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AUD/USD

  • #85,501
  • Oct 21, 2014 5:42pm Oct 21, 2014 5:42pm
Can please someone tell me that what way aud news will go
Buy or sell??
  • #85,502
  • Oct 21, 2014 5:45pm Oct 21, 2014 5:45pm
I'd like to think that this is what's currently underway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-10-21 at 6.44.32 PM.png Size: 264 KB
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #85,503
  • Oct 21, 2014 6:12pm Oct 21, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
I'd like to think that this is what's currently underway. {image}
Interesting. As you probably already realize, I'm waiting for the breakout to happen in my little world

I tend to adhere a little stricter to trend lines, in my trading world, if a trend line is broken, it's no longer valid, unless the price shows it will respect it again, and I need at least 2 respectful hits on it to recognize it as valid.

I'm no diamond pattern expert, but who really is, as I believe they are pretty rare? Anyway, my diamond is not as perfectly formed, but I go more by the trend lines, and general rules of ranging price and breakout scenarios...

But in my scenario, I'll expect one more touch at least on the bottom. Why? Well, it will look more pretty that way without all the empty space Just kidding. I only think it will touch down once more because of bearish momentum on my perceived failed bullish breakout...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 91 KB
  • #85,504
  • Oct 21, 2014 6:16pm Oct 21, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Interesting. As you probably already realize, I'm waiting for the breakout to happen in my little world I tend to adhere a little stricter to trend lines, in my trading world, if a trend line is broken, it's no longer valid, unless the price shows it will respect it again, and I need at least 2 respectful hits on it to recognize it as valid. I'm no diamond pattern expert, but who really is, as I believe they are pretty rare? Anyway, my diamond is not as perfectly formed, but I go more by the trend lines, and general rules of ranging price...
I definitely see your point there. I think diamonds are indeed pretty rare indeed, which is why I'm really curious to see how this sucker plays out. Whelp, gotta just let the market do its thing. Good luck!
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #85,505
  • Oct 21, 2014 6:32pm Oct 21, 2014 6:32pm
For a little while there it looked like a retrace might happen when T2 & T3 closed higher than T1, along with B2 closing higher than B1. Then T4, T5 and T6 couldn't make it back to T3 price and now it's looking heavy...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4 (3).png Size: 35 KB
  • #85,506
  • Oct 21, 2014 6:40pm Oct 21, 2014 6:40pm
The last couple of economic CPI reports from Australia have each come lower and lower.
The forecast is about what it will be reported which should make the aussie strengthen.
I think the right play here is to not have a position and short it when it peaks or buy it when it bottoms
  • #85,507
  • Oct 21, 2014 6:41pm Oct 21, 2014 6:41pm
One thing I didn't mention in my chat above, is that I also give equal precedence to horizontal levels. I didn't show this on my chart, but I'd be cautious concluding there is a breakout unless we have a clear break above 8842, i.e. NY daily close...
  • #85,508
  • Oct 21, 2014 6:54pm Oct 21, 2014 6:54pm
Quoting yeniful
The last couple of economic CPI reports from Australia have each come lower and lower. The forecast is about what it will be reported which should make the aussie strengthen. I think the right play here is to not have a position and short it when it peaks or buy it when it bottoms
Sounds like good advice
  • #85,509
  • Edited 7:07pm Oct 21, 2014 6:57pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting yeniful
The last couple of economic CPI reports from Australia have each come lower and lower. The forecast is about what it will be reported which should make the aussie strengthen...
No, actually the forecast points to weak numbers or I must be missing something. Check this http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=-4&sort=date&week=today&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&1high=true&medium=true&low=true

More info about it
  • #85,510
  • Oct 21, 2014 6:58pm Oct 21, 2014 6:58pm
Thing is, everyone is already expecting crappy numbers, so what's the shock in that?
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #85,511
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:02pm Oct 21, 2014 7:02pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I wouldn't count on that being the case well into the Asian session. Idk if its just me but over the last 72 hours there seems to have been a pretty big disagreement with this pair between Asia -> ... .
Right, I think I'm just gonna grab whatever I can from the CPI reports given I think it might push to more bearishness and get covered and call it a night. Or it just may whipsaw since there's a few other numbers that give rise to bullishnes. Not sure how this will pan out.
  • #85,512
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:07pm Oct 21, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Thing is, everyone is already expecting crappy numbers, so what's the shock in that?
exactly!
THATS WHY IM LONG RIGHT NOW. NUMBERS ARE SO POOR AND EXPECTED THAT ANY THING AT .4 OR HIGHER WILL BUMP IT UP
  • #85,513
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:11pm Oct 21, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Thing is, everyone is already expecting crappy numbers, so what's the shock in that?
I'm thinking bearish hourly candle close means the print will be higher, or at the least match forecast.
Enter Signature
  • #85,514
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:12pm Oct 21, 2014 7:12pm
another thing. If the dollar index retraces aussie will be above .90 for sure.
just think about that
  • #85,515
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:21pm Oct 21, 2014 7:21pm
Quoting yeniful
{quote} exactly! THATS WHY IM LONG RIGHT NOW. NUMBERS ARE SO POOR AND EXPECTED THAT ANY THING AT .4 OR HIGHER WILL BUMP IT UP
My opinion on scheduled news reports is that they are a coin flip. Without knowing the positions of all market participants, especially large players, there is no way to really know how the market will react with everyone's expectations. That is why after major news releases you have traders complaining and posting on this forum that they are dumbfounded by the market reaction. The best type of news to trade is that which is unscheduled and therefore unexpected. No one is planning for this result or that result.
  • #85,516
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:22pm Oct 21, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting yeniful
another thing. If the dollar index retraces aussie will be above .90 for sure. just think about that
What if it doesn't retrace? Think about that.
  • #85,517
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:24pm Oct 21, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} My opinion on scheduled news reports is that they are a coin flip. Without knowing the positions of all market participants, especially large players, there is no way to really know how the market will react with everyone's expectations. That is why after major news releases you have traders complaining and posting on this forum that they are dumbfounded by the market reaction. The best type of news to trade is that which is unscheduled and therefore unexpected. No one is planning for this result or that result.
That is absolutely true, 2+2. It is usually hilarious to read people's reactions to the market's reaction to news. Its simply something that can not be predicted, so people have to deal with it.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #85,518
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:27pm Oct 21, 2014 7:27pm
meanwhile, the price says, "I think I'll go up when no one is looking"
  • #85,519
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:32pm Oct 21, 2014 7:32pm
gonna go out on a limb and predict a really big pin bar on the H4 chart in a half hour. Wonder if that will give the bulls the fuel they need?
  • #85,520
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:33pm Oct 21, 2014 7:33pm
Quoting benaiah
gonna go out on a limb and predict a really big pin bar on the H4 chart in a half hour. Wonder if that will give the bulls the fuel they need?
Hope so. I would love to see the diamond play out like textbook.
There's always money in the banana stand.
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