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AUD/USD

  • #85,341
  • Oct 20, 2014 5:36pm Oct 20, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting scottik187
If this Chinese data is poor I think we will see a heavy drop in the AUD. This symmetrical triangle has consolidated the big run down, and I'm looking for the next leg.
all way to .85 :nerd:
  • #85,342
  • Oct 20, 2014 5:44pm Oct 20, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting scottik187
If this Chinese data is poor I think we will see a heavy drop in the AUD. This symmetrical triangle has consolidated the big run down, and I'm looking for the next leg.
Any ideas on Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes mate?
  • #85,343
  • Oct 20, 2014 5:49pm Oct 20, 2014 5:49pm
The end of year forecasts from major banks is still .90
I think we will see a test of that on this retraction
long 2 lots @ 87.60
long 4 lots @ 87.80
  • #85,344
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:17pm Oct 20, 2014 6:17pm
7.3% is a tricky number, lower than prev, higher than expectation... if it is...
  • #85,345
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:17pm Oct 20, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting Karpa
{quote} Any ideas on Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes mate?
Not really, but there hasn't really been any surprises in the last few months. They might talk about house prices being overheated here in Aus, and there was a bunch of talk from RBA staffers over the last month about how they still think the AUD is overvalued. However I seriously doubt if that they'll change their statement on interest rates, they've been saying the same thing since the last rate cut.
  • #85,346
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:26pm Oct 20, 2014 6:26pm
AUS ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (OCT 19) is 111.6 lower than the previous value (113.8).
Will AUD drop?
  • #85,347
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:31pm Oct 20, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting scottik187
{quote} Not really, but there hasn't really been any surprises in the last few months. They might talk about house prices being overheated here in Aus, and there was a bunch of talk from RBA staffers over the last month about how they still think the AUD is overvalued. However I seriously doubt if that they'll change their statement on interest rates, they've been saying the same thing since the last rate cut.
Here is the thing, the G20 countries' house price is going up. If they cut rate or stay at current low level, house price will climb even higher and quicker. If they increase rate, of coz can cool down the house market but also hurts other fragile industries

FED begin to realize they can't do any more to help economy growing and balancing, but they can do something bad to economy. no mention RBA, small eco- entity has already lost the war of currency.

I don't care what RBA says, I only care policy and data from CHINA and US that impact AUD a lot.
  • #85,348
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:31pm Oct 20, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting farhanzaveri
A/U will definitely be the pair to watch this evening. Below you can see a symmetrical triangle formation has formed, along with two bear gartley's formed above the triangle. Smart money, will initially break the triangle long, trapping the herd. Once they take the opposite side of the longs (short) they will turn around and push this thing down. The horizontal lines are where I will be entering short, as that is the where the harmonic patterns complete. This is just my opinion. If you take a look at GBP/AUD you will see it is consolidating forming...
Interesting, what about EUR/AUD in this mix?
Enter Signature
  • #85,349
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:33pm Oct 20, 2014 6:33pm
Quoting roger44
AUS ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (OCT 19) is 111.6 lower than the previous value (113.8). Will AUD drop?
as we speak...
  • #85,350
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:44pm Oct 20, 2014 6:44pm
Quoting zew
{quote} Here is the thing, the G20 countries' house price is going up. If they cut rate or stay at current low level, house price will climb even higher and quicker. If they increase rate, of coz can cool down the house market but also hurts other fragile industries FED begin to realize they can't do any more to help economy growing and balancing, but they can do something bad to economy. no mention RBA, small eco- entity has already lost the war of currency. I don't care what RBA says, I only care policy and data from CHINA and US that impact AUD...
RBA isn't going to increase rates, Aussie's are taking on massive mortgage debts and any rate rise now will put the breaks hard on an economy that people believe is floundering. The RBA is looking at a variety of other measures to dampen investor interest in the housing market.

Obviously USD and CNY data is more important, but the RBA still moves the market when it has something of note to say.
  • #85,351
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:48pm Oct 20, 2014 6:48pm
Quoting scottik187
{quote} RBA isn't going to increase rates, Aussie's are taking on massive mortgage debts and any rate rise now will put the breaks hard on an economy that people believe is floundering. The RBA is looking at a variety of other measures to dampen investor interest in the housing market. Obviously USD and CNY data is more important, but the RBA still moves the market when it has something of note to say.
I heard that it's also very large foreign interest in Aussie housing market that is driving up prices, and so a rate rise can't be ruled out of the equation to cool this. But there was chatter of "macroprudential" approaches taking precedence first and foremost.
Enter Signature
  • #85,352
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:56pm Oct 20, 2014 6:56pm

  1. AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
  2. China GDP release today.

Asian market would be fairly volatility today.

Good luck.

If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #85,353
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:57pm Oct 20, 2014 6:57pm
Quoting san99
{quote} I heard that it's also very large foreign interest in Aussie housing market that is driving up prices, and so a rate rise can't be ruled out of the equation to cool this. But there was chatter of "macroprudential" approaches taking precedence first and foremost.
Yeah apparently there is ... however it's hard to tell if that's real or if it's just the Aussie media playing the Xenophobic card in order to get more clicks.
  • #85,354
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:57pm Oct 20, 2014 6:57pm
Looks like a somewhat of a double bottom on the weekly..and the daily around 0.8650
Although we trading within a tri-angle that increasingly looking more bullish short term..
I'm not home at the moment but will post a chart soon to clarify..
  • #85,355
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:03pm Oct 20, 2014 7:03pm
Quoting farhanzaveri
A/U will definitely be the pair to watch this evening. Below you can see a symmetrical triangle formation has formed, along with two bear gartley's formed above the triangle. Smart money, will initially break the triangle long, trapping the herd. Once they take the opposite side of the longs (short) they will turn around and push this thing down. The horizontal lines are where I will be entering short, as that is the where the harmonic patterns complete. This is just my opinion. If you take a look at GBP/AUD you will see it is consolidating forming...
good analysis, but the charte is too complicate to read

thank you
  • #85,356
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:24pm Oct 20, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting scottik187
{quote} Not really, but there hasn't really been any surprises in the last few months. They might talk about house prices being overheated here in Aus, and there was a bunch of talk from RBA staffers over the last month about how they still think the AUD is overvalued. However I seriously doubt if that they'll change their statement on interest rates, they've been saying the same thing since the last rate cut.
Sorry I was away.. less than 10 minutes for the meeting to begin now
  • #85,357
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:31pm Oct 20, 2014 7:31pm
Waiting for the hourly close...
  • #85,358
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:33pm Oct 20, 2014 7:33pm
No real surprises in the minutes, but i only quickly scanned.
  • #85,359
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:46pm Oct 20, 2014 7:46pm
waiting for china
  • #85,360
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:04pm Oct 20, 2014 8:04pm
Hourly close is bearish. Though focus is on the Chinese data, the close makes it look like the market is gearing up for a bullish push.
Enter Signature
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