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The similarity system

  • #10,561
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:30am Oct 19, 2014 8:30am
Quoting Kiads
From this picture, is not difficult for me to decide where to place my entry, SL, and my first TP target with RRR at least 1:3. With my own interpretation, this Similarity and Transient Zones is clear and simple great concept.. are you sure you don't see it ? {image} Best Regard MTH
hi kiads nice charts , i did have a dabble a while ago with renko was, quite succesfull but i wasnt confident with it being a newbie.
might have to give it another try, now i know a little more .
RegardsOrid peter
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: renco.jpg Size: 471 KB
  • #10,562
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:45am Oct 19, 2014 8:45am
Quoting grin
{quote} How did you arrive at the rating of 94%?
he tells fibs , he is a magician
  • #10,563
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:06am Oct 19, 2014 9:06am
I am in
  • #10,564
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:36am Oct 19, 2014 9:36am
Quoting ephisi
Give it time. It will come to you. You mind will be blown everyday.Yes. Most things I learned in uni are applied here. Engineering maths for example. Fluid dynamics. Rock and fluid properties. So many concepts apply to fx. Chess whatever.{quote}
Thank you very much for your support mate

Quoting orid
{quote} he tells fibs , he is a magician


Quoting fallenleaf
hello Eurusdd, i am a new reader to your thread here, and having some challenges here. when i am trying to compile the indicators, i.e., r-v1/r-v2 mg4, it won't work, can you please advise how, big thanks!
There are 2 kinds of Ralome's code. The first one are R1&R2 for old MT4 (build 5xx). If you are using MT4 build 6xx, download another one, that works for MT4 build 6xx , as i remember, there is "670" in file name (ex: something like: rv1-670.mq4)

Quoting FX-Jay
94% probability that AUD/USD will reach 0.8838 before Wednesday's Asian session Current price 0.8742 Target 0.8838 (+96 pips) Stop Loss 0.8670 (-72 pips) Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1.33 Probability of success: 94% Expiry time: End of Tuesday's American session This call has all the components you need for a perfect trade using TZ & probabilities. If you could manage a better entry, it would be perfect. Note: 94% is not equal to 100%, so try to stay calm if the trade gets stopped out or the target isn't reached by expiry. I'm no magician , I'm a trader...
Thanks Jay. I have a similar zone, but it is around 8831-8834. Anyway it will go up, great . I love this concept.
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #10,565
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:45am Oct 19, 2014 9:45am
Quoting san1111
{quote} Hi Kiads, it's very nice. I've tried it with your indi (thanks for it). My probleme is to make an automatic signal at turning point, because TZ indi gives you signal when finished zone, in this case after 32 bars. It's too late I think How do you solve it? Thanks.
I use TZ only as supporting references.., my main entry base on my sweetspot and my shift renko chart bricks formation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 5point brick shifted renko and Transient Zones where to entry.png Size: 364 KB


best regard
MTH
  • #10,566
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:48am Oct 19, 2014 9:48am
Quoting orid
{quote} hi kiads nice charts , i did have a dabble a while ago with renko was, quite succesfull but i wasnt confident with it being a newbie. might have to give it another try, now i know a little more . RegardsOrid peter {image}
Yup My Friend, Donchian Channel also great tools when combined with renko chart..
  • #10,567
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:54am Oct 19, 2014 9:54am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hi VVizlan, sounds interesting. But what's your TP? Is it within the range of the middle bar (which is the bar before you enter)? That might work, though be careful about the next bar being a mid-bar TZ too. According to my research the probability of two consecutive TZ bars is surprisingly high.
TP is the close of the first left side TZ. Yes, but what is the probability of two full transient mid bars? I think fairly low. If h is relatively small i think potential losses are fairly small depeding on TF. I would base position size on the maximum pip loss over the last 500 trades, or something like that.
  • #10,568
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:12am Oct 19, 2014 10:12am
Quoting jackprobe
{quote} May be i am wrong, but besides having a zone around 7984-7986 , i have another zone (very deep) 7844-7840. Not so sure which one will be reached first, or which one will be expired after passing its lifetime (will become transient forever .....) If a new comer wants to learn this great system, just read the threads several times, I still do it until today .... You can read Eurusdd's posts , or if you have time, read also good posts written by Vlady, Ephisi, and some other helpfully good traders here .... Every time i read it, i got something...
Quoting FX-Jay
94% probability that AUD/USD will reach 0.8838 before Wednesday's Asian session Current price 0.8742 Target 0.8838 (+96 pips) Stop Loss 0.8670 (-72 pips) Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1.33 Probability of success: 94% Expiry time: End of Tuesday's American session This call has all the components you need for a perfect trade using TZ & probabilities. If you could manage a better entry, it would be perfect. Note: 94% is not equal to 100%, so try to stay calm if the trade gets stopped out or the target isn't reached by expiry. I'm no magician , I'm a trader...
Quoting pedma
{quote} xxxxxx {quote} Thanks Jay. I have a similar zone, but it is around 8831-8834. Anyway it will go up, great . I love this concept.
Ou je je je ....... then it seems NU will go up to reach 7984 almost surely this week. I will wait for a drop tomorrow (monday) , to put a buy order. Good work mates, thanks for sharing.
Similarity can change your life !
  • #10,569
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:23am Oct 19, 2014 10:23am
Quoting FX-Jay
94% probability that AUD/USD will reach 0.8838 before Wednesday's Asian session Current price 0.8742 Target 0.8838 (+96 pips) Stop Loss 0.8670 (-72 pips) Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1.33 Probability of success: 94% Expiry time: End of Tuesday's American session This call has all the components you need for a perfect trade using TZ & probabilities. If you could manage a better entry, it would be perfect. Note: 94% is not equal to 100%, so try to stay calm if the trade gets stopped out or the target isn't reached by expiry. I'm no magician , I'm a trader...
Thanks for that - your most specific call yet. I looked at your trades for a while as well, and was also puzzled by the USDMXN trade. I did notice that on that trade, and some others, your TP happened to be the midpoint between the recent H/L, but I never actually made sense of it, especially given the ability to pinpoint probabilities. Thought you may have changed the indicator to run probabilities of K pts resolution of bars, but haven't got to checking that yet, as I started writing an indicator similarity EA instead.

So, taking a stab at this one... desire to trade against a confirmed TZ and toward a non-confirmed TZ. This gives direction and an SL, but does not give any probabilities for the actual trade. The actual trade will be some other set of h's, based on your desired exit point and exit time. Conceivably, you could play with the h's on almost any bar after a confirmed TZ in order to get your >90%. Then you simply check the R:R, and if it works, hit it.

However, this still leaves the case of predicting into an unforeseen range, which you have also done. So, I'm actually hoping I'm wrong with my stab above, since using TZ's as S/R is essentially limited to range bound action (relative to your tf, of course).
  • #10,570
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:29am Oct 19, 2014 10:29am
Thanks for the help, I've downloaded the PDF with information on the "CI".
I understand it has been easier because all the information is in one place.

Now I only need to understand how search targets in the "TZ" is looking at the indicator attached image? or indicator Ralome? "rv-2?
As I can interpret? Is this correct?

I would appreciate your help!

Natalia.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sin título.png Size: 42 KB
  • #10,571
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:31am Oct 19, 2014 10:31am
Quoting VVizlan
{quote} TP is the close of the first left side TZ. Yes, but what is the probability of two full transient mid bars? I think fairly low. If h is relatively small i think potential losses are fairly small depeding on TF. I would base position size on the maximum pip loss over the last 500 trades, or something like that.
Don't go down the path... nibbling crumbs and then trying to limit losses when the wolf steals half your loaf is tough. I'll take R:R over W:L any day. Even if max W:L is done right, solving instead for a reasonable R:R is less stress, and same profit (if not more) in the end, especially if trading manually.
  • #10,572
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:48am Oct 19, 2014 10:48am
Quoting FX-Jay
94% probability that AUD/USD will reach 0.8838 before Wednesday's Asian session Current price 0.8742 Target 0.8838 (+96 pips) Stop Loss 0.8670 (-72 pips) Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1.33 Probability of success: 94% Expiry time: End of Tuesday's American session This call has all the components you need for a perfect trade using TZ & probabilities. If you could manage a better entry, it would be perfect. Note: 94% is not equal to 100%, so try to stay calm if the trade gets stopped out or the target isn't reached by expiry. I'm no magician , I'm a trader...
Thank you Jay, Looking at your result, there is no doubt of your call. Nice post mate, I am in .
  • #10,573
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:55am Oct 19, 2014 10:55am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Thanks for that - your most specific call yet. I looked at your trades for a while as well, and was also puzzled by the USDMXN trade. I did notice that on that trade, and some others, your TP happened to be the midpoint between the recent H/L, but I never actually made sense of it, especially given the ability to pinpoint probabilities. Thought you may have changed the indicator to run probabilities of K pts resolution of bars, but haven't got to checking that yet, as I started writing an indicator similarity EA instead. So, taking a stab...
You're on the right track mate. My strategy is work in progress, and there have been updates on it since day one. The basis remains the same, and I have shared it in private with a selected few on the hopes of developing it further and making it as perfect as possible. I'm continuously looking for better entries, better exists, and more precise signal timing.

Your reasoning is completely logical, and I can assure you that you are looking in the right direction (At least when it comes to my methods).
You mentioned a desire to trade against a confirmed TZ, for the TZ to be confirmed, you need a specific H or set of Hs. You'll have to combine this with the Hs that will give you a non-confirmed TZ. The range of variable Hs won't be as wide as you may think, and yes it's true that this is from where you start deriving the probabilities of the trade + the validity duration.

As for the "unforeseen range", what's unforseen on 1 TF doesn't have to be the same on another one.

Connect all the above together, try adding the K vale into the formula, and then try integrating different TFs together, and you'll get yourself an almost complete system. Once you have that & you become comfortable with it, there are million ways to use it to your advantage, some of which I have already mentioned in previous posts, and others that I am yet to discover.

Best,
Jay
  • #10,574
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:56am Oct 19, 2014 10:56am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Hey buddy! Never got to thank you for the insight into UTZs! Works like a charm. Notice that the last 10 UTZs on M30(h=24) were all winners. No losses.(if you managed your exits well of course). Cheers!
Thank you LITEchild for your comment and chart. On trade number 9 it appears that you entered from a potential UTZ as it was forming possibly using the Symphonie indicator or a reversal bar or both as the trigger...
Attached Image
  • #10,575
  • Oct 19, 2014 10:58am Oct 19, 2014 10:58am
FX-Jay...

AUDUSD also has a 93.93% chance of hitting 0.8650 in 2.5 days.

Could go either way I guess. But with the long term trend being down. If it goes north to your number first, there might be a golden opportunity if the H is still viable.
  • #10,576
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:03am Oct 19, 2014 11:03am
Quoting leeshindig
FX-Jay... AUDUSD also has a 93.93% chance of hitting 0.8650 in 2.5 days. Could go either way I guess. But with the long term trend being down. If it goes north to your number first, there might be a golden opportunity if the H is still viable.
Oh hang on. I take that figure back. When I zoom in on the chart, the sneaky thing did a quick candle squeeze down to that number already a couple of candles after, which wasn't visible on the zoomed out chart!..
  • #10,577
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:07am Oct 19, 2014 11:07am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Neio, Any smart question or constructive criticism is more than welcome. You're one of the good people around here with legit contributions, that's why I took the time to go back in my trading history to check what happened at that time. The answers to your questions were already answered in later posts by me on this thread through the statements that I was posting here. 1- http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7747925#post7747925 2- http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7754346#post7754346 3- http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7757014#post7757014...

Hey FX-Jay,

Just wanted to say many thanks for your comprehensive reply. I really appreciate it and will look at it in detail. Sorry if I missed something in your previous posting but you are a great guy for taking the time out to reply in that way.

It is great the way you have found a way to trade TZs and your results are fantastic. Eurusdd is the main man but the way you have taken to the nuggets he provided is truly inspirational. I wish you continued success.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #10,578
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:27am Oct 19, 2014 11:27am
Quoting leeshindig
FX-Jay... AUDUSD also has a 93.93% chance of hitting 0.8650 in 2.5 days. Could go either way I guess. But with the long term trend being down. If it goes north to your number first, there might be a golden opportunity if the H is still viable.
Hey Leeshindig,

Just for fun here's my answer to the 'long term trend' statement:

Attached is a screenshot of one of my recent posts on a private group on NZD/USD which also is supposed to be in a long term down trend
Also attached is my entry & partial exists

Finally there's my post on AUD today
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture1.PNG Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture2.PNG Size: 7 KB
Attached Images
  • #10,579
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:42am Oct 19, 2014 11:42am
Quoting Kiads
{quote} I use TZ only as supporting references.., my main entry base on my sweetspot and my shift renko chart bricks formation. {image} best regard MTH
Thanks a lot.
  • #10,580
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:14pm Oct 19, 2014 12:14pm
John

I think you misunderstood my point.

It was, "if it goes north to your number first there might be a golden opportunity"..

Meaning back to my number afterwards..

Which is not valid, so none of the above matters anyway
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