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Counter-trend trading

  • #441
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:14am Oct 20, 2014 7:14am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Robertk
{quote} On the other side there are tons of people sitting behind their computer, having the urge to feel special and start making (often false) reputation on forums like these. I do not like to make false assumptions but I am just saying motives may vary from person to person. Perhaps instead of "trust" we should rather "accept" this kind of behaviour See it as some kind of videogame where one can achieve lots of reputation online. And yes, I speak out of experience because I played tons of these myself back in those days.
I hear what you are saying but nobody should be blindly following anyone or believing everything they see. It is up to people to do their own research based on what has been said and come to their own conclusions.

Even if the statements showed more details should you believe it? Nobody has to prove anything to anyone here it is up to each individual to evaluate what they see for themselves.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #442
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:25am Oct 20, 2014 7:25am
Quoting Robertk
{quote} On the other side there are tons of people sitting behind their computer, having the urge to feel special and start making (often false) reputation on forums like these. I do not like to make false assumptions but I am just saying motives may vary from person to person. Perhaps instead of "trust" we should rather "accept" this kind of behaviour See it as some kind of videogame where one can achieve lots of reputation online. And yes, I speak out of experience because I played tons of these myself back in those days. Anyway, I realize...
I have no reasons not to trust Ullen, but I am beginning to seriously question his motives for starting this thread... Does he want to share something with the "un-enlightened" so we can learn something from him, or is he pointing finger calling us stupid for not figuring out his mystical clues and quite suspicious "100 in a row with no DD" winning streak? We all want to progress and learn, but it would be nice for once not to be waisting our time...
  • #443
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:42am Oct 20, 2014 7:42am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Worst thread title EVER! Do not listen to this garbage, everyone. "The trend is your FRIEND", and that's all there is to it. I encourage everyone here to THINK for YOURSELF... {image} I won't bother explaining why "the trend is your friend", because if you don't get it or can't figure it out, then you really shouldn't be trading in the first place. However, this is one of the few and true trading "myths" or "phrases" (I forget the word) that has withstood the test of time. Sorry... but for the sake of... everyone... this thread should be...

There are enough loosers that will listen to this rookie theory . In reality, he enter at the end of a correction on a higher timeframe trend and noobs believe that theory is true.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #444
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:47am Oct 20, 2014 7:47am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Yes, that entry was totally off, but i knew that target would be hit soon, so no sweat.
Yea sure. And I knew Pope Joan Paul II will die the day he died . Rofl .
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #445
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:52am Oct 20, 2014 7:52am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Yea sure. And I knew Pope Joan Paul II will die the day he died . Rofl .
follow the flow
  • #446
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:57am Oct 20, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Neio
{quote} I hear what you are saying but nobody should be blindly following anyone or believing everything they see. It is up to people to do their own research based on what has been said and come to their own conclusions. Even if the statements showed more details should you believe it? Nobody has to prove anything to anyone here it is up to each individual to evaluate what they see for themselves.
Yeah I agree Neio at the part where everyone should think for themselves, but it all becomes a bit obnoxious when someone is claiming a 100 cons wins (let alone the thousands of possitive closed trade statements )without ever showing his equity curve.

Now there was one thing i left out of the story that made me skeptic in the first place (this was actually the reason why two days ago i searched for good 'ol Ullen in search to see what he has been up to lately(not doing this at my free time, just happened to be Ullen).

About a month ago he actually made a trade explorer that went fully green also. Curious me checks out his TE and indeed he had a steady upcurve. Then, a day later that account completely blew up by a couple of trades(yes, this topic reflects the same MM as he used on that TE).
Last but not least he removed that TE the very same day.

I asked him why he did that back then and got below reply. I am just saying that believe whatever you want to believe, but sure as hell be realistic when it comes to this guy. Do NOT take everything for granted.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #447
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:59am Oct 20, 2014 7:59am
To those who are confused please try to answer these questions:

1) what is trend?
your 1 min chart is up and you allege you are anti trend trader and short. but your 1 hr chart is down, therefore, actually your a trend trader. wait, 1 day chart is up, let me change my opinion, you are a anti trend trader. Well, seems like weekly is down, so i must say you are a trend trader. and so on. I wrote this before here but i do not think anybody understood it.
2) what does consecutive wins or win rate mean? you have 1000 consecutive wins, what does this tell you? can someone with 45% win rate be more successful than who has 100% win rate?
3) Assume that Russia and China just announced they will not be using USD for their trades. How can you calculate the exact point where EURUSD will be the next 10 seconds?

do not be like a fish in the aquarium, who thinks the aquarium is the the world. Think for yourself. Seek and ye shall find.
As Above, So Below
  • #448
  • Edited 8:23am Oct 20, 2014 8:11am | Edited 8:23am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} This guy is one of the smartest traders i know of, and this explanation is spot on. You guys should think about what is being said, and make an effort to understand it. There is no easy way in forex. Ullen.

You guys try to predict the market. THat is why you blow yours accounts. You are like a little insect on the back of rhino. You think you can oppose his force. You fight against money flow, against Big Money, against institution money. That's the difference between smart traders and fool traders : smart traders play only with Big Moneys, fool traders play against.


To everyone, don't be fooled by the consecutive wins. In reality there is no such consecutive wins or if there are , then HUGE drawdowns are present. Don't be fooled by covered stop lossses . You really think they don't want reveal their "secret" ? If yes, then you neglect the true problem that is stand in the way of your succes : money management & discipline. YOu can walk easy in a sh*t but how and when you will get out ? Technical analysis is 30% of success. A good setup will produce the another 70% What is a GOOD SETUP ? A setup that implies a disciplined entry that offer a higher reward than a risk and a good management of this position. The reward isn't the one you desired . Everybody want 10 reward and 1 risk. What makes the difference is you, your emotions,your greed and fear that affect the way you manage your active trade. All of you are so terrible thinking there are forex strategies that are producing 95% win rate. In reality, THERE'S NOT ! YOu must accept the true or leave the forex and go to work.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #449
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:12am Oct 20, 2014 8:12am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Robertk
{quote} Yeah I agree Neio at the part where everyone should think for themselves, but it all becomes a bit obnoxious when someone is claiming a 100 cons wins (let alone the thousands of possitive closed trade statements )without ever showing his equity curve. Now there was one thing i left out of the story that made me skeptic in the first place (this was actually the reason why two days ago i searched for good 'ol Ullen in search to see what he has been up to lately(not doing this at my free time, just happened to be Ullen). About a month ago he...

The TE was from a previous thread. His methods have changed since then.

Yes the exit is only one half of the equation and yes it is quite clear that some trades IF entered at the time Ullen made the call would have been in deep drawdown. He has not hidden that fact. The point is that he has confidence in the exits and will manage his trades accordingly so that he always wins.

For me targets is not enough either. I like to use SL or hedge my positions so I like to avoid the trade going against me. I want to avoid drawdown at all costs as I prefer to scalp with higher leverage. The drawdown on some of those trades would have killed my account but I have found my own way to trade it while managing the risk of the target not being hit.

I agree do your own research and come to your own conclusions. If you need to move on...
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #450
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:27am Oct 20, 2014 9:27am
Quoting Ullen
Nice example of true value on a chart. You see how price is fake? {image}
Yes, is a nice example, something like this one I use... but totally different
Attached Image
  • #451
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:49am Oct 20, 2014 9:49am
The experiment is now done, and i've reached the target of 100 consecutive wins.

This is done in 3 trading days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Skærmbillede 2014-10-20 kl. 16.45.32.png Size: 63 KB
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #452
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:56am Oct 20, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Ullen
The experiment is now done, and i've reached the target of 100 consecutive wins. This is done in 3 trading days. {image}
so whats your plan to do next? could you also share your 1min chart of eurusd please?
follow the flow
  • #453
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:02am Oct 20, 2014 10:02am
For those sending me personall messages, i cant cope with replying to everyone. I wont be replying to pms anymore. Ullen has said hes not sharing a system. I already told you guys pming me to go to te similarity thread and start digging.
  • #454
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:23am Oct 20, 2014 10:23am
Ephisi, that is very good advice & a very good thread. Their time will be well spent there.


__________________________
  • #455
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:34am Oct 20, 2014 10:34am
Quoting ephisi
For those sending me personall messages, i cant cope with replying to everyone. I wont be replying to pms anymore. Ullen has said hes not sharing a system. I already told you guys pming me to go to te similarity thread and start digging.
You guys dare incur the wrath of ephisi?? Lord have mercy!!

Sorry ephisi I couldn't resist
I want more brain power!
  • #456
  • Edited 11:48am Oct 20, 2014 10:49am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting Ullen
The experiment is now done, and i've reached the target of 100 consecutive wins. This is done in 3 trading days. {image}
Too bad drawdown is calculated AFTER closed trades take place; the one loss you had(-12.94).
Why dont you create a TE, if only for 1 hour, to prove me/us wrong. You simply cant can you? If you can i'd be happy to donate any sum of money (despite that you might not need it anyway considering your results).
  • #457
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:00am Oct 20, 2014 11:00am
Ullen you dont need to prove a point to anyone. Pls. Stay focused on your aims stated in the thread
  • #458
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:35am Oct 20, 2014 11:35am
Quoting ephisi
Ullen you dont need to prove a point to anyone. Pls. Stay focused on your aims stated in the thread
I don't think it's about proving a point. It's just that a lot of people probably wonder how to calculate risk for trades towards these levels.
  • #459
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:44am Oct 20, 2014 11:44am
Quoting ephisi
Ullen you dont need to prove a point to anyone. Pls. Stay focused on your aims stated in the thread
Actually, by now, he has Ephisi. Why would people follow his philosophy when the guy himself cannot handle his own account? He is windowdressing his own results and arguments for this are his earlier removed TE, + he avoids any questions regarding his current equity/DD.
After a few years of trading it is quite easy to cherry-pick the heroes from the rotten apples.
  • #460
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:56am Oct 20, 2014 11:56am
Ive done this before. Just have stop loss 20x big as TP... But then you blow up.
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