A full week of consolidation is coming to a close. Price was locked in a range the entire week. Maybe price is at it's true value. Perhaps any move away from this range should be met with a trade plan targeting back to the range. Something to ponder.
- #85,962
- Oct 24, 2014 3:56pm Oct 24, 2014 3:56pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
I don't do a lot of chart drawing - I trade mostly by numbers...based on this - I think we could see a little more downside but a "where the heck is this coming from?" kinda move for the AUD is developing I think. Risky time to add fresh shorts. Long scalps with breakout potential or to be added to are safest in terms of risk for me right now.
Today, clearly rejected 88285 area as shown on the H4 chart. Couldn't even touch it, and hasn't closed above it all month (except one spike and done)...
Currently short, but I'll look for buying opportunities at the bottom of the ascending triangle shown in attached H4 chart.
Happy trading!
- #85,964
- Oct 24, 2014 4:15pm Oct 24, 2014 4:15pm
also believe that a break above 88285 (strong H4 close above) will quickly target 90ish area...
green pips to all of us 
(think I should make it my signature 
)It will get there, friend, it will. Question is "when?"
{quote} yeah. ... only if Ebola eats whole New York over weekend. USD index set up bullish .
add "how?"
(I get up or down, but, always interesting to see how something other than what was thought possible causes both sides to be right..)
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
- #85,966
- Oct 24, 2014 4:23pm Oct 24, 2014 4:23pm
I don't do a lot of chart drawing - I trade mostly by numbers...based on this - I think we could see a little more downside but a "where the heck is this coming from?" kinda move for the AUD is developing I think. Risky time to add fresh shorts. Long scalps with breakout potential or to be added to are safest in terms of risk for me right now.
{quote} Chart in my view, agrees with your downside view. Of course there could always be a bounce. I'm not anywhere near ready to think there's a breakout looming with this thing. Today, clearly rejected 88285 area as shown on the H4 chart. Couldn't even touch it, and hasn't closed above it all month (except one spike and done)... Currently short, but I'll look for buying opportunities at the bottom of the ascending triangle shown in attached H4 chart. Happy trading!
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
- #85,968
- Oct 24, 2014 4:28pm Oct 24, 2014 4:28pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
{quote} yeah. ... only if Ebola eats whole New York over weekend. USD index set up bullish .
Getting easier to read where this thing is going, I think. As long as it continues consolidating within that ascending triangle, no doubt in my mind it will break out up and head to 90 right away. The pressure is building in a very bullish way. As long as the story it tells remains the same, the results are imminent...
And more and more traders are going to pile in if it keeps following that upward trend line at the bottom of the ascending triangle. In fact all my future trades on this pair may only be entering long at the bottom of that trend line and/or a break out above 88285. Makes sense the way I see it now anyway...
The next week or 2 might be exciting...
- #85,969
- Oct 24, 2014 4:34pm Oct 24, 2014 4:34pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
{quote} timing for news next week looks good for a bounce imo...FED announcing a new fresh round of QE generating a new equities bull run....and there you have it - and up AUD...
For example, with all the news over past few weeks what has it done for AUDUSD? I just bounced up and down in a range. Any trader could have just watched the price and traded the range regardless of the news. But hey, if watching the news works for you or anyone else, then great! I have to keep things simple. I don't assume anything that the price isn't telling me. And if I wait for the price to come to my entry points, I won't be chasing news spikes all over the place
{quote} You could be right. I don't trade the news though. I haven't found that it typical does anything for my trading except cause me to be indecisive. I'll stick to my tech analysis. Whatever happens, whether it be perceived as a result of the news or not, the price will do enough talking for me
I totally agree with following what price is telling you and I also agree with looking at how price has moved, not just in terms of levels, but in terms of "distance traveled". This approach has served me quite well in my trading by helping to identify what an "extended" or over extended move is for a particular pair.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
- #85,971
- Oct 24, 2014 8:04pm Oct 24, 2014 8:04pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2013 | 2,500 Posts
{quote} I've found over time news announcements to be the excuse for a technical move that's due. I don't trade the news, I use what I do to see what's appropriate for the news to trigger. I totally agree with following what price is telling you and I also agree with looking at how price has moved, not just in terms of levels, but in terms of "distance traveled". This approach has served me quite well in my trading by helping to identify what an "extended" or over extended move is for a particular pair.
Money Makes Money
- #85,974
- Edited 5:25pm Oct 25, 2014 5:10pm | Edited 5:25pm
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
- #85,975
- Oct 26, 2014 2:29am Oct 26, 2014 2:29am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: Senior Member | 3,052 Posts
{quote} now i know this might seem imagenary or not possible, but honestly this is how i see AU! i did not want to post my full analysis in the earlier post as it would make some people freakout or probably call me insaneLOL anyhow, please have a look at my chart, you see the pair did complet ABCD pattern much earlier and has already retraced pass the 38.2 Fibbo retracement, i see the current move as a correction to be followed with a move towards the 50 Fibbo before retracing and contiuing all the way down to 0.81xx! {image}
- #85,977
- Oct 26, 2014 9:19am Oct 26, 2014 9:19am
{quote} Please see my previous posts couple of days ago and you will see why this baby will hit .90. Of course this is my own opinion and I have told everyone here that I will show my investor password after my buy audusd position is closed.
your opinion is nice and actually make sense to me green pips, friend 