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AUD/USD

  • #85,761
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:39am Oct 23, 2014 10:39am
Might rise to 8764 and drop and then continue rising.
  • #85,762
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:40am Oct 23, 2014 10:40am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} held at 8752ish, bottom inching up. Once the bottom is 8759 (towards top of gap), I don't look for it to turn back for a while... Again, my analysis is based on that gap. As long as it bounces off it even when falling through, the bottom will keep getting higher. Once the bottom is above the gap, I believe all of the very big bulls will decide to go long on this thing...
always hard to tell which way to be going on these tightly wound ranges. Still holding my short, tightened up my stops but if price gets over 8770 from here i think ill be closing shorts and going long
I Am The Danger... I Am The One Who Knocks
  • #85,763
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:44am Oct 23, 2014 10:44am
Probably goes without saying, but bears only control the top of the range, which means nothing at this point. Same as bulls controlling bottom of range doesn't really mean much long-term.

However, to me, the deciding factor is that gap, as it is the line in the sand. Notice how bulls have been protecting it for days now. H4 chart shows more price action, but to see the gap clearly you have to look at a D1 chart...

Edit: for bears to take control, they'll need to break through the bottom of that gap, otherwise we are in bull territory all the way...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 21 KB
  • #85,764
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:54am Oct 23, 2014 10:54am
And if you aren't familiar with gap trading, and want confirmation on the validity of this little gap theory, look at GBPJPY on a daily chart, what's been happening over last few days, and what's happening right now? Bears tried to push below the gap, got rejected, and now blast off for the bulls. If it comes back down, look for a lot of buying at the gap. If it falls through, look for price action to reject it and go short (doubt if it falls through for a while).

Wish I had the patience to just wait for price to be near a gap. Very high percentage win rate with this type of trading...
  • #85,765
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:59am Oct 23, 2014 10:59am
Quoting fxtradeabi
{quote} Before 10 EST? Your target isn't too far but at this point I wouldn't go long now and would go short or wait it out till about 10 ish.
Not sure I understand your reply. I posted a "before and after" of the AUDUSD on the m5. First chart shows where price is going and the second shows the target has been obtained. Here is where price is going now.

K.I.S.S.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8744.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #85,766
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:00am Oct 23, 2014 11:00am
Quoting firsttrader
{quote} Looks like you are trying to create every reason to justify your positions..
As I have indicated yesterday just look at the weekly chart and it tells you the direction that this baby is going. Based on this chart you could set up your either scalping, swinging or long trade whatever you prefer. ( This is my own opinion )
  • #85,767
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:02am Oct 23, 2014 11:02am
Quoting KissFan
AUDUSD Long 10.23.2014 {image} {image}
Based on that chart you were going long or suggesting that it was going long to 8799 and I was telling you it wasn't. If you weren't, nothing to lose I suppose.
  • #85,768
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:05am Oct 23, 2014 11:05am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} As I have indicated yesterday just look at the weekly chart and it tells you the direction that this baby is going. Based on this chart you could set up your either scalping, swinging or long trade whatever you prefer. ( This is my own opinion )

just posting chart doesn't solve the problem.. you should know the stops and target area.
  • #85,769
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:07am Oct 23, 2014 11:07am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} As I have indicated yesterday just look at the weekly chart and it tells you the direction that this baby is going. Based on this chart you could set up your either scalping, swinging or long trade whatever you prefer. ( This is my own opinion )
Have to say I agree with you now on being long. However, just looking at the weekly chart wasn't enough for me. I have to see channels line up and align in a way I'm comfortable in terms of estimating direction. But looks too choppy for me. This can be said on daily too, at least in my opinion, looks very choppy. But watching price action for past week and seeing that gap hold has brought me on board the bull train.

However, I'll jump off if that gap doesn't hold
  • #85,770
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:08am Oct 23, 2014 11:08am
Quoting firsttrader
{quote} just posting chart doesn't solve the problem.. you should know the stops and target area.
My TP is 0.90 and I do not use the stop loss since the weekly chart tells me that the price has already hit the bottom. ( This is my own opinion)
  • #85,771
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:10am Oct 23, 2014 11:10am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} My TP is 0.90 and I do not use the stop loss since the weekly chart tells me that the price has already hit the bottom. ( This is my own opinion)
Would you care to elaborate HOW your weekly chart is indicating the bottom?
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #85,772
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:11am Oct 23, 2014 11:11am
Quoting fxtradeabi
{quote} Based on that chart you were going long or suggesting that it was going long to 8799 and I was telling you it wasn't. If you weren't, nothing to lose I suppose.
OK bro! Just posting a winning trade was all. Stroking my own ego I guess. So now I am short to 8744 per my last chart posted.

K.I.S.S.
  • #85,773
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:13am Oct 23, 2014 11:13am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} My TP is 0.90 and I do not use the stop loss since the weekly chart tells me that the price has already hit the bottom. ( This is my own opinion)
Okay, I completely understand not using an SL on the weekly time frame, since it's longer term and it is not really significant what the price does on any given day. However, you have to have some sort of manual SL in mind. I mean how low would it go before you decide to exit?
  • #85,774
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:14am Oct 23, 2014 11:14am
Quoting Fx-opinion
{quote} My TP is 0.90 and I do not use the stop loss since the weekly chart tells me that the price has already hit the bottom. ( This is my own opinion)
your a brave soul...
Attached Image
I Am The Danger... I Am The One Who Knocks
  • #85,775
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:15am Oct 23, 2014 11:15am
Quoting KissFan
{quote} OK bro! Just posting a winning trade was all. Stroking my own ego I guess. So now I am short to 8744 per my last chart posted. K.I.S.S.
Interesting. So you are assuming it will break yesterday's and today's low? I'd be taking profits right now on any shorts. But just my opinion...

You can come back and gloat if I'm wrong
  • #85,776
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:15am Oct 23, 2014 11:15am
Quoting LizardGizzard
{quote} Would you care to elaborate HOW your weekly chart is indicating the bottom?
As I have posted the chart yesterday, if you use the indicators RSI and stoichiometry then you will get my point. Both are showing the same fact that the price has bottomed. However, please note that this is my own opinion.
  • #85,777
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:18am Oct 23, 2014 11:18am
Quoting HeisenbergFx
{quote} your a brave soul... {image}
  • #85,778
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:18am Oct 23, 2014 11:18am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Interesting. So you are assuming it will break yesterday's and today's low? I'd be taking profits right now on any shorts. But just my opinion... You can come back and gloat if I"m wrong
LOL! Thanks for being a good sport and best of trading to you.

K.I.S.S.
  • #85,779
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:18am Oct 23, 2014 11:18am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Interesting. So you are assuming it will break yesterday's and today's low? I'd be taking profits right now on any shorts. But just my opinion... You can come back and gloat if I'm wrong
However, I don't think any intraday trader should ever assume the daily low or prior day low will be broken. Too risky. A lot of buyers hang around there, especially in an uptrend or range bound market...

Again, just my opinion...
  • #85,780
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:19am Oct 23, 2014 11:19am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} However, I don't think any intraday trader should ever assume the daily low or prior day low will be broken. Too risky. A lot of buyers hang around their, especially in an uptrend or range bound market... Again, just my opinion...
You can still gloat though
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