventually hit my price of 0.90. ( This is my own opinion ).
  • #85,999
  • Oct 27, 2014 6:53am Oct 27, 2014 6:53am
Entered on 15m TF and watching the 5m TF at the moment. Expecting a 50% retracement before hitting my TP.
  • #86,000
  • Oct 27, 2014 6:56am Oct 27, 2014 6:56am
Quoting Fx-opinion
Hi Guys: What a stubborn pair. Market Makers are trying hard to keep it from going up. It will eventually hit my price of 0.90. ( This is my own opinion ).
Its USD, very strong and holding.
All posts are my personal opinion
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