Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

SIMPLE EA for a simple method needed!! 2 replies

Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

Trading is this Simple? Finally Explained simple and clearly! 46 replies

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom 1,361 replies

Despair means - obvious 14 replies

Attachments: Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading
Exit Attachments

Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

  • Linked: Simple trading method | Demo Account XXXXXX25
  • Expand
  • Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
to
No trading activity in this period.
  • #21
  • Edited 6:36pm Oct 19, 2014 6:25pm | Edited 6:36pm
New Trade oppotunity

EUR/USD - Day Chart (Short)

Hello all, hope you had a good week end. This evening as I am looking through the day charts I see an opportunity that I missed on Friday. Fortunately there was still time to get my trade set.

The chart below shows a daily chart of EUR/USD, with a clear down trend. Over the last few weeks price has become more volatile and retraced up to the 61.8% Fib level. This area aligns nicely with the last swing low that was broken and thus makes a good "logical" resistance area. After an exhaustion bar moving up and touching the 78.6% Fib level price has consolidated and contracted, creating two inner bars. I have placed a sell order below the low of the initial inner bar and the stop above the top of the exhaustion bar. I have placed a limit of 278 pips which places the limit below the current swing low and the low for the last 23 months. (May have to keep my fingers crossed on this trade).

Again the probability to this TP level is 76% so we'll just wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade1-1.png Size: 17 KB
  • #22
  • Oct 19, 2014 6:43pm Oct 19, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting bryan1618
... Here is an example of a long term channel from the USD/JPY pair.
Interesting find...I hadn't done that trend line study on my charts...Mainly this is used to "Predict" where price will turn (if it is going to stay in the channel). As I do not predict price movment...or at least try not to...I have shyed away. However, now that price is here it will be interesting to see what happens.

For my way of thinking (even on the monthly chart) price has established a fairly strong and bullish trend, that (at this point) does not show any weakness.
  • #23
  • Oct 19, 2014 6:46pm Oct 19, 2014 6:46pm
Quoting gspajon
New Trade oppotunity EUR/USD - Day Chart (Short) Hello all, hope you had a good week end. This evening as I am looking through the day charts I see an opportunity that I missed on Friday. Fortunately there was still time to get my trade set. The chart below shows a daily chart of EUR/USD, with a clear down trend. Over the last few weeks price has become more volatile and retraced up to the 61.8% Fib level. This area aligns nicely with the last swing low that was broken and thus makes a good "logical" resistance area. After an exhaustion bar moving...
Hi gspajon, great simple trades. nice and clear. have one question though - you say probability is 76% - where did you get that number. did you do back test of this? was it manual/discretionary or automated? also how many samples did you have so we can estimate how reliable that 76% would be.

TIA
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #24
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:36pm Oct 19, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting stt
{quote} Hi gspajon, great simple trades. nice and clear. have one question though - you say probability is 76% - where did you get that number. did you do back test of this? was it manual/discretionary or automated? also how many samples did you have so we can estimate how reliable that 76% would be. TIA
Excellent questions. The short answer is I did my own research. The process was from live forward testing of my trading activities keeping track of the four signals I mentioned earlier. My trading was discretionary trading (as it always has been) and as such I made a rule set before I started the live forward testing. The rules set came from back testing over several different instruments and several different time frames. It was not a short project and has taken the better part of a decade to compile the data.

To get the numbers that I am now using, I tracked each trade, its signal, the length of time in each trade, and the gross number of times it hit the target. That number was reduced somewhat when I added in the BE rule of 70%. (Meaning that I move my stop to BE once the position touches or exceeds 70% of the target).

The numbers are not static either...I continue to track these statistics and have seen them move from 85% down to 60% and back to 90% depending on the market conditions. However, they have always displayed a high probability of success (utilizing my "rules of engagement"). The rest must be handled by risk management protocol which is as I described. Position sizing and scaling in and out were NOT tracked, as I wanted to have the purest form of data for the base system.

I am currently tracking the stats on 2x R, and 3x R, which I suspect will be much lower than the current stats. My goal (and it may take me another 10 years to get there) is to find the "sweet spot" for targeting trades and ulitmately use that as the "set and forget" style trading...

All trade entries and setups are discretionary to a degree but my most basic rule in trading is: "If it isn't obvious why am I trading it?"

Hope that helps.
  • #25
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:49pm Oct 19, 2014 7:49pm
stt...and anyone else who want to follow this idea. I have just put in a trade explorer on a demo account with FXDD. I've never done anything like this before and made it public. But from here any of you who wish to gather data from my trades may do so. Keep in mind all trades on the account are DEMO...I will NOT be publicly sharing any "real" account info...sorry.

That should help remove some of the criticism...I think.
  • #26
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:58pm Oct 19, 2014 7:58pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Excellent questions. The short answer is I did my own research. The process was from live forward testing of my trading activities keeping track of the four signals I mentioned earlier. My trading was discretionary trading (as it always has been) and as such I made a rule set before I started the live forward testing. The rules set came from back testing over several different instruments and several different time frames. It was not a short project and has taken the better part of a decade to compile the data. To get the numbers that I...
Hahaha.....you have all the right traders attributes and trading philosophy and experience and your analysis should be 100% right or its 100% wrong!! Waiting.....hurt or angry....or I will be gone.....
  • #27
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:06pm Oct 19, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Hahaha.....you have all the right traders attributes and trading philosophy and experience and your analysis should be 100% right or its 100% wrong!! Waiting.....hurt or angry....or I will be gone.....
I think that was a compliment so I thank you very much...one thing I can guarantee is that my trading will NOT be 100% right...
  • #28
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:11pm Oct 19, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} I think that was a compliment so I thank you very much...one thing I can guarantee is that my trading will NOT be 100% right...
Nobody trading is 100% right, you and me included.....I was talking about trade analysis.
  • #29
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:18pm Oct 19, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting gspajon
stt...and anyone else who want to follow this idea. I have just put in a trade explorer on a demo account with FXDD. I've never done anything like this before and made it public. But from here any of you who wish to gather data from my trades may do so. Keep in mind all trades on the account are DEMO...I will NOT be publicly sharing any "real" account info...sorry. That should help remove some of the criticism...I think.
Dear GSPAJAN,

I am ready to help using DEMO. Please guide me.

What is mean by the stats on 2x R, and 3x R ?

bye
ajentha
  • #30
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:22pm Oct 19, 2014 8:22pm
Anyway not trying to be rude or condescending, I think you have committed a cardinal sin in forex trading and one day if someone comes and take that blinker away I can guarantee you that your trading and your live will be changed dramatically....good luck.

GS
  • #31
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:50pm Oct 19, 2014 8:50pm
Quoting genghistar
Anyway not trying to be rude or condescending, I think you have committed a cardinal sin in forex trading and one day if someone comes and take that blinker away I can guarantee you that your trading and your live will be changed dramatically....good luck. GS
REALLY??!! What "sin" would that be?
  • #32
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:49pm Oct 19, 2014 9:49pm
Quoting ajentha
{quote} Dear GSPAJAN, I am ready to help using DEMO. Please guide me. What is mean by the stats on 2x R, and 3x R ? bye ajentha
Ajentha...if you want to open a demo account that is up to you...I always recommend at least a little demo trading to work out the "flaws" in your own behaviour in regard to platform operation. I only started using a demo here just to keep the critics at bay saying I am actually trading these signals. I just enter duplicate trades on my demo account.

On the issue of 2x R and 3x R; that is a study I'm doing to see if I could (should) be holding my trades a little longer to reach 2x initial risk or 3x initial risk. As with anything there are certain risks and time is one of the greatest. The variable of time is not calculated or considered by most of the trading forums here. I want to know if my probabilities increase or decrease with time. Thus before actually taking action I am tracking the trades after they are closed to see if they make the extended take profit goals and what percent of them do. Based on experience, I venture to say that 80% make the 1xR mark; and that only 40-50% make the 2xR mark. Even less make the 3xR mark...I venture to say less than 30-40%. So if that is the case I want to know if it is worth the time and the added initial risk to set my take profits out farther. As I'm sure you know....everything has a point beyond which it is not profitable to continue.
  • #33
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:44pm Oct 19, 2014 11:44pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
What's up gspajon. I like the new thread. Pure PA trading is the only way to go. I realize you're not looking for sexy but I thought you might find Thursdays pinner on the Daily EJ a rather sexy Price Action setup. I entered on a stop at the break of the pin bars high & My 1st target is the 61.8 retrace on the most recent move down. Thanks again for taking your time & I look forward to looking in on the thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej_pb.png Size: 79 KB
  • #34
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:51pm Oct 19, 2014 11:51pm
oh that's great i found something new way to find out the trading per cost i got some new points thx
  • #35
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:08am Oct 20, 2014 7:08am
Quoting eggs
What's up gspajon. I like the new thread. Pure PA trading is the only way to go. I realize you're not looking for sexy but I thought you might find Thursdays pinner on the Daily EJ a rather sexy Price Action setup. I entered on a stop at the break of the pin bars high & My 1st target is the 61.8 retrace on the most recent move down. Thanks again for taking your time & I look forward to looking in on the thread. {image}
Dear EGGS,

Nice Price action entry, but while analyzing the trading setup:

Pros:
1) Big nose Pin Bar
2) Price Action reversal (or) retrenchment?

Cons:
1) PA is in Weekly control
2) Against the trend of down
3) weekly is side way move

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY,Weekly_20_10_2014 , 5_37_19 PM.png Size: 38 KB


This is my point. I also looking Mr. GSPAJON comments. let see

Best regards,
ajentha
  • #36
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:41am Oct 20, 2014 7:41am
Hi there Eggs...Wow what a trade! This is exactly the kind of trade I used to take. Very Sexy. But the problem was that only about 10% of them ever really made any money to speak of. Your trade here has a nice lead on the market and I would say this...the very moment you see a lower high form...take what you can and get out.

This chart formation is the what I call the "Antitrend" I is showing higher highs and lower lows. Basically it is stopping EVERYONE out. I am glad you are currently positive on this trade and hope you can close it with some good pips.

I saw this chart (along with GBP/USD) earlier in the week and decided to stay as far away from it as possible until I see something obvious (just like the title of this thread). While I am glad your trade is working, this is not something I would consider. Honestly, I can't really tell which way that pair is going to turn.

Again I like to keep it simple and uncomplicated. It must be obvious or its no trade for me....as I am hoping to demonstrate here there are plenty of other much easier pairs to trade, that will have a much higher probability of success. "The low hanging fruit".

Good luck with your trade.
  • #37
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:53am Oct 20, 2014 7:53am
Hi, gspajon.

from my understanding, Price Action mostly used in H4, Daily and weekly chart. and the prefer chart will be New york 5 day closing chart. Right? Any recomemnd broker ?

another question is can the Price action be used in H1 Chart and how to ? Thks for your time.
  • #38
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:20am Oct 20, 2014 8:20am
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Ajentha...if you want to open a demo account that is up to you...I always recommend at least a little demo trading to work out the "flaws" in your own behaviour in regard to platform operation. I only started using a demo here just to keep the critics at bay saying I am actually trading these signals. I just enter duplicate trades on my demo account. On the issue of 2x R and 3x R; that is a study I'm doing to see if I could (should) be holding my trades a little longer to reach 2x initial risk or 3x initial risk. As with anything there are...
Dear GSPAJON,

That is 2x R and 3x R is risk in increase range of Take Profit.

Example: EURUSD
Stop limit : 1.2886
Sell Stop : 1.2705
Range : 186 Pips
1:1 Risk : 1.2519
2x R (Take Profit limit) : 1.2333
76% TP is (2x R * 76%) = 283 Pips : 1.2422
3x R (Take Profit limit) : 1.2147

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD,Daily_10_2014 , 6_47_56 PM.png Size: 35 KB


I am correct? Please guide me.

bye
ajentha
  • #39
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:28am Oct 20, 2014 8:28am
Quoting ajentha
{quote} Dear GSPAJON, That is 2x R and 3x R is risk in increase range of Take Profit. Example: EURUSD Stop limit : 1.2886 Sell Stop : 1.2705 Range : 186 Pips 1:1 Risk : 1.2519 2x R (Take Profit limit) : 1.2333 76% TP is (2x R * 76%) = 283 Pips : 1.2422 3x R (Take Profit limit) : 1.2147 {image} I am correct? Please guide me. bye ajentha
Ajentha,

At the risk of sounding rude...I am not here to teach you my method....my rule set is one that has taken me many many years to come up with and I am not about to give that away. The first limit is determined manly by the signal candle...in the EUR/USD example it is the inner bar. From my entry to my first target, this signal hits approximately 76% of the time...thus the PROBABILITY of that occurring this time (assuming the trade triggers) is 76%.

2xR would be twice that distance...3xR thrice the distance....etc. I have no statistics on these yet...I am still gathering them. For now just forget about 2xR and 3xR...just learn the trading paradigm...simple...uncomplicated...obvious you will have to come up with your own rule set and test it yourself.
  • #40
  • Edited 11:33am Oct 20, 2014 8:50am | Edited 11:33am
Quoting Ata1977
Hi, gspajon. from my understanding, Price Action mostly used in H4, Daily and weekly chart. and the prefer chart will be New york 5 day closing chart. Right?
Those are the charts I am using via FXDD...I chose weekly charts precisely because no matter what broker you use...the weekly chart is the weekly chart...the same can be said of the hourly chart. Besides using the weekly charts keeps the stop far enough away from the market so the greedy retail brokers can keep their slimey hands off it.
Quoting Ata1977
Any recomemnd broker ?
No sorry...I'm not here to recommend anything...that's a whole other thread...there are many such threads here on FF.

Quoting Ata1977
...another question is can the Price action be used in H1 Chart and how to ? Thks for your time.
Yes absolutely...you can use price action on any chart. I use them on intraday charts on the futures market every day....just make sure it is obvious...that's my main theme...I've chosen to use them on weekly chart here so that all will have time to look for themselves and decide if they want to follow...weekly charts are like watching the stars move...a loooooong time.

Hope this helps.
0 traders viewing now