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My realtime account journal

  • #81
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:35am Oct 13, 2014 1:35am
What i was trying to convey above is this::

...should price in the 4hr chart of this trading station close green/up or even better...close with an Engulfing Candle than i will close my current Short taken off the Daily Chart and enter Long taken off the 4hr for entry & Weekly for direction.
  • #82
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:45am Oct 13, 2014 1:45am
Updating our Short Candidates for this Week:

Sending in Short probes into both AUDUSD + NZDUSD is in order now.
Check intraday TF's for reference.
  • #83
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:06am Oct 13, 2014 2:06am
add GBPUSD to that Shorting List of probes, observe your strategy or monitor mine, should u wish.
  • #84
  • Oct 14, 2014 2:29am Oct 14, 2014 2:29am
Quoting mima
{quote} Thank you. Which bar on chart is EEB and which one is EFB specifically?
The above quote is from the Loonie- USDCAD- thread page 320 which i'm answering herein my journal because the explanation below refers to the USDJPY pair.


mima,

i apologise for not being clear in my explanation. Please focus on the following and forget about the EEB & EFB
...what is important is the trade Setup and not so much a specific bar,
...the lefthand chart is the Weekly and the Daily Chart is obviously the other one on the right,
...this what i do when i look at FX pairs or any other instrument that can be bought and sold,if i intend holding for several days or weeks or even several months.

  1. weekly trend ??? is it clearly Up ? Yes, it is clearly UP...now drop down a Timeframe [TF].
  2. if i have to think about or reason with myself as to the direction then its not up. If No the weekly trend is not up then i abstain from trading this pair.
  3. if Yes, the weekly trend is up then i drop down a TF to the Daily chart. here i want to see several down days or several LH's [Lower Highs], at least 4 including the current or last day which may be a reversal or up day.
  4. look at my Daily chart of the USDJPY pair now, there are 8 LH's and the last or current bar at the time of taking the snapshot was forming a green or up bar. when i see this i'm putting this pair on my watch list because i'm anticipating to go long should an UP day form..
  5. PLEASE NOTE::.doesn't matter when your trading station day ends and when the new day starts, i'm saying, AT the Close of TRADING Day of the chart or broker i'm using i check to see if the day closed up, if Yes then i enter a long probe. if No, then i will check again 24hrs later at the Close of Trading Day.
  6. should the day closed green then i will enter buy and i will continue to buy or stack as long as the PA follows the weekly trend which may be for several days or several weeks.
  7. maybe by the end of the trading week on Friday, i have 5 long entries i may then close the last 3 to smooth my equity curve.
  8. that's it.​
  9. Summary:
  10. ...Weekly is clearly Up, drop down to Daily.
  11. ...Look for at least 4 LH's or down bars, when u have that,
  12. ...wait for a +BRB [Bullish Reversal Bar] to CLOSE, when u have that enter long probe.
  13. ...anticipate to be in the trade for several days,
  14. ....pyramid when u your method gives you new buy signals.
  15. ...close and bank some trades after 3 or 4 days or by Friday, leave at least one open position with StopLoss at breakeven plus spread should you so wish.

Reverse the above for Shorts.

Do u see the current Short on the Chart ? That short was taken when i had the Daily as my Trend Direction.
So when do i intend closing that short trade you may ask ? When i get a +BRB on the Daily i may close it, please don't fixate on that trade...it's immaterial to this discussion.

Attached Image
  • #85
  • Oct 14, 2014 11:53pm Oct 14, 2014 11:53pm
Closed my Loonie long a few minutes ago, after my morning 2 cups of coffee.

Did anything change in my analysis of the pair to warrant this action ?
...No, Trend is still firmly intact.

Then why would you close out your profitable trade in an unchanged Up trend ?, one may ask.
...i'm expecting a small retracement today so i intend to re-enter after the dip plus i feel the need to top-up my account equity.

here are 2 charts of the Daily and the 4hr taken from FXCM Trading Station called Marketscope. the arrows are automatically inserted by the software upon entering and exit {green if trade ended in a gain and red if trade resulted in Loss}, and if u hover your mouse pointer over one of the arrows than a green line [if made gains, red if a loss was incurred] is drawn automatically.
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Cls Wed 15Oct2014.png Size: 31 KB
  • #86
  • Oct 15, 2014 1:57am Oct 15, 2014 1:57am
Here is the Update of our watched pair, the USDJPY. this time i've replaced the Weekly and included the 4hr chart and my recommendation is as follows;

...for a buy or long, wait until the current 4hr bar close green or up then buy the pair
...this is not a daytrade, should price move in our anticipated direction be prepared for a trade that last several days maybe even weeks.
...should the downtrend continue, get out
...be prepared for wide price swings to shake out the weak hands,
...having said that, around the 170.80 area- that's around the top of that green box on the DAILY chart- i anticipate a shakeout around that zone,
...so u can take take profit there if u like and re-enter long maybe 4 to 8 hrs later when PA indicates a resumption of upTrend or u may choose to pyramid.
...good luck and observe your rules should you take the trade.
...lastly, i've closed that short trade for a little over 55 pips gain.
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  • #87
  • Oct 15, 2014 2:42am Oct 15, 2014 2:42am
i'm currently monitoring the EURGBP pair for a possible end to it's current Uptrend in the Daily, may happen today or maybe tomorrow if i'm correct in my anticipation, if not, obviously the Uptrend will continue.
  • #88
  • Oct 15, 2014 5:43am Oct 15, 2014 5:43am
Quoting sunshine
Closed my Loonie long a few minutes ago, after my morning 2 cups of coffee. Did anything change in my analysis of the pair to warrant this action ? ...No, Trend is still firmly intact. Then why would you close out your profitable trade in an unchanged Up trend ?, one may ask. ...i'm expecting a small retracement today so i intend to re-enter after the dip plus i feel the need to top-up my account equity. here are 2 charts of the Daily and the 4hr taken from FXCM Trading Station called Marketscope. the arrows are automatically inserted by the software...
nice trade...
but im still in this trade... and i believe i might come down but overall its up... more 150pip ...
but nice to see your work ... i liked it...
i dont like short term trading ... i love to stay in market for couple of days .... and u have same trading style i think...
best of luck ...
  • #89
  • Oct 16, 2014 2:47am Oct 16, 2014 2:47am
thank you H4 and u are welcome

what a wild ride it was yesterday, the Loonie retraced much deeper than i anticipated but i think it wants to give us a better long entry from here.
what surprised me was the fall of the USDJPY pair, maybe it is has the same idea than USDCAD so i'm monitoring its price bars in Daily.
Also monitoring the Ozzie, Kiwi, Cable and EurUsd, as well as the EURGBP for dwntrend resumption or sideways consolidation.
What are your readings of All the charts that you are monitoring.

PS: of all my live accounts, i think i will base all my trades of this FXCM account that this journal is dedicated too, off the Daily charts of the Oanda demo account that i have running on my fone {i do have FXCM's andriod trading station on my fone too.}
somehow i find myself in trades, instead of wishing i was in them on the oanda demo...now that tells me a few things, such as...throughout the day i find it easier to open that trading station and check for new entries or check that the original entry premise is still valid...than i either enter a new trade or close a trade that's causing me to doubt and 2ndly i just love that piece of software, pity about the higher leverage required. also can't take trades in the opposite in a smaller TF bcz hedging is not allowed, but that not how i use it, i.e. i can keep my original long trade on while taking advantage of an intraday retracement against that long position-meaning entering a short-...than close when i see its steam evaporating...but as i say that doesn't bother me only the small 50:1 leverage do}
  • #90
  • Oct 16, 2014 2:58am Oct 16, 2014 2:58am
like all that sharp beautiful moves in the Yen pairs and in EURGBP and Russel 2000 and the Dow and even in GOLD and Oil participated in all their runs. of the 34 positions that i participated in i only had 3 in tiny loss, and even than their original direction was still intact according to the Daily TF after i checked whether i should close them or not. it really does wonders for confidence building.

i intend posting a few sceenshots.
  • #91
  • Oct 16, 2014 4:31am Oct 16, 2014 4:31am
the following screenshots is from Wednesday 1st Oct. to and including today, 16 OCT...a period of 12 trading days. images are for the 1st, 12th and today the 16th Oct. FOCUS on the REALISED Profit and Unrealised or Floating Profit
the idea is to convince myself to trade this tiny account from the perspective of only having the Daily TF as my largest Tf, this means that trades should be taken from that direction and not from the Weekly as some of my other accounts. What this will force me to do is that i have to trade only what see in my daily charts, not the weeklies, thus trading what i see and not what i wish to see.

the intention is to keep doing the pruning every monday morning, harvest some fruits, cut away dead non-performing branches and nurturing new growth. . as well as planting new seeds in hopefully fertile ground.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2014-10-12-13-47-13.png Size: 197 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2014-10-16-10-08-41.png Size: 247 KB
  • #92
  • Oct 16, 2014 4:53am Oct 16, 2014 4:53am
forgot to mention that the entry one can see on the last image is the summarised or averaged position entry, for example looking at Gold it reflects 200 units but its actually 2 short entries at 2 different price levels at 2 different days.
  • #93
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:01am Oct 18, 2014 2:01am
below are the 2 pairs which, for me, have safest directional probability of all the pairs that i have reviewed.

for Longs;
...the USDCAD pair also known as the Loonie

for shorts;
...the AUDUSD pair also known as the Ozzie.

charts to follow.

how to engage ?
i would enter off 4hr tf- meaning, as u would know if u read up on the way i trade, for buys...wait until an Up bar is completed then enter.

what about stoploss ? [SL]
sorry i can't help u but i can let u in on what i do, i don't have a SL entered.

what about a profit target ? {PT}
again, same as above, i don't have a PT entered.
  • #94
  • Oct 18, 2014 4:43am Oct 18, 2014 4:43am
Below is what i answered duderoo on the USDCAD thread on a question that he posed on Thursday the 16th.

Quoting duderoo1
{quote} If CAD drops perhaps a buying opportunity?
Hello duderoo...
i see u from the old country as am i, which province are u in ? as u can see from my profile i'm in KZN, Durbs.

anyway back to trading and your question...a few days later...Yes, buy when the Loonie drops, the question is when to buy as it drops ? right ?...my point is...2 trading days after your question my answer is still the same.

...please take careful note of the following;

  1. in an established trend such as this one, you can basically buy everytime after an Up day, Why ? one may ask. well, the incoming tide lifts all boats in the harbour so will it be with your long/s that u entered.
  2. i intend to elaborate deeper along these lines in my journal, should u be interested.

​

  1. ok, lets continue where we left of in the USDCAD thread because this discussion slots in with my earlier post on Longs and Shorts for the week, but i will focus on the long pair which is the Loonie.
  2. please focus now::
  3. take a look on the Daily Chart, that's the middle one, there are 23 trading days clearly visible...lets take an example to illustrate the Incoming Tide Concept [ITC] or Rising Tide Concept-RTC

  1. this concept requires a Weekly UpTrend.
  2. should u have entered after every Up day than all of your positions would have been in profit except one, the one entered after the close of daily bar of 14th Oct...meaning, that position would have been entered on the next day, the 15th. right ?
  3. that's it !!! no magic !!! only the Incoming Tide=Weekly Trend=Rising Tide=ease of mind=profitable trader.
  4. no secret indicators ? no mysterious interpretation ? No Flash and Mirrors ? sorry i'm getting carried away..no smoke and mirrors...couldn't resist. BUT...can i let u in on a counter-intuitive entry that will expand your trading account and smooth out your equity curve...??? Lets see by a show of hands if we can get at least 5 traders interested, 8 sounds better. than i shall continue.

reverse for a Weekly Down Trend

​here are 2 charts, don't stress should your bars differ.

Attached Image
  • #95
  • Oct 19, 2014 1:10pm Oct 19, 2014 1:10pm
adding USDJPY to the pair to be traded from the long side this week and
EURGBP to be trade from the short side, infact i have already entered short the week past

note: both of these pairs were signalled for trades from their respective Monthly Charts.

i am including the 4hr chart of the EURGBP below

PS: anyone that wants to post their own charts to show their trades are welcome to do so., i don't expect all traders to agree with my analysis and that's just fine by me...we are all different and may have different holding periods and interpretations, so go ahead.
Attached Image
  • #96
  • Oct 19, 2014 1:22pm Oct 19, 2014 1:22pm
and here, below is the Daily Chart of the USDCAD pair.
2 of those long trades are currently in a loss.
Attached Image
  • #97
  • Oct 20, 2014 4:11am Oct 20, 2014 4:11am
Quoting sunshine
Below is what i answered duderoo on the USDCAD thread on a question that he posed on Thursday the 16th. {quote} Hello duderoo... i see u from the old country as am i, which province are u in ? as u can see from my profile i'm in KZN, Durbs. {image}
Hi Sunshine, from the Cape Town, glad to meet a fellow country men
  • #98
  • Oct 21, 2014 12:03am Oct 21, 2014 12:03am
likewise duderoo

yesterday was a churning action on the Loonie, almost ended up where it started
...Daily trend is still up and it appears as if the 30mins and 1hr is preparing for a DSC patternsetup meaning a fast sharp move down than a reversal up into the Daily trend.

USDJPY didn't pan out as anticipated
...Daily trend is down and yesterday formed a bearish bar so shorts should be the order of the day. charts to follow later.
  • #99
  • Edited 8:34pm Oct 21, 2014 1:31am | Edited 8:34pm
as a study i'm presenting 2x1hr charts of the USDCHF & USDJPY pairs
...notice that the PA on both is similar, however, there is a major difference higher up,
...the Daily trends of both are in opposite directions,

  1. USDCHF Daily trend is DOWN, whereas the {EDIT:: my sincerest apologies, i was referring to the USDCHF and NOT USDCAD...this the reason for this edit...corrected the mistake as can be seen from the posted charts}
  2. USDJPY Daily is UP

what to do ?
...since i do not know for sure what may occur, i intend probing both pairs for longs,
...but with a smaller size on the yen pair...just a nod to say, i see your Daily trend but i'm saluting the Weekly with this long probe.

Attached Image
  • #100
  • Edited 1:57am Oct 21, 2014 1:47am | Edited 1:57am
Crude Oil, CADCHF & AUDCHF are all marked for Shorts whereas the EURUSD & EURAUD are marked for long entries for today.

got to step away now for a few hours (customers want their rabbit orders) , intend checking in later.
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