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AUD/USD

  • #85,701
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:39pm Oct 22, 2014 7:39pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} for(s)ex?
Ooooohhh. Hahahahah. Nice one Oz!!
  • #85,702
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:40pm Oct 22, 2014 7:40pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
You guys think she's trading forex? {image}
Dunno, but for some reason, I feel like trading milk futures now.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #85,703
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:47pm Oct 22, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting benaiah
8748 is the bottom of the range. Will not go one pip below it. It will go up from here. I can absolutely guarantee this, unless of course it doesn't work out that way...
You high? It's an either or situation

But yes, it should bounce up nicely from here on. Shall we see a challenge of 0.880x again?
  • #85,704
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:51pm Oct 22, 2014 7:51pm
Quoting jayjb
{quote} You high? It's an either or situation But yes, it should bounce up nicely from here on. Shall we see a challenge of 0.880x again?
Do you seriously not get that I was joking? How could I guarantee anything anyway? Did you also think I was serious about putting lines on my chart to stop the price? Come on now
  • #85,705
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:53pm Oct 22, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting benaiah
8748 is the bottom of the range. Will not go one pip below it. It will go up from here. I can absolutely guarantee this, unless of course it doesn't work out that way...
i think it will break it down like you putting spread on your bread just incase .... i think all longers should get some lubrication for their margin
  • #85,706
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:53pm Oct 22, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Do you seriously not get that I was joking? How could I guarantee anything anyway? Did you also think I was serious about putting lines on my chart to stop the price? Come on now
oh man! you were joking???!!!
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  • #85,707
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:56pm Oct 22, 2014 7:56pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Ooooohhh. Hahahahah. Nice one Oz!!
i think she is from eastern europe..
see pronounce it as forex.. with silent 's'

so if you meet a girl from eastern europe.. and when she said she trade forex for a living.. get the hint bro!
  • #85,708
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:57pm Oct 22, 2014 7:57pm
Jayjb, now you make me wonder if my jokes just aren't funny ]]

Anyway, yep, I think we're headed back up, and expect a breakout long. I posted prior my reasons, price is holding above 20 ma, and correlated positive/negative pairs confirming...
  • #85,709
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:01pm Oct 22, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
You guys think she's trading forex? {image}
  • #85,710
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:09pm Oct 22, 2014 8:09pm
Looking at Daily chart, I'm thinking we'll see a breakout within 2 days, 3 days max. I can absolutely guarantee... oh never mind

Anyway, if we don't see a break out within 2 days, we'll need to re-analyze the pattern, as the price probably will be outside the triangular formation.
  • #85,711
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:13pm Oct 22, 2014 8:13pm
Target is 9360. I figured not much stopped it coming down, so there won't be much stopping it going back up...
  • #85,712
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:16pm Oct 22, 2014 8:16pm
This pair appears to be waiting for some fresh news before it does anything BIG.
  • #85,713
  • Edited 8:37pm Oct 22, 2014 8:20pm | Edited 8:37pm
AUDUSD H4 ??

Reversal or Continuation Pattern ?
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Donde hay Patron no manda Marinero
  • #85,714
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:46pm Oct 22, 2014 8:46pm
Quoting Patron
AUDUSD H4 ?? {image}
Hello. The pattern is interesting and it does give conflicting indications however it sets up better for a a bigger short run. As you can see I have drawn arrows where price reacted to support. The first 3 supports were getting lower and lower (descending). Then 4th support was equal to 3rd support creating what is known as a double bottom. Final two supports were ascending. The last 3 supports connect to create a trendline and all 6 supports appear to create 3 horizontal supports (when connected across). That brings the total of visual supports to 4. The horizontal supports should be more effective since they are lateral (similar price) and have been tested more than once. If the first 2 lateral supports are broken I think this will put a lot of pressure on the double bottom support. Couple that with the weekly trend and I think that will be enough to break through in spectacular fashion.

I don't see a major move (>100 pips) to the upside because of the aforementioned weekly trend and also price is just below 20% retracement level (~0.8863) of multi-decade high.

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  • #85,715
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:55pm Oct 22, 2014 8:55pm
Mitch, what's making the 8750 special? Can't see anything on any TF - am I missing something pls?

Quoting MitchL
Lol it missed my buy @ 0.8750 by a bee's dick so I manually got in at 0.8755 lets see if this magical 0.8750 will hold and force the bounce.. I am still targeting 0.90
  • #85,716
  • Oct 22, 2014 9:00pm Oct 22, 2014 9:00pm
A little clarification on the 20% retracement of multi-decade high...

The 1.108 high of 2011 was the highest AUD/USD had been since 1982.

0.8863/1.108 = 80%

Therefore 0.8863 = 20% retrace from the high.
  • #85,717
  • Oct 22, 2014 9:02pm Oct 22, 2014 9:02pm
Quoting benaiah
..... And GBPAUD is negatively correlated with AUDUSD, and GBPAUD is moving down.....
You serious? Looks more like a inverted HS in H4 timeframe.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #85,718
  • Oct 22, 2014 9:30pm Oct 22, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} You serious? Looks more like a inverted HS in H4 timeframe.
All my analysis was on D1 time frame. GBPAUD is channelling down at the moment from a swing high on 9/29. Big picture doesn't show GBPAUD on an uptrend either, but that's neither here nor there, I'm only looking at what it is doing right now, and assuming it will keep doing what it is doing now for the next few days or weeks.

If something changes, i.e. breakout or reversal, then that would change my analysis. Again, I'm only looking at what is happening now. GBPAUD could channel down for the next 3 weeks, no? Regardless of what formation is there and on what time frame, it doesn't change the fact that right now, it is coming down. Lower lows, and lower highs. You can see this on H4 time frame too, in spite of what pattern is being formed.

Certainly, it's all dynamic, and might look different in few days. But right now, it looks like it looks, and I've drawn my conclusions. We'll see what happens...

Having said all of that, GBPAUD looks like a really good short trade right now. It won't get near 1.8417 before it gets slammed down (my opinion). In fact it is sitting right at resistance as we speak, and could get slammed down any minute. Watch and see if 1.8337 holds it down....
  • #85,719
  • Oct 22, 2014 9:41pm Oct 22, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Hello. The pattern is interesting and it does give conflicting indications however it sets up better for a a bigger short run. As you can see I have drawn arrows where price reacted to support. The first 3 supports were getting lower and lower (descending). Then 4th support was equal to 3rd support creating what is known as a double bottom. Final two supports were ascending. The last 3 supports connect to create a trendline and all 6 supports appear to create 3 horizontal supports (when connected across). That brings the total of visual...
AUDUSD H4

Thanks for your answer.

I expected a similar movement to which I point out in the chart.

This is another way of looking at it. We have a quick wave A, where vendors closed suddenly. Then a B wave triangle shaped symmetrical correcting wave A, or fill many orders, which did not yield the A wave time. Then I lack the C wave, that would seek liquidity to follow later with the weekly trend down, if this were the last vawe corrective, in this complex correction.
Or is another way to convince myself that the correction is not over.
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Donde hay Patron no manda Marinero
  • #85,720
  • Oct 22, 2014 10:20pm Oct 22, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting Patron
{quote} AUDUSD H4 Thanks for your answer. I expected a similar movement to which I point out in the chart. This is another way of looking at it. We have a quick wave A, where vendors closed suddenly. Then a B wave triangle shaped symmetrical correcting wave A, or fill many orders, which did not yield the A wave time. Then I lack the C wave, that would seek liquidity to follow later with the weekly trend down, if this were the last vawe corrective, in this complex correction. Or is another way to convince myself that the correction is not over....
Anything is possible. For me, I try to make an educated guess at what's most likely to happen over a greater period of time. Within 200 pips, either direction is almost as likely as the other. I would still put the odds at slightly over 50% in the trends direction however. In this case we have a major resistance at 0.8863 which I believe is greater than the support from the double bottom on the much smaller time frame. Mix that in with trend direction and the choice is clear for me.
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