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AUD/USD

  • #85,301
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:57pm Oct 19, 2014 10:57pm
pull back on hourly looks done. Time for bulls to pile on...
  • #85,302
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:06pm Oct 19, 2014 11:06pm
Quoting benaiah
pull back on hourly looks done. Time for bulls to pile on...
meh...I see possibility for a few hours of pullback...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #85,303
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:14pm Oct 19, 2014 11:14pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} meh...I see possibility for a few hours of pullback...
hmm... Well anything is possible

But it's hovering right above support, so I think we'll know shortly...
  • #85,304
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:15pm Oct 19, 2014 11:15pm
Might not be enough momentum for any big move. We'll see if it can take out the "high of the day"...

Otherwise, maybe we need to wait until London/US for the bigger move...
  • #85,305
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:32pm Oct 19, 2014 11:32pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly10.png Size: 72 KB
  • #85,306
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:46pm Oct 19, 2014 11:46pm
2+2

Interesting chart. I do have a question though. The trend lines that you've drawn haven't been touched in 5-7 years. So, when are you expecting those trend lines to be touched again?

Just my opinion, but I'd redraw the trend lines according to the way the price is moving more recently.
  • #85,307
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:47pm Oct 19, 2014 11:47pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 93 KB
  • #85,308
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:48pm Oct 19, 2014 11:48pm
The above chart is also a weekly chart. If you notice the trend lines drawn show more recent touches.

Also, note the upward trend line that the price is currently fighting to get above. A lot of upward potential if it makes it above that trend line...
  • #85,309
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:11am Oct 20, 2014 12:11am
China data decide where this pair goes this week.

If AU can't sign FTA with China next month, we will see 0.83... otherwise 0.91+
  • #85,310
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:15am Oct 20, 2014 12:15am
Quoting benaiah
2+2 Interesting chart. I do have a question though. The trend lines that you've drawn haven't been touched in 5-7 years. So, when are you expecting those trend lines to be touched again? Just my opinion, but I'd redraw the trend lines according to the way the price is moving more recently.
On the weekly chart, the trend appears to be in line with the devaluation of AUD versus USD. I don't expect this to change (on a large scale) before reaching points drawn on my chart. My assessment is based on market dynamics (aka fundamentals) and technical analysis and my interpretations of them (speculation). I am estimating that the points marked on my chart will be the first major encounters of support. It appears your chart illustrates 'shorter-term' supports and resistances. Although the supports/resistances drawn on your chart are more recent, I don't expect them to be as reliable, in my opinion. Neither one of us are wrong or right (at least for now). We are simply looking at the same chart from different perspectives.
  • #85,311
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:22am Oct 20, 2014 12:22am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} On the weekly chart, the trend appears to be in line with the devaluation of AUD versus USD. I don't expect this to change (on a large scale) before reaching points drawn on my chart. My assessment is based on market dynamics (aka fundamentals) and technical analysis and my interpretations of them (speculation). I am estimating that the points marked on my chart will be the first major encounters of support. It appears your chart illustrates 'shorter-term' supports and resistances. Although the supports/resistances drawn on your chart are...
Main question I have though regarding your chart is when do you expect your trend lines to be touched? Since you only posted the chart without any comments, I could only go by what I saw, i.e. no other analysis was mentioned.

I understand you are saying now, that you have other factors you are considering, but still the question, when would you expect those trend lines to be touched?
  • #85,312
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:28am Oct 20, 2014 12:28am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Main question I have though regarding your chart is when do you expect your trend lines to be touched? Since you only posted the chart without any comments, I could only go by what I saw, i.e. no other analysis was mentioned. I understand you are saying now, that you have other factors you are considering, but still the question, when would you expect those trend lines to be touched?
My guess is within a year.
  • #85,313
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:34am Oct 20, 2014 12:34am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Main question I have though regarding your chart is when do you expect your trend lines to be touched? Since you only posted the chart without any comments, I could only go by what I saw, i.e. no other analysis was mentioned. I understand you are saying now, that you have other factors you are considering, but still the question, when would you expect those trend lines to be touched?
For example, on the chart I posted, if the price establishes itself above the that bottom upward moving trend line, I could map out 2 or 3 targets, I'd expect to hit within a 1 or 2 years. So, I'm curious on your chart, what time duration you are expecting in terms of your targets being hit...
  • #85,314
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:34am Oct 20, 2014 12:34am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} My guess is within a year.
okay, thanks
  • #85,315
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:42am Oct 20, 2014 12:42am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} For example, on the chart I posted, if the price establishes itself above the that bottom upward moving trend line, I could map out 2 or 3 targets, I'd expect to hit within a 1 or 2 years. So, I'm curious on your chart, what time duration you are expecting in terms of your targets being hit...
I've already had these open shorts for over a year now (see below). I am hoping that they reach my targets within the next year. If things don't change drastically and price stays within a certain ceiling I will probably hold them beyond a year.

Here is my post from October 1, 2013. This was about the time I entered my current short positions...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post7000053
  • #85,316
  • Edited 1:16am Oct 20, 2014 1:04am | Edited 1:16am
Attached Image

The above chart is 4 hour chart for AUD/USD.
Yellow circles and orange circles are marked as corresponding references.
All blue lines are parallel.
The cross-point candle of the green lines is at US time 17:00 5NOV2014 (Now candle US time 1:00 20OCT2014) (remember this is 4 hour chart).
  • #85,317
  • Oct 20, 2014 1:33am Oct 20, 2014 1:33am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} I've already had these open shorts for over a year now (see below). I am hoping that they reach my targets within the next year. If things don't change drastically and price stays within a certain ceiling I will probably hold them beyond a year. Here is my post from October 1, 2013. This was about the time I entered my current short positions... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post7000053
the -ve swap would be approx 350pips?
  • #85,318
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:26am Oct 20, 2014 8:26am
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} the -ve swap would be approx 350pips?
Yes, it eats into the bottomline, but negative swap isn't as bad as it seems. I calculate the swap into my target and time frame. As long as there is "sufficient" money to be made and the opportunity cost is not too high I don't let it stop me. A lot of times I think swap is helpful. Retail traders are terrified of holding positions with negative swap. Conversely, positive swap can act as the little piece of cheese on the mouse trap.
  • #85,319
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:13am Oct 20, 2014 11:13am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} I've already had these open shorts for over a year now (see below). I am hoping that they reach my targets within the next year. If things don't change drastically and price stays within a certain ceiling I will probably hold them beyond a year. Here is my post from October 1, 2013. This was about the time I entered my current short positions... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post7000053
I think your entry looked good, and of course it worked out for you up until now.

I also would not argue with the view that long-term AUDUSD will go down. But I think it will test 90-95 first.

Won't you be tempted to take profit, and sell at a better price after it goes up?
  • #85,320
  • Oct 20, 2014 1:18pm Oct 20, 2014 1:18pm
Bears slamming it before it could even touch 8799. And pushing it down from there...

Unless a super bullish signal appears, looks like we're going down to revisit the weekly open gap...
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