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The similarity system

  • #10,841
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:50am Oct 23, 2014 6:50am
I've just closed longs on EU and AU.
I know I should have held on EU but got some things coming up and I don't think I can manage it.

Had some absolute balls-up shocker on NZDUSD.... lost a little chunk on that trying to co-relate with EURNZD.
EN worked... not the other one. Anyway, above trade got it all back.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,842
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:09am Oct 23, 2014 7:09am
Quoting FX-Jay
Get ready for EU to pop (upwards) very soon. I'm fully loaded from 1.264. In case a drop occurs because of the Unemployment claims, I would be buying it. 1st target is 1.2710... much higher targets after that.
Hi FX-Jay,
I notice you make good trade calls.
I assume this one is not based on fundamental analysis, correct?
Is the reasoning based on TZ, Similarity or other TA?
If so, it'd be wonderful to see a picture/chart with explanation.
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #10,843
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:28am Oct 23, 2014 7:28am
This is what i i think FX jay is talking about.

Price is gone way below where it should be, correction will occur soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #10,844
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:36am Oct 23, 2014 7:36am
Quoting Ullen
This is what i i think FX jay is talking about. Price is gone way below where it should be, correction will occur soon. {image}
Hey Ullen,
Is that EUR below and Dollar above?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,845
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:40am Oct 23, 2014 7:40am
Ullen no offense but pls stop putting price out of equation
price itself doing everything you cannt just say it went too far should come back. then you widen your SL
so there is only one thing correct which is the price.
none of the analyses/indicators/etc/etc/etc can be more correct then the price it self


Quoting Ullen
This is what i i think FX jay is talking about. Price is gone way below where it should be, correction will occur soon. {image}
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #10,846
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:43am Oct 23, 2014 7:43am
Quoting Ullen
This is what i i think FX jay is talking about. Price is gone way below where it should be, correction will occur soon. {image}
Now that looks like a more serious setup!
k
  • #10,847
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:44am Oct 23, 2014 7:44am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Looks like we have 2 opposing trades atm, AUD/CAD & EUR/USD For EU my SL is at 1.2647 (slightly above my old entry), I do expect 1.2635 before a push higher, but I wouldn't want to risk waiting and missing the move up. If we go lower, it would be perfect, profits for you & new entries at better prices for me If not, then I'm more than happy with my current position. Let's wait for the Unemployment claims. I'm getting ready for some USD/CAD shorts also.
The market respected my words much faster than expected

Out for now, will be loading soon ... Felling like one big FX pimp
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  • #10,848
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:55am Oct 23, 2014 7:55am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey Ullen, Is that EUR below and Dollar above?
No, its price vs value.

It shows where price should be. In my opinion price is constantly correcting these differencies.

Short term picture (Blue is price, Red is value)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #10,849
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:00am Oct 23, 2014 8:00am
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} Hi FX-Jay, I notice you make good trade calls. I assume this one is not based on fundamental analysis, correct? Is the reasoning based on TZ, Similarity or other TA? If so, it'd be wonderful to see a picture/chart with explanation.
Hey Adel,

For the purpose of this thread and the account I started here, I only use TZ & probability + similarity to a lesser extent.
In general I focus on sentiment analysis (EW, COT, BPR...), that have been my trading style for the last 3 years & I still follow it on my main accounts.

Concerning the chart, I don't do anything different from what is shared here. For this system, I only use the indicators shared here in order to help spot TZ zones and calculate probabilities.

I post my statements here from time to time, so if you would like more visual learning, you can plot my entries/exists/orders on your chart to help see them better.

Best,
Jay
  • #10,850
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:05am Oct 23, 2014 8:05am
Still playing with the TZ concept, now switched to longer TF. I am applying the concept to candle and pattern reading. no math involved. 0 indicators (only candles, which in a way are indicators). the triangles are the entries.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As Above, So Below
  • #10,851
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:21am Oct 23, 2014 8:21am
Quoting tashkent
Still playing with the TZ concept, now switched to longer TF. I am applying the concept to candle and pattern reading. no math involved. 0 indicators (only candles, which in a way are indicators). the triangles are the entries. {image}
Awesome entries!!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,852
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:35am Oct 23, 2014 8:35am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Awesome entries!!
thanks Vlady

this is different TF and self explanatory (trying to show the reason i hold my long and added when price came back). do not you think this recent bullish move was almost certain?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As Above, So Below
  • #10,853
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:37am Oct 23, 2014 8:37am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Adel, For the purpose of this thread and the account I started here, I only use TZ & probability + similarity to a lesser extent. In general I focus on sentiment analysis (EW, COT, BPR...), that have been my trading style for the last 3 years & I still follow it on my main accounts. Concerning the chart, I don't do anything different from what is shared here. For this system, I only use the indicators shared here in order to help spot TZ zones and calculate probabilities. I post my statements here from time to time, so if you would like...
which TF do you use?4H?
thx
  • #10,854
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:47am Oct 23, 2014 8:47am
Quoting blueface
{quote} which TF do you use?4H? thx
Works on all, H4 is my favourite
  • #10,855
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:00am Oct 23, 2014 9:00am
has someone upgraded or repaired indicator, templates from first page or 140 page r-v1 and r-2 and indicator Awesome from templates...has someone it or check it aj upload it? thanks for help guys
  • #10,856
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:10am Oct 23, 2014 9:10am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} thanks Vlady this is different TF and self explanatory (trying to show the reason i hold my long and added when price came back). do not you think this recent bullish move was almost certain? {image}
From a non-TZ, non-Sim perspective, the "hooks" and parabolic moves down to your purple/pink lines were all signs of an upward move post consolidation.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,857
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:39am Oct 23, 2014 9:39am
TZ isnt one dimensional
the probability calculations are not correct

food for thought
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #10,858
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:44am Oct 23, 2014 9:44am
Quoting MAM.Trader
TZ isnt one dimensional the probability calculations are not correct food for thought
Do you have any mathematical proof for this assumption?
  • #10,859
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:49am Oct 23, 2014 9:49am
last tip :
TZ is not the "bar count"
think deeper

Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} Do you have any mathematical proof for this assumption?
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #10,860
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:53am Oct 23, 2014 9:53am
ok the very last one
in theory there shouldnt be any TZ zones. in perfect world.
but there are.
and those getting confirmed or unconfirmed faster or slower then actual way of probability calculation.

the rest is yours.
put "k" into play
its a game changer

Quoting MAM.Trader
last tip : TZ is not the "bar count" think deeper {quote}
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
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