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Counter-trend trading

  • #401
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:40am Oct 19, 2014 8:40am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} No, it's not a stoch. I'ts a future indicator lol
Hi Ullen,

Is that some sort of a CCI based on value?
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #402
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:08am Oct 19, 2014 9:08am
Quoting saver0
{quote} Hi Ullen, Is that some sort of a CCI based on value?
No, it's deeper than that. Market counterparts..
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #403
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:01am Oct 19, 2014 11:01am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} No, it's deeper than that. Market counterparts..
The indicator you have posted resembles a short period ATR. Since it is not that, being counterparts, are u saying that you counter trend trade based on a twin or synthetic pair, that every pair you trade has a correlating twin/synthetic twin, behaving much like dynamic vs. static flow pressure? If so, where is your index value?
  • #404
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:03am Oct 19, 2014 11:03am
Quoting Larshw
{quote} The indicator you have posted resembles a short period ATR. Since it is not that, being counterparts, are u saying that you counter trend trade based on a twin or synthetic pair, that every pair you trade has a correlating twin/synthetic twin, behaving much like dynamic vs. static flow pressure? If so, where is your index value?
I'm not using correlating pairs to determine the value.

You can do this, just find your own way
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #405
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:50am Oct 19, 2014 11:50am
Quoting Robertk
{quote} So in case you work with certain max-deviation and attraction prices, whats your time-schedule for price to hit your mentioned attraction price from above post, 106.227? I assume you include certain math in order to have at least a max-timespan for price to hit "x" level? I mean, I hope so for the sake of DD {image}
Hello Ullen, I assume you missed my honest question earlier so I am hereby quoting myself.
  • #406
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:52am Oct 19, 2014 11:52am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} I'm not using correlating pairs to determine the value. You can do this, just find your own way
THIS is what unnamedPlayr SAID. "My opinion on that:

If you wanna understand value then you have to compare the "(a)leading price instrument" to an "(b)replicated-price-instrument".

(b)replicated-price-instrument = ((similar stuff) price at location1) : ((similar stuff) price at location2)
the more and heavily traded the better

then do the math:
(a) : (b)" so you say you don't use this concept ?
  • #407
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:55am Oct 19, 2014 11:55am
Now without offense, I noticed you use terms as price "will" do this, and will do this "soon". Let me tell you, i never seen any proffesional trader use these terms. Prof traders talk in terms of probability and never state time values as "soon".

Looks to me you got some work on your hands mate
  • #408
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:02pm Oct 19, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting Robertk
Now without offense, I noticed you use terms as price "will" do this, and will do this "soon". Let me tell you, i never seen any proffesional trader use these terms. Prof traders talk in terms of probability and never state time values as "soon". Looks to me you got some work on your hands mate
The reason why i use theese terms are because i wont put a timeframe or entry point. I'm telling people that there is unbalance, and price have to return to this target. I havent said anything about entering a trade. This is up to the individual.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #409
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:35pm Oct 19, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} The reason why i use theese terms are because i wont put a timeframe or entry point. I'm telling people that there is unbalance, and price have to return to this target. I havent said anything about entering a trade. This is up to the individual.
can you please answer my question we need more details
  • #410
  • Oct 19, 2014 1:06pm Oct 19, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} The reason why i use theese terms are because i wont put a timeframe or entry point. I'm telling people that there is unbalance, and price have to return to this target. I havent said anything about entering a trade. This is up to the individual.
Is that because you do not have the information on this matter, or because you simply refuse to share an example? Eventually price will get there but thats out of the question. For now I wonder how you reduce your drawdown (considering your statement is in full green, equity should be provided).
  • #411
  • Oct 19, 2014 1:17pm Oct 19, 2014 1:17pm
ullen, is the blue line a derivation of something?
follow the flow
  • #412
  • Oct 19, 2014 1:59pm Oct 19, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting Robertk
{quote} Is that because you do not have the information on this matter, or because you simply refuse to share an example? Eventually price will get there but thats out of the question. For now I wonder how you reduce your drawdown (considering your statement is in full green, equity should be provided).
I've said from the start that i wouldnt be sharing any system. I just like to show how my system works, and where i have my targets.

I'll talk about my entries soon.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #413
  • Edited 2:13pm Oct 19, 2014 2:03pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} My funny buddy. I like you so much. You always make us laugh. How are ur many many wifes and concubines.Anyway. I am a testimony to the concepts ullen is using. Awesome . If you have the time study it.Mkst of the guys on the eurusd thread are quick to call fowl. I was one of them until I decided to study this concept after seeing unbelievable result from others.The market is not random
I didn't say nothing against Ullen's concept, and have nothing against it. Market is not random, no doubt about it, but is it predictable in short-term is a big question mark.

True Story - 1:
One of the girls in accounting pool that I used to manage for a NY company came and mentioned to me (may be in 2010) that her husband was a day trader. She discussed the market and asked for my opinion. I advised her to buy and hold gold at 1,300. Next week, she took a day off to shop for gold. After a couple of years, she forwarded me her resignation. I asked her the reason for leaving, the reply was "We sold gold at 1,900". Her husband made over $850,000 in this one trade. Both retired and went to their home country enjoying life. I saw them only once after that, when they came to United States to clear their taxes.

True Story - 2
An Indian trader couple came to New York soon after 2008 financial crisis. They mentioned that they take only one or two long-term trades in a year or so. The guy claimed that he had tons of trading method research work to show me if I had any doubts about his method. He wanted to buy Dow Jones at 6,600 or so and sell eur/usd around 1.5000, $5,000 each trade and sit for few years to see what happens. I don't know what he did, but one thing I know is that he was smart.

True Story - 3
I visited Canada in December 2008 (If I correctly remember). The oil was at $39. One of my Canadian friend's son asked if this was right price to buy oil. My reply was how further down it could go? It would always remain above drilling cost, at least. A group of three McGill University students bought oil for $40 and sold it for $80 in a year or so as a test business project.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #414
  • Oct 19, 2014 2:03pm Oct 19, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} I've said from the start that i wouldnt be sharing any system. I just like to show how my system works, and where i have my targets. I'll talk about my entries soon.
Again, i never mentioned "sharing a system". I am simply asking if you can provide us ONCE with a time-schedule for ONE trade. Or, dont you have this kind of information? If thats the case thats totally fine too! I am asking this because I wonder how you manage DD, thats all.
  • #415
  • Oct 19, 2014 2:06pm Oct 19, 2014 2:06pm
By the end of this thread, dear Ullen, you'll tell us you use the Egyptian pyramids to see the future.

"Trend is not your friend" ... "Price is nothing" ... "Price will go to heaven before I say so", then you show a useless stochastic which is based on historical data and you are calling it alien names you don't understand.
Are you trying to create a new religion? If so you are doing great.
  • #416
  • Oct 19, 2014 2:15pm Oct 19, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting Robertk
{quote} Again, i never mentioned "sharing a system". I am simply asking if you can provide us ONCE with a time-schedule for ONE trade. Or, dont you have this kind of information? If thats the case thats totally fine too! I am asking this because I wonder how you manage DD, thats all.
I'll provide ONE trade example with entry and target, to prove the system.

Coming next time i have a setup!
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #417
  • Oct 19, 2014 2:25pm Oct 19, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} I'll provide ONE trade example with entry and target, to prove the system. Coming next time i have a setup!
If it includes anything that shows how you control risk (either SL/max deviation(price) without SL/time period before TP hit) cool, looking forward to! If you dont want to provide this thats fine also but just know there are tons of fully green trackrecords out there.. The dark side however remains, its their equity curve.
  • #418
  • Oct 19, 2014 2:26pm Oct 19, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting Atihun
ullen, is the blue line a derivation of something?
The blue line is the red line from picture I have attached ... "real value".
  • #419
  • Edited Oct 20, 2014 2:28am Oct 19, 2014 3:44pm | Edited Oct 20, 2014 2:28am
Quoting Robertk
Now without offense, I noticed you use terms as price "will" do this, and will do this "soon". Let me tell you, i never seen any proffesional trader use these terms. Prof traders talk in terms of probability and never state time values as "soon". Looks to me you got some work on your hands mate
Very True.Also "Where price is now it WILL be again" You only lose money WHEN you give it!
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #420
  • Oct 19, 2014 4:54pm Oct 19, 2014 4:54pm
USD/JPY could go nuts soon.

Find your entry.

Target = 106.227
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
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