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  • #61
  • Oct 19, 2014 6:34am Oct 19, 2014 6:34am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} You're perfectly right. The winrate alone doesn't make a system profitable ... even a 99% one. It must be combined with the RRR. You can be a loser with a winrate of 99% ... and you can be profitable with a winrate of 1% ...
The problem is that in this case people should scalp for few pips on hourly TF without hard SL. Which means that if even one candle turns against the trade, all gains are gone.
  • #62
  • Oct 19, 2014 6:39am Oct 19, 2014 6:39am
Quoting dee50
This is sooo simple it is ridiculous. Could you just confirm your method for getting out of a loser, I have marked up a chart for this weeks EU, I can only see 2 potential losers, could you explain how you would have treated those 2 situations to minimize the losses, I have presented 3 scenarios 1. Take a hit for 32 pips. Not a good option based on 8 trades @ 4 pips tp / day. Wipes out profits rapidly! 2. Hold until PA comes back, could mean holding for 13 hours, or PA does not come back for days or weeks. 3. Take a BE or -1 pip based on "If the...
Hi Dee50

According to your weekly test it may be prudent to trade the setup with a fixed T/P of 4 pips and a fixed S/L of 32 pips, for your test "if" it worked out correctly on a live scenario one would have possibly come out with a net gain in the region of +32-32+32+32-32 which is a gain of "around" 32 pips for the week. Please note this is just basic rounding, spread and comms need to be taken into account. ComoxBluejay would have been up £25 x 33 = £825 on the worst case scenario.
  • #63
  • Edited 6:51am Oct 19, 2014 6:39am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} You're perfectly right. The winrate alone doesn't make a system profitable ... even a 99% one. It must be combined with the RRR. You can be a loser with a winrate of 99% ... and you can be profitable with a winrate of 1% ...
So basically with this system aka not using a SL you can wipe out your account with one bad trade? Even with a win rate of 82? hmm..

would not be my cup of tea. The hit rate is tempting though.
  • #64
  • Oct 19, 2014 6:49am Oct 19, 2014 6:49am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} So basically with this system aka not using a SL you can wipe out your account with one bad trade? Even with a win rate of 82? hmm.. wouldnt not be my cup of tea. The hit rate is tempting though.
Hit rate is just statistic. If it is 82% long term then it means that long term you lose in average 18 trades out of 100. Short term there is no guarantee that you lose many trades in a row.
Traders who do not use SL are the dream of any broker
  • #65
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:01am Oct 19, 2014 7:01am
Quoting podberry
{quote} Hi Dee50 According to your weekly test it may be prudent to trade the setup with a fixed T/P of 4 pips and a fixed S/L of 32 pips, for your test "if" it worked out correctly on a live scenario one would have possibly come out with a net gain in the region of +32-32+32+32-32 which is a gain of "around" 32 pips for the week. Please note this is just basic rounding, spread and comms need to be taken into account. ComoxBluejay would have been up £25 x 33 = £825 on the worst case scenario.
I need to rework my maths, on the losing 2 days the losses would have been (+4+4+4-32+4) and (+4+4+4+4-32) which is only -32 pips, so the net gain would have been 3 days of +32 and 2 days of -16. The total pips gained for the week would have been 64 pips.
  • #66
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:02am Oct 19, 2014 7:02am
Quoting podberry
{quote} Hi Dee50 According to your weekly test it may be prudent to trade the setup with a fixed T/P of 4 pips and a fixed S/L of 32 pips, for your test "if" it worked out correctly on a live scenario one would have possibly come out with a net gain in the region of +32-32+32+32-32 which is a gain of "around" 32 pips for the week. Please note this is just basic rounding, spread and comms need to be taken into account. ComoxBluejay would have been up £25 x 33 = £825 on the worst case scenario.
I need to rework my maths,
  • #67
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:03am Oct 19, 2014 7:03am
Quoting dee50
This is sooo simple it is ridiculous. Could you just confirm your method for getting out of a loser, I have marked up a chart for this weeks EU, I can only see 2 potential losers, could you explain how you would have treated those 2 situations to minimize the losses, I have presented 3 scenarios 1. Take a hit for 32 pips. Not a good option based on 8 trades @ 4 pips tp / day. Wipes out profits rapidly! 2. Hold until PA comes back, could mean holding for 13 hours, or PA does not come back for days or weeks. 3. Take a BE or -1 pip based on "If the...
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  • #68
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:07am Oct 19, 2014 7:07am
Quoting ComoxBluejay
{quote} Correct....but it won out in the end. Stop looking for the holy grail! Draw down is unavoidable, live with it.
Who told thee I seek the Holy Grail, Mr. Cocky?
What does my message to the Holy Grail?
Relax a little, buddy, I see you greatly accelerated!
I just made ​​a comment. If you have the answer, fine, and if not, too.
  • #69
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:08am Oct 19, 2014 7:08am
Quoting podberry
{quote} I need to rework my maths,
Monday + 32
Tuesday - 4
Wed +32
Thurs +32
Friday -4

So the week would have been up +88 pips, is that correct ?
  • #70
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:13am Oct 19, 2014 7:13am
Quoting podberry
{quote} Monday + 32 Tuesday - 4 Wed +32 Thurs +32 Friday -4 So the week would have been up +88 pips, is that correct ?
Where did you get these numbers? According to the system as described you take 7-8 trades every day. Every win is +4 pips. Every loss is -32 as you put it.
For covering only one loss you need 8 wins.
  • #71
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:15am Oct 19, 2014 7:15am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} Where did you get these numbers? According to the system as described you take 7-8 trades every day. Every win is +4 pips. Every loss is -32 as you put it. For covering only one loss you need 8 wins.
Why would a loss be -32 pips ? I did not read this from threadstarter anywhere ?

Best regards
  • #72
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:17am Oct 19, 2014 7:17am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} Why would a loss be -32 pips ? I did not read this from threadstarter anywhere ? Best regards
It was a rule created by podberry for doing his calculations. According to threadstarter, there is no hard SL at all.
  • #73
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:19am Oct 19, 2014 7:19am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} It was a rule created by podberry for doing his calculations. According to threadstarter, there is no hard SL at all.

Yes that is also how i understand it you get out when the position moves against you it can be some pips like 4 as the target or it can be when the indicators have turned against your position and that is alot more pips i think.

Best regards
  • #74
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:20am Oct 19, 2014 7:20am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} Where did you get these numbers? According to the system as described you take 7-8 trades every day. Every win is +4 pips. Every loss is -32 as you put it. For covering only one loss you need 8 wins.
On the Tuesday as per DEE50's pic the system would have won 7 x 4 pips and lost 1 x 32 if you have a hard s/l of 32 pips, net gain of -4 pips, same for the Friday.

The other days would have been 8 x 4 pip winners =32 pips

Making sense now ?
  • #75
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:24am Oct 19, 2014 7:24am
Quoting podberry
{quote} On the Tuesday as per DEE50's pic the system would have won 7 x 4 pips and lost 1 x 32 if you have a hard s/l of 32 pips, net gain of -4 pips, same for the Friday. The other days would have been 8 x 4 pip winners =32 pips
It is just one week. What we should be interested in is the possible result for at least 6 months.
But even with that calculation it is very much trouble for nothing. To sit behind the charts 5 working days for 64-88 pips?
  • #76
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:27am Oct 19, 2014 7:27am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} It is just one week. What we should be interested in is the possible result for at least 6 months. But even with that calculation it is very much trouble for nothing. To sit behind charts 5 working days for 64 pips?
I agree, I just worked out the pip count for discussion, not saying it will work continuously week after week.
  • #77
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:30am Oct 19, 2014 7:30am
Quoting podberry
{quote} I agree, I just worked out the pip count for discussion, not saying it will work continuously week after week.
Good systems use RR ratio at least 1:2. You should risk less than is your target. Otherwise, your account will be killed sooner or later. Most often it is sooner
  • #78
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:30am Oct 19, 2014 7:30am
32 Pip Stop Loss. NO WAY. The thread starter does not use a stop loss. I chose 32 pips for illustration purposes "only". If you read my post I was asking the thread starter how he would minimize the potential losses for the 2 potential losing positions and I just presented 3 possible scenarios as examples.

So please get rid of the notion of a 32 pip stop loss, it is purely fictitious.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #79
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:34am Oct 19, 2014 7:34am
Quoting podberry
{quote} On the Tuesday as per DEE50's pic the system would have won 7 x 4 pips and lost 1 x 32 if you have a hard s/l of 32 pips, net gain of -4 pips, same for the Friday. The other days would have been 8 x 4 pip winners =32 pips Making sense now ?

DEE50 used the wrong pair.

GPDUSD only, he clearly stated that several times........................
  • #80
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:34am Oct 19, 2014 7:34am
Everyone should do his due dilligence when taking a trade with this system. Exits can be managed with other systems as well...
All I can say is to thank ComoxBluejay for sharing his approach.
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