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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,861
  • Oct 22, 2014 1:31am Oct 22, 2014 1:31am
I'm thinking bear as well. It's kind of tough to decipher right now. It *could* still be sitting at a level 3 consolidation right now, so an upside move is not out of the question. It had one 110 pip drop earlier in the week, but moved back up about 80ish pips afterwards. But usually after 1 move to either the up or downside, it follows up with another move that way again. Asia did a lot of consolidating today, nearly half of the overall movements of the previous days. So it's looking like it's moving for sure today. I'm just going to keep an eye out for some nice sized PAs, if I don't catch any, I'll just play the bounces when the movement(s) slow(s) down.
  • #14,862
  • Oct 22, 2014 1:53am Oct 22, 2014 1:53am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
I'm thinking bear as well. It's kind of tough to decipher right now. It *could* still be sitting at a level 3 consolidation right now, so an upside move is not out of the question. It had one 110 pip drop earlier in the week, but moved back up about 80ish pips afterwards. But usually after 1 move to either the up or downside, it follows up with another move that way again. Asia did a lot of consolidating today, nearly half of the overall movements of the previous days. So it's looking like it's moving for sure today. I'm just going to keep an eye...
Yeah, could go either way in the s/t - you're right. And yes, playing the range until there's more sizable PA is the way to go IMO.
  • #14,863
  • Oct 22, 2014 3:45am Oct 22, 2014 3:45am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Yeah, could go either way in the s/t - you're right. And yes, playing the range until there's more sizable PA is the way to go IMO.
And sure enough, despite neutral news, the banks pushed it down for its second drop this week. Waiting another 30 minutes before looking for a long entry. Sometimes they like to drop it, let it creep up a bit and suck in some buyers, before dropping it some more.
  • #14,864
  • Oct 22, 2014 4:01am Oct 22, 2014 4:01am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} And sure enough, despite neutral news, the banks pushed it down for its second drop this week. Waiting another 30 minutes before looking for a long entry. Sometimes they like to drop it, let it creep up a bit and suck in some buyers, before dropping it some more.
It has to go up a bit. It's extremely oversold right now; we'll see it go up maybe a couple 10 pips. After that, I guess it's anyone's guess. 172.8 keeps holding as a resistance but GBP/JPY was previously roaring to soar to new highs.....I don't like my intraday options.

We could have another drop after this small reprieve, or we could steadily work our way up to 172.8

Entering now could net me several dozen pips, but I don't like my odds. I'm sitting back right now as well.
  • #14,865
  • Edited 4:19am Oct 22, 2014 4:03am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} It has to go up a bit. It's extremely oversold right now; we'll see it go up maybe a couple 10 pips. After that, I guess it's anyone's guess. 172.8 keeps holding as a resistance but GBP/JPY was previously roaring to soar to new highs.....I don't like my intraday options. We could have another drop after this small reprieve, or we could steadily work our way up to 172.8 Entering now could net me several dozen pips, but I don't like my odds. I'm sitting back right now as well.
oversold ?

check weekly,
I wouldn't even think going long before ~168 level tests-holds /or ~165

172.8 is history now,
that level is rejected.

~ 173 > 175 > 179

~ 170 > 168 > 165
  • #14,866
  • Oct 22, 2014 4:42am Oct 22, 2014 4:42am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} oversold ? check weekly, I wouldn't even think going long before ~168 level tests-holds /or ~165 172.8 is history now, that level is rejected. ~ 173 > 175 > 179 ~ 170 > 168 > 165
I meant in intraday short terms, which is measured by minutes, not hours or days. For example, right now we've seen around a 25pip move upwards since my last post. That was what I was referring to when I said that the pair was extremely oversold-it HAS to move up based on conventional chart rates before making any significant moves. We'd have to see some near apocalyptic event for the chart to suddenly keep crashing 100s of pips within an hour. Considering the GBP news was neutral, we can't.

I said in my post that i "don't like my intraday options". You're looking at it from a longer point of view than me.
  • #14,867
  • Oct 22, 2014 4:42am Oct 22, 2014 4:42am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} oversold ? check weekly, I wouldn't even think going long before ~168 level tests-holds /or ~165 172.8 is history now, that level is rejected. ~ 173 > 175 > 179 ~ 170 > 168 > 165
Rejection yes ... but thus far only a 38.2% drop????? Not saying I disagree, but I would be looking for a rejection around 170.5/6
  • #14,868
  • Oct 22, 2014 4:46am Oct 22, 2014 4:46am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} That was what I was referring to when I said that the pair was extremely oversold-it HAS to move up based on conventional chart rates before making any significant moves.
yeah, that is retracement.

since your last post ~%40 of the H1 candle is recovered, (which is the usual deal)
most probably it will go further down from here. (which is the usual deal)

slow day action like you've said

apart from what you think USD main trend (strength) prevails, and will continue until reversed.
EUR weakness will continue to pressure GBP time from time...

it is not always about the news or technicals.
  • #14,869
  • Oct 22, 2014 5:31am Oct 22, 2014 5:31am
If it keeps doing what it's been doing this week, it should retrace back to somewhere around 172, if it decides to make a third push down as its final big move of the week. Now, whatever news comes out tomorrow could change that, but usually after it makes one push in one direction, it will follow it up with a second one. There still is the chance of a third one to complete a sort of cycle for the week, but it's harder to decipher unless I get some big PA to highlight it.
  • #14,870
  • Oct 22, 2014 5:41am Oct 22, 2014 5:41am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
If it keeps doing what it's been doing this week, it should retrace back to somewhere around 172, if it decides to make a third push down as its final big move of the week. Now, whatever news comes out tomorrow could change that, but usually after it makes one push in one direction, it will follow it up with a second one. There still is the chance of a third one to complete a sort of cycle for the week, but it's harder to decipher unless I get some big PA to highlight it.
Yes. That's exactly what I see (well, I'm sure others do to) - resistance at 172. To me, it may bounces along there for a while. My reason being, there is some more updraft in GBP/USD to come IMO.
  • #14,871
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:12am Oct 22, 2014 7:12am
Jeepers, the pair looks EXTREMELY bearish, (esp should risk aversion crop up) - IMO.
  • #14,872
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:53am Oct 22, 2014 7:53am
Quoting Didgeridoo
Jeepers, the pair looks EXTREMELY bearish, (esp should risk aversion crop up) - IMO.
Agree with you but on M15 this is going to 172.50 again, will sell at 173
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #14,873
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:08am Oct 22, 2014 8:08am
Quoting shivam332
{quote} Agree with you but on M15 this is going to 172.50 again, will sell at 173
Yeah, good move - IMO. I am watching the USD/JPY pair. It has just bounced back from a resistance level - this may mean something for GBP/JPY, should GBP not strengthen significantly as a result of USD potentially lowering.
  • #14,874
  • Oct 22, 2014 10:17am Oct 22, 2014 10:17am
100 pips from that 172 sell. Bearish. We will see lower highs and lower highs until 161 emerges. 173.50 will be the next sell zone. Trade wisely.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,875
  • Oct 22, 2014 10:56am Oct 22, 2014 10:56am
Quoting shivam332
{quote} Agree with you but on M15 this is going to 172.50 again, will sell at 173
TP hit
Now looking for sell @ 173 or above depending on the market.
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #14,876
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:41am Oct 23, 2014 6:41am
Range looks evermore compressed. May have another violent breakout, perhaps.
  • #14,877
  • Edited 8:10am Oct 23, 2014 7:50am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Shall we make a little contest here to see how many people for BULL/BEAR ? MPT - Are you on bear side ? FX-Ray - Are you on the bull side ? Workingforex - Is on the bull side. PS Add: Its just for a healthy discussion, adjusting your position according to situation needed, also disclaimer added. {image}
Are you still long from decision point 168.00?

Add:
We are close to DP 173.40/20; as soon as it gets printed you should adjust your stops aggressively, lock as many pips as possible, risk is increasing there. We might get a reversal or a continuation and thats probably gonna happen fast. So be careful.

Add(2): Consider this post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post7811721), good luck
  • #14,878
  • Edited 8:11am Oct 23, 2014 8:09am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Are you still long from decision point 168.00? Add: We are close to DP 173.40/20; as soon as it gets printed you should adjust your Stops, lock as many pips as possible, risk is increasing there. We might get a reversal or a continuation and thats probably gonna happen fast. So be careful. Add(2): Consider this post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post7811721), good luck
Criterias for your stop-adjustment:

Decision Point(Price lower boundary) - ATR(24h) - Uncertainty-fraction - Average Spread = Your SL

(173.20) - 0.14 - 0.14 - 0.015= 172.905
  • #14,879
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:13am Oct 23, 2014 8:13am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote}We are close to DP 173.40/20; as soon as it gets printed you should adjust your Stops, lock as many pips as possible, risk is increasing there. We might get a reversal or a continuation and thats probably gonna happen fast. So be careful.
Is that a heads and shoulders pattern I'm seeing around that price (173.40/20) in the daily chart? Considering a short around 173.5 with SL at the 174 mark.
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  • #14,880
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:17am Oct 23, 2014 8:17am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Is that a heads and shoulders pattern I'm seeing around that price (173.40/20) in the daily chart? Considering a short around 173.5 with SL at the 174 mark. {image}
I didnt pay attention to a head and shoulder formation but you should be careful with your sell limit order, did you consider it might get straight through (Risk Mangement?), if it does I aim 176.40/20. Anyway, it might reverse there but 8.00 Lots in front of a runaway train?
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