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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #21
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:24am Oct 20, 2014 8:24am
Quoting burnssss
Okei, you're right. But I see in this thread the possibility of moving into a great concept. Thread of similarity I think is mixing. A new thread where people can take to further progress. Maybe you're right with optimal value and correct value. The difference is time. For the first time in life I saw how an indicator work in all time frames, all pairs .... Universality. That's the difference between optimal and correct?
Just to expand on this Burnsss, I would love to have people contribute to this train of thought back in the Similarity Thread.
But instead we get more requests for help, where are indicators, what does transient mean, what h should I use, etc etc that we don't get to talk about the good stuff.
Hopefully by doing this, I can get people who are in need of guidance to come here first and then hopefully contribute back on the Sim thread.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #22
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:27am Oct 20, 2014 8:27am
I did not say that:
"I do not agree Necessarily That having the best setting will give you the best results.
That's a completely different proposition altogether. People are different. "
Only the difference between optimal and correct. Clearly, the results depend on the person, their philosophy and strategy.
Anyway, I fully support this thread.
Thank you very much Vlady
  • #23
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:29am Oct 20, 2014 8:29am
Quoting burnssss
I did not say that: "I do not agree Necessarily That having the best setting will give you the best results. That's a completely different proposition altogether. People are different. " Only the difference between optimal and correct. Clearly, the results depend on the person, their philosophy and strategy. Anyway, I fully support this thread. Thank you very much Vlady
No worries buddy!
Don't get me wrong, though. I wasn't criticizing you. I just wanted to be really clear to the newcomers here that the results of their trading is still their responsibility, whether they have the Best Setting or one that is tailored for them.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #24
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:30am Oct 20, 2014 8:30am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Just to expand on this Burnsss, I would love to have people contribute to this train of thought back in the Similarity Thread. But instead we get more requests for help, where are indicators, what does transient mean, what h should I use, etc etc that we don't get to talk about the good stuff. Hopefully by doing this, I can get people who are in need of guidance to come here first and then hopefully contribute back on the Sim thread.
Totally agree with you
  • #25
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:08am Oct 20, 2014 9:08am
Jewels of the TZ
The following PDF was compiled by Rahimseven on The Similarity System thread.
This is an excellent compilation of comments by various contributors including myself.
I think this is appropriate to include now before I start posting images and examples.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Jewels of the TZ section.pdf   560 KB | 4,166 downloads
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #26
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:10am Oct 20, 2014 9:10am
Absolutely commendable effort my friend! I simply don't know where you get the energy from. Combining thread management stress with trading and a day job? You superhuman? lol. Welldone. You have my absolute support!
  • #27
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:15am Oct 20, 2014 9:15am
I am watching this thread because these zones have a relationship to one (1) of the 4 (at least according to what I've found) known market state patterns.

Not going to say anything. Just watching... =d
  • #28
  • Edited 10:59am Oct 20, 2014 9:31am | Edited 10:59am
Preview of Future Topics (in no order of importance)

  1. Images & Examples
  2. h=value and probability
  3. Kprsa's Indicator
  4. what is k?
  5. Uneven Zones and Left / Right Zones


As I get time, I will post discussions on the above. I will now set the posting level of this thread to Open.
When I am ready to post more topics, I will switch the posting level to Admin only. Just to keep the flow clean.

Thanks to everyone who's given me support.

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #29
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:33am Oct 20, 2014 9:33am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Smarty pants! Thanks for the upload, btw. Where've you been chap?
Meditating. Hoping to enter the cool kid club of making profits soon so I am trying my best to pay attention
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #30
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:36am Oct 20, 2014 9:36am
If you need help in gathering information or anything, just ask.
Thank you very much, really great effort!
  • #31
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:03am Oct 20, 2014 10:03am
What Is K?
Okay, I'm getting a few queries about this and it seems to be the hot topic when it comes to TZ.

Let's cut to the chase: Eurusdd has never revealed what the variable k is.

That's right. There is no confirmed definition of what k is.
He has deliberately witheld this with a view to us coming up with our own ideas and perhaps even solving the equation.

So for all of you thinking that there is a magic formula that will give you the Holy Grail setting, well sorry to disappoint but there is none.
However, I want to re-iterate that it is not necessary to know what k is in order to make use of how to identify TZ.

Let's use FX-Jay as an example.... he does not know k and has an 800% return on account.
So... is k required? For now, No it is not required in order to use the TZ concept.


Why Do We Need k?
I have no clearer idea of why we need k other than it was included in the original proposition:

Quoting vlady1974
If XT(t) at any time t relative to Timeframe T, then almost surely, there exists positive integers h and k such that every price belonging to the set [XT(t) – k , XT(t)+ k] is h(T) recurrent.


Therefore, as far as we can tell, if X is price in a timeframe (T) eg. 1H given a specific time t, eg. 12pm.... then there is a Set of Prices defined or within the boundaries of (X - k and X + k).

Logically, this would mean that K is related to price but we don't know if K needs to be entered into another equation. What we do know, however, is that k is a positive integer that is added and subtracted to the price range (Hi/Lo) of the Focus Bar. We also know that Eurusdd has said that knowing k will make the TZ height really small or short.


Ideas for K
After much time deliberating, we are no closer as a group to knowing what k is. There are a few ideas as to what k could be:

  1. a representation of risk or SL
  2. a variable of price representing a premium or discount based on precision of trade entry
  3. it could be the optimum/optimal height of a TZ that is desired for a given timeframe (sometimes referred to as width, but I argue that price = y, time = x therefore width is always time based and height is always price based)
  4. whatever theory you want to throw at

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #32
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:36am Oct 20, 2014 10:36am
Hello here,

Thanks you so much Vlady1974 for this thread and your contribution to similarity thread.

I suscribed of course.

(prehaps you can talk about your uneven zone)
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #33
  • Edited 5:10pm Oct 20, 2014 11:17am | Edited 5:10pm
subscribed

Vlady1974, I don't know how I will thank you for your help. It will really help further in my confused States. You made every thing easy to study now. You are very generous and helpful. Big thanks to eurusdd and all that support this. More pips to your trading.
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
  • #34
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:25am Oct 20, 2014 11:25am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I am open to the possibility of an Optimum h for each timeframe. This means the BEST h for that timeframe where prices are transient within h bars. I don't necessarily agree that having the best setting will give you the best results. That's a completely different proposition altogether. People are different.
My humble opinion......simple but probably true: If price is indeed fractal and if I put up 10 random charts and asked people to guess the time frame it would be impossible to distinguish between a 1 min and 1 month chart if enough 'cycles' had been presented on the chart, then the reality is there should be no optimum H for a certain time frame, if the results differ for H on a time frame that is simply because the sample size of data is being curve fitted. I would argue that one should use the same H for all time frames.
  • #35
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:28am Oct 20, 2014 11:28am
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} My humble opinion......simple but probably true: If price is indeed fractal and if I put up 10 random charts and asked people to guess the time frame it would be impossible to distinguish between a 1 min and 1 month chart if enough 'cycles' had been presented on the chart, then the reality is there should be no optimum H for a certain time frame, if the results differ for H on a time frame that is simply because the sample size of data is being curve fitted. I would argue that one should use the same H for all time frames.
Excellent contribution!
Let me expand on this, just briefly for the rest of the readers: Test it out!

Edit:
Before I get asked to explain further... testing means:

  1. Take your favourite pair and insert the FreeFox Indicator.
  2. Set the h value to x and observe the results, take notes
  3. Change the timeframe and observe the results, take notes

What am I looking for?

  1. How many TZ on screen were there on (a) compared to (b) compared to (c)?
  2. Were the TZ located at the same swing points? How many?
  3. Were there TZ in the middle of some bars? Which timeframes?

The idea is for you to start making observations and start forming your own opinions.
You cannot have a meaningful discussion until you start having an opinion about what you see.

Good luck!

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:29am Oct 20, 2014 11:29am
Hi!
Really nice compilation of the concept, both content and formatting vise! This might be a stupid question, as I've never read through Eurusdd's thread myself, but can the equation be based on fractal dimensions paired with stochastic theory? Let's say that you've collected every piece of information from currency trading there's ever been. Using fractal concepts for identifying recurring patterns in the chart you would be able to calculate the probability that x event is reccuring in stochastic theory. This might sound stupid, and I'm no expert. It's just a thought that crossed my mind.
less than
  • #37
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:17pm Oct 20, 2014 12:17pm
Hi, vlady1974
what is XT(t)?
if you can show me a case,thx
  • #38
  • Oct 20, 2014 2:28pm Oct 20, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting qbd1313
Hi, vlady1974 what is XT(t)? if you can show me a case,thx
The text editor in FF can't format the capital T properly.
This is the notation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 571 KB


So it basically means, Prices for a given Timeframe at time interval t.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #39
  • Oct 20, 2014 2:46pm Oct 20, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Saturday
Hi! Really nice compilation of the concept, both content and formatting vise! This might be a stupid question, as I've never read through Eurusdd's thread myself, but can the equation be based on fractal dimensions paired with stochastic theory? Let's say that you've collected every piece of information from currency trading there's ever been. Using fractal concepts for identifying recurring patterns in the chart you would be able to calculate the probability that x event is reccuring in stochastic theory. This might sound stupid, and I'm no expert....
Wow!

This is heavy duty for the intention of this thread. I am not a mathematician so I cannot validate whether the equation is based on fractal dimensions paired with stochastic theory.

However, my memory of Eurusdd's lessons suggests that you're probably on one of the many roads that lead to Rome. The Similarity thread originated with the premise that the stochastic process can be paired with price value. However, we've never fully explored the implications of fractals even though multitimeframe analysis greatly implied it.

Another thread tried to do this using the concept that an FX pair has its behaviour in its DNA. The computation skill and power needed for this are beyond me and most on the thread - but I'm lead to believe that some have achieved some % of success. The recurrent patterns would then coincide with the rare event model such that: if U denotes Up, and Down denotes Down then you could create sequences:

UD
DU
UU
DD
UUU
UUD
UDD
UDU
DDU
DUD
DUU
DDD...... etc

such that given a sequence of say 5 events, then you could work out what the 6th event would likely be. If you coupled this with whether or not the 6th event is recurrent or not, given the directional movement of events 1 to 5, then yes your idea is sound - but it would never work in MT4 purely on computational power alone.

In addition, would you really want to? Would you really want to automate this, at the level we are at? Whilst it sounds ambitious, I would prefer to learn how to trade the simple concepts. Let's not forget that FX-Jay turned $10K into $20K with TZ alone (also without needing to know the value of k).
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #40
  • Oct 20, 2014 2:53pm Oct 20, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting Saturday
Hi! Really nice compilation of the concept, both content and formatting vise! This might be a stupid question, as I've never read through Eurusdd's thread myself, but can the equation be based on fractal dimensions paired with stochastic theory? Let's say that you've collected every piece of information from currency trading there's ever been. Using fractal concepts for identifying recurring patterns in the chart you would be able to calculate the probability that x event is reccuring in stochastic theory. This might sound stupid, and I'm no expert....
Saturday,
Can you explain a little more ?.
If there is a relationship with the fractal dimension, and do not forget that any fractal function is equivalent to an iteration of the same function.
I already checked this without success. I expected a convergence of the function to a particular value. Maybe not the result that I should wait.
But you said something that caught my attention. For that reason I would like that you explain a little more.
Thank you very much.
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