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NZD/USD

  • #8,101
  • Edited 5:12am Oct 23, 2014 2:38am | Edited 5:12am
I have just read news.

Title : $A sharply higher against the kiwi
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/sh...063802194.html

waiting for US jobless claims and leading indicator tonight.

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Attached Image

The above chart is 2 hour chart for NZD/USD.

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(HKT16:06)NZD/AUD=0.8937

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Attached Image

The above chart is 15 minute chart for NZD/USD.

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Attached Image

The above chart is 1 minute chart for NZD/USD.
  • #8,102
  • Oct 23, 2014 2:53am Oct 23, 2014 2:53am
Quoting KiwiOz
NU has broken decisively through the Bearish wedge on the Daily chart. Continuation will be targeting 0.7400 with a few speed bumps on the way. {image} {image} {image}
because dairy products price is stable for now, and will pick up by next year early. so I think NZD is at bottom range.
  • #8,103
  • Oct 23, 2014 3:42am Oct 23, 2014 3:42am
Quoting zew
{quote} because dairy products price is stable for now, and will pick up by next year early. so I think NZD is at bottom range.
The Dairy prices have taken a huge blow & it will be this time next year before a recovery. Meantime the NU is destined for a large drop.
Money Makes Money
  • #8,104
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:08am Oct 23, 2014 10:08am
I chose NzdUsd to be my next trade.

Technically spoken we have a textbook trend continuation wedge on the daily chart. The lower line got decisevly broken today - for me a sell signal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdsell.JPG Size: 67 KB


If we zoom out and watch the weekly chart, there is a major double top in place. NzdUsd just retested the broken trendline last week, and got clearly rejected.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdsellweekl.JPG Size: 74 KB


Fundamentally, we have an interesting environment favouring to sell this pair. The RBNZ is obviously very engaged in pushing their currency lower, they even started to intervene in the FX market, something that spooked alot of carry trade money away from the NZD. Now my trigger point to enter a sell position was yesterdays US CPI and NZ CPI data release. We have a clear divergence on our hands right now, big banks are pushing back rate hike expectations for New Zealand into late 2015 and even into early 2016 after the disappointing data from NZ. The RBNZ has a price stability target of 1-3% now we are at the lower band of this target, of course rate hikes are now far away from being realised. Also milk prices are still pressuring the NZ economy, and China seems to be in a slowdown which is of course also having a negative effect on the NZ economy. On the other hand its very well known that the US is currently experiencing an upwind and thats where my position comes into play.

I entered a NzdUsd Sell Position @ 0.7860, i placed a tight 100 pip hard stop. Now my first "shortterm" target would be 0.7720, and afterwards i would be adjusting my stop and looking for a move towards 0.7500.


Good luck.
consistency wins
  • #8,105
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:13am Oct 23, 2014 10:13am
Quoting iTrader
I chose NzdUsd to be my next trade. Technically spoken we have a textbook trend continuation wedge on the daily chart. The lower line got decisevly broken today - for me a sell signal. {image} If we zoom out and watch the weekly chart, there is a major double top in place. NzdUsd just retested the broken trendline last week, and got clearly rejected. {image} Fundamentally, we have an interesting environment favouring to sell this pair. The RBNZ is obviously very engaged in pushing their currency lower, they even started to intervene in the FX market,...
I like you analysis... but this looks like it will take time to short to your tp limit... maybe next week but not before this weeks close or todays asia open
  • #8,106
  • Oct 23, 2014 12:15pm Oct 23, 2014 12:15pm
History shows us that in average the last quarter of each year tends to negative trade balences and I'm counting on that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 28 KB
  • #8,107
  • Oct 23, 2014 2:17pm Oct 23, 2014 2:17pm
Scenario number one fall to 077 000
Scenario number two to rise 08000
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd.jpg Size: 251 KB
Capital management
  • #8,108
  • Oct 23, 2014 2:29pm Oct 23, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting nasko
My short NZD/USD trade from yesterday. Is there anybody else here trading just Daily price action? I am holding the position open... Regards, Nasko {image}
What were your reasons for taking this short?
  • #8,109
  • Oct 23, 2014 2:42pm Oct 23, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting edge540
{quote} What were your reasons for taking this short?
A very good signal from colibritrader.com... an ex prop trader made a blog for signals for free. I would
have seen it myself, as well, but yesterday I was busy and this signal came handy. Otherwise, the signal
itself is from a pinbar and two red candles engulfing the previous one on the Daily!

Chrz,
Nasko
  • #8,110
  • Oct 23, 2014 2:55pm Oct 23, 2014 2:55pm
Still holding 7938 short position...hey whatever happened to that 7830 1min resistance ...still gathering pips,, have fun all and GL
I'm not a "Businessman" I'm a "Business-man"!! Jay-Z
  • #8,111
  • Oct 23, 2014 4:31pm Oct 23, 2014 4:31pm
Liking this bottom here . Going LONG since this is now sitting on 4hr support
  • #8,112
  • Oct 23, 2014 4:58pm Oct 23, 2014 4:58pm
What do you say when something happens very quickly..
It's gonna be good wasn't it?
  • #8,113
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:00pm Oct 23, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting Karpa
What do you say when something happens very quickly.. It's gonna be good wasn't it?
mehnn that was crazyyyy hoping to see a downward trend now!!...
  • #8,114
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:00pm Oct 23, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting Karpa
What do you say when something happens very quickly.. It's gonna be good wasn't it?
It will make a mess
  • #8,115
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:01pm Oct 23, 2014 5:01pm
I was banking on a huge drop down on the bad news....yet .....

Quoting poseikwame
{quote} mehnn that was crazyyyy hoping to see a downward trend now!!...
  • #8,116
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:05pm Oct 23, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} It will make a mess
haha that's right
  • #8,117
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:06pm Oct 23, 2014 5:06pm
Quoting kentashiburo
I was banking on a huge drop down on the bad news....yet ..... {quote}
well the dust is settling... hopeful!! that was to clear stop losses etc
  • #8,118
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:07pm Oct 23, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting Karpa
What do you say when something happens very quickly.. It's gonna be good wasn't it?
Yep !
  • #8,119
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:08pm Oct 23, 2014 5:08pm
I'm leaving my shorts open, moved TP to 0.77810 for 40 pips
  • #8,120
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:10pm Oct 23, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting Karpa
I'm leaving my shorts open, moved TP to 0.77810 for 40 pips
yu think it can hit 40pips below... it looks indecisive
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