DislikedUnfortunately for the bulls, now in bear territory (top of the range)...Ignored
There's always money in the banana stand.
- #85,422
- Oct 21, 2014 9:06am Oct 21, 2014 9:06am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
{quote} Yes, but there is a lot of kinetic energy set to break out of the range to the upside...guess the news event tonight will be a thruster. Diamond already broken once to the upside.
Any bullish look to the price this close to the top of the range, but below the boundary doesn't seem conclusive to me. Easy to pull buyers in. The same thing happened to anyone who went short on that huge daily pin bar. Looked really pretty, but it was inside a range, and no room to go.
Outside of the range, moving away from it, then the bullish candles will mean something to me. But bullish candles in front of a brick wall just look like bulls ready to get broken when they hit it...
Or course, just my opinion
- #85,428
- Oct 21, 2014 9:34am Oct 21, 2014 9:34am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
{quote} I hear ya, Ben. Always good to get other opinions. This is how I'm seeing it for now. Of course, all is just speculation until something actually happens definitively. {image}
The issue I see with that 3 break scenario is that holding above 8803 is only the first hurdle. And it is struggling with it at the moment, just barely above it as I write this (just checked again and fell through 8803 for the moment). There's 8829, then 8860. So far it has rejected 8829 and not even coming close to 8860.
For this thing to break out on the upside, we would have a clearly decisive move up through all of this. Can it happen, yes anything can. But right now, it is not showing that decisiveness... It is simply running out of steam as the bulls bounce off of that brick wall...
- #85,431
- Oct 21, 2014 9:56am Oct 21, 2014 9:56am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
Gotcha. Looks to me like the thrust to break through the range happened already and now we are consolidating until the news tonight to break higher. At any rate, should be some decisive motion one way or another. {image}
Right now the price is not in a trend, and there is no direction. Last 4 candles on the H4 chart including the current one that is not finished yet show consolidation. Plus if you look at the price horizontally, has it been here before recently? If so, then not a break out yet. Could it eventually break out? Of course. But I just don't see how it has broken out already.
Your turn
- #85,433
- Oct 21, 2014 10:01am Oct 21, 2014 10:01am
- Joined Jan 2005 | Status: Grizzled Member | 848 Posts
I guess what I am seeing is a breakout above the trend line in the above figure as well as higher and higher lows being printed since October 12th after being rejected from these levels. The market was thrown down less and less as perhaps buyers showed more and more interest at higher levels. And looking at the closes, it just seems that the springy buying pressure is really pressing the upside of this range now and just needs a proper catalyst (CPI perhaps) to finish the job. That and the fact that I enjoy pretty diamond patterns.
There's always money in the banana stand.
- #85,438
- Oct 21, 2014 10:17am Oct 21, 2014 10:17am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
Looks like it will drop like a stone shortly. To me anyway
- #85,440
- Oct 21, 2014 10:22am Oct 21, 2014 10:22am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,059 Posts
{quote} Then you would get this, which butts us up right on the line. Personally, I prefer "best fit" trend lines like in the previous image, since to me they are more meaningful, as they touch more places where price actually traded for some time, as opposed to price extremes that may have only been touched for 10 seconds. Just a personal preference. {image}