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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #221
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:34am Oct 23, 2014 6:34am
Quoting adeforex
{quote} you have come with an intimidating account again?
I'd like to call it encouraging rather than intimidating
I just can't hold it above 100K it keeps on wanting to go down, I would love to put the blame on Draghi but it doesn't make sense

Once I reach 125K I will post a detailed report of the account & its stages before withdrawing a large chunk of the money.
I'm sure that already there are people that are saying that Jay is posting less because he blew up his account & some stupid nonsense. So its nice to remind them from time to time what some extra hard work, dedication, and most importantly Money Management can do.
  • #222
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:38am Oct 23, 2014 6:38am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I'd like to call it encouraging rather than intimidating I just can't hold it above 100K it keeps on wanting to go down, I would love to put the blame on Draghi but it doesn't make sense Once I reach 125K I will post a detailed report of the account & its stages before withdrawing a large chunk of the money. I'm sure that already there are people that are saying that Jay is posting less because he blew up his account & some stupid nonsense. So its nice to remind them from time to time what some extra hard work, dedication, and most...
and most importantly Money Management!!!
  • #223
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:42am Oct 23, 2014 6:42am
Hi everyone,
I have just finished reading and I feel I should read again.
Thank you vlady1974 and many contributors!
  • #224
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:42am Oct 23, 2014 6:42am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} and most importantly Money Management!!!


that's where it is. That and position sizing.

Simple concepts - hard to implement. Even I have trouble with them.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #225
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:42am Oct 23, 2014 6:42am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} and most importantly Money Management!!!
Exactly...
  • #226
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:47am Oct 23, 2014 6:47am
I successfully implemented the value of "k". For each "k" have an "h", that gives me a sample space to develop hitting probabilities.
Still in test.


EDIT: 97% of success. 97% SUCCESS. I think it's worth further in these areas. Uneven areas is one of the keys.
  • #227
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:48am Oct 23, 2014 6:48am
Quoting burnssss
I successfully implemented the value of "k". For each "k" have an "h", that gives me a sample space to develop hitting probabilities. Still in test


I know you worked hard on that mate! Congrats to you!
Look forward to your results.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #228
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:59am Oct 23, 2014 6:59am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Like I said earlier, based on my understanding, the probabilities are much more tied to PTZs as opposed to CTZs. {quote} Take a good look at the price I was filled at. If price had simply kept going down(like it usually does in many cases like this), My trade would simply not have been triggered. For me to be committed to make an entry, price had to do something RARE! I really I'm saying too much now and should probably shut up.
Looks something like waiting for past TZ to not be a TZ on a higher tf/scope?
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #229
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:07am Oct 23, 2014 7:07am
Quoting burnssss
I successfully implemented the value of "k". For each "k" have an "h", that gives me a sample space to develop hitting probabilities. Still in test. EDIT: 97% of success. 97% SUCCESS. I think it's worth further in these areas. Uneven areas is one of the keys.
My understanding of the variable k is a price range (pip range, for example 10 pips). You say each k has an appropriate h value so that 97% of prices in that range/zone are h recurrent. Is that what you have found? Or is k something else in your view?

the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #230
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:08am Oct 23, 2014 7:08am
Quoting LiquidGenius
{quote} Looks something like waiting for past TZ to not be a TZ on a higher tf/scope?
You could be right. But haven't really looked at it from that angle to be honest. It's been proven that there are so many different ways of seeing the same things. Whichever one resonates with you best i guess.
  • #231
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:25am Oct 23, 2014 7:25am
Maybe we can take trade at the 50% of retracement of price range between previous complet TZ?
  • #232
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:45am Oct 23, 2014 7:45am
Quoting ginger
Maybe we can take trade at the 50% of retracement of price range between previous complet TZ?
That's an interesting idea. I'd not thought to do it that way but give it a try?

Remember though to be wary of trending vs ranging. If you manage to spot a strong spike move, then it's probable that you'll move into a ranging consolidation stage... if you're aggressive, you could try it on the first 2 swings. It's a reasonable enough idea.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #233
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:56am Oct 23, 2014 7:56am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} In theory 2 consecutive full formed (confirmed) TZs pointing in the same direction are very unlikely, but not excluded. On any chart, if h is big enough, I see alterning TZs as the rule (backtesting confirms this). To the second chart posted by LITEchild {image} Why did you expect the price to rise? Not so clear to me, as the last TZ points down.
Okay... I'm not exactly answering the question directly but here's what I would have done. But then... it's hard to really say I would have done it because, I don't often go to 30M, these tend to be scalps and more importantly I have other things I add to my "secret" in order to filter out trades etc.

Anyway, alternating UTZ are something I noticed.... I tend to anticipate them (rightly or wrongly) so they don't necessarily have to be fully formed (ie. right h complete)
If you make a comparison between FreeFox and Kprsa indicator you may notice a specific pattern (that develops on the left).

In any case, your money management etc is what will make it a winning trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPM30.png Size: 85 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #234
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:16am Oct 23, 2014 8:16am
Quoting FX-Jay
Vlad I may have found a good Potential Transient Zone that will be take out in a short amount of time. Can you please help me confirm if its a valid trade? On a serious note, thanks mate for taking some load from the Similarity Thread. You're seriously one of the most selfless helping people around here. I can start see people popping out with some understanding and good ideas. Finally some people are starting to do their homework. Hope the trend continues. Best, Jay {image}
you are a very naive young boy.. think about it son.. is there anyone in the world who can produce these results and why would they? if you dont appear much here in the next weeks i would suppose you got abducted
Don't use both feet to test the depth of the river
  • #235
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:06am Oct 23, 2014 10:06am
Quoting Strawbale
{quote} you are a very naive young boy.. think about it son.. is there anyone in the world who can produce these results and why would they? if you dont appear much here in the next weeks i would suppose you got abducted
Well, he publishes his trades and, if you chose to, you could put in the time to try to work out what he is doing. I think I have worked out a little of it, though I'm not quick enough to cover as many instruments as he can and don't see the whole story.

He doesn't have to do this, it is for no financial gain and in fact takes up time he could spend more profitably. So the main reason he would have for not being here in the next few weeks would be the constant impoliteness and negativity displayed.

If you are not interested, don't have the time or are unable to work it out then there are plenty of other threads on which to spend your time. There are sufficient of us here that would much prefer Jay stayed around so please do not push him away.
  • #236
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:08am Oct 23, 2014 10:08am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Okay... I'm not exactly answering the question directly but here's what I would have done. But then... it's hard to really say I would have done it because, I don't often go to 30M, these tend to be scalps and more importantly I have other things I add to my "secret" in order to filter out trades etc. Anyway, alternating UTZ are something I noticed.... I tend to anticipate them (rightly or wrongly) so they don't necessarily have to be fully formed (ie. right h complete) If you make a comparison between FreeFox and Kprsa indicator you may...
I think where you wrote "what is different about this" (blue text) is the best opportunity ..... may be ? (i pay attention to right tz, almost zero distance).

Quoting burnssss
{quote} and most importantly Money Management!!!
You are right burnssss. Some time i remember this, but some time not
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #237
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:09am Oct 23, 2014 10:09am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Okay... I'm not exactly answering the question directly but here's what I would have done. But then... it's hard to really say I would have done it because, I don't often go to 30M, these tend to be scalps and more importantly I have other things I add to my "secret" in order to filter out trades etc. Anyway, alternating UTZ are something I noticed.... I tend to anticipate them (rightly or wrongly) so they don't necessarily have to be fully formed (ie. right h complete) If you make a comparison between FreeFox and Kprsa indicator you...
Thank you vlady. Now I understand what you mean by "failed retrace", I call this a failed retest of recent highs/lows.

Anyway, need to investigate the pattern on the left side (h_left) you mentioned.
Something I haven't noticed yet. mhh...

To your chart, the blue text "what's different about this?", I see a double top, ie very very thin (or missing) right transient area?
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #238
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:12am Oct 23, 2014 10:12am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} My understanding of the variable k is a price range (pip range, for example 10 pips). You say each k has an appropriate h value so that 97% of prices in that range/zone are h recurrent. Is that what you have found? Or is k something else in your view?
k is positive integer, so 10 pips become 0.0001 in price (double). May be i am wrong ?
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #239
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:25am Oct 23, 2014 10:25am
Quoting burnssss
{quote} and most importantly Money Management!!!
To me it is a big mystery how you guys achieve such stunning high win rate (90+%) by trading TZs with probability calculations.
I don't see how money management can increase win rates. Do you consider stop loss management to MM? Bigger stops reduce the risk:reward ratio.

Of course MM is key if you trade a system with average 50% win rarte. Here at least 1:2 risk:reward is the secret.

Quoting pedma
k is positive integer, so 10 pips become 0.0001 in price (double). May be i am wrong ?
Yes! But you mean 0.0010 for pairs like EUR/USD (10 pips). USD/JPY would be someting like 0.10
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #240
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:41am Oct 23, 2014 10:41am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} To me it is a big mystery how you guys achieve such stunning high win rate (90+%) by trading TZs with probability calculations. I don't see how money management can increase win rates. Do you consider stop loss management to MM? Bigger stops reduce the risk:reward ratio. Of course MM is key if you trade a system with average 50% win rarte. Here at least 1:2 risk:reward is the secret. {quote} Yes! But you mean 0.0010 for pairs like EUR/USD (10 pips). USD/JPY would be someting like 0.10
I clearly can't speak for Fx-Jay whose results are stellar.
But because we're all implementing our understanding of the same elements differently, whilst we can sometimes have the same timing of entries... our performance may not be "efficient" as Van K Tharp would describe.

For example, last night, I made a mistake doing an experiment with Kiwi crosses and I got the relationship wrong for one pair but right on another. The net effect was +87 pips on one trade but -150 on another. No big deal cos I got the diff back on some EU and AU trades. The point is this... the mistake had nothing to do with TZ. I basically, in my rush and lack of concentration whilst commuting, forgot to set SL. As simple as that. Then Kiwi tanked and I panicked and added to a losing trade. Classic Trading Error. Nothing to do with TZ. TZ timing perhaps but.... it's just another tool... it's just another blah blah.

I'm the one who pulls the trigger. I am Money Management. I am Exit Strategy. I am Entry Strategy. I am responsible for the result of the trade. Not the signal.
(Sorry, my teaching tone has come back). I'm revealing this just to show you that we're not infallible. We make mistakes. It's part of trading.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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